2022 World Cup - Permutations - see page 17
Printed From: You Boys in Green
Category: International
Forum Name: Republic Of Ireland
Forum Description: All ROI International Team forums
URL: https://forum.ybig.ie/forum_posts.asp?TID=57546
Printed Date: 25 Apr 2024 at 10:47pm
Software Version: Web Wiz Forums 12.00 - http://www.webwizforums.com
Topic: 2022 World Cup - Permutations - see page 17
Posted By: rolo
Subject: 2022 World Cup - Permutations - see page 17
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:22am
|
The draw for the UEFA qualifying campaign for the 2022 World Cup is to be held on 29th November (subject to confirmation). Ten groups. Some with six teams, some with five. Group winners qualify. Runners up go into the playoffs with the two best Nations League group winners who finish outside the top 2 in their group. As it's a World Cup, seedings for the draw are based on the November 2020 FIFA rankings. So, for Ireland to be second seeds, we would need to be at least the 20th highest ranked European team when the Nations League has finished. And, as per every single campaign with Ireland, we are going to have a nervous run-in to when the seedings are finalised. In the current FIFA rankings, we are the 20th highest European team, right above the trap door, and with plenty of teams very close below us. Currently the seedings for the draw are: 1 Belgium (1st in FIFA rankings) 2 France (2nd) 3 England (4th) 4 Croatia (6th) 5 Portugal (7th) 6 Spain (8th) 7 Switzerland (12th) 8 Italy (13th) 9 Netherlands (14th) 10 Germany (15th) ----------------------- 11 Denmark (16th) 12 Sweden (=17th) 13 Poland (19th) 14 Wales (23rd) 15 Ukraine (24th) 16 Austria (26th) 17 Turkey (=29th) 18 Serbia (=29th) 19 Slovakia (32nd) 20 Rep of Ireland (34th) ------------------------ 21 Northern Ireland (36th) 22 Romania (37th) 23 Russia (38th) 24 Iceland (39th) Duffy's equaliser tonight was massive. Tonight's draw and a win against Finland would have us staying in 20th (just) in the September rankings, with Russia closing the gap and moving up to 21st seed, and with only a small number of ranking points between us. For those of us who think it matters whether we are 2nd or 3rd seeds, it'll be tense times ahead in these Nations League games. Plenty of permutations to come as we get more results over the remaining games involving ourselves and the teams around us. But thats the state of play for now. ------------- "I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that" |
Replies:
Posted By: Lenny82
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:36am
Nice one. Every game is important, even if some try to belittle it.
|
rolo wrote:Posted By: Jimmy Raggatip
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:51am
| good work, although I don't fear any of those 2nd pot sides should we have to face them |
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:53am
|
It's very tight between Serbia, Turkey, Slovakia and ourselves. Serbia and Turkey both lost tonight, which is good. And they play each other on Sunday. I was thinking a draw might be the best result there to affect both of them, but a win for either is probably better, they are currently on the exact same points, and two defeats in this window is more damaging. A Serbia win, say, with Turkey then having to play Russia and Serbia again in the reverse fixtures... that would be good for us. ------------- "I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that" |
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 1:01am
People always say this! Couldn't disagree more! Just look at the last campaign, we got Denmark as 2nd seeds - who you say you don't fear - and we finished third and didnt qualify automatically. Also, Ukraine beat Switzerland tonight, and have been in brilliant form in qualifying for the Euros. Plenty of other teams in that pot who I could mention too. Further, none of them will fear us  ------------- "I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that" |
Posted By: Healy52003
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 2:23am
| Were going to get Wales, Denmark and Georgia in our group |
Posted By: ConorMac77
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:21am
Not if we get that 2nd seeding, all the more reason to take this NL group seriously. Still won't stop us getting Georgia again though. ------------- The nation holds it's breath...YES, WE'RE THERE!!! |
Posted By: Denis Irwin
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:30am
|
No "easier" top seeds either. ------------- Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one". Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn |
Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:53am
|
It's really weird thinking as it stands we can't draw Denmark or Wales. Playing them seems like a rule at this stage. I guess this means we'll qualify for a playoff, and guess who we draw there....
|
Posted By: J0E_90
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 10:59am
|
Hey guys, as Rolo says, the equaliser last night was huge for us rankings-wise. We would have remained in 20th but essentially equal to the three below us and with a game more played. Russia now up to 21st although we are closer to Turkey (19th) and Serbia in (18th) than the Russians are to us. A win either way tonight in the Romania (23rd) match v the North (22nd) would also crank up the pressure a good bit with the winner overtaking Russia. A draw would be the perfect result for us as it would result in no points change for either team. An away win for the Czechs (26th) tonight v Slovakia (17th) would also be huge as it would see us and Serbia leapfrog them.
|
Posted By: flaghunter
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 11:53am
|
My type of thread  Rolo, have you found an online calculator (or made your own), to predict how many ranking points each result would give ourselves or our rivals after each upcoming game? Will make my own on excel if not. |
Posted By: JohnSwift
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:20pm
|
A great thread on an important matter to be aware of as the Nations League fixtures progress over the next two months. Fair play to Rolo for summarising everything so clearly.
|
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:27pm
Haven't found a calculator yet but FIFA are using a new system since August 2018 which is much fairer; it isn't based on averaging results over the past number of years anymore, but simply adds and subtracts points from the total based on the result of a game. It's quite straightforward now and the algorithm is explained here: http://resources.fifa.com/image/upload/fifa-world-ranking-technical-explanation-revision.pdf?cloudid=edbm045h0udbwkqew35a" rel="nofollow - https://resources.fifa.com/image/upload/fifa-world-ranking-technical-explanation-revision.pdf?cloudid=edbm045h0udbwkqew35a ------------- "I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that" |
Posted By: Denis Irwin
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:29pm
|
Rolo any chance of throwing up how the rest of the seedings stand at the moment. Just to get an idea of the type of group we could end up with (Best and Worst case etc..)
------------- Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one". Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn |
Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:31pm
|
Also worth remembering that only the results from the last 36 months are taken into account. Current rankings are from July, so between now and November the points from these games are removed: Away draw vs. Georgia Home win vs. Moldova Away win vs. Wales Away draw vs. Denmark Home loss vs. Denmark That away win vs. Wales was worth quite a few points, we need to knock up a few wins just to get those back |
Posted By: J0E_90
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:36pm
Is this definitely still the case since the new format came in in 2018?
|
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:38pm
Not the case anymore, see my post above. ------------- "I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that" |
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:40pm
Yeah ok. I'll have to go through the list
 ------------- "I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that" |
Posted By: Denis Irwin
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:41pm
Nice wan Cheers  ------------- Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one". Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn |
Posted By: J0E_90
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:45pm
|
Just to add, for anyone interested, have found this tool useful for adding/subtracting results to the most recent rankings. http://www.football-rankings.info/2020/08/fifa-ranking-september-2020-preview_16.html
Here is a rough tally for the current situation (rough due to the lack of decimal point information from FIFA). I think my maths is correct. 17 Slovakia 1490 18 Serbia 1486.2 19 Turkey 1485.4 20 Republic of Ireland 1484.5 ------------- 21 Russia 1477.8 22 Northern Ireland 1476 23 Romania 1475 24 Iceland 1465 |
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:54pm
|
Here are Pots 1 to 6, as they stand. Serious drop in quality half way down the 4th pot. 19 places between North Macedonia and Belarus. Currently the seedings for the draw are: 1 Belgium (1st in FIFA rankings) 2 France (2nd) 3 England (4th) 4 Croatia (6th) 5 Portugal (7th) 6 Spain (8th) 7 Switzerland (12th) 8 Italy (13th) 9 Netherlands (14th) 10 Germany (15th) ----------------------- 11 Denmark (16th) 12 Sweden (=17th) 13 Poland (19th) 14 Wales (23rd) 15 Ukraine (24th) 16 Austria (26th) 17 Turkey (=29th) 18 Serbia (=29th) 19 Slovakia (32nd) 20 Rep of Ireland (34th) ------------------------ 21 Northern Ireland (36th) 22 Romania (37th) 23 Russia (38th) 24 Iceland (39th) 25 Norway (44th) 26 Czech Republic (45th) 27 Bosnia and Herzegovina (49th) 28 Scotland (50th) 29 Hungary (52nd) 30 Greece (54th) ------------------------ 31 Finland (58th) 32 Bulgaria (=59th) 33 Montenegro (=64th) 34 Slovenia (=64th) 35 Albania (66th) 36 North Macedonia (68th) 37 Belarus (87th) 38 Georgia (91st) 39 Israel (93rd) 40 Cyprus (95th) --------------------------- 41 Luxembourg (98th) 42 Armenia (102nd) 43 Estonia (104th) 44 Faroe Islands (110th) 45 Azerbaijan (114th) 46 Kosovo (115th) 47 Kazakhstan (118th) 48 Lithuania (=131st) 49 Andorra (135th) 50 Latvia (137th) -------------------------- 51 Moldova (175th) 52 Liechtenstein (180th) 53 Malta (184th) 54 Gibraltar (196th) 55 San Marino (209th) -------------------------
------------- "I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that" |
Posted By: Denis Irwin
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 1:12pm
|
Swiss probably the top seed to get looking at the rest of them (Not that it will be easy) ------------- Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one". Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn |
Posted By: Dr. Pat
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 1:24pm
Thanks for this. Great information. So vital we stay in that second seed spot. I wouldn't be fearful of any of the currently seeded 3rd. ------------- Geremi has let Kilbane in here, cross comes out to Holland, 1:1!! |
Posted By: Joe Stalin
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 1:33pm
|
Love these threads! fair play Rolo. Quick question on the algorthm - it doesnt specify that play off matches for the confederation finals are included? It says the playoffs
for nations league definitely are.
If they are included and they’ve the same weighting as the qualifiers then the Slovakia match will be worth considerably more, almost 2 nations league games 0.15 vs 0.25? |
Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 1:39pm
You're right, apologies. I completely forgot the system changed.
|
Posted By: darmack
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 1:48pm
|
Feckin love this permutations stuff ------------- The dark side.. And the light |
Posted By: Yoco Santos
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 2:39pm
| +1 good work |
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 2:50pm
|
Before last night's games: Seeding - Team - FIFA Ranking points 17 Turkey 1494 18 Serbia 1494 19 Slovakia 1490 20 Rep of Ireland 1486 ------------------------ 21 Northern Ireland 1476 22 Romania 1475 23 Russia 1470 24 Iceland 1465 Duffy's equaliser meant we only dropped 1.5 points, rather than 9. Russia beat Serbia; a gain of 7.8 points for Russia, a loss of 7.8 for Serbia. Turkey lost to Hungary. A loss of 8.6 points for Turkey. The others above didnt play last night. So that group of teams after last night's matches now look like this: 17 Slovakia 1490 18 Serbia 1486.2 19 Turkey 1485.4 20 Rep of Ireland 1484.5 ------------------------ 21 Russia 1477.8 22 Northern Ireland 1476 23 Romania 1475 24 Iceland 1465 Very tight. We'd be out of the top 20 now if we had lost last night.
------------- "I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that" |
Posted By: Fozz
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 4:27pm
|
Very interesting. The North play Romania later so we'll see movement for both of those most likely. |
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 5:05pm
A win for either will give them 7.5 points, and the other will lose 7.5 points. A draw in that game will see both of them take 0 points from the game. That wouldn't be the case in other drawn games (teams gain and lose points in a drawn game) but in that match both teams would take 0 in the event of a draw. So a draw there would be best for us. ------------- "I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that" |
Posted By: Dalymount79
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 8:59pm
|
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:32pm
|
Late equaliser for Northern Ireland. ------------- "I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that" |
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:41pm
|
Seedings Update: Before tonight's matches: 17 Slovakia 1490 18 Serbia 1486.2 19 Turkey 1485.4 20 Rep of Ireland 1484.5 ------------------------ 21 Russia 1477.8 22 Northern Ireland 1476 23 Romania 1475 24 Iceland 1465 Slovakia lost to Czech Republic tonight, and so they drop 8.1 points. Northern Ireland and Romania drew. They both get 0 points, no gain or loss of points. So, after tonight's matches: 17 Serbia 1486.2 18 Turkey 1485.4 19 Rep of Ireland 1484.5 20 Slovakia 1481.9 ------------------------ 21 Russia 1477.8 22 Northern Ireland 1476 23 Romania 1475 24 Iceland 1465 ------------- "I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that" |
Posted By: Liam Green
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:42pm
Reading your posts earlier Rolo so that’s a good result for our rankings ya ? NI were very good playing with 10 men for 50mins
|
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:45pm
See the post above yours. Didnt see NI game. I was watching Slovakia v Czech Rep in first half then Italy Bosnia in second half. Slovakia are beatable, Bosnia would be very tough if we make it to the final.
|
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:54pm
|
Very tight between Ireland the teams around us. Just a further update to emphasise the importance of these Nations League games for the World Cup seedings: If Ireland beat Finland, thats a gain of 6.1 points. A draw and we drop 1.4 points. Lose and we drop 8.9 points.
|
Posted By: Liam Green
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:55pm
Cheers for that. All Good
|
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 4:50am
|
Seedings Update after 1st Round of Nations League: Just one game last night involving the teams in the mix for the 2nd Pot. Iceland were beaten by England. Thus the former dropped 4.8 points. So, on completion of one round of Nations League games, the relevant seedings are as follows: 17 Serbia 1486.2 18 Turkey 1485.4 19 Rep of Ireland 1484.5 20 Slovakia 1481.9 ------------------------ 21 Russia 1477.8 22 Northern Ireland 1476 23 Romania 1475 24 Iceland 1460.2 It's good news for us that Turkey, Serbia and Russia are in the same Nations League group. In every single round two of those three will play each other, and so they'll keep taking points off each other. Today it's Serbia against Turkey. We've had some very favourable results in the first round, with most of the teams around us slipping up. But we need to start picking up points. A win needed today against Finland. |
Posted By: Lenny82
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 8:27am
|
If we win and Serbia v Turkey finishes a draw, I assume we leapfrog them in to 17th? Are those in 16th, 15th, 14th, etc. Miles ahead of the group you have listed?
|
Posted By: Fozz
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 12:30pm
I like yer style...let's aim to reach Pot One
 |
Posted By: cildaratown
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 6:53pm
| we in trouble now? Not that that team would have a hope of qualifying |
Posted By: FrankosHereNow
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 6:55pm
------------- YBIG Quiz Champion 2016, 2017 & 2018. As You Were Three in a row |
Posted By: Denis Irwin
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 6:57pm
Some amount of knee jerk sh*te tonight ------------- Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one". Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn |
Posted By: max
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 6:59pm
| When is the draw? |
Posted By: Denis Irwin
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 7:00pm
End of November I think ------------- Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one". Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn |
Posted By: FrankosHereNow
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 7:01pm
------------- YBIG Quiz Champion 2016, 2017 & 2018. As You Were Three in a row |
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 7:25pm
Still plenty of games to go. I'll work out the latest seedings, but even if its bad, still a long way to go.
|
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 7:34pm
|
Seedings Update after the early games today: Ireland's loss to Finland sees us lose a significant 8.9 points. Russia's win against Hungary gives them 6.5 points. So, the seedings currently are: 17 Serbia 1486.2 18 Turkey 1485.4 19 Russia 1484.3 20 Slovakia 1481.9 ------------------------ 21 Northern Ireland 1476 22 Rep of Ireland 1475.6 23 Romania 1475 24 Iceland 1460.2 Serbia play Turkey at 19.45. A win for Serbia would give them 7.7 points, and Turkey would lose the same amount. A draw would give Serbia 0.2 points and Turkey would lose the same amount. A win for Turkey would give them 7.3 points, and Serbia would lose the same amount.
|
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 06 Sep 2020 at 9:45pm
|
Seedings Update: Serbia 0-0 Turkey 17 Serbia 1486.4 18 Turkey 1485.2 19 Russia 1484.3 20 Slovakia 1481.9 ------------------------ 21 Northern Ireland 1476 22 Rep of Ireland 1475.6 23 Romania 1475 24 Iceland 1460.2 |
Posted By: Joe Stalin
Date Posted: 07 Sep 2020 at 12:04am
| Looks like our play-off v. Slovakia could have added significance now.. |
Posted By: avfc
Date Posted: 07 Sep 2020 at 12:08am
|
we would be very weak second seeds should we make it to pot 2. Always a danger of NL or Germany dropping into pot 2 which would make pot 3 job impossible
|
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 07 Sep 2020 at 1:12am
Was thinking this earlier too. Russia will probably kick on now, two wins from two already and we aren't going to catch them. We need two of the teams above what I call the trap door to slip up. Pinning hopes on Slovakia and one of Turkey and Serbia. I was thinking the draw between Turkey and Serbia wasn't ideal. Probably need one of those two to have a very poor Nations League and lose lots of games. But now if Russia could maybe continue their run and beat both of those teams home and away, that draw wouldn't be too bad. We also need the teams below us to have a poor Nations League. We need Austria to beat Romania tomorrow and Norway to beat NI, ideally. As long as Romania and NI don't win, that'll be helpful, but defeats would be much better.
|
Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 07 Sep 2020 at 2:00pm
Assuming the updated scores are correct, and these are used for the Slovakia playoff, this is what happens.
IRL win -> IRL new score 1489 (+13) IRL win -> SVK new score 1469 (-13) SVK win -> IRL new score 1464 (-12) SVK win -> SVK new score 1494 (+12) |
Posted By: Green Man
Date Posted: 07 Sep 2020 at 2:58pm
|
What date are the rankings taken into account, with all 5 of our remaining games this year being used? Hard to see us reaching 20th in that ranking table above unless we beat Slovakia. |
Posted By: irishmufc
Date Posted: 07 Sep 2020 at 9:19pm
|
@Rolo Assume we finish third in our NL group, does that make much difference as to if we finish 2nd or 4th seedings wise? Is it more dependant on other teams around us in different groups? ------------- Wings? They're only the band The Beatles could have been. |
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 2:03am
No, it's based on FIFA rankings, not Nations League standings.
|
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 2:18am
|
Seedings Update: Slovakia drew with Israel; Slovakia drop 3.2 points. Northern Ireland lost to Norway. Northern Ireland drop 7.6 points. Romania beat Austria. Romania gain 7.7 points. 17 Serbia 1486.4 18 Turkey 1485.2 19 Russia 1484.3 20 Romania 1482.7 ------------------------ 21 Slovakia 1478.7 22 Rep of Ireland 1475.6 23 Northern Ireland 1468.4 24 Iceland 1460.2 |
Posted By: RKeane
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 3:11am
|
The Slovakia game is colossal ------------- YESSSS! IT'S THERE |
Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 8:15am
I'm not 100% sure about that. That's using the points from before Round 1. If Round 2 is actually calculated using the updated (but unpublished) points, the table looks a little different.
14 Poland 1557.8 15 Ukraine 1550.2 16 Wales 1539.8 17 Austria 1505.9 18 Serbia 1486.0 19 Turkey 1485.0 20 Rep. Ireland 1484.7 ------------------------ 21 Slovakia 1483.0 22 Russia 1479.0 23 N. Ireland 1476.0 24 Romania 1468.0 |
Posted By: darmack
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 9:41am
Please remain pessimistic until further notice. ------------- The dark side.. And the light |
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 11:46am
You would hope that indeed they do use the updated (but unpublished) ranking points after each particular match, which would definitely lead to a different table. Im having a look at the old rankings to work out if they have done it game by game previously. I was under the impression that they were doing it round by round, but hopefully you're right, as it makes absolutely the most sense.
|
Posted By: Cymro
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 2:44pm
Was looking at this myself to scout potential opponents in the draw and this implies they do not use rankings updated on a game by game basis for points allocation: http://www.football-rankings.info/2020/08/fifa-ranking-september-2020-preview_16.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.football-rankings.info/2020/08/fifa-ranking-september-2020-preview_16.html Note that he has set out the points for the second round of matches in advance of the first round of matches being played. I don't think he'd have done that if the results of the first round would impact the points available for the second round. So I would guess that the former table is indeed correct at present, although I am no statistician. Any chance of Norway being in pot 2? Look a nightmare draw from pot 3 at this stage. You might even want to be in pot 3 just to avoid them! Additionally, the table he posted seems to have Ireland gaining 0.2 points from the two games which were a draw and defeat. I don't think that would be right under any system.
|
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 5:36pm
Yeah its confusing. He does imply that the 1st Round has no impact on the 2nd Round, but the FIFA rankings resource indicates that it is done after each match (which is the way it should be done!):
P = Pbefore + I * (W – We) Pbefore: Points before the match I: importance of match
W: result of the match We: expected result of the match We = 1 / (10(-dr/600) + 1) Example: Team A has 1300 points before the match and wins a continental qualifier against team B that has 1500 points. For team A the formula is: P=1300+25*(1–(1/(10 exp (-(1300–1500)/600) +1))) For team B the formula is: P = 1500 + 25 * (0- (1 / 10(-(1500-1300)/600) + 1)) Thus, team A wins 17 points and has P = 1317 points after the match. Team B loses the same amount of points and thus ends up with 1483 points after the match. |
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 5:40pm
|
Basically this can be easily sorted by running a few calculations on previous rankings (but would have to go back to late 2019 as there have been no games since, not significant games anyway). Will try do some later if I get a chance, to clear up the confusion. So for now, just disregard my table, but not the bit about us being in a real scrap to get into the second pot of seeds!
|
Posted By: darmack
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 5:42pm
|
It used to be around the middle of the month when Fifa used to update the rankings, so maybe next week should know for definite. ------------- The dark side.. And the light |
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 5:45pm
That is an easier way of finding out alright! But will have a look later anyway if I get a chance, at the old rankings, and run some calculations. Interested to know. Some teething problems with the permutations thread currently so, bit like the team under the new management But both will come good soon
 |
Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 09 Sep 2020 at 7:38am
|
Sorting error on my side, the points scores were right, but assigned to the wrong teams Here is the updated rankings after Round 2
|
Posted By: Fozz
Date Posted: 09 Sep 2020 at 9:39am
Nice work. How many more games have we to play before the pots of the WC draw are set? Is it all 4 NL games and the one or two playoffs? Or just the next 3-game window and then we're done? |
Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 09 Sep 2020 at 9:41am
4 NL games, and 1 or 2 Euro Playoffs.
If we beat Slovakia we will overtake them and Romania, but Romania also have a playoff so nothing is set in stone yet. |
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 09 Sep 2020 at 12:11pm
So the points I had assigned were correct!? These are the same points as I had above. They don't do it after each particular game so?
|
Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 09 Sep 2020 at 2:02pm
My numbers were a few decimals off, but close. With only two games the possible scores can't vary that much. I also need to see when FIFA bring out their updated scores, and then work around on my sheet, depending on when exactly they round and use rounded numbers can tweek the results.
|
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 3:50pm
|
Updated (correct!) seedings for the draw: Current seedings based on September rankings published next week. I actually had them right. One issue is Ireland are one point less than I had them. I had Ireland at 1475.6 and so marked them up to 1476 but actually I had based that on a starting point of 1486 before the games were played but they had started on 1485 point something and been marked up to 1486, so that affected the sums. Portugal and Spain overtook Croatia. Switzerland dropped 3 places. Very tight at the bottom of Pot 1. Could yet be a big name in Pot 2. Luxembourg move up to Pot 4. Cyprus drop down to Pot 5. 1 Belgium 1773 2 France 1744 3 England 1664 4 Portugal 1653 5 Spain 1642 6 Croatia 1628 7 Italy 1612 8 Netherlands 1603 9 Germany 1602 10 Switzerland 1600 ----------------------- 11 Denmark 1593 12 Sweden 1567 13 Poland 1558 14 Wales 1550 15 Ukraine 1539 16 Austria 1505 17 Serbia 1486 18 Turkey 1485 19 Russia 1485 20 Romania 1483 ------------------------ 21 Slovakia 1479 22 Rep of Ireland 1475 23 Northern Ireland 1468 24 Iceland 1457 25 Norway 1452 26 Czech Republic 1446 27 Scotland 1428 28 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1426 29 Hungary 1418 30 Greece 1413 ------------------------ 31 Finland 1390 32 Bulgaria 1378 33 Montenegro 1376 34 Slovenia 1368 35 North Macedonia 1351 36 Albania 1351 37 Belarus 1282 38 Georgia 1274 39 Israel 1265 40 Luxembourg 1237 --------------------------- 41 Cyprus 1236 42 Armenia 1215 43 Faroe Islands 1191 44 Estonia 1188 45 Azerbaijan 1179 46 Kosovo 1167 47 Kazakhstan 1156 48 Lithuania 1093 49 Latvia 1076 50 Andorra 1076 -------------------------- 51 Moldova 959 52 Liechtenstein 932 53 Malta 917 54 Gibraltar 886 55 San Marino 811 ------------------------- ------------- "I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that" |
Posted By: Baldrick
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 4:13pm
|
a good october for us will be crucial not only for next summer but also for the winter of 2022. Really is one of the most important months for irish football on the field and unfortunately it comes really early in a reign that is about rebuilding the whole setup.. ------------- AKA pedantic kunt |
Posted By: Fozz
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 4:19pm
Yep, we play two teams ranked above us in quick succession. If losses pile up then so does our fall further into Pot 3. This upcoming three-game window is therefore important for several reasons and can define the next two years really.
|
Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 4:29pm
Where did you get these from? I'm working off two different models and the numbers don't match either
|
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 4:46pm
I actually compiled the seedings list myself, based on the September FIFA rankings. They are published on the 17th September but are on the football rankings info site. They match with the ranking points I had worked out over the last week or so for the teams in 17th to 24th place. But he has ranking points done for all 210 teams so I compiled a complete seedings list for the 55 European teams. ------------- "I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that" |
Posted By: rolo
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 4:47pm
Massive month next month for us. Three crucial games. ------------- "I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that" |
Posted By: TBWRA
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 5:05pm
|
Not even a decent trip in that poxi pot 2 ------------- "The Football Grounds of Europe" about Dalymount that :- "You walk down lanes you'd expect to find a backstreet mechanic only to stumble onto a national stadium steeped in tradition and history" |
Posted By: gmfc90
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 5:08pm
Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Romania and Serbia would be quality. Vienna is good craic too ------------- Danger here, OH NO |
Posted By: Denis Irwin
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 5:11pm
|
Switzerland Austria Ireland Luxembourg Latvia Malta Wouldn't be the worst of groups. (There's no "handy" 2nd seeds IMO and Swiss probably the top seed to get to a certain extent given the other options)
------------- Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one". Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn |
Posted By: Baldrick
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 5:14pm
Jaysis the football trips are so far out of my mind at the moment  ------------- AKA pedantic kunt |
Posted By: darmack
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 5:29pm
|
2nd place isn't automatically qualified either is it? Wouldn't like a play off against any of those 2nd seed teams. ------------- The dark side.. And the light |
Posted By: ConorMac77
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 5:34pm
We're bound to get Denmark again!  ------------- The nation holds it's breath...YES, WE'RE THERE!!! |
Posted By: Baldrick
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 6:31pm
I would bite your hand off now for a playoff against any of those 2nd pot teams. We are hardly going to win the group. ------------- AKA pedantic kunt |
Posted By: djhegzy
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 7:30pm
| TBH not much in it between the pot 2 and pot 3 teams, wouldnt bother me too much if ended up in pot 3 |
Posted By: irishmufc
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 8:01pm
|
So in layman's terms what would be the minimum results we would need in the 3 October games in order for us to bump ourselves into Pot 2 for the draw? Could a playoff win and 2 draws in the Wales/Finland games be enough or would we most likely need 4 points in the NL double header? ------------- Wings? They're only the band The Beatles could have been. |
Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 8:04pm
That's just impossible to answer tbh. It all depends on how we do and other games, too much variables for my poor spreadsheet to answer.
Realistically we need to beat Slovakia, get 4 points from Bulgaria and Finland, and at least 2 from Wales. Can´t say for sure but I think that would make us safe. |
Posted By: irishmufc
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 8:19pm
Cheers ------------- Wings? They're only the band The Beatles could have been. |
Posted By: grannyrule
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 8:21pm
I'd agree with this. 2/3rd seeds are pretty much the same. I wouldn't cry if we ended up as 3rd seeds. ------------- The only way is up |
Posted By: Lenny82
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 9:01pm
Hi Mick
|
Posted By: irishmufc
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 9:14pm
|
------------- Wings? They're only the band The Beatles could have been. |
Posted By: Baldrick
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 9:20pm
|
------------- AKA pedantic kunt |
Posted By: darmack
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2020 at 12:10pm
|
Spot on with the calculations and points total it seems. Hopefully next month is better for us. ------------- The dark side.. And the light |
Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2020 at 4:09pm
|
I found the flaws in my spreadsheet, but now have been able to cross check it and have fixed it. One important thing about next month, out of the teams from 17-24 which are very close on points, teams 21-24 are all in Euro Playoff games, the rest are all in friendlies.
Qualification games are statistically 2.5 times more important than friendlies, so this could either push us up the rankings quite nicely or push us down to where it is unlikely to reach 20 again. Very important month ahead |
Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 28 Sep 2020 at 12:43pm
|
Best case scenario for us to get the most points and jump up the rankings ladder Path A: BUL to beat ISL in final Path B: IRL to beat NIR in final Path C: ISR to beat NOR in final Path D: KVX to beat GEO in final |
Posted By: flaghunter
Date Posted: 30 Sep 2020 at 5:06pm
| Any difference points wise if the Slovak game is decided in 90, 120 or pens? |
Posted By: Denis Irwin
Date Posted: 30 Sep 2020 at 5:22pm
|
.. ------------- Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one". Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn |
Posted By: BigStrongMan
Date Posted: 30 Sep 2020 at 5:55pm
------------- PM me for all forum moderation queries. |
Posted By: davereilly
Date Posted: 30 Sep 2020 at 5:57pm
No difference between 90 and 120 mins. Pens gives you less points if you win, but you also lose less if you lose on pens
EDIT: Losing on pens gives you the same points as a draw. Winning on pens gives you points half way between a win and draw |
Posted By: flaghunter
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2020 at 10:03am
|
Strange one - I thought whatever points one team gained, the other lost. This would not be the case in the pen shootout scenario so?
|