The outlook for Autumn
Printed From: You Boys in Green
Category: International
Forum Name: Republic Of Ireland
Forum Description: All ROI International Team forums
URL: https://forum.ybig.ie/forum_posts.asp?TID=55418
Printed Date: 27 Apr 2024 at 2:11pm
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Topic: The outlook for Autumn
Posted By: BriMurt
Subject: The outlook for Autumn
Date Posted: 19 Jun 2017 at 9:22pm
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Just trying to look at what each of the four top teams in Ireland's group has, fixture-wise, what the probability is that each team can get to where they would want to be, and what the results might be, given each team's performance in the group so far. Would be interested to hear others' thoughts or analysis. -------- Ireland --------- Current standing - 12 points (2nd) Fixtures, predicted results, final tally - Georgia (A) = Narrow win, Serbia (H) = Scoring draw, Moldova (H) = Comfortable win, Wales (A) = Nervy draw. 20 points. Crucial game - Serbia (H). Shame that Ireland didn't go two points clear so far. I think it likely that Ireland will fold under the weight of expectation surrounding this game and deliver a frustratingly cautious performance. However, I don't expect Serbia to come out all guns blazing either as they'd know that a draw in the game would likely be enough to squeak over the line in 1st place. If Ireland can't beat Georgia or Moldova, then they simply don't deserve to qualify anyway. Georgia have shown themselves to be a bit weaker this time around. How Wales will develop is anyone's guess, but completely discounting themselves at this point would be a little bit foolhardy. ----------- Serbia ----------- Current standing - 12 pts (1st) Fixtures, predicted results and final tally - Moldova (A) = Win, Ireland (A) = Draw, Austria (A) = Win, Georgia (H) = Win. 22 pts. Crucial Game - Austria (A). Austria already look demoralised, and will likely be out of the race by the time their game with Serbia comes around. I believe it presents to Serbia a slightly better chance to grab a win than away to Ireland. ----------- Wales ----------- Current standing - 8 pts Fixtures, predicted results and final tally - Austria (H) = Draw, Moldova (A) = Win, Georgia (A) = Win, Ireland (H) = Draw. 16 points Crucial Game - Austria (H). Wales cannot afford a single misstep, but most of all, they need a win to start that chain that would take them to 20 points. Anything less than a win here and their hopes hinge upon poor results elsewhere. ----------- Austria ----------- Current standing - 8 pts Fixtures, predicted results and final tally - Wales (A) = Draw, Georgia (H) = Win, Serbia (H) = Loss, Moldova (A) = Win. 15 points. Crucial Game - Wales (A). Austria are in the same boat as Wales. That first game of the Autumn is a must win for both teams if they want to have any realistic hopes of 2nd. |
Replies:
Posted By: GB 1HughJarse
Date Posted: 19 Jun 2017 at 9:26pm
| Can't see Serbia winning in Vienna |
Posted By: pre Madonna
Date Posted: 19 Jun 2017 at 9:34pm
I don't know, that Austrian team is very poor. ------------- Greed has won, big finance has won. Whatever small role elite clubs still play in the local communities from which they grew is dwarfed now by their position as global brands. |
GB 1HughJarse wrote:Posted By: BriMurt
Date Posted: 19 Jun 2017 at 10:06pm
| It's likely that the Austrians will be further demoralised come the game v. Serbia. They'll be needing a win in Cardiff, but likely will come up against a motivated Welsh side. I think they'll cancel each other out and it'll be a stalemate. From here, their lack of motivation will be met with a motivated Serbian side, which I think will be enough to net the Serbs a sneaky win. The Serbs look to be the most able team in the group by a slim margin. |
Posted By: killer kilbane
Date Posted: 19 Jun 2017 at 10:15pm
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That could be true but could the same not be said of Wales. If they are out of it also. Maybe you are counting on it being a derby game ------------- And it's come through now to mackay... and it's there |
Posted By: SuperDave84
Date Posted: 19 Jun 2017 at 10:24pm
We clearly want an Austrian win in Cardiff if it isn't a draw. It keeps Austria in it against Serbia (and a lot more than a draw does - even if it might be a double edged sword), it increases the chances of Wales being out of it before we go to Cardiff (again more than a draw does, because Wales are much more likely to win games 8 & 9 than Austria are) and it increases the chances of us winning the group with a game to spare (again an Austrian win does that more than a Welsh win, because Wales are more likely to win games 8 & 9 than Austria are, and it increases Austria's motivation against Serbia). I know the last of those stinks of wishful thinking but the least preferable result is definitely a Wales win. After that, an Austrian win has definite benefits above a draw, along with definite downsides. ------------- 
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Posted By: BriMurt
Date Posted: 19 Jun 2017 at 10:43pm
| Above all else, there should be a mindset in the Irish team, a real mindset, of securing 1st place in this group. It bears reminding that Ireland are currently second last in the table of second placed teams, and therefore last in the teams eligible to go to the playoffs. Thinking that second would be any way a good result is tantamount to putting the team's hopes on a knife edge. |
Posted By: OnTheOneRoad
Date Posted: 20 Jun 2017 at 1:48am
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I can't see us finishing lower than second, the problem is i doubt we'll finish any higher. We won't take lower than 7 points from our last four, two expected wins and then a draw against the Serbs (probably one against Wales too). I can see us matching Serbia's results until the end and then missing out on top spot on goal difference. We are gonna need a result that they don't get to win this group. ------------- No thank you Turkish......I'm sweet enough |
Posted By: kearney304
Date Posted: 20 Jun 2017 at 8:49am
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Wishful thinking maybe but I genuinely think we will win this group. I think we will win our next 3 games which has to be enough regardless of our result in Cardiff. I can't see how Wales won't beat Austria at home but Serbia will win away in Vienna. Wales IMO are a better side than Serbia (on their day). I'm hoping the other teams kill each other with draws and we scrape that vital 3 points in Dublin. Forgetting Wales a second, we have a better run in that Serbia. Imagine we had Vienna and Belgrade away. MON will get us the win and we should top the group. |
Posted By: Zinedine Kilbane 110
Date Posted: 20 Jun 2017 at 9:08am
I think Serbia will draw in Austria. I think we will draw in Wales. Its going to come down to the home game against Serbia. Win that and we top the group. Anything else and we will be 2nd. Everybody and his dog would have taken that scenario to get to a World Cup. ------------- |
Posted By: DangerHere
Date Posted: 20 Jun 2017 at 10:58am
I would like to be in this frame of mind, however after witnessing the home games against the other 2 top sides in the group (Wales and Austria) it seems to me that it isn't a case of whether or not we CAN beat Serbia but whether or not we TRY to. We didn't try to beat Wales or Austria
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Posted By: Mr. Snrub
Date Posted: 20 Jun 2017 at 1:19pm
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Hopefully the pressure is off us for the Serbia match and we are not expected to get the 3 points. Start Wes and we have every chance of winning. ------------- "Here's Robbie Keane...... yeeeessss! That is no more than Ireland deserve!" |
Posted By: ConorMac77
Date Posted: 20 Jun 2017 at 1:27pm
And I find it hard to imagine us trying to beat Serbia either, that's another game that's got 'draw' stamped all over it. I hope I'm wrong and that we're not looking back on that game in mid-November after a play-off exit thinking 'what if'.  Still, stranger things have happened - Germany, anyone...?  ------------- The nation holds it's breath...YES, WE'RE THERE!!! |
Posted By: DangerHere
Date Posted: 20 Jun 2017 at 3:07pm
Yep! 1-1 draw, 0-0 away to Wales, 2-1 away to Georgia and 3-0 at home to Moldova. 20 points and 2nd place
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Posted By: El_nino
Date Posted: 20 Jun 2017 at 4:51pm
How would the pressure be off us?  At home to Serbia. The pressure will be very much on both sides |
Posted By: BriMurt
Date Posted: 20 Jun 2017 at 5:00pm
| There's only two goals between Ireland and Serbia at the moment. The possibility hasn't even been discussed that if Ireland lashed on the goals against Moldova in Dublin, there's every possibility Ireland wouldn't even need to beat Serbia or Wales. It's not overly likely that Ireland will be able to catch Serbia on this score given that Serbia also have Moldova at home, but is it out of the question? |
Posted By: SuperDave84
Date Posted: 20 Jun 2017 at 5:23pm
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Basically impossible. The only really plausible scenario where we can finish ahead of Serbia on GD while not beating them or Wales, and keeping ourselves ahead of both Wales and Austria, is where we draw with Serbia, and beat Georgia and Moldova, and where Serbia draw against Austria. That scenario also requires the following, in addition to winning in Georgia: Ireland being at least four points ahead of Austria going into the final day (which happens if Austria drop points in one of their next three games - probably against Wales, Serbia or both); Ireland being at least four points ahead of Wales (which only happens if they don't beat Austria, or if they drop points in Georgia). There's also the scenario where Austria draw in Wales but beat Serbia. If that happens, along with the following: Ireland beat Georgia and Moldova, draw with Serbia; Wales beat Georgia and Moldova, draw with Austria; Serbia draw with Ireland, lose to Austria, beat Moldova; then Ireland would be 4 ahead of Wales and (at least) 4 head of Austria going into the last day, and three ahead of the Serbs, with GD potentially deciding the group winner if Ireland lose to Wales and Serbia beat Georgia. HOWEVER, in *any* scenario involving the potential for GD to play a part, Serbia will have massive motivation to hockey Georgia at home in their final game. Having said that, we would presumably be aware of the potential for GD to matter while playing Moldova the game day before (i.e. winning, while hoping Serbia simultaneously drop points in Vienna), so we would have motivation to score plenty. But the basic point is this: no matter the scenario, while playing in Cardiff on the final day, any plausible scenario on which we qualify on GD after not beating Serbia or Wales involves the Serbs not being able to score the requisite number at home to Georgia, which means we will be playing to win in any event. There is the possibility of us qualifying on GD while not beating Wales, but chances are, it would go down to the end of the group were it to happen that way. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to go to Cardiff 4 ahead of Wales and Austria, 2 ahead of Serbia, and with a GD advantage of +3 over Serbia, knowing a draw would possibly be enough, but I don't think it's going to happen, and it definitely wouldn't be comfortable if we were drawing 0-0 in Cardiff with ten minutes to go, and Serbia 2-0 up against Georgia. -------------
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Posted By: irishmufc
Date Posted: 20 Jun 2017 at 6:45pm
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Can we not just merge this with the group d thread? ------------- Wings? They're only the band The Beatles could have been. |
Posted By: deise316
Date Posted: 21 Jun 2017 at 12:29am
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I thought this was some kind of weather forecast thread. Mainly dry, average temperature 12 degrees, some showers.  ------------- Picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue..... |
Posted By: kearney304
Date Posted: 21 Jun 2017 at 8:35am
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