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2022 World Cup - Permutations - see page 17

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Roberto_Carlow View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Roberto_Carlow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2020 at 12:09pm
Originally posted by Dots1982 Dots1982 wrote:

Originally posted by Roberto_Carlow Roberto_Carlow wrote:

Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Originally posted by Roberto_Carlow Roberto_Carlow wrote:

Is there really much difference for us being in pot 2 or 3 looking at the teams? Seems pretty much the same level of quality pretty much accross both pots.

Yes, there's a pretty big difference between Switzerland and Greece

Its hardly Brazil and Andorra. 

We drew at home and lost away against Switzerland last time out. I'd expect pretty much the same outcome against Greece.

Greece are ranked 54th in the world and the Swiss are ranked 16th. So yeah, no big deal.

 
Serbia are ranked well above Finland, yet Finland beat us with ease home and away, and Serbia got knocked out at home to a very average Scotland team.

So yeah, not really much of a difference.


Edited by Roberto_Carlow - 13 Nov 2020 at 12:12pm
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Jimmy Raggatip View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jimmy Raggatip Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2020 at 12:44pm
Originally posted by Roberto_Carlow Roberto_Carlow wrote:


 
Serbia are ranked well above Finland, yet Finland beat us with ease home and away, and Serbia got knocked out at home to a very average Scotland team.

So yeah, not really much of a difference.

a very simplistic look at things. We were favourites at home to Finland and probably would be at home to Greece. 

We would not be favourites in either game against the Swiss in fact we'd struggle to be favourites against any of the pot 2 teams
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote belt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2020 at 12:52pm
Originally posted by RobsYourUncle RobsYourUncle wrote:

Originally posted by belt belt wrote:

Best possible:

Croatia/Denmark
Wales
Ireland
Luxembourg
Andorra
San Marino


Not sure I agree this is the best case scenario. None of these will take points off of the Pot 1+2 teams, which we'll probably need. Otherwise we're going to have to win a game or two against the top teams ourselves.

Would be more comfortable in a group with half decent Pot 4/5 teams who might nick a point here and there, could make all the difference. 


Ah we can't keep relying on just trying to draw our way to tournaments and hope for favours like McCarthy was at.

If 4 points off Wales was needed to guarantee a play-off, would you not take it? I'd bite your hand off as a wise man used to say.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote belt Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2020 at 12:54pm
Originally posted by Dots1982 Dots1982 wrote:

Originally posted by Roberto_Carlow Roberto_Carlow wrote:

Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Originally posted by Roberto_Carlow Roberto_Carlow wrote:

Is there really much difference for us being in pot 2 or 3 looking at the teams? Seems pretty much the same level of quality pretty much accross both pots.


Yes, there's a pretty big difference between Switzerland and Greece


Its hardly Brazil and Andorra. 

We drew at home and lost away against Switzerland last time out. I'd expect pretty much the same outcome against Greece.



Greece are ranked 54th in the world and the Swiss are ranked 16th. So yeah, no big deal.


Switzerland are a good side and qualify for everything. You would definitely want Greece ahead of them but....that is just one example and as you said a lot of the teams in the 2 pots are of a similar level, as long as no big gun slips down to pot 2.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Deco79 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2020 at 12:58pm
Happily be paired with Denmark again if it meant avoiding the other Pot 1 teams
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2020 at 1:08pm
Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Originally posted by flaghunter flaghunter wrote:

Dave could you republish your list including decimal points?
Are the points previewed here accurate?


Games on 11th/12th are accurate, the rest aren't (they physcially can't be since they are using rankings that will be outdated by the time the next round takes effect.

Rank Country Points
17 SRB 1487.984275
18 TUR 1487.759449
19 SVK 1478.523211
20 RUS 1476.043214
21 IRL 1464.325893
22 ROU 1458.538562
23 NOR 1456.314823
24 SCO 1453.413247
25 HUN 1451.812406
26 ISL 1447.835715
27 NIR 1446.002830
28 CZE 1442.583787



That’s not the case.

The calculations are done for all games in the window based on the rankings at the start of the window.

That website used that system in the previous windows and have had the correct rankings each time.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Green Man Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2020 at 1:13pm
We haven't a hope no matter what Pot we are in unless things change drastically next year. We can't even score a goal ffs
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote davereilly Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2020 at 1:30pm
Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Originally posted by flaghunter flaghunter wrote:

Dave could you republish your list including decimal points?
Are the points previewed here accurate?


Games on 11th/12th are accurate, the rest aren't (they physcially can't be since they are using rankings that will be outdated by the time the next round takes effect.

Rank Country Points
17 SRB 1487.984275
18 TUR 1487.759449
19 SVK 1478.523211
20 RUS 1476.043214
21 IRL 1464.325893
22 ROU 1458.538562
23 NOR 1456.314823
24 SCO 1453.413247
25 HUN 1451.812406
26 ISL 1447.835715
27 NIR 1446.002830
28 CZE 1442.583787



That’s not the case.

The calculations are done for all games in the window based on the rankings at the start of the window.

That website used that system in the previous windows and have had the correct rankings each time.

Yes I know that, but if you look at the IRL-BUL game for example, it says a win will give us 6.0 points. It won't, and no one can say now how much points we will actually get for it, since it will depend on games that have not yet happened.

I have seen this guy's spreadsheet, and he updates the points based on every game, just like I do, but other than the first round of games in his preview, the amount of points to be awarded isn't really what he is listing here.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Zinedine Kilbane 110 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2020 at 1:41pm
The higher the pot you’re in, the better chance of qualifying.
Its nonsense to state pot 2 and 3 are similar. The difference in quality may not be huge but every little advantage counts.

Ideally we make pot 2 and get easy teams in pot 4,5 and 6.
We normally do okay (draw) with the better teams.

It’s amazing how we still have a shot of pot 2. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ripbomb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2020 at 1:48pm
[QUOTE=Green Man]We haven't a hope no matter what Pot we are in unless things change drastically next year. We can't even score a goal ffs[/QUOTpE] At last someone talking a bit of sense on this thread
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BrendanD88 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2020 at 2:08pm
Originally posted by Green Man Green Man wrote:

We haven't a hope no matter what Pot we are in unless things change drastically next year. We can't even score a goal ffs

You’re safer giving up on following us green man, are you as miserable in real life? Are you ok, need to talk?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Claret Murph Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2020 at 2:14pm
Originally posted by BrendanD88 BrendanD88 wrote:

Originally posted by Green Man Green Man wrote:

We haven't a hope no matter what Pot we are in unless things change drastically next year. We can't even score a goal ffs

You’re safer giving up on following us green man, are you as miserable in real life? Are you ok, need to talk?
Thing is Bren GM has a very valid point as we have no goals in the team .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sausy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2020 at 2:27pm
Originally posted by Green Man Green Man wrote:

We haven't a hope no matter what Pot we are in unless things change drastically next year. We can't even score a goal ffs
 
We all know we're limited now in both quality and experience coupled on top of Covid and injuries.
 
Just to clarify supporting and winning are two completely different things. Most who have properly supported Ireland over the years know we go through good and bad times, while allowing time for rebuilding/transition and still support the team.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Baldrick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2020 at 2:31pm
Originally posted by Claret Murph Claret Murph wrote:

Originally posted by BrendanD88 BrendanD88 wrote:

Originally posted by Green Man Green Man wrote:

We haven't a hope no matter what Pot we are in unless things change drastically next year. We can't even score a goal ffs

You’re safer giving up on following us green man, are you as miserable in real life? Are you ok, need to talk?
Thing is Bren GM has a very valid point as we have no goals in the team .

Yeah we should contact FIFA and say due to the fact we can’t score we won’t be fulfilling our fixtures 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BrendanD88 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2020 at 3:09pm
Originally posted by Claret Murph Claret Murph wrote:

Originally posted by BrendanD88 BrendanD88 wrote:

Originally posted by Green Man Green Man wrote:

We haven't a hope no matter what Pot we are in unless things change drastically next year. We can't even score a goal ffs

You’re safer giving up on following us green man, are you as miserable in real life? Are you ok, need to talk?
Thing is Bren GM has a very valid point as we have no goals in the team .

A bit like Burnley Murph! Amirite?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Yoco Santos Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2020 at 8:29pm
There are plenty of threads on here to moan about how sh*te we are at the moment. Can we please leave this one to the freaks, geeks and virgins interested in ranking points?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Claret Murph Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2020 at 10:06pm
Originally posted by BrendanD88 BrendanD88 wrote:

Originally posted by Claret Murph Claret Murph wrote:

Originally posted by BrendanD88 BrendanD88 wrote:

Originally posted by Green Man Green Man wrote:

We haven't a hope no matter what Pot we are in unless things change drastically next year. We can't even score a goal ffs

You’re safer giving up on following us green man, are you as miserable in real life? Are you ok, need to talk?
Thing is Bren GM has a very valid point as we have no goals in the team .

A bit like Burnley Murph! Amirite?
You have a point Bren but then again Dyche has been here before where as Kenny , well is just a good LOI manager 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2020 at 11:51pm
Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Originally posted by flaghunter flaghunter wrote:

Dave could you republish your list including decimal points?
Are the points previewed here accurate?


Games on 11th/12th are accurate, the rest aren't (they physcially can't be since they are using rankings that will be outdated by the time the next round takes effect.

Rank Country Points
17 SRB 1487.984275
18 TUR 1487.759449
19 SVK 1478.523211
20 RUS 1476.043214
21 IRL 1464.325893
22 ROU 1458.538562
23 NOR 1456.314823
24 SCO 1453.413247
25 HUN 1451.812406
26 ISL 1447.835715
27 NIR 1446.002830
28 CZE 1442.583787



That’s not the case.

The calculations are done for all games in the window based on the rankings at the start of the window.

That website used that system in the previous windows and have had the correct rankings each time.

Yes I know that, but if you look at the IRL-BUL game for example, it says a win will give us 6.0 points. It won't, and no one can say now how much points we will actually get for it, since it will depend on games that have not yet happened.

I have seen this guy's spreadsheet, and he updates the points based on every game, just like I do, but other than the first round of games in his preview, the amount of points to be awarded isn't really what he is listing here.

Read my post again.

You’re still not following what I’m saying.

The points are all calculated based on what the points were at the start of the window. So you CAN work them out in advance. I wasn’t sure about this in the first window but then I learned that that’s how it’s done, not the way u are saying it is done.
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