How confident are you about this campaign? |
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TonyNotJack
Liam Brady Joined: 16 Oct 2015 Status: Offline Points: 2491 |
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These playoffs will be much harder than the traditional ones. Probably only a 25% chance at best of qualifying. It's important that Mick gets that fact home to the players. It makes going for it in the big home matches a better option than falling back on the playoff chance.
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gspain
Ray Houghton Joined: 21 Apr 2010 Status: Offline Points: 4688 |
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We cannot meet Scotland as some have stated. It is virtually impossible for us to meet Northern Ireland in a semi final. However there is a very good chance we'd meet in a final if we both won our semis. |
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SuperDave84
Robbie Keane ooh Thomas, how could you do this to me! Joined: 26 Aug 2011 Location: Far Fungannon Status: Offline Points: 21384 |
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Some people seem to be under a misapprehension as to how the playoffs work. It is not the case that the four best teams in League B who have not qualified are therefore in the League B playoffs. They could equally end up in the League A playoffs. There are two phases: the first is selection of the teams to compete and the second is the draw. That starts with League D: the four best teams in League D are selected for the playoffs: Then League C. Then League B. Then League A. However, if there are fewer than four unqualified teams in any league, then the next best team in the overall ranking is selected, subject to the rule that a group winner from a lower league cannot face an opponent from a higher league. A group runner up absolutely can face a team from a higher division. The key fact, though, is that after the selection of the teams, a draw takes place, if necessary, to allocate teams to each individual path. Also, the seeding is such that the semi finals are based on Nations League ranking: 1v4 and 2v3. That is, for the sake of argument, if we play the North as 2v3, we are guaranteed to be at home. If we are seeded 3 or 4, however, we are guaranteed to be away to whoever is ranked 1 or 2. The other primary condition is that if there are four teams from
League B, there has to be a playoff path composed solely from League B
teams.... which means if there are at least four from there, the League A
teams will possibly be in playoffs with League C teams. Say, for sake of argument, 2 League A teams do not qualify automatically and 5 League B teams do not qualify automatically (none being group winners), there were then be a draw with those 7 teams and the 1 League C team to draw the two playoff paths... with 4 League B teams in the League B playoffs, and 2 League A teams, 1 League B teams and 1 League C team in the League A playoffs, subject to the proviso that that League B team could not be a League B group winner. Another point is this (from the euro 2020 regulations): "additional conditions may be applied, subject to approval by the UEFA Executive Committee, including seeding principles and the possibility of final tournament host associations having to be drawn into different paths" ... that means there could be no draw if, for example, both ourselves and Germany (or the Netherlands) were in the playoffs, as we would have to be allocated a different path to them. The main point I'm making is this: it's not the case that the best four League B teams automatically go into the League B playoffs, with the following teams in the League A playoffs. There will be some manner of a draw, depending on who exactly is there and who exactly is a host.
Edited by SuperDave84 - 13 Jun 2019 at 5:00pm |
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LO SCIENZIATO
Liam Brady Fucknut Of The Year Joined: 24 Aug 2018 Status: Offline Points: 1520 |
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so we are rightly f**ked in a playoff full stop going buy all of the above. not a chance under thick Mick would we have a chance against those teams
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SuperDave84
Robbie Keane ooh Thomas, how could you do this to me! Joined: 26 Aug 2011 Location: Far Fungannon Status: Offline Points: 21384 |
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Basically, yeah. The playoffs will be tough and will probably involve having to win away from home to a higher ranked League B side. We'd better qualify automatically, so.
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Strazdas
Jack Charlton Joined: 17 Nov 2014 Status: Offline Points: 5485 |
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We shouldn't even be thinking of a play off spot. The sole aim should be to go for automatic qualification - the play offs are too risky
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Bob Hoskins
Moderator Group Joined: 29 Jul 2007 Status: Offline Points: 20175 |
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f**k
Until a few days ago I'd assumed we'd have a play off two legs and that was it. But winning away!!! And then another game after that. |
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Romario 2016: And the ticket mafia gets caught! Well, four years ago I had already told the government.
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cildaratown
Liam Brady killdare town Joined: 11 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 1390 |
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Was feeling confident about the playoffs until teams like Wales made it it clear that they weren't going to qualify automatically. Was hoping for an easier playoff path.
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Drumcondra 69er
Jack Charlton Joined: 07 Oct 2009 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 7124 |
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Absolute madness trying to predict anything at this stage of the campaign.
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cliffrichard
Liam Brady Joined: 16 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 1246 |
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Be grand, we'll bate the Swiss and Danes at home, Georgia away and draw with the Swiss in Geneva. Top of the group. Oxo.
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pre Madonna
Robbie Keane I am MALDING Joined: 30 Nov 2014 Location: Trumpton Status: Offline Points: 44659 |
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I predict we won't qualify, Bisto.
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t_rAndy
Robbie Keane Joined: 06 Feb 2008 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 26267 |
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It's a good think there are not as many places up for grabs in the world cup qualifying, it should be more straight forward to define who gets play off spots and we wont spend years trying to figure it out
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irishmufc
Robbie Keane I love Vulvas Joined: 09 Aug 2011 Location: Dublin Status: Offline Points: 25116 |
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You sound like something from Scooby Doo ffs.
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Wings? They're only the band The Beatles could have been.
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ConorMac77
Ray Houghton Joined: 22 Apr 2015 Location: Newry Status: Online Points: 3695 |
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Can you blame him though, after our last 2 games there? I know we couldn't possibly play as badly as we did the last time and we've learned how to string more than 2 passes together which is already an upgrade on that dire display but that away match still has banana skin written all over it.
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The nation holds it's breath...YES, WE'RE THERE!!!
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Donegalman
Liam Brady Joined: 16 Jun 2015 Location: Donegal Status: Offline Points: 1650 |
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Why do you bother following the team with an attitude like that? Of course things have changed. We are set up far better than under O Neill and we actually tried to play against Denmark and Georgia. We had 28% possession in the playoff against Denmark away, only 24% in the Nations league game and 31% away to Georgia and 44% at home. That shows how bad things were and we have definitely changed under Mick. Gibraltar set up with no interest in scoring themselves but trying to stop us from scoring the lastnight.
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pre Madonna
Robbie Keane I am MALDING Joined: 30 Nov 2014 Location: Trumpton Status: Offline Points: 44659 |
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So to follow the team you have to have 100% faith in them? I should have given up in 1993 then!
You can want a team to win while considering it unlikely. I don’t think we have a hope of qualifying, but I want us to win the thing out.
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Maccatacca
Ray Houghton Joined: 01 Jun 2016 Status: Offline Points: 4217 |
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If you look at the stats from O'Neill's games against Denmark when compared to McCarthy's then there does seem to be reason for slight optimism. I haven't even included the 5-1 play-off defeat because the stats are absolutely appalling and that was a bit of a shock result. Under O'Neill World Cup play-off Denmark 0-0 IrelandPossession: Denmark 72% Ireland 28% Shots: Denmark 14 Ireland 8 Shots on target: Denmark 5 Ireland 2 Nations League Ireland 0-0 Denmark Possession: Ireland 34% Denmark 66% Shots: Ireland 3 Denmark 15 Shots on target Ireland 1 Denmark 3 Nations League Denmark 0-0 Ireland Possession: Denmark 76% Ireland 24% Shots: Denmark 26 Ireland 3 Shots on target: Denmark 1 Ireland 0. Under McCarthy Euro qualifier Denmark 0-0 Ireland. Possession: Denmark 62% Ireland 38%. Shots: Denmark 18 Ireland 7 Shots on target: Denmark 3 Ireland 4. Denmark had a decent amount of chances in the recent qualifier but I think as it was a much more open game then they were always going to have more clear cut chances than under O'Neill. We actually finished the game with more shots on target and McClean had a great chance to win the match at the end. Around the 40% mark is a respectable level of possession away to a superior team too. McCarthy's Ireland have had four shots on target in one game against Denmark, in the three 0-0 draws we managed just 3 shots on target altogether. I do recall us having a few decent chances in the 5-1 drubbing but the majority of the stats from that game make for further negative reading for O'Neill vs McCarthy. I'm not confident about this campaign, but we have definitely enjoyed a minor improvement under Mick and feel we'll be in contention going into the last game.
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flaghunter
Kevin Kilbane Joined: 11 Nov 2014 Status: Offline Points: 329 |
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Can you link to where you got this info SD? I was hoping we would be the 5th best ranked non-qualified side in league B and be bunched in with the League C teams (and maybe one league A) - it seems it doesn't work like that. It's very unlikely that there will be less than 4 teams from League B in the playoff - assuming all top seeds qualify, there will be one of: Denmark / Ourselves Wales / Slovakia Turkey (big assumption) N Ireland with a few other League B teams in trouble at the moment. So if 5 League B teams don't qualify, only one is drawn to escape from the League B playoffs. If 6 don't qualify then 2 are drawn to escape these playoffs into easier ones, etc. And with 3rd and 4th in line to move up from league C being Hungary and Romania (both hosts), we would be left in league B with the non hosts if another host goes into the play offs. Say it's League A - Iceland League B - Bosnia, Sweden, Slovakia, Ourselves, Northies League C - 4 Group Winners, Bulgaria and Israel This would mean Bosnia and Sweden stay in League B as group winners, and there is a draw between the other 3 sides in League B, with only one escaping it as there must be a League B playoff. If 3 or less sides from League B including ourselves don't qualify, it would be one of Slovakia / Wales, and probably the North with ourselves. I imagine this would then be an open draw with us 3, Iceland, Bulgaria, Israel, Hungary and Romania. We would unfortunately be separated from Hungary and Romania, and be in a path 3 of the other 5. Avoiding both Iceland and Slovakia/Wales in our path would leave us with a home semi final that we should expect to win. This is all of course assuming SD is correct as usual.
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