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Mr. Snrub View Drop Down
Liam Brady
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Originally posted by You Tell Me You Tell Me wrote:

Originally posted by xRedmanLFCx xRedmanLFCx wrote:

Originally posted by AonSceal19 AonSceal19 wrote:

https://twitter.com/dalejohnsonespn/status/1572243222772207619?s=46&t=yb0-9Ohpeu-oVFZHt-ta_Q

Good thread about Euro 2024 qualifying 


32 teams in Nations League A & B combined. 28 of those max will have a chance of qualifying. So at least 4 teams will have no chance. If you finish last in Nations League B you're basically gone (no playoff). If you finish 3rd, you're hoping for a good seeding and plenty Nations League B teams to qualify directly (to get a playoff). 

Realistically 27 max with one of the playoff places now given to a League D team. So the worst League B third placed team is also now gone from the playoffs. But then there's lower ranked teams that might automatically qualify and this would have the knock-on effect of taking more playoff places from third placed League B teams - Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania. Even Sweden - they may finish as a lower ranked third placed team but then they'll probably qualify automatically so that's another spot gone. Could easily just end up being only the best League B third placed team that makes the playoffs, or no third placed team at all.

So coming second in the Nations League group is becoming crucial here.

How about we come 2nd in the NL and then finish 2nd in our Euro 24 group. Can't take any more playoff heartbreak. The last time we qualified automatically from a group was World Cup 94 Confused

But we're well capable of finish 2nd in qualifying - achieved in '96, '98, '00, '02, '10, '12, '18


Edited by Mr. Snrub - 21 Sep 2022 at 11:30am
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Originally posted by You Tell Me You Tell Me wrote:

Originally posted by xRedmanLFCx xRedmanLFCx wrote:

Originally posted by AonSceal19 AonSceal19 wrote:

https://twitter.com/dalejohnsonespn/status/1572243222772207619?s=46&t=yb0-9Ohpeu-oVFZHt-ta_Q

Good thread about Euro 2024 qualifying 


32 teams in Nations League A & B combined. 28 of those max will have a chance of qualifying. So at least 4 teams will have no chance. If you finish last in Nations League B you're basically gone (no playoff). If you finish 3rd, you're hoping for a good seeding and plenty Nations League B teams to qualify directly (to get a playoff). 

Realistically 27 max with one of the playoff places now given to a League D team. So the worst League B third placed team is also now gone from the playoffs. But then there's lower ranked teams that might automatically qualify and this would have the knock-on effect of taking more playoff places from third placed League B teams - Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania. Even Sweden - they may finish as a lower ranked third placed team but then they'll probably qualify automatically so that's another spot gone. Could easily just end up being only the best League B third placed team that makes the playoffs, or no third placed team at all.

So coming second in the Nations League group is becoming crucial here.

The top 8 ranked teams in Nations League group B will get into a playoff. Of the 16 teams, we can assume some of them will qualify automatically. Let's say 4 teams. That leaves 12 not qualified from group B (16-4). The top 8 of those 12 will make a playoff. As long as you don't finish last (there'll be 4 teams who finish last), you have a decent chance of a playoff. I don't think a 3rd placed team qualifying directly has much of a negative impact on your chances of a playoff tbh. 

Edit: 'You Tell Me' is correct, only 4 League B teams can make the playoff. 8 teams would be including League A teams, which is no good to us. But we still want as many teams as possible from League B to qualify directly, to leave less opponents in our way of making the playoff spots. 


Edited by xRedmanLFCx - 21 Sep 2022 at 11:57am
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Jack Charlton
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Originally posted by Mr. Snrub Mr. Snrub wrote:

Originally posted by You Tell Me You Tell Me wrote:

Originally posted by xRedmanLFCx xRedmanLFCx wrote:

Originally posted by AonSceal19 AonSceal19 wrote:

https://twitter.com/dalejohnsonespn/status/1572243222772207619?s=46&t=yb0-9Ohpeu-oVFZHt-ta_Q

Good thread about Euro 2024 qualifying 


32 teams in Nations League A & B combined. 28 of those max will have a chance of qualifying. So at least 4 teams will have no chance. If you finish last in Nations League B you're basically gone (no playoff). If you finish 3rd, you're hoping for a good seeding and plenty Nations League B teams to qualify directly (to get a playoff). 

Realistically 27 max with one of the playoff places now given to a League D team. So the worst League B third placed team is also now gone from the playoffs. But then there's lower ranked teams that might automatically qualify and this would have the knock-on effect of taking more playoff places from third placed League B teams - Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania. Even Sweden - they may finish as a lower ranked third placed team but then they'll probably qualify automatically so that's another spot gone. Could easily just end up being only the best League B third placed team that makes the playoffs, or no third placed team at all.

So coming second in the Nations League group is becoming crucial here.

How about we come 2nd in the NL and then finish 2nd in our Euro 24 group. Can't take any more playoff heartbreak. The last time we qualified automatically from a group was World Cup 94 Confused

But we're well capable of finish 2nd in qualifying - achieved in '96, '98, '00, '02, '10, '12, '18

Absolutely, but you really want to have the playoffs to fall back on, especially as the current seedings look like throwing up some nightmare qualification groups for third seed teams like us.

Edited by You Tell Me - 21 Sep 2022 at 11:32am
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Jack Charlton
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Originally posted by xRedmanLFCx xRedmanLFCx wrote:

Originally posted by You Tell Me You Tell Me wrote:

Originally posted by xRedmanLFCx xRedmanLFCx wrote:

Originally posted by AonSceal19 AonSceal19 wrote:

https://twitter.com/dalejohnsonespn/status/1572243222772207619?s=46&t=yb0-9Ohpeu-oVFZHt-ta_Q

Good thread about Euro 2024 qualifying 


32 teams in Nations League A & B combined. 28 of those max will have a chance of qualifying. So at least 4 teams will have no chance. If you finish last in Nations League B you're basically gone (no playoff). If you finish 3rd, you're hoping for a good seeding and plenty Nations League B teams to qualify directly (to get a playoff). 

Realistically 27 max with one of the playoff places now given to a League D team. So the worst League B third placed team is also now gone from the playoffs. But then there's lower ranked teams that might automatically qualify and this would have the knock-on effect of taking more playoff places from third placed League B teams - Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania. Even Sweden - they may finish as a lower ranked third placed team but then they'll probably qualify automatically so that's another spot gone. Could easily just end up being only the best League B third placed team that makes the playoffs, or no third placed team at all.

So coming second in the Nations League group is becoming crucial here.

The top 8 ranked teams in Nations League group B will get into a playoff. Of the 16 teams, we can assume some of them will qualify automatically. Let's say 4 teams. That leaves 12 not qualified from group B (16-4). The top 8 of those 12 will make a playoff. As long as you don't finish last (there'll be 4 teams who finish last), you have a decent chance of a playoff. I don't think a 3rd placed team qualifying directly has much of a negative impact on your chances of a playoff tbh. 

Pretty sure the bit in bold is wrong, or extremely optimistic at best. Only four guaranteed playoff spots from group B, so even if four B teams qualify automatically that doesn't help much if you're third in the Nations League group. You'd be out of the playoffs.
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Kevin Kilbane
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Huge blow about League A spots going to League D.
Is there official confirmation of this anywhere?
UEFA announcing the format half way through the competition ffs!

I posted this after the last set of games - permutations for us to get second and/or be second seeds:

Very unlikely we will catch Ukraine now - we would need to win both our games and they can get a maximum of 2 points from 3 games.

To finish second:
If we beat Armenia and draw with the Scots, we need the Scots to get no more than 1 point from their 2 games Vs Ukraine.
If we win both games we need the Scots not to win both games Vs Ukraine.

If we do finish second, only the best placed second place side will be a second seed if we assume results vs bottom team are discounted.
So we will have either 5 or 7 points in the above scenarios, after discounting Armenia results, and assuming they finish bottom.
Would have to see how the other groups lie then going into final set of games.
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Davey Langan
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Originally posted by You Tell Me You Tell Me wrote:

Originally posted by xRedmanLFCx xRedmanLFCx wrote:

Originally posted by You Tell Me You Tell Me wrote:

Originally posted by xRedmanLFCx xRedmanLFCx wrote:

Originally posted by AonSceal19 AonSceal19 wrote:

https://twitter.com/dalejohnsonespn/status/1572243222772207619?s=46&t=yb0-9Ohpeu-oVFZHt-ta_Q

Good thread about Euro 2024 qualifying 


32 teams in Nations League A & B combined. 28 of those max will have a chance of qualifying. So at least 4 teams will have no chance. If you finish last in Nations League B you're basically gone (no playoff). If you finish 3rd, you're hoping for a good seeding and plenty Nations League B teams to qualify directly (to get a playoff). 

Realistically 27 max with one of the playoff places now given to a League D team. So the worst League B third placed team is also now gone from the playoffs. But then there's lower ranked teams that might automatically qualify and this would have the knock-on effect of taking more playoff places from third placed League B teams - Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania. Even Sweden - they may finish as a lower ranked third placed team but then they'll probably qualify automatically so that's another spot gone. Could easily just end up being only the best League B third placed team that makes the playoffs, or no third placed team at all.

So coming second in the Nations League group is becoming crucial here.

The top 8 ranked teams in Nations League group B will get into a playoff. Of the 16 teams, we can assume some of them will qualify automatically. Let's say 4 teams. That leaves 12 not qualified from group B (16-4). The top 8 of those 12 will make a playoff. As long as you don't finish last (there'll be 4 teams who finish last), you have a decent chance of a playoff. I don't think a 3rd placed team qualifying directly has much of a negative impact on your chances of a playoff tbh. 

Pretty sure the bit in bold is wrong, or extremely optimistic at best. Only four guaranteed playoff spots from group B, so even if four B teams qualify automatically that doesn't help much if you're third in the Nations League group. You'd be out of the playoffs.
You're correct. My mistake.
"We will be galvanised and motivated, and we will bring thousands to this tournament." - MON
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Jack Charlton
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Originally posted by flaghunter flaghunter wrote:

Huge blow about League A spots going to League D.
Is there official confirmation of this anywhere?
UEFA announcing the format half way through the competition ffs!

I posted this after the last set of games - permutations for us to get second and/or be second seeds:

Very unlikely we will catch Ukraine now - we would need to win both our games and they can get a maximum of 2 points from 3 games.

To finish second:
If we beat Armenia and draw with the Scots, we need the Scots to get no more than 1 point from their 2 games Vs Ukraine.
If we win both games we need the Scots not to win both games Vs Ukraine.

If we do finish second, only the best placed second place side will be a second seed if we assume results vs bottom team are discounted.
So we will have either 5 or 7 points in the above scenarios, after discounting Armenia results, and assuming they finish bottom.
Would have to see how the other groups lie then going into final set of games.

It seems to just be one playoff spot for the best ranked League D team (likely Latvia or Estonia who will then get blown away in the playoffs at that level). But that's still a spot taken from a third placed League B team so it's a blow to us unless we can overtake Scotland for second. That would all but guarantee us a playoff place. A playoff from a third place finish is not looking very likely at this point, unless maybe for the best ranked third placed team.


Edited by You Tell Me - 21 Sep 2022 at 12:17pm
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Jack Charlton
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Originally posted by flaghunter flaghunter wrote:

Huge blow about League A spots going to League D.
Is there official confirmation of this anywhere?
UEFA announcing the format half way through the competition ffs!



Yes, on the UEFA website:


"If fewer than four teams from one league enter the play-offs, the first available slot is allocated to the best-ranked group winner of League D in the overall 2022/23 UEFA Nations League rankings (see Regulations of the UEFA Nations League), unless it has already qualified for the final tournament. The remaining slots are then allocated to the best-ranked of the teams that have not already qualified for the final tournament on the basis of the overall 2022/23 UEFA Nations League rankings, subject to the restriction that group winners of Leagues A, B and C cannot be in a play-off path with higher-ranked teams."
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Its a mess and its illogical. Well done UEFA Clap
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My take away is that we will more than likely have to finish top two to qualify directly from our group .
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Assuming the top 20 ranked by NL qualify automatically,.it leaves 7 League B teams a playoff, 4 League C and one League D.
So the 3 best 3rd place would get a playoff.
Each of the top 20 that dont qualify shaves a playoff spot from the lowest ranked side from League B. 
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oops.

Edited by Fozz - 21 Sep 2022 at 4:21pm
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I'm guessing we want a draw tonight between Ukraine and Scotland ?

A Ukraine win more or less means they will top the group 
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Originally posted by Healy52003 Healy52003 wrote:

I'm guessing we want a draw tonight between Ukraine and Scotland ?

A Ukraine win more or less means they will top the group 
There is next to no chance of us topping the group. We’d need Armenia to beat Ukraine for a start.

Ukraine all the way tonight 
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Originally posted by Healy52003 Healy52003 wrote:

I'm guessing we want a draw tonight between Ukraine and Scotland ?

A Ukraine win more or less means they will top the group 

A Ukraine win would probably be better, we're not going to win the group anyway. But a draw would also be OK as it would make it less likely that the second Ukraine v Scotland game would be a dead rubber with Ukraine already through and then rotating the squad.
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Originally posted by You Tell Me You Tell Me wrote:

Originally posted by Healy52003 Healy52003 wrote:

I'm guessing we want a draw tonight between Ukraine and Scotland ?

A Ukraine win more or less means they will top the group 

A Ukraine win would probably be better, we're not going to win the group anyway. But a draw would also be OK as it would make it less likely that the second Ukraine v Scotland game would be a dead rubber with Ukraine already through and then rotating the squad.

If tonight is a draw, and we draw on Saturday, and Ukraine beat Armenia on Saturday, it'll mean that a draw between Ukraine v Scotland in the last group game would see Ukraine top the group and Scotland finish 2nd and Ireland 3rd. So quite likely in this situation that Ukraine v Scotland would be a draw as it would suit both teams. So ideally we need a Ukrainian win tonight, but a draw isn't the end of the world. 

If Scotland win tonight we HAVE to beat them on Saturday or we'll finish 3rd at best. 
"We will be galvanised and motivated, and we will bring thousands to this tournament." - MON
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A good win for Ukraine tonight please, where they run the legs off the Scots so they're nice and tired for Saturday.
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Very open game this.... Scotland look really up for it
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