Coronavirus - Remain Calm. Do Not Panic

What a boomer.

YOU are on here telling everybody you are high risk!

If you are actually high risk you should have got the vaccine already or been contacted. 

If you made that up like some of your other stories that’s not really my fault. 

On the one hand you have the British Medical association and a separate report from Israel supporting the delayed second vaccine as one does gives you a high efficiency over a number of weeks.

But then we have an ex MMA fighter who posts on YBIG saying one dose is not worth a f**k, in his words, it’s like a half pint. 

Both arguments are compelling and backed up by sufficient data and due diligence.

I’m not sure who I should believe. 

I’m impressed with what I’ve watched of the press briefing by Boris and Co this evening. It confirms that they consider the virus to be endemic - its here to stay and is another dose that needs to be managed. Also, the loosening of their restrictions isn’t tied to the R number, which becomes less important as the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated. This approach effectively rules out the idea of Zero Covid on these islands.

In some respects, the UK approach and the rapid rollout of their vaccine puts the pressure on the Irish Government to take a more considered approach and adopt less draconian restrictions. We live in hope!

Denmark are being praised for their vaccine roll out as being one of the best in Europe and are doing it within 6 weeks. 

The UK gave out 17M doses (the first one) before Countries like Japan / Aus / NZ have even administered 1 single dose to anybody. 

Denmark seem to be banking on supply staying consistent. SAGE modelling still seem to be predicting a fourth wave in UK under various assumptions. Ideally that any further wave won't lead to hospitalisations and or deaths.

I don't know, but we should hope it works

I am far from convinced it will and indeed the British Government itself is effectively saying it won't as they are predicting at least another 30k deaths - which is not success

A lot of it depends on things we don't yet know, such as how much vaccines prevent transmission in the real world, and what the actual take up of the vaccines will be - Israel is already running into the problems I flagged - where a lot of young people are not bothering to get the vaccine, this was on C4 News tonight

In the longer term it will depend on how long vaccines last, and no super variant arising 

We should also understand why the Tories are doing what they're doing - the Johnson government handled the pandemic as disastrously as any government in the world and is prepared to gamble in the hope that they will look good if this works

Or they are playing to a constituency who have been suckered into a mindset of "we need hope", rather than caution and honesty

Plus they're desperate to steal an economic march on Europe, no matte the cost in human terms

They gambled with early approval of vaccines and were proved right on that - I do trust British science as a broad institution - but this is a much different situation which is overwhelmingly a political decision, not a science one

Even if it works - and the definition of what "works" will be very much in the eye of the beholder (as I said 30k dead would certainly not count as success in my eyes, as I take human life seriously) - it's hardly responsible government - it's a desperate gamble

I don't know what percentage of the English population will be vaccinated come June 21st - but if it's a significant percentage, ie. greater than say, 30%, and if they go ahead with releasing the remaining restrictions, as they are saying, that would be a let it rip scenario among the remaining unvaccinated

That would be a very bad idea I think

I think the Tories are also willing to go with this because their own voters are so stupid and if even if goes wrong, or lifting of restrictions has to be pushed back, their media is so compliant and clientilist that they will spin it positively

It does at least contain provisions for stopping the progressive lifting of restrictions if things don't go to plan, but actually rowing back if something goes disastrously will be hard

If it does work, it will be at least spring 2022 before we actually know - because next winter will be the acid test

The Brexiteers, who are insane and want opening up now, act as a sort of safety valve for Johnson - ie. he's being more cautious than they want, so that means he can spin himself as a "sensible middle ground" guy

If Labour had presided over the last year, there would be calls to shoot any Labour PM - it just shows how the UK media has effectively created a one party state

I think it creates significant headaches for our government, ie. dunderheads will point to the Brits and demand the same thing here, when copying them is highly unlikely to be a good idea for public health