The outlook for Autumn

Just trying to look at what each of the four top teams in Ireland's group has, fixture-wise, what the probability is that each team can get to where they would want to be, and what the results might be, given each team's performance in the group so far. Would be interested to hear others' thoughts or analysis. 

GB 1HughJarse wrote: Can't see Serbia winning in Vienna

That could be true but could the same not be said of Wales. If they are out of it also. Maybe you are counting on it being a derby game

Above all else, there should be a mindset in the Irish team, a real mindset, of securing 1st place in this group. It bears reminding that Ireland are currently second last in the table of second placed teams, and therefore last in the teams eligible to go to the playoffs. Thinking that second would be any way a good result is tantamount to putting the team's hopes on a knife edge. 

Wishful thinking maybe but I genuinely think we will win this group. I think we will win our next 3 games which has to be enough regardless of our result in Cardiff. 

Edited by kearney304 - 20 Jun 2017 at 8:51am

kearney304 wrote: Wishful thinking maybe but I genuinely think we will win this group. I think we will win our next 3 games which has to be enough regardless of our result in Cardiff.  I can't see how Wales won't beat Austria at home but Serbia will win away in Vienna. Wales IMO are a better side than Serbia (on their day). I'm hoping the other teams kill each other with draws and we scrape that vital 3 points in Dublin.  Forgetting Wales a second, we have a better run in that Serbia. Imagine we had Vienna and Belgrade away. MON will get us the win and we should top the group.

DangerHere wrote: kearney304 wrote: Wishful thinking maybe but I genuinely think we will win this group. I think we will win our next 3 games which has to be enough regardless of our result in Cardiff.  I can't see how Wales won't beat Austria at home but Serbia will win away in Vienna. Wales IMO are a better side than Serbia (on their day). I'm hoping the other teams kill each other with draws and we scrape that vital 3 points in Dublin.  Forgetting Wales a second, we have a better run in that Serbia. Imagine we had Vienna and Belgrade away. MON will get us the win and we should top the group.   I would like to be in this frame of mind, however after witnessing the home games against the other 2 top sides in the group (Wales and Austria) it seems to me that it isn't a case of whether or not we CAN beat Serbia but whether or not we TRY to. We didn't try to beat Wales or Austria

Mr. Snrub wrote: Hopefully the pressure is off us for the Serbia match and we are not expected to get the 3 points.  Start Wes and we have every chance of winning.

How would the pressure be off us?

At home to Serbia. The pressure will be very much on both sides

Basically impossible. The only really plausible scenario where we can finish ahead of Serbia on GD while not beating them or Wales, and keeping ourselves ahead of both Wales and Austria, is where we draw with Serbia, and beat Georgia and Moldova, and where Serbia draw against Austria.

That scenario also requires the following, in addition to winning in Georgia:
Ireland being at least four points ahead of Austria going into the final day (which happens if Austria drop points in one of their next three games - probably against Wales, Serbia or both);
Ireland being at least four points ahead of Wales (which only happens if they don't beat Austria, or if they drop points in Georgia).

There's also the scenario where Austria draw in Wales but beat Serbia. If that happens, along with the following:
Ireland beat Georgia and Moldova, draw with Serbia;
Wales beat Georgia and Moldova, draw with Austria;
Serbia draw with Ireland, lose to Austria, beat Moldova;
then Ireland would be 4 ahead of Wales and (at least) 4 head of Austria going into the last day, and three ahead of the Serbs, with GD potentially deciding the group winner if Ireland lose to Wales and Serbia beat Georgia.

HOWEVER, in *any* scenario involving the potential for GD to play a part, Serbia will have massive motivation to hockey Georgia at home in their final game. Having said that, we would presumably be aware of the potential for GD to matter while playing Moldova the game day before (i.e. winning, while hoping Serbia simultaneously drop points in Vienna), so we would have motivation to score plenty.

But the basic point is this: no matter the scenario, while playing in Cardiff on the final day, any plausible scenario on which we qualify on GD after not beating Serbia or Wales involves the Serbs not being able to score the requisite number at home to Georgia, which means we will be playing to win in any event.

There is the possibility of us qualifying on GD while not beating Wales, but chances are, it would go down to the end of the group were it to happen that way. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to go to Cardiff 4 ahead of Wales and Austria, 2 ahead of Serbia, and with a GD advantage of +3 over Serbia, knowing a draw would possibly be enough, but I don't think it's going to happen, and it definitely wouldn't be comfortable if we were drawing 0-0 in Cardiff with ten minutes to go, and Serbia 2-0 up against Georgia.


Edited by SuperDave84 - 20 Jun 2017 at 5:29pm