The Man City Thread*******

Recency bias. The two he won were when he the gods of fortune shone on his in a ridiculous way.

Being knocked out on away goals by Monaco in the last 16 isn't bad luck. Being beaten 5-1 on aggregate against Barca with 31 minutes to go isn't bad luck (even if they did pull 2 back). Losing 4-0 in a first leg of a semi final against Real Madrid isn't bad luck. Losing 5-1 on aggregate against a team who you'd finished above in the league for each of the last eight seasons isn't bad luck. The only one that is bad luck is the Atletico Madrid one in 2016 and even then, he has to take some blame for the fact his Bayern side couldn't score in Madrid.

In contrast, the two times he won it, one was massively assisted by a totally undeserved red card against van Persie and an inexplicable miss from Lord Bendtner and the other was massively assisted by some of the most bizarre refereeing ever in the Chelsea semi final and a late, totally undeserved, winner.

I'll give credit for one proper bad luck miss though, and that's the 2010 semi final against Inter, when they dominated. The only reason they lost was the Eyjafjallajokull volcanic ash cloud meant they had to travel overnight by bus to Milan for the semi final and they lost 3-1 in the first leg, taking the lead then visibly tiring to concede twice in the second half. Then again, even that could have been avoided if they had taken the direct overnight Barcelona to Milan train (it wasn't cancelled til 2011 or 2012, iirc, and it was definitely running at the time). If they'd done that, maybe they would have got a better night's sleep and not faded so badly in the second half.

I think I acknowledged that when I mentioned recency bias. I also said that "The third season [at City], much like the third season at Bayern, was the only one where you can make an argument that he came close."

He was unlucky against Spurs but equally you can argue that it should never have come to pass; City were and are the better side yet failed over both games against Spurs. The last minute goal being disallowed was unfortunate but the flip side is that with the team he had, and the team he was up against, it should never have come down to relying on a last minute goal.

On the Chelsea one, I'm not accepting that. Chelsea had four penalty decisions turned down, at least two of them stronger than 50/50, and despite all of Barcelona's possession, they only had one shot on target (from which they scored) and again it was a last minute goal.

Sid: sorry, you're right on the Real point, my bad.

Pep has had some bad luck but he had magical luck in one of the years he won, decent luck in the other and hasn't even made a final otherwise, despite the teams he has managed.

Pep: UCL: Uefa's Champion Loser.