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2022 World Cup - Permutations - see page 17

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Topic: 2022 World Cup - Permutations - see page 17
Posted By: rolo
Subject: 2022 World Cup - Permutations - see page 17
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:22am
The draw for the UEFA qualifying campaign for the 2022 World Cup is to be held on 29th November (subject to confirmation).

Ten groups. Some with six teams, some with five. 

Group winners qualify. Runners up go into the playoffs with the two best Nations League group winners who finish outside the top 2 in their group.

As it's a World Cup, seedings for the draw are based on the November 2020 FIFA rankings.

So, for Ireland to be second seeds, we would need to be at least the 20th highest ranked European team when the Nations League has finished.

And, as per every single campaign with Ireland, we are going to have a nervous run-in to when the seedings are finalised.

In the current FIFA rankings, we are the 20th highest European team, right above the trap door, and with plenty of teams very close below us.



Currently the seedings for the draw are:

1 Belgium (1st in FIFA rankings)
2 France (2nd)
3 England (4th)
4 Croatia (6th)
5 Portugal (7th)
6 Spain (8th)
7 Switzerland (12th)
8 Italy (13th)
9 Netherlands (14th)
10 Germany (15th)
-----------------------
11 Denmark (16th)
12 Sweden (=17th)
13 Poland (19th)
14 Wales (23rd)
15 Ukraine (24th)
16 Austria (26th)
17 Turkey (=29th)
18 Serbia (=29th)
19 Slovakia (32nd)
20 Rep of Ireland (34th)
------------------------
21 Northern Ireland (36th)
22 Romania (37th)
23 Russia (38th)
24 Iceland (39th)



Duffy's equaliser tonight was massive. Tonight's draw and a win against Finland would have us staying in 20th (just) in the September rankings, with Russia closing the gap and moving up to 21st seed, and with only a small number of ranking points between us. 

For those of us who think it matters whether we are 2nd or 3rd seeds, it'll be tense times ahead in these Nations League games. Plenty of permutations to come as we get more results over the remaining games involving ourselves and the teams around us. But thats the state of play for now.  



-------------
"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"



Replies:
Posted By: Lenny82
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:36am
Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

The draw for the UEFA qualifying campaign for the 2022 World Cup is to be held on 29th November (subject to confirmation).

Ten groups. Some with six teams, some with five. 

Group winners qualify. Runners up go into the playoffs with the two best Nations League group winners who finish outside the top 2 in their group.

As it's a World Cup, seedings for the draw are based on the November 2020 FIFA rankings.

So, for Ireland to be second seeds, we would need to be at least the 20th highest ranked European team when the Nations League has finished.

And, as per every single campaign with Ireland, we are going to have a nervous run-in to when the seedings are finalised.

In the current FIFA rankings, we are the 20th highest European team, right above the trap door, and with plenty of teams very close below us.



Currently the seedings for the draw are:

1 Belgium (1st in FIFA rankings)
2 France (2nd)
3 England (4th)
4 Croatia (6th)
5 Portugal (7th)
6 Spain (8th)
7 Switzerland (12th)
8 Italy (13th)
9 Netherlands (14th)
10 Germany (15th)
-----------------------
11 Denmark (16th)
12 Sweden (=17th)
13 Poland (19th)
14 Wales (23rd)
15 Ukraine (24th)
16 Austria (26th)
17 Turkey (=29th)
18 Serbia (=29th)
19 Slovakia (32nd)
20 Rep of Ireland (34th)
------------------------
21 Northern Ireland (36th)
22 Romania (37th)
23 Russia (38th)
24 Iceland (39th)



Duffy's equaliser tonight was massive. Tonight's draw and a win against Finland would have us staying in 20th (just) in the September rankings, with Russia closing the gap and moving up to 21st seed, and with only a small number of ranking points between us. 

For those of us who think it matters whether we are 2nd or 3rd seeds, it'll be tense times ahead in these Nations League games. Plenty of permutations to come as we get more results over the remaining games involving ourselves and the teams around us. But thats the state of play for now.  


Nice one. Every game is important, even if some try to belittle it.


Posted By: Jimmy Raggatip
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:51am
good work, although I don't fear any of those 2nd pot sides should we have to face them


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:53am
It's very tight between Serbia, Turkey, Slovakia and ourselves.

Serbia and Turkey both lost tonight, which is good. And they play each other on Sunday. I was thinking a draw might be the best result there to affect both of them, but a win for either is probably better, they are currently on the exact same points, and two defeats in this window is more damaging. A Serbia win, say, with Turkey then having to play Russia and Serbia again in the reverse fixtures... that would be good for us.


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"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 1:01am
Originally posted by Jimmy Raggatip Jimmy Raggatip wrote:

good work, although I don't fear any of those 2nd pot sides should we have to face them

People always say this! Couldn't disagree more!

Just look at the last campaign, we got Denmark as 2nd seeds - who you say you don't fear - and we finished third and didnt qualify automatically.

Also, Ukraine beat Switzerland tonight, and have been in brilliant form in qualifying for the Euros. Plenty of other teams in that pot who I could mention too. 

Further, none of them will fear us LOL


-------------
"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"


Posted By: Healy52003
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 2:23am
Were going to get Wales, Denmark and Georgia in our group


Posted By: ConorMac77
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:21am
Originally posted by Healy52003 Healy52003 wrote:

Were going to get Wales, Denmark and Georgia in our group
Not if we get that 2nd seeding, all the more reason to take this NL group seriously.

Still won't stop us getting Georgia again though. LOL


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The nation holds it's breath...YES, WE'RE THERE!!!


Posted By: Denis Irwin
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:30am
No "easier" top seeds either. 

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Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one".

Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn


Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:53am
It's really weird thinking as it stands we can't draw Denmark or Wales. Playing them seems like a rule at this stage.

I guess this means we'll qualify for a playoff, and guess who we draw there....


Posted By: J0E_90
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 10:59am
Hey guys, as Rolo says, the equaliser last night was huge for us rankings-wise. We would have remained in 20th but essentially equal to the three below us and with a game more played.

Russia now up to 21st although we are closer to Turkey (19th) and Serbia in (18th) than the Russians are to us.

A win either way tonight in the Romania (23rd) match v the North (22nd) would also crank up the pressure a good bit with the winner overtaking Russia. A draw would be the perfect result for us as it would result in no points change for either team.

An away win for the Czechs (26th) tonight v Slovakia (17th) would also be huge as it would see us and Serbia leapfrog them.


Posted By: flaghunter
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 11:53am
My type of thread Smile

Rolo, have you found an online calculator (or made your own), to predict how many ranking points each result would give ourselves or our rivals after each upcoming game?

Will make my own on excel if not.



Posted By: JohnSwift
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:20pm
A great thread on an important matter to be aware of as the Nations League fixtures progress over the next two months.

Fair play to Rolo for summarising everything so clearly.


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:27pm
Originally posted by flaghunter flaghunter wrote:

My type of thread Smile

Rolo, have you found an online calculator (or made your own), to predict how many ranking points each result would give ourselves or our rivals after each upcoming game?

Will make my own on excel if not.


Haven't found a calculator yet but FIFA are using a new system since August 2018 which is much fairer; it isn't based on averaging results over the past number of years anymore, but simply adds and subtracts points from the total based on the result of a game. 

It's quite straightforward now and the algorithm is explained here:

http://resources.fifa.com/image/upload/fifa-world-ranking-technical-explanation-revision.pdf?cloudid=edbm045h0udbwkqew35a" rel="nofollow - https://resources.fifa.com/image/upload/fifa-world-ranking-technical-explanation-revision.pdf?cloudid=edbm045h0udbwkqew35a


-------------
"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"


Posted By: Denis Irwin
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:29pm
Rolo any chance of throwing up how the rest of the seedings stand at the moment. Just to get an idea of the type of group we could end up with (Best and Worst case etc..) 

-------------
Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one".

Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn


Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:31pm
Also worth remembering that only the results from the last 36 months are taken into account. Current rankings are from July, so between now and November the points from these games are removed:
Away draw vs. Georgia
Home win vs. Moldova
Away win vs. Wales
Away draw vs. Denmark
Home loss vs. Denmark 

That away win vs. Wales was worth quite a few points, we need to knock up a few wins just to get those back


Posted By: J0E_90
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:36pm
Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Also worth remembering that only the results from the last 36 months are taken into account. Current rankings are from July, so between now and November the points from these games are removed:
Away draw vs. Georgia
Home win vs. Moldova
Away win vs. Wales
Away draw vs. Denmark
Home loss vs. Denmark 

That away win vs. Wales was worth quite a few points, we need to knock up a few wins just to get those back

Is this definitely still the case since the new format came in in 2018?


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:38pm
Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Also worth remembering that only the results from the last 36 months are taken into account. Current rankings are from July, so between now and November the points from these games are removed:
Away draw vs. Georgia
Home win vs. Moldova
Away win vs. Wales
Away draw vs. Denmark
Home loss vs. Denmark 

That away win vs. Wales was worth quite a few points, we need to knock up a few wins just to get those back

Not the case anymore, see my post above.


-------------
"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:40pm
Originally posted by Denis Irwin Denis Irwin wrote:

Rolo any chance of throwing up how the rest of the seedings stand at the moment. Just to get an idea of the type of group we could end up with (Best and Worst case etc..) 


Yeah ok. I'll have to go through the list AngryLOL


-------------
"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"


Posted By: Denis Irwin
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:41pm
Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Originally posted by Denis Irwin Denis Irwin wrote:

Rolo any chance of throwing up how the rest of the seedings stand at the moment. Just to get an idea of the type of group we could end up with (Best and Worst case etc..) 


Yeah ok. I'll have to go through the list AngryLOL


Nice wan Cheers Thumbs Up


-------------
Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one".

Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn


Posted By: J0E_90
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:45pm
Just to add, for anyone interested, have found this tool useful for adding/subtracting results to the most recent rankings.

http://www.football-rankings.info/2020/08/fifa-ranking-september-2020-preview_16.html

Here is a rough tally for the current situation (rough due to the lack of decimal point information from FIFA). I think my maths is correct.

17 Slovakia 1490
18 Serbia 1486.2
19 Turkey 1485.4
20 Republic of Ireland 1484.5
-------------
21 Russia 1477.8
22 Northern Ireland 1476
23 Romania 1475
24 Iceland 1465


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:54pm
Here are Pots 1 to 6, as they stand. Serious drop in quality half way down the 4th pot. 19 places between North Macedonia and Belarus.




Currently the seedings for the draw are:

1 Belgium (1st in FIFA rankings)
2 France (2nd)
3 England (4th)
4 Croatia (6th)
5 Portugal (7th)
6 Spain (8th)
7 Switzerland (12th)
8 Italy (13th)
9 Netherlands (14th)
10 Germany (15th)
-----------------------
11 Denmark (16th)
12 Sweden (=17th)
13 Poland (19th)
14 Wales (23rd)
15 Ukraine (24th)
16 Austria (26th)
17 Turkey (=29th)
18 Serbia (=29th)
19 Slovakia (32nd)
20 Rep of Ireland (34th)
------------------------
21 Northern Ireland (36th)
22 Romania (37th)
23 Russia (38th)
24 Iceland (39th)
25 Norway (44th)
26 Czech Republic (45th)
27 Bosnia and Herzegovina (49th)
28 Scotland (50th)
29 Hungary (52nd)
30 Greece (54th)
------------------------
31 Finland (58th)
32 Bulgaria (=59th)
33 Montenegro (=64th)
34 Slovenia (=64th)
35 Albania (66th)
36 North Macedonia (68th)
37 Belarus (87th)
38 Georgia (91st)
39 Israel (93rd)
40 Cyprus (95th)
---------------------------
41 Luxembourg (98th)
42 Armenia (102nd)
43 Estonia (104th)
44 Faroe Islands (110th)
45 Azerbaijan (114th)
46 Kosovo (115th)
47 Kazakhstan (118th)
48 Lithuania (=131st)
49 Andorra (135th)
50 Latvia (137th)
--------------------------
51 Moldova (175th)
52 Liechtenstein (180th)
53 Malta (184th)
54 Gibraltar (196th)
55 San Marino (209th)
-------------------------


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"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"


Posted By: Denis Irwin
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 1:12pm
Swiss probably the top seed to get looking at the rest of them (Not that it will be easy)







-------------
Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one".

Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn


Posted By: Dr. Pat
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 1:24pm
Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Here are Pots 1 to 6, as they stand. Serious drop in quality half way down the 4th pot. 19 places between North Macedonia and Belarus.




Currently the seedings for the draw are:

1 Belgium (1st in FIFA rankings)
2 France (2nd)
3 England (4th)
4 Croatia (6th)
5 Portugal (7th)
6 Spain (8th)
7 Switzerland (12th)
8 Italy (13th)
9 Netherlands (14th)
10 Germany (15th)
-----------------------
11 Denmark (16th)
12 Sweden (=17th)
13 Poland (19th)
14 Wales (23rd)
15 Ukraine (24th)
16 Austria (26th)
17 Turkey (=29th)
18 Serbia (=29th)
19 Slovakia (32nd)
20 Rep of Ireland (34th)
------------------------
21 Northern Ireland (36th)
22 Romania (37th)
23 Russia (38th)
24 Iceland (39th)
25 Norway (44th)
26 Czech Republic (45th)
27 Bosnia and Herzegovina (49th)
28 Scotland (50th)
29 Hungary (52nd)
30 Greece (54th)
------------------------
31 Finland (58th)
32 Bulgaria (=59th)
33 Montenegro (=64th)
34 Slovenia (=64th)
35 Albania (66th)
36 North Macedonia (68th)
37 Belarus (87th)
38 Georgia (91st)
39 Israel (93rd)
40 Cyprus (95th)
---------------------------
41 Luxembourg (98th)
42 Armenia (102nd)
43 Estonia (104th)
44 Faroe Islands (110th)
45 Azerbaijan (114th)
46 Kosovo (115th)
47 Kazakhstan (118th)
48 Lithuania (=131st)
49 Andorra (135th)
50 Latvia (137th)
--------------------------
51 Moldova (175th)
52 Liechtenstein (180th)
53 Malta (184th)
54 Gibraltar (196th)
55 San Marino (209th)
-------------------------

Thanks for this. Great information. So vital we stay in that second seed spot. I wouldn't be fearful of any of the currently seeded 3rd.


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Geremi has let Kilbane in here, cross comes out to Holland, 1:1!!


Posted By: Joe Stalin
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 1:33pm
Love these threads! fair play Rolo.
 
Quick question on the algorthm - it doesnt specify that play off matches for the confederation finals are included? It says the playoffs for nations league definitely are.

 

If they are included and they’ve the same weighting as the qualifiers then the Slovakia match will be worth considerably more, almost 2 nations league games 0.15 vs 0.25?



Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 1:39pm
Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Also worth remembering that only the results from the last 36 months are taken into account. Current rankings are from July, so between now and November the points from these games are removed:
Away draw vs. Georgia
Home win vs. Moldova
Away win vs. Wales
Away draw vs. Denmark
Home loss vs. Denmark 

That away win vs. Wales was worth quite a few points, we need to knock up a few wins just to get those back

Not the case anymore, see my post above.

You're right, apologies. I completely forgot the system changed.


Posted By: darmack
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 1:48pm
Feckin love this permutations stuff

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The dark side.. And the light


Posted By: Yoco Santos
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 2:39pm
+1 good work


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 2:50pm
Before last night's games:

Seeding - Team - FIFA Ranking points 

17 Turkey 1494
18 Serbia 1494
19 Slovakia 1490
20 Rep of Ireland 1486
------------------------
21 Northern Ireland 1476
22 Romania 1475
23 Russia 1470
24 Iceland 1465


Duffy's equaliser meant we only dropped 1.5 points, rather than 9.
Russia beat Serbia; a gain of 7.8 points for Russia, a loss of 7.8 for Serbia.
Turkey lost to Hungary. A loss of 8.6 points for Turkey.
The others above didnt play last night.


So that group of teams after last night's matches now look like this:

17 Slovakia 1490
18 Serbia 1486.2
19 Turkey 1485.4
20 Rep of Ireland 1484.5
------------------------
21 Russia 1477.8
22 Northern Ireland 1476
23 Romania 1475
24 Iceland 1465


Very tight. We'd be out of the top 20 now if we had lost last night.


-------------
"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"


Posted By: Fozz
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 4:27pm
Very interesting.
The North play Romania later so we'll see movement for both of those most likely.





Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 5:05pm
Originally posted by Fozz Fozz wrote:

Very interesting.
The North play Romania later so we'll see movement for both of those most likely.




A win for either will give them 7.5 points, and the other will lose 7.5 points. A draw in that game will see both of them take 0 points from the game. That wouldn't be the case in other drawn games (teams gain and lose points in a drawn game) but in that match both teams would take 0 in the event of a draw.


So a draw there would be best for us.


-------------
"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"


Posted By: Dalymount79
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 8:59pm
Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Before last night's games:

Seeding - Team - FIFA Ranking points 

17 Turkey 1494
18 Serbia 1494
19 Slovakia 1490
20 Rep of Ireland 1486
------------------------
21 Northern Ireland 1476
22 Romania 1475
23 Russia 1470
24 Iceland 1465


Duffy's equaliser meant we only dropped 1.5 points, rather than 9.
Russia beat Serbia; a gain of 7.8 points for Russia, a loss of 7.8 for Serbia.
Turkey lost to Hungary. A loss of 8.6 points for Turkey.
The others above didnt play last night.


So that group of teams after last night's matches now look like this:

17 Slovakia 1490
18 Serbia 1486.2
19 Turkey 1485.4
20 Rep of Ireland 1484.5
------------------------
21 Russia 1477.8
22 Northern Ireland 1476
23 Romania 1475
24 Iceland 1465


Very tight. We'd be out of the top 20 now if we had lost last night.
slovakia losing 2-0 to Czechs so they could fall behind us 


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:32pm
Late equaliser for Northern Ireland. 

-------------
"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:41pm
Seedings Update:


Before tonight's matches:

17 Slovakia 1490
18 Serbia 1486.2
19 Turkey 1485.4
20 Rep of Ireland 1484.5
------------------------
21 Russia 1477.8
22 Northern Ireland 1476
23 Romania 1475
24 Iceland 1465



Slovakia lost to Czech Republic tonight, and so they drop 8.1 points.
Northern Ireland and Romania drew. They both get 0 points, no gain or loss of points.


So, after tonight's matches:



17 Serbia 1486.2
18 Turkey 1485.4
19 Rep of Ireland 1484.5
20 Slovakia 1481.9
------------------------
21 Russia 1477.8
22 Northern Ireland 1476
23 Romania 1475
24 Iceland 1465


-------------
"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"


Posted By: Liam Green
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:42pm
Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Late equaliser for Northern Ireland. 
Reading your posts earlier Rolo so that’s a good result for our rankings ya ? 
NI were very good playing with 10 men for 50mins


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:45pm
Originally posted by Liam Green Liam Green wrote:

Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Late equaliser for Northern Ireland. 
Reading your posts earlier Rolo so that’s a good result for our rankings ya ? 
NI were very good playing with 10 men for 50mins

See the post above yours.

Didnt see NI game.

I was watching Slovakia v Czech Rep in first half then Italy Bosnia in second half.

Slovakia are beatable, Bosnia would be very tough if we make it to the final.


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:54pm
Very tight between Ireland the teams around us.

Just a further update to emphasise the importance of these Nations League games for the World Cup seedings:

If Ireland beat Finland, thats a gain of 6.1 points.
A draw and we drop 1.4 points.
Lose and we drop 8.9 points.


Posted By: Liam Green
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:55pm
Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Originally posted by Liam Green Liam Green wrote:

Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Late equaliser for Northern Ireland. 
Reading your posts earlier Rolo so that’s a good result for our rankings ya ? 
NI were very good playing with 10 men for 50mins

See the post above yours.

Didnt see NI game.

I was watching Slovakia v Czech Rep in first half then Italy Bosnia in second half.

Slovakia are beatable, Bosnia would be very tough if we make it to the final.
Cheers for that. All Good 


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 4:50am
Seedings Update after 1st Round of Nations League:

Just one game last night involving the teams in the mix for the 2nd Pot.

Iceland were beaten by England. Thus the former dropped 4.8 points.



So, on completion of one round of Nations League games, the relevant seedings are as follows:



17 Serbia 1486.2
18 Turkey 1485.4
19 Rep of Ireland 1484.5
20 Slovakia 1481.9
------------------------
21 Russia 1477.8
22 Northern Ireland 1476
23 Romania 1475
24 Iceland 1460.2


It's good news for us that Turkey, Serbia and Russia are in the same Nations League group. In every single round two of those three will play each other, and so they'll keep taking points off each other.
Today it's Serbia against Turkey. 

We've had some very favourable results in the first round, with most of the teams around us slipping up. But we need to start picking up points.
A win needed today against Finland.



Posted By: Lenny82
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 8:27am
If we win and Serbia v Turkey finishes a draw, I assume we leapfrog them in to 17th?

Are those in 16th, 15th, 14th, etc. Miles ahead of the group you have listed?


Posted By: Fozz
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 12:30pm
Originally posted by Lenny82 Lenny82 wrote:

If we win and Serbia v Turkey finishes a draw, I assume we leapfrog them in to 17th?

Are those in 16th, 15th, 14th, etc. Miles ahead of the group you have listed?

I like yer style...let's aim to reach Pot One Tongue


Posted By: cildaratown
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 6:53pm
we in trouble now? Not that that team would have a hope of qualifying 


Posted By: FrankosHereNow
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 6:55pm
Originally posted by cildaratown cildaratown wrote:

we in trouble now? Not that that team would have a hope of qualifying 
Did you think we had a chance 4 days ago?

-------------
YBIG Quiz Champion 2016, 2017 & 2018.

As You Were
Three in a row


Posted By: Denis Irwin
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 6:57pm
Originally posted by FrankosHereNow FrankosHereNow wrote:

Originally posted by cildaratown cildaratown wrote:

we in trouble now? Not that that team would have a hope of qualifying 
Did you think we had a chance 4 days ago?


LOL

Some amount of knee jerk sh*te tonight


-------------
Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one".

Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn


Posted By: max
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 6:59pm
When is the draw?


Posted By: Denis Irwin
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 7:00pm
Originally posted by max max wrote:

When is the draw?

End of November I think


-------------
Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one".

Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn


Posted By: FrankosHereNow
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 7:01pm
Originally posted by Denis Irwin Denis Irwin wrote:

Originally posted by FrankosHereNow FrankosHereNow wrote:

Originally posted by cildaratown cildaratown wrote:

we in trouble now? Not that that team would have a hope of qualifying 
Did you think we had a chance 4 days ago?


LOL

Some amount of knee jerk sh*te tonight
I know, it’s so bloody irritating. Kenny’s has 2 games and a few training sessions. Ridiculous some of the comments.

-------------
YBIG Quiz Champion 2016, 2017 & 2018.

As You Were
Three in a row


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 7:25pm
Originally posted by cildaratown cildaratown wrote:

we in trouble now? Not that that team would have a hope of qualifying 

Still plenty of games to go.

I'll work out the latest seedings, but even if its bad, still a long way to go.


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 7:34pm
Seedings Update after the early games today:


Ireland's loss to Finland sees us lose a significant 8.9 points.

Russia's win against Hungary gives them 6.5 points.

So, the seedings currently are:



17 Serbia 1486.2
18 Turkey 1485.4
19 Russia 1484.3
20 Slovakia 1481.9
------------------------
21 Northern Ireland 1476
22 Rep of Ireland 1475.6
23 Romania 1475
24 Iceland 1460.2



Serbia play Turkey at 19.45. 

A win for Serbia would give them 7.7 points, and Turkey would lose the same amount. 
A draw would give Serbia 0.2 points and Turkey would lose the same amount.
A win for Turkey would give them 7.3 points, and Serbia would lose the same amount. 


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 9:45pm
Seedings Update:



Serbia 0-0 Turkey



17 Serbia 1486.4
18 Turkey 1485.2
19 Russia 1484.3
20 Slovakia 1481.9
------------------------
21 Northern Ireland 1476
22 Rep of Ireland 1475.6
23 Romania 1475
24 Iceland 1460.2


Posted By: Joe Stalin
Date Posted: 07 Sep 2020 at 12:04am
Looks like our play-off v. Slovakia could have added significance now..


Posted By: avfc
Date Posted: 07 Sep 2020 at 12:08am
we would be very weak second seeds should we make it to pot 2.

Always a danger of NL or Germany dropping into pot 2 which would make pot 3 job impossible


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 07 Sep 2020 at 1:12am
Originally posted by Joe Stalin Joe Stalin wrote:

Looks like our play-off v. Slovakia could have added significance now..


Was thinking this earlier too.

Russia will probably kick on now, two wins from two already and we aren't going to catch them.

We need two of the teams above what I call the trap door to slip up. Pinning hopes on Slovakia and one of Turkey and Serbia. 

I was thinking the draw between Turkey and Serbia wasn't ideal. Probably need one of those two to have a very poor Nations League and lose lots of games. But now if Russia could maybe continue their run and beat both of those teams home and away, that draw wouldn't be too bad.  

We also need the teams below us to have a poor Nations League.

We need Austria to beat Romania tomorrow and Norway to beat NI, ideally. As long as Romania and NI don't win, that'll be helpful, but defeats would be much better.


Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 07 Sep 2020 at 2:00pm
Originally posted by Joe Stalin Joe Stalin wrote:

Looks like our play-off v. Slovakia could have added significance now..

Assuming the updated scores are correct, and these are used for the Slovakia playoff, this is what happens.

IRL win -> IRL new score 1489 (+13)
IRL win -> SVK new score 1469 (-13)
SVK win -> IRL new score 1464 (-12)
SVK win -> SVK new score 1494 (+12)


Posted By: Green Man
Date Posted: 07 Sep 2020 at 2:58pm
What date are the rankings taken into account, with all 5 of our remaining games this year being used?

Hard to see us reaching 20th in that ranking table above unless we beat Slovakia.


Posted By: irishmufc
Date Posted: 07 Sep 2020 at 9:19pm
@Rolo

Assume we finish third in our NL group, does that make much difference as to if we finish 2nd or 4th seedings wise? 

Is it more dependant on other teams around us in different groups?


-------------
"I'm Louis Theroux. I'm Louis Theroux and his wry smile at the orgy"


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 2:03am
Originally posted by irishmufc irishmufc wrote:

@Rolo

Assume we finish third in our NL group, does that make much difference as to if we finish 2nd or 4th seedings wise? 

Is it more dependant on other teams around us in different groups?

No, it's based on FIFA rankings, not Nations League standings.


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 2:18am
Seedings Update:



Slovakia drew with Israel; Slovakia drop 3.2 points.
Northern Ireland lost to Norway. Northern Ireland drop 7.6 points.
Romania beat Austria. Romania gain 7.7 points.



17 Serbia 1486.4
18 Turkey 1485.2
19 Russia 1484.3
20 Romania 1482.7
------------------------
21 Slovakia 1478.7
22 Rep of Ireland 1475.6
23 Northern Ireland 1468.4
24 Iceland 1460.2


Posted By: RKeane
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 3:11am
The Slovakia game is colossal 

-------------
YESSSS! IT'S THERE


Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 8:15am
Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Seedings Update:



Slovakia drew with Israel; Slovakia drop 3.2 points.
Northern Ireland lost to Norway. Northern Ireland drop 7.6 points.
Romania beat Austria. Romania gain 7.7 points.



17 Serbia 1486.4
18 Turkey 1485.2
19 Russia 1484.3
20 Romania 1482.7
------------------------
21 Slovakia 1478.7
22 Rep of Ireland 1475.6
23 Northern Ireland 1468.4
24 Iceland 1460.2

I'm not 100% sure about that. That's using the points from before Round 1. If Round 2 is actually calculated using the updated (but unpublished) points, the table looks a little different.

14 Poland 1557.8
15 Ukraine 1550.2
16 Wales 1539.8
17 Austria 1505.9
18 Serbia 1486.0
19 Turkey 1485.0
20 Rep. Ireland 1484.7
------------------------
21 Slovakia 1483.0 
22 Russia 1479.0
23 N. Ireland 1476.0
24 Romania 1468.0


Posted By: darmack
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 9:41am
Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Seedings Update:



Slovakia drew with Israel; Slovakia drop 3.2 points.
Northern Ireland lost to Norway. Northern Ireland drop 7.6 points.
Romania beat Austria. Romania gain 7.7 points.



17 Serbia 1486.4
18 Turkey 1485.2
19 Russia 1484.3
20 Romania 1482.7
------------------------
21 Slovakia 1478.7
22 Rep of Ireland 1475.6
23 Northern Ireland 1468.4
24 Iceland 1460.2

I'm not 100% sure about that. That's using the points from before Round 1. If Round 2 is actually calculated using the updated (but unpublished) points, the table looks a little different.

14 Poland 1557.8
15 Ukraine 1550.2
16 Wales 1539.8
17 Austria 1505.9
18 Serbia 1486.0
19 Turkey 1485.0
20 Rep. Ireland 1484.7
------------------------
21 Slovakia 1483.0 
22 Russia 1479.0
23 N. Ireland 1476.0
24 Romania 1468.0

Please remain pessimistic until further notice.


-------------
The dark side.. And the light


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 11:46am
Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

I'm not 100% sure about that. That's using the points from before Round 1. If Round 2 is actually calculated using the updated (but unpublished) points, the table looks a little different.



You would hope that indeed they do use the updated (but unpublished) ranking points after each particular match, which would definitely lead to a different table. Im having a look at the old rankings to work out if they have done it game by game previously. I was under the impression that they were doing it round by round, but hopefully you're right, as it makes absolutely the most sense.


Posted By: Cymro
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 2:44pm
Originally posted by darmack darmack wrote:

Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Seedings Update:



Slovakia drew with Israel; Slovakia drop 3.2 points.
Northern Ireland lost to Norway. Northern Ireland drop 7.6 points.
Romania beat Austria. Romania gain 7.7 points.



17 Serbia 1486.4
18 Turkey 1485.2
19 Russia 1484.3
20 Romania 1482.7
------------------------
21 Slovakia 1478.7
22 Rep of Ireland 1475.6
23 Northern Ireland 1468.4
24 Iceland 1460.2

I'm not 100% sure about that. That's using the points from before Round 1. If Round 2 is actually calculated using the updated (but unpublished) points, the table looks a little different.

14 Poland 1557.8
15 Ukraine 1550.2
16 Wales 1539.8
17 Austria 1505.9
18 Serbia 1486.0
19 Turkey 1485.0
20 Rep. Ireland 1484.7
------------------------
21 Slovakia 1483.0 
22 Russia 1479.0
23 N. Ireland 1476.0
24 Romania 1468.0

Please remain pessimistic until further notice.

Was looking at this myself to scout potential opponents in the draw and this implies they do not use rankings updated on a game by game basis for points allocation:

http://www.football-rankings.info/2020/08/fifa-ranking-september-2020-preview_16.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.football-rankings.info/2020/08/fifa-ranking-september-2020-preview_16.html

Note that he has set out the points for the second round of matches in advance of the first round of matches being played. I don't think he'd have done that if the results of the first round would impact the points available for the second round.

So I would guess that the former table is indeed correct at present, although I am no statistician.

Any chance of Norway being in pot 2? Look a nightmare draw from pot 3 at this stage. You might even want to be in pot 3 just to avoid them!

Additionally, the table he posted seems to have Ireland gaining 0.2 points from the two games which were a draw and defeat. I don't think that would be right under any system.


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 5:36pm
Originally posted by Cymro Cymro wrote:


Was looking at this myself to scout potential opponents in the draw and this implies they do not use rankings updated on a game by game basis for points allocation:

http://www.football-rankings.info/2020/08/fifa-ranking-september-2020-preview_16.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.football-rankings.info/2020/08/fifa-ranking-september-2020-preview_16.html

Note that he has set out the points for the second round of matches in advance of the first round of matches being played. I don't think he'd have done that if the results of the first round would impact the points available for the second round.

So I would guess that the former table is indeed correct at present, although I am no statistician.

Any chance of Norway being in pot 2? Look a nightmare draw from pot 3 at this stage. You might even want to be in pot 3 just to avoid them!

Additionally, the table he posted seems to have Ireland gaining 0.2 points from the two games which were a draw and defeat. I don't think that would be right under any system.

Yeah its confusing. He does imply that the 1st Round has no impact on the 2nd Round, but the FIFA rankings resource indicates that it is done after each match (which is the way it should be done!):

  • The formula for the SUM algorithm is as follows:

P = Pbefore + I (W – We)


Pbefore: Points before the match

I: importance of match


  • I= 05   Friendly matches played outside of International Match Calendar windows 

  • I= 10   Friendly matches played during International Match Calendar windows 

  • I= 15   Group phase matches of Nations League competitions

  • I= 25   Play-off and final matches of Nations League competitions

  • I= 25   Qualification matches for Confederations final competitions and for FIFA World Cup final competitions

  • I= 35 Confederation final competition matches up until the QF stage

  • I= 40 Confederation final competition matches from the QF stage onwards; all FIFA Confede-

    rations Cup matches

  • I= 50 FIFA World Cup final competition matches up until QF stage

  • I= 60 FIFA World Cup final competition matches from QF stage onwards


W: result of the match
• 1=win;0.5=draw;0=defeat

We: expected result of the match

We (10(-dr/600) 1)
With dr=difference in ratings of the two playing teams, i.e. dr = [Pbefore of Team A – Pbefore of Team B]

Example: Team A has 1300 points before the match and wins a continental qualifier against team B that has 1500 points.

For team A the formula is: P=1300+25*(1–(1/(10 exp (-(1300–1500)/600) +1))) For team B the formula is: P = 1500 + 25 * (0- (1 / 10(-(1500-1300)/600) + 1))

Thus, team A wins 17 points and has P = 1317 points after the match. Team B loses the same amount of points and thus ends up with 1483 points after the match.



Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 5:40pm
Basically this can be easily sorted by running a few calculations on previous rankings (but would have to go back to late 2019 as there have been no games since, not significant games anyway).

Will try do some later if I get a chance, to clear up the confusion.

So for now, just disregard my table, but not the bit about us being in a real scrap to get into the second pot of seeds!


Posted By: darmack
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 5:42pm
It used to be around the middle of the month when Fifa used to update the rankings, so maybe next week should know for definite.

-------------
The dark side.. And the light


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 5:45pm
Originally posted by darmack darmack wrote:

It used to be around the middle of the month when Fifa used to update the rankings, so maybe next week should know for definite.


That is an easier way of finding out alright! 
But will have a look later anyway if I get a chance, at the old rankings, and run some calculations. Interested to know.


Some teething problems with the permutations thread currently so, bit like the team under the new management  LOL

But both will come good soon Clap


Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 09 Sep 2020 at 7:38am
Sorting error on my side, the points scores were right, but assigned to the wrong teams LOL

Here is the updated rankings after Round 2

16 AUT 1506
17 SRB 1486
18 TUR 1485
19 RUS 1485
20 ROU 1483
21 SVK 1479
22 IRL 1476
23 NIR 1468
24 ISL 1457
25 NOR 1452


Posted By: Fozz
Date Posted: 09 Sep 2020 at 9:39am
Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Sorting error on my side, the points scores were right, but assigned to the wrong teams LOL

Here is the updated rankings after Round 2

16 AUT 1506
17 SRB 1486
18 TUR 1485
19 RUS 1485
20 ROU 1483
21 SVK 1479
22 IRL 1476
23 NIR 1468
24 ISL 1457
25 NOR 1452

Nice work.
How many more games have we to play before the pots of the WC draw are set?
Is it all 4 NL games and the one or two playoffs?

Or just the next 3-game window and then we're done?



Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 09 Sep 2020 at 9:41am
Originally posted by Fozz Fozz wrote:

Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Sorting error on my side, the points scores were right, but assigned to the wrong teams LOL

Here is the updated rankings after Round 2

16 AUT 1506
17 SRB 1486
18 TUR 1485
19 RUS 1485
20 ROU 1483
21 SVK 1479
22 IRL 1476
23 NIR 1468
24 ISL 1457
25 NOR 1452

Nice work.
How many more games have we to play before the pots of the WC draw are set?
Is it all 4 NL games and the one or two playoffs?

Or just the next 3-game window and then we're done?


4 NL games, and 1 or 2 Euro Playoffs.
If we beat Slovakia we will overtake them and Romania, but Romania also have a playoff so nothing is set in stone yet.


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 09 Sep 2020 at 12:11pm
Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Sorting error on my side, the points scores were right, but assigned to the wrong teams LOL

Here is the updated rankings after Round 2

16 AUT 1506
17 SRB 1486
18 TUR 1485
19 RUS 1485
20 ROU 1483
21 SVK 1479
22 IRL 1476
23 NIR 1468
24 ISL 1457
25 NOR 1452

So the points I had assigned were correct!?


These are the same points as I had above.

They don't do it after each particular game so?


Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 09 Sep 2020 at 2:02pm
Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Sorting error on my side, the points scores were right, but assigned to the wrong teams LOL

Here is the updated rankings after Round 2

16 AUT 1506
17 SRB 1486
18 TUR 1485
19 RUS 1485
20 ROU 1483
21 SVK 1479
22 IRL 1476
23 NIR 1468
24 ISL 1457
25 NOR 1452

So the points I had assigned were correct!?


These are the same points as I had above.

They don't do it after each particular game so?

My numbers were a few decimals off, but close. With only two games the possible scores can't vary that much.

I also need to see when FIFA bring out their updated scores, and then work around on my sheet, depending on when exactly they round and use rounded numbers can tweek the results.


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 3:50pm
Updated (correct!) seedings for the draw:

Current seedings based on September rankings published next week. I actually had them right. One issue is Ireland are one point less than I had them. I had Ireland at 1475.6 and so marked them up to 1476 but actually I had based that on a starting point of 1486 before the games were played but they had started on 1485 point something and been marked up to 1486, so that affected the sums.


Portugal and Spain overtook Croatia. Switzerland dropped 3 places. Very tight at the bottom of Pot 1.
Could yet be a big name in Pot 2.

Luxembourg move up to Pot 4. Cyprus drop down to Pot 5.




1 Belgium 1773
2 France 1744
3 England 1664
4 Portugal 1653
5 Spain 1642
6 Croatia 1628
7 Italy 1612
8 Netherlands 1603
9 Germany 1602
10 Switzerland 1600
-----------------------
11 Denmark 1593
12 Sweden 1567
13 Poland 1558
14 Wales 1550
15 Ukraine 1539
16 Austria 1505
17 Serbia 1486
18 Turkey 1485
19 Russia 1485
20 Romania 1483
------------------------
21 Slovakia 1479
22 Rep of Ireland 1475
23 Northern Ireland 1468
24 Iceland 1457
25 Norway 1452
26 Czech Republic 1446
27 Scotland 1428
28 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1426
29 Hungary 1418
30 Greece 1413
------------------------
31 Finland 1390
32 Bulgaria 1378
33 Montenegro 1376
34 Slovenia 1368
35 North Macedonia 1351
36 Albania 1351
37 Belarus 1282
38 Georgia 1274
39 Israel 1265
40 Luxembourg 1237
---------------------------
41 Cyprus 1236
42 Armenia 1215
43 Faroe Islands 1191
44 Estonia 1188
45 Azerbaijan 1179
46 Kosovo 1167
47 Kazakhstan 1156
48 Lithuania 1093
49 Latvia 1076
50 Andorra 1076
--------------------------
51 Moldova 959
52 Liechtenstein 932
53 Malta 917
54 Gibraltar 886
55 San Marino 811
-------------------------



-------------
"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"


Posted By: Baldrick
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 4:13pm
a good october for us will be crucial not only for next summer but also for the winter of 2022.   Really is one of the most important months for irish football on the field and unfortunately it comes really early in a reign that is about rebuilding the whole setup..  

-------------
AKA pedantic kunt


Posted By: Fozz
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 4:19pm
Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

a good october for us will be crucial not only for next summer but also for the winter of 2022.   Really is one of the most important months for irish football on the field and unfortunately it comes really early in a reign that is about rebuilding the whole setup..  

Yep, we play two teams ranked above us in quick succession.
If losses pile up then so does our fall further into Pot 3.

This upcoming three-game window is therefore important for several reasons and can define the next two years really.


Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 4:29pm
Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Updated (correct!) seedings for the draw:

Current seedings based on September rankings published next week. I actually had them right. One issue is Ireland are one point less than I had them. I had Ireland at 1475.6 and so marked them up to 1476 but actually I had based that on a starting point of 1486 before the games were played but they had started on 1485 point something and been marked up to 1486, so that affected the sums.


Portugal and Spain overtook Croatia. Switzerland dropped 3 places. Very tight at the bottom of Pot 1.
Could yet be a big name in Pot 2.

Luxembourg move up to Pot 4. Cyprus drop down to Pot 5.




1 Belgium 1773
2 France 1744
3 England 1664
4 Portugal 1653
5 Spain 1642
6 Croatia 1628
7 Italy 1612
8 Netherlands 1603
9 Germany 1602
10 Switzerland 1600
-----------------------
11 Denmark 1593
12 Sweden 1567
13 Poland 1558
14 Wales 1550
15 Ukraine 1539
16 Austria 1505
17 Serbia 1486
18 Turkey 1485
19 Russia 1485
20 Romania 1483
------------------------
21 Slovakia 1479
22 Rep of Ireland 1475
23 Northern Ireland 1468
24 Iceland 1457
25 Norway 1452
26 Czech Republic 1446
27 Scotland 1428
28 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1426
29 Hungary 1418
30 Greece 1413
------------------------
31 Finland 1390
32 Bulgaria 1378
33 Montenegro 1376
34 Slovenia 1368
35 North Macedonia 1351
36 Albania 1351
37 Belarus 1282
38 Georgia 1274
39 Israel 1265
40 Luxembourg 1237
---------------------------
41 Cyprus 1236
42 Armenia 1215
43 Faroe Islands 1191
44 Estonia 1188
45 Azerbaijan 1179
46 Kosovo 1167
47 Kazakhstan 1156
48 Lithuania 1093
49 Latvia 1076
50 Andorra 1076
--------------------------
51 Moldova 959
52 Liechtenstein 932
53 Malta 917
54 Gibraltar 886
55 San Marino 811
-------------------------


Where did you get these from? I'm working off two different models and the numbers don't match either


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 4:46pm
Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:


Where did you get these from? I'm working off two different models and the numbers don't match either

I actually compiled the seedings list myself, based on the September FIFA rankings. They are published on the 17th September but are on the football rankings info site. They match with the ranking points I had worked out over the last week or so for the teams in 17th to 24th place. But he has ranking points done for all 210 teams so I compiled a complete seedings list for the 55 European teams.


-------------
"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"


Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 4:47pm
Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

a good october for us will be crucial not only for next summer but also for the winter of 2022.   Really is one of the most important months for irish football on the field and unfortunately it comes really early in a reign that is about rebuilding the whole setup..  

Massive month next month for us. Three crucial games.


-------------
"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"


Posted By: TBWRA
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 5:05pm
Not even a decent trip in that poxi pot 2

-------------
"The Football Grounds of Europe" about Dalymount that :- "You walk down lanes you'd expect to find a backstreet mechanic only to stumble onto a national stadium steeped in tradition and history"


Posted By: gmfc90
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 5:08pm
Originally posted by TBWRA TBWRA wrote:

Not even a decent trip in that poxi pot 2


Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Romania and Serbia would be quality. Vienna is good craic too

-------------
Danger here, OH NO


Posted By: Denis Irwin
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 5:11pm
Switzerland
Austria
Ireland
Luxembourg
Latvia
Malta 


Wouldn't be the worst of groups. (There's no "handy" 2nd seeds IMO and Swiss probably the top seed to get to a certain extent given the other options)


-------------
Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one".

Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn


Posted By: Baldrick
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 5:14pm
Originally posted by gmfc90 gmfc90 wrote:

Originally posted by TBWRA TBWRA wrote:

Not even a decent trip in that poxi pot 2


Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Romania and Serbia would be quality. Vienna is good craic too


Jaysis the football trips are so far out of my mind at the moment Embarrassed


-------------
AKA pedantic kunt


Posted By: darmack
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 5:29pm
2nd place isn't automatically qualified either is it?
Wouldn't like a play off against any of those 2nd seed teams.


-------------
The dark side.. And the light


Posted By: ConorMac77
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 5:34pm
Originally posted by TBWRA TBWRA wrote:

Not even a decent trip in that poxi pot 2
We're bound to get Denmark again! Dead


-------------
The nation holds it's breath...YES, WE'RE THERE!!!


Posted By: Baldrick
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 6:31pm
Originally posted by darmack darmack wrote:

2nd place isn't automatically qualified either is it?
Wouldn't like a play off against any of those 2nd seed teams.


I would bite your hand off now for a playoff against any of those 2nd  pot teams.  We are hardly going to win the group. 


-------------
AKA pedantic kunt


Posted By: djhegzy
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 7:30pm
TBH not much in it between the pot 2 and pot 3 teams, wouldnt bother me too much if ended up in pot 3


Posted By: irishmufc
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 8:01pm
So in layman's terms what would be the minimum results we would need in the 3 October games in order for us to bump ourselves into Pot 2 for the draw? 

Could a playoff win and 2 draws in the Wales/Finland games be enough or would we most likely need 4 points in the NL double header? 


-------------
"I'm Louis Theroux. I'm Louis Theroux and his wry smile at the orgy"


Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 8:04pm
Originally posted by irishmufc irishmufc wrote:

So in layman's terms what would be the minimum results we would need in the 3 October games in order for us to bump ourselves into Pot 2 for the draw? 

Could a playoff win and 2 draws in the Wales/Finland games be enough or would we most likely need 4 points in the NL double header? 

That's just impossible to answer tbh. It all depends on how we do and other games, too much variables for my poor spreadsheet to answer.

Realistically we need to beat Slovakia, get 4 points from Bulgaria and Finland, and at least 2 from Wales. Can´t say for sure but I think that would make us safe.


Posted By: irishmufc
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 8:19pm
Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Originally posted by irishmufc irishmufc wrote:

So in layman's terms what would be the minimum results we would need in the 3 October games in order for us to bump ourselves into Pot 2 for the draw? 

Could a playoff win and 2 draws in the Wales/Finland games be enough or would we most likely need 4 points in the NL double header? 

That's just impossible to answer tbh. It all depends on how we do and other games, too much variables for my poor spreadsheet to answer.

Realistically we need to beat Slovakia, get 4 points from Bulgaria and Finland, and at least 2 from Wales. Can´t say for sure but I think that would make us safe.

Cheers Thumbs Up


-------------
"I'm Louis Theroux. I'm Louis Theroux and his wry smile at the orgy"


Posted By: grannyrule
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 8:21pm
Originally posted by djhegzy djhegzy wrote:

TBH not much in it between the pot 2 and pot 3 teams, wouldnt bother me too much if ended up in pot 3

I'd agree with this. 2/3rd seeds are pretty much the same. I wouldn't cry if we ended up as 3rd seeds.


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"It has been one of the worst years in living memory of Irish football, it has been that bad and a lot of it is down to Martin. The morale is rock bottom." - Keith Andrews, 16/10/2018


Posted By: Lenny82
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 9:01pm
Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

Originally posted by darmack darmack wrote:

2nd place isn't automatically qualified either is it?
Wouldn't like a play off against any of those 2nd seed teams.


I would bite your hand off now for a playoff against any of those 2nd  pot teams.  We are hardly going to win the group. 

Hi Mick


Posted By: irishmufc
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 9:14pm
LOL

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"I'm Louis Theroux. I'm Louis Theroux and his wry smile at the orgy"


Posted By: Baldrick
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 9:20pm
 Tongue

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AKA pedantic kunt


Posted By: darmack
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2020 at 12:10pm
Spot on with the calculations and points total it seems.
Hopefully next month is better for us.


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The dark side.. And the light


Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2020 at 4:09pm
I found the flaws in my spreadsheet, but now have been able to cross check it and have fixed it.

One important thing about next month, out of the teams from 17-24 which are very close on points, teams 21-24 are all in Euro Playoff games, the rest are all in friendlies.

Qualification games are statistically 2.5 times more important than friendlies, so this could either push us up the rankings quite nicely or push us down to where it is unlikely to reach 20 again. Very important month ahead


Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 28 Sep 2020 at 12:43pm
Best case scenario for us to get the most points and jump up the rankings ladder
Path A: BUL to beat ISL in final
Path B: IRL to beat NIR in final
Path C: ISR to beat NOR in final
Path D: KVX to beat GEO in final


Posted By: flaghunter
Date Posted: 30 Sep 2020 at 5:06pm
Any difference points wise if the Slovak game is decided in 90, 120 or pens?


Posted By: Denis Irwin
Date Posted: 30 Sep 2020 at 5:22pm
.. 

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Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one".

Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn


Posted By: BigStrongMan
Date Posted: 30 Sep 2020 at 5:55pm
Originally posted by Denis Irwin Denis Irwin wrote:

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2 points?

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PM me for all forum moderation queries.


Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 30 Sep 2020 at 5:57pm
Originally posted by flaghunter flaghunter wrote:

Any difference points wise if the Slovak game is decided in 90, 120 or pens?

No difference between 90 and 120 mins. Pens gives you less points if you win, but you also lose less if you lose on pens

EDIT: Losing on pens gives you the same points as a draw. Winning on pens gives you points half way between a win and draw


Posted By: flaghunter
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2020 at 10:03am
Strange one - I thought whatever points one team gained, the other lost.

This would not be the case in the pen shootout scenario so?



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