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Russian Invasion of Ukraine
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Roy Keane
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Geo-political complications don’t impact the sovereign nature of Ukraine and it’s capacities to make decisions on its own behalf, in spite of a large post-imperial entity attempting to strongarm an outcome using its own muscle and threats.

Edited by Het-field - 15 Feb 2022 at 12:26pm
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Originally posted by Het-field Het-field wrote:

The “NATO expansion” mantra is a nonsense with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania all members for years. And the situation may be different if Belarus wasn’t a ‘soft’ satellite state which is overwhelmingly pro Russia. Ukraine is also a sovereign state, which in turn is entitled not to be manipulated through power play by it larger neighbour.

 

Ukraine is more geographically strategic for Russia (access to the Black Sea, home of their strategically important Black Sea Fleet, and has a large southern border with Russia) compared to Estonia and Latvia and Russia has historically been invaded through Ukraine and Belarus
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Roy Keane
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But that can simply be explained as post war paranoia, and no reason for them to advance as they did in 2014, or set up in the hostile fashion that they have at the moment.
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It might not matter to governments in the West, but for Russia it's an existential threat. NATO assurances aren't going to change that viewpoint, especially considering they've ignored any assurances they gave of expanding eastwards since German reunification. It fuels their distrust of the West
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Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

Ukraine will not be elected into NATO. USA and UK will not spill a drop of their own forces' blood in pursuit of such an expansion after the experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan. The Russian government is corrupt, authoritarian and dangerous but Ukraine is divided and the geo-politics of the region are complicated and not well understood in the West. There is currently a lot of posturing going on and who knows what will transpire. Probably a deal to be done before much happens.
Correct, if Ukraine was in Nato in 2014, Nato would have been duty-bound to engage in a war to defend a member. It suited everyone to let that one slip
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Originally posted by Het-field Het-field wrote:

But that can simply be explained as post war paranoia, and no reason for them to advance as they did in 2014, or set up in the hostile fashion that they have at the moment.
In 1600's Poland invaded Russia
In 1700's Sweden invaded Russia
In 1800's France invaded Russia
in 1900's Germany invaded Russia

Now in 2000's they see the west encroaching on Russia. You can see why they're paranoid.


Edited by Shedite - 15 Feb 2022 at 1:21pm
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Roy Keane
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But there is a difference been “go it alone” nations invading and sovereign nations joining international defence organisations in a post WW2 landscape.

But what makes sense is Putin and co leveraging that to garner support for their administration in a sort of “us against the world” mentality, while also willingly provoking the west.
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Invasion threat looks to be over at this point. 

Putin will be back for more soon no doubt as he achieved his goal of pissing off the entire world with these actions. 
Here we go again
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Roy Keane
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And if reports are correct it’s not even a full withdrawal, just a retreat, with much left behind.

It’s be an interesting “war game” which I think has also smoked out geo-political mentalities and all to Putin’s benefit.
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Originally posted by Het-field Het-field wrote:

And if reports are correct it’s not even a full withdrawal, just a retreat, with much left behind.

It’s be an interesting “war game” which I think has also smoked out geo-political mentalities and all to Putin’s benefit.
barely a retreat - just moving assets around.
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A covert deal to keep Ukraine out of NATO may well have been done by now. Paranoia is a factor in this drama just as it was when Kennedy reacted to the installation of Soviet nuclear missiles in neighbouring Cuba back in the 60s-understandably so. One major weakness re sanctions threatened by the West is that Putin allies are deeply integrated into the UK and enmeshed within Conservative Party power structures. London grad, as the capital is widely dubbed, is awash with laundered Russian money.
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Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

A covert deal to keep Ukraine out of NATO may well have been done by now. Paranoia is a factor in this drama just as it was when Kennedy reacted to the installation of Soviet nuclear missiles in neighbouring Cuba back in the 60s-understandably so. One major weakness re sanctions threatened by the West is that Putin allies are deeply integrated into the UK and enmeshed within Conservative Party power structures. London grad, as the capital is widely dubbed, is awash with laundered Russian money.

As is Dublin. 118bn was funnelled from Ireland to Russia between 2005 and 2017.
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Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

A covert deal to keep Ukraine out of NATO may well have been done by now. Paranoia is a factor in this drama just as it was when Kennedy reacted to the installation of Soviet nuclear missiles in neighbouring Cuba back in the 60s-understandably so. One major weakness re sanctions threatened by the West is that Putin allies are deeply integrated into the UK and enmeshed within Conservative Party power structures. London grad, as the capital is widely dubbed, is awash with laundered Russian money.

The globalisation and moving of assets into real estate all around the world means it would make another world war less likely. There wouldn't be a lot of Russians happy about bombing their own piggy banks in London. 
It would damage this forums' reputation
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Originally posted by t_rAndy t_rAndy wrote:

It is ridiculous how much Europe and US are stirring the pot on this one. It's coming from western politics and media versus Ukraine and Russia. 

Ukraine have constantly called for calm. 
Russia have said they are not going to invade. 
It's reported as no more than a military exercise in Russia. 

At the end of the day, in my opinion it's a show of force, Russia don't want NATO to expand further and be within 500km of Moscow. Which is for me understandable. Russia are generally the ones who have been invaded in past wars and have suffered enormously. 
They just want to protect their country and having this major military force that has been expanding eastwards the past decades that would be within 500km of the capital if they get Ukraine, that is a problem that is going to stoke tensions. Having the buffer of Eastern Europe is a good thing in my opinion and you can definitely argue that it is NATO's expansion eastwards which is actually the act of aggression

We were giving out about a military exercise 250 miles off Cork. Imagine the next time it was 200 miles and the next time after that 50 miles. That's basically what has been happening to Russia with NATO's expansion efforts.



They have 6k nukes. They don't need to sh*t anymore to protect their borders. This isn't the medieval times. 
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They're up to something. Air raid sirens blaring in Donetsk and the local tin pot leader has ordered the evacuation of all Russian civilians (roughly 2 million) in the region back to Russia. The tin pot leader next door in luhansk is doing the same. 
"One of the dominant facts in English life during the past three quarters of a century has been the decay of ability in the ruling class." Orwell, 1942.
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https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-putin-may-be-a-thug-but-he-does-have-a-point-1.4804229

I think O'Toole is spot on here. 
Wings? They're only the band The Beatles could have been.
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Originally posted by irishmufc irishmufc wrote:

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-putin-may-be-a-thug-but-he-does-have-a-point-1.4804229 - https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-putin-may-be-a-thug-but-he-does-have-a-point-1.4804229

I think O'Toole is spot on here. 
Putin does not have a point. Putin is a dictator, mafia don and a war criminal who wants to destroy democracy everywhere he can.
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Originally posted by More Anne More Anne wrote:

Originally posted by irishmufc irishmufc wrote:

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-putin-may-be-a-thug-but-he-does-have-a-point-1.4804229 - https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-putin-may-be-a-thug-but-he-does-have-a-point-1.4804229

I think O'Toole is spot on here. 
Putin does not have a point. Putin is a dictator, mafia don and a war criminal who wants to destroy democracy everywhere he can.

I'm under no illusions about Putin but even if you had a reformist moderate like Gorbachov in power, the Russians would still have legitimate concerns about the expansion of a military bloc right up to their borders. 

I know Nato expansion isn't the same threat as Napoleon or Hitler on the march in Russia but you have to acknowledge their history where they have been invaded  and try and have some degree of empathy for their position. 

Any Russian leader no matter how progressive, moderate or conservative they might be would have the same concerns especially in regards to Nato expansion in bordering countries. 
Wings? They're only the band The Beatles could have been.
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