2022 World Cup - Permutations - see page 17 |
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rolo
Moderator Group Joined: 05 Aug 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 9202 |
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Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:22am |
The draw for the UEFA qualifying campaign for the 2022 World Cup is to be held on 29th November (subject to confirmation).
Ten groups. Some with six teams, some with five. Group winners qualify. Runners up go into the playoffs with the two best Nations League group winners who finish outside the top 2 in their group. As it's a World Cup, seedings for the draw are based on the November 2020 FIFA rankings. So, for Ireland to be second seeds, we would need to be at least the 20th highest ranked European team when the Nations League has finished. And, as per every single campaign with Ireland, we are going to have a nervous run-in to when the seedings are finalised. In the current FIFA rankings, we are the 20th highest European team, right above the trap door, and with plenty of teams very close below us. Currently the seedings for the draw are: 1 Belgium (1st in FIFA rankings) 2 France (2nd) 3 England (4th) 4 Croatia (6th) 5 Portugal (7th) 6 Spain (8th) 7 Switzerland (12th) 8 Italy (13th) 9 Netherlands (14th) 10 Germany (15th) ----------------------- 11 Denmark (16th) 12 Sweden (=17th) 13 Poland (19th) 14 Wales (23rd) 15 Ukraine (24th) 16 Austria (26th) 17 Turkey (=29th) 18 Serbia (=29th) 19 Slovakia (32nd) 20 Rep of Ireland (34th) ------------------------ 21 Northern Ireland (36th) 22 Romania (37th) 23 Russia (38th) 24 Iceland (39th) Duffy's equaliser tonight was massive. Tonight's draw and a win against Finland would have us staying in 20th (just) in the September rankings, with Russia closing the gap and moving up to 21st seed, and with only a small number of ranking points between us. For those of us who think it matters whether we are 2nd or 3rd seeds, it'll be tense times ahead in these Nations League games. Plenty of permutations to come as we get more results over the remaining games involving ourselves and the teams around us. But thats the state of play for now. Edited by rolo - 04 Sep 2020 at 2:23pm |
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"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"
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Lenny82
Liam Brady Joined: 20 Aug 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 2914 |
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Nice one. Every game is important, even if some try to belittle it.
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Jimmy Raggatip
500 Club la la la Joined: 28 May 2018 Status: Offline Points: 727 |
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good work, although I don't fear any of those 2nd pot sides should we have to face them
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rolo
Moderator Group Joined: 05 Aug 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 9202 |
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It's very tight between Serbia, Turkey, Slovakia and ourselves.
Serbia and Turkey both lost tonight, which is good. And they play each other on Sunday. I was thinking a draw might be the best result there to affect both of them, but a win for either is probably better, they are currently on the exact same points, and two defeats in this window is more damaging. A Serbia win, say, with Turkey then having to play Russia and Serbia again in the reverse fixtures... that would be good for us.
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"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"
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rolo
Moderator Group Joined: 05 Aug 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 9202 |
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People always say this! Couldn't disagree more! Just look at the last campaign, we got Denmark as 2nd seeds - who you say you don't fear - and we finished third and didnt qualify automatically. Also, Ukraine beat Switzerland tonight, and have been in brilliant form in qualifying for the Euros. Plenty of other teams in that pot who I could mention too. Further, none of them will fear us
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"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"
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Healy52003
Liam Brady Joined: 02 Dec 2015 Status: Offline Points: 2001 |
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Were going to get Wales, Denmark and Georgia in our group
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ConorMac77
Ray Houghton Joined: 22 Apr 2015 Location: Newry Status: Offline Points: 3691 |
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Not if we get that 2nd seeding, all the more reason to take this NL group seriously. Still won't stop us getting Georgia again though.
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The nation holds it's breath...YES, WE'RE THERE!!!
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Denis Irwin
Robbie Keane Stay Home & watch Lethal Weapon Joined: 03 Feb 2008 Location: Ath Cliath Status: Online Points: 37952 |
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No "easier" top seeds either.
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Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one".
Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn |
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davereilly
Kevin Kilbane Joined: 24 Jan 2018 Location: High Helvetica Status: Offline Points: 298 |
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It's really weird thinking as it stands we can't draw Denmark or Wales. Playing them seems like a rule at this stage.
I guess this means we'll qualify for a playoff, and guess who we draw there....
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J0E_90
Joe Lapira Joined: 18 Jan 2015 Location: Meath Status: Offline Points: 5 |
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Hey guys, as Rolo says, the equaliser last night was huge for us rankings-wise. We would have remained in 20th but essentially equal to the three below us and with a game more played.
Russia now up to 21st although we are closer to Turkey (19th) and Serbia in (18th) than the Russians are to us. A win either way tonight in the Romania (23rd) match v the North (22nd) would also crank up the pressure a good bit with the winner overtaking Russia. A draw would be the perfect result for us as it would result in no points change for either team. An away win for the Czechs (26th) tonight v Slovakia (17th) would also be huge as it would see us and Serbia leapfrog them.
Edited by J0E_90 - 04 Sep 2020 at 2:57pm |
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flaghunter
Kevin Kilbane Joined: 11 Nov 2014 Status: Offline Points: 329 |
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My type of thread Rolo, have you found an online calculator (or made your own), to predict how many ranking points each result would give ourselves or our rivals after each upcoming game? Will make my own on excel if not. |
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JohnSwift
Kevin Kilbane Joined: 03 Jun 2016 Status: Offline Points: 327 |
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A great thread on an important matter to be aware of as the Nations League fixtures progress over the next two months.
Fair play to Rolo for summarising everything so clearly.
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rolo
Moderator Group Joined: 05 Aug 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 9202 |
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Haven't found a calculator yet but FIFA are using a new system since August 2018 which is much fairer; it isn't based on averaging results over the past number of years anymore, but simply adds and subtracts points from the total based on the result of a game. It's quite straightforward now and the algorithm is explained here: |
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"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"
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Denis Irwin
Robbie Keane Stay Home & watch Lethal Weapon Joined: 03 Feb 2008 Location: Ath Cliath Status: Online Points: 37952 |
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Rolo any chance of throwing up how the rest of the seedings stand at the moment. Just to get an idea of the type of group we could end up with (Best and Worst case etc..)
Edited by Denis Irwin - 04 Sep 2020 at 12:35pm |
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Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one".
Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn |
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davereilly
Kevin Kilbane Joined: 24 Jan 2018 Location: High Helvetica Status: Offline Points: 298 |
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Also worth remembering that only the results from the last 36 months are taken into account. Current rankings are from July, so between now and November the points from these games are removed:
Away draw vs. Georgia Home win vs. Moldova Away win vs. Wales Away draw vs. Denmark Home loss vs. Denmark That away win vs. Wales was worth quite a few points, we need to knock up a few wins just to get those back |
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J0E_90
Joe Lapira Joined: 18 Jan 2015 Location: Meath Status: Offline Points: 5 |
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Is this definitely still the case since the new format came in in 2018?
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rolo
Moderator Group Joined: 05 Aug 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 9202 |
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Not the case anymore, see my post above.
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"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"
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rolo
Moderator Group Joined: 05 Aug 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 9202 |
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Yeah ok. I'll have to go through the list
Edited by rolo - 04 Sep 2020 at 12:40pm |
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"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"
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