2022 World Cup - Permutations - see page 17 |
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irishmufc
Robbie Keane I love Vulvas Joined: 09 Aug 2011 Location: Dublin Status: Online Points: 25087 |
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@Rolo
Assume we finish third in our NL group, does that make much difference as to if we finish 2nd or 4th seedings wise? Is it more dependant on other teams around us in different groups?
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Wings? They're only the band The Beatles could have been.
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rolo
Moderator Group Joined: 05 Aug 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 9202 |
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No, it's based on FIFA rankings, not Nations League standings.
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rolo
Moderator Group Joined: 05 Aug 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 9202 |
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Seedings Update:
Slovakia drew with Israel; Slovakia drop 3.2 points. Northern Ireland lost to Norway. Northern Ireland drop 7.6 points. Romania beat Austria. Romania gain 7.7 points. 17 Serbia 1486.4 18 Turkey 1485.2 19 Russia 1484.3 20 Romania 1482.7 ------------------------ 21 Slovakia 1478.7 22 Rep of Ireland 1475.6 23 Northern Ireland 1468.4 24 Iceland 1460.2 |
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RKeane
Davey Langan Joined: 10 Mar 2013 Location: Dublin Status: Offline Points: 886 |
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The Slovakia game is colossal
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YESSSS! IT'S THERE
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davereilly
Kevin Kilbane Joined: 24 Jan 2018 Location: High Helvetica Status: Offline Points: 298 |
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I'm not 100% sure about that. That's using the points from before Round 1. If Round 2 is actually calculated using the updated (but unpublished) points, the table looks a little different.
14 Poland 1557.8 15 Ukraine 1550.2 16 Wales 1539.8 17 Austria 1505.9 18 Serbia 1486.0 19 Turkey 1485.0 20 Rep. Ireland 1484.7 ------------------------ 21 Slovakia 1483.0 22 Russia 1479.0 23 N. Ireland 1476.0 24 Romania 1468.0 |
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darmack
Ray Houghton Joined: 24 Mar 2011 Location: Dublin Status: Offline Points: 4694 |
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Please remain pessimistic until further notice.
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The dark side.. And the light
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rolo
Moderator Group Joined: 05 Aug 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 9202 |
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You would hope that indeed they do use the updated (but unpublished) ranking points after each particular match, which would definitely lead to a different table. Im having a look at the old rankings to work out if they have done it game by game previously. I was under the impression that they were doing it round by round, but hopefully you're right, as it makes absolutely the most sense.
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Cymro
Ronnie Whelan Joined: 06 Sep 2020 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 74 |
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Was looking at this myself to scout potential opponents in the draw and this implies they do not use rankings updated on a game by game basis for points allocation: Note that he has set out the points for the second round of matches in advance of the first round of matches being played. I don't think he'd have done that if the results of the first round would impact the points available for the second round. So I would guess that the former table is indeed correct at present, although I am no statistician. Any chance of Norway being in pot 2? Look a nightmare draw from pot 3 at this stage. You might even want to be in pot 3 just to avoid them! Additionally, the table he posted seems to have Ireland gaining 0.2 points from the two games which were a draw and defeat. I don't think that would be right under any system.
Edited by Cymro - 08 Sep 2020 at 2:50pm |
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rolo
Moderator Group Joined: 05 Aug 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 9202 |
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Yeah its confusing. He does imply that the 1st Round has no impact on the 2nd Round, but the FIFA rankings resource indicates that it is done after each match (which is the way it should be done!):
P = Pbefore + I * (W – We) Pbefore: Points before the match I: importance of match
W: result of the match We: expected result of the match We = 1 / (10(-dr/600) + 1) Example: Team A has 1300 points before the match and wins a continental qualifier against team B that has 1500 points. For team A the formula is: P=1300+25*(1–(1/(10 exp (-(1300–1500)/600) +1))) For team B the formula is: P = 1500 + 25 * (0- (1 / 10(-(1500-1300)/600) + 1)) Thus, team A wins 17 points and has P = 1317 points after the match. Team B loses the same amount of points and thus ends up with 1483 points after the match. |
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rolo
Moderator Group Joined: 05 Aug 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 9202 |
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Basically this can be easily sorted by running a few calculations on previous rankings (but would have to go back to late 2019 as there have been no games since, not significant games anyway).
Will try do some later if I get a chance, to clear up the confusion. So for now, just disregard my table, but not the bit about us being in a real scrap to get into the second pot of seeds!
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darmack
Ray Houghton Joined: 24 Mar 2011 Location: Dublin Status: Offline Points: 4694 |
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It used to be around the middle of the month when Fifa used to update the rankings, so maybe next week should know for definite.
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The dark side.. And the light
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rolo
Moderator Group Joined: 05 Aug 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 9202 |
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That is an easier way of finding out alright! But will have a look later anyway if I get a chance, at the old rankings, and run some calculations. Interested to know. Some teething problems with the permutations thread currently so, bit like the team under the new management But both will come good soon
Edited by rolo - 08 Sep 2020 at 5:47pm |
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davereilly
Kevin Kilbane Joined: 24 Jan 2018 Location: High Helvetica Status: Offline Points: 298 |
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Sorting error on my side, the points scores were right, but assigned to the wrong teams
Here is the updated rankings after Round 2
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Fozz
Liam Brady Joined: 08 Oct 2019 Location: Dublin Status: Offline Points: 2248 |
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Nice work. How many more games have we to play before the pots of the WC draw are set? Is it all 4 NL games and the one or two playoffs? Or just the next 3-game window and then we're done? |
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davereilly
Kevin Kilbane Joined: 24 Jan 2018 Location: High Helvetica Status: Offline Points: 298 |
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4 NL games, and 1 or 2 Euro Playoffs.
If we beat Slovakia we will overtake them and Romania, but Romania also have a playoff so nothing is set in stone yet. |
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rolo
Moderator Group Joined: 05 Aug 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 9202 |
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So the points I had assigned were correct!? These are the same points as I had above. They don't do it after each particular game so?
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davereilly
Kevin Kilbane Joined: 24 Jan 2018 Location: High Helvetica Status: Offline Points: 298 |
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My numbers were a few decimals off, but close. With only two games the possible scores can't vary that much. I also need to see when FIFA bring out their updated scores, and then work around on my sheet, depending on when exactly they round and use rounded numbers can tweek the results.
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rolo
Moderator Group Joined: 05 Aug 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 9202 |
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Updated (correct!) seedings for the draw:
Current seedings based on September rankings published next week. I actually had them right. One issue is Ireland are one point less than I had them. I had Ireland at 1475.6 and so marked them up to 1476 but actually I had based that on a starting point of 1486 before the games were played but they had started on 1485 point something and been marked up to 1486, so that affected the sums. Portugal and Spain overtook Croatia. Switzerland dropped 3 places. Very tight at the bottom of Pot 1. Could yet be a big name in Pot 2. Luxembourg move up to Pot 4. Cyprus drop down to Pot 5. 1 Belgium 1773 2 France 1744 3 England 1664 4 Portugal 1653 5 Spain 1642 6 Croatia 1628 7 Italy 1612 8 Netherlands 1603 9 Germany 1602 10 Switzerland 1600 ----------------------- 11 Denmark 1593 12 Sweden 1567 13 Poland 1558 14 Wales 1550 15 Ukraine 1539 16 Austria 1505 17 Serbia 1486 18 Turkey 1485 19 Russia 1485 20 Romania 1483 ------------------------ 21 Slovakia 1479 22 Rep of Ireland 1475 23 Northern Ireland 1468 24 Iceland 1457 25 Norway 1452 26 Czech Republic 1446 27 Scotland 1428 28 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1426 29 Hungary 1418 30 Greece 1413 ------------------------ 31 Finland 1390 32 Bulgaria 1378 33 Montenegro 1376 34 Slovenia 1368 35 North Macedonia 1351 36 Albania 1351 37 Belarus 1282 38 Georgia 1274 39 Israel 1265 40 Luxembourg 1237 --------------------------- 41 Cyprus 1236 42 Armenia 1215 43 Faroe Islands 1191 44 Estonia 1188 45 Azerbaijan 1179 46 Kosovo 1167 47 Kazakhstan 1156 48 Lithuania 1093 49 Latvia 1076 50 Andorra 1076 -------------------------- 51 Moldova 959 52 Liechtenstein 932 53 Malta 917 54 Gibraltar 886 55 San Marino 811 ------------------------- Edited by rolo - 10 Sep 2020 at 4:16pm |
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"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"
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