Irish Politics Thread

Message Topic Search Topic Options Post Reply Create New Topic Printable Version Translate Topic

 Het-field wrote:

I don’t expect an FF/FG resurgence. Irish politics has a habit of watershed moments which includes the dispensing of one party Governance. But ultimately, I don’t expect huge change in the current numbers, and even with a loss of 15 seats in 2025, the would still hold significant power in Governmental talks, even if every one of those seats was picked up by SF.

Your point about left leaning “retail politicians” is essentially making my point which is that we can overstate the inevitable growth of SF, based on how other parties of the left perform. While satisfied that this election has drawn Ireland to the left, the Irish left is a very divided house, and from an electoral point of view, you can be represented at national level no matter what left wing ideology you hold. But that means that the survival of certainleft wing elements is contingent of SF going so far, and that’s when the Greens will attack their environmental credentials, or the SDs and Labour their social credentials and PBP their representative credentials. They will be the subject of offensive moves from both angles, and to assume that the next five years will just be easy sailing for SF would be in error. My point is not that I disagree with an ongoing rise of left wing Ireland, my point is that it may not automatically manifest itself in SF.

Equally, a lot happens in five year cycles. The last five years internationally have been quite unbelievable, as were the five years before that, as were the five years before that when the crash happened. How politics will pan out over five years is too much to project. I saw an interview with Ken Livingstone the other night essentially repeat the assumption that the next five years will be such a mess in the UK that Labour will practically be waiting in the wings to take over when the British public inevitably ask them. The Tories were a mess between 2016 and 2019. Beaten badly in local and EU elections, repeated defeated in the Commons, constant obfuscation over Brexit, the disastrous May tenure, and yet we still got what we got in December. And I ton the bargain Brexit isnow a reality. Four years ago it was just assumed that Trump would be such a major disaster that it wouldn’t be even an issue that he would be rolled out of office, and yet the Dems are now so divided it’s unclear whether he’ll get the outcome he deserves which is to lose badly. Again, my point here is about SF. The next five years may take a different course depending on how the wider opposition do.
Sinn Fein now are going to be in the position Labour could have had in 2011 (here's what you could have won), except better. 

As well as having no responsibility and a platform to attack over the coming five years, Sinn Fein have two key things Labour didn't have - populism and nationalism. People don't vote for populists on policies, they vote on feelings, and populists can turn anything to their advantage becasue they trade on scapegoating and victimhood. The current media environment which promotes soundbytes, zingers and a lack of attention span is perfect for doing that, and Sinn Fein will push this relentlessly. 

Plus, they have what Corbyn and Bernie Sanders don't have - and it's because of Ireland's particular historical context - flag waving nationalism. Populist parties love a bit of that. Sinn Fein's nationalism appeals to the old rural Republican tradition, the sort of people who eulogise Dan Breen and Tom Barry. Labour never had that because the labour movement has always been perceived as urban.

The UK and US have a different context. The UK and US have an imperial nature and a love of empire hard wired into much of their society. Trump and the Tories are flag waving far right populists. People don't vote for them on policy, they vote for them because of tribal instincts brought out by the concerted effort by the Tories and Republicans and the mass media industrial bullsh*t machines which back them up, to turn UK and US politics into primitive culture wars. Despite the imperial histories and tendencies in those countries, Trump and Johnson could not win without those mass media industrial bullsh*t machines behind them. 

Fine Gael's campaign in this election was what would have happened to Boris Johnson had he had to run a campaign in a world where the Sun, the Mail, the Telegraph, the Express, the Times and Rupert Murdoch and Laura Kuennsberg and Richard Littlejohn and Melanie Phillips and Katie Hopkins and all those other horrible propagandists didn't exist.

If the UK mass media industrial bullsh*t machine did not exist, there would never have been a Brexit referendum in the first place, and if they'd run one for the craic it would have lost 90-10.

Sinn Fein's appeal is similar to Trump and Brexit and the Tories yet different. The same issues are all there - but our particular historical context means that the populist turn has gone left. There is no mass media industrial bullsh*t machine in Ireland to vilify Sinn Fein in the same way as happened to Corbyn or will probably happen to Bernie Sanders. Yes the media is generally anti-Sinn Fein here but unlike what happens in England, attacks on Sinn Fein only make it stronger.

In an Irish context, the most similar thing we've had to SF in the past is Dev and Haughey era Fianna Fail, who made a massive play of their Republicanism and yet stole the clothes of the Labour party.

Despite the difference in politics, it's actually FFG who are in the position UK Labour find themselves in in, not sure of where to turn, while their opponents use a simple populist playbook that connects in the gut. FFG are in the position of the corporate Democrats in the US, desperate to stop Bernie Sanders but not knowing how to do it.

Edited by sid waddell - 16 Feb 2020 at 11:14pm