Irish Politics Thread

 

It'll probably be Kelly and if so he'll be the final nail into the Labour party coffin.

 

If its Ó Ríordáin though he has the potential to turn their fortunes around to some degree.

While I wouldn’t agree with everything O Riordain has said, he is undoubtedly the best candidate for the job. Particularly his values would best accord with a progressive, social democratic Labour Party. He is generally a good media performer and I feel has the capacity to carry the youth vote. As I said yesterday, cooperation with the SDs will be the interesting thing as both a very closely aligned. Could this lead to heavy co-operation or even some form of merger?

I also noticed in the IT Labour intend to ensure their Senate candidates are vibrant, young and untarnished. There were definitely GE candidates who did okay, who fit that bill. I feel the Senate can only do so much for a profile, but it will increase their PP and visibility at National Level.

 

The language used is interesting. They have agreed not to go into Government with SF or they have agreed not to form a coalition and will talk to other parties first. But what they haven't done(yet anyways) is say categorically we rule out going into coalition with SF under any circumstance. Which seems to be the FG line. I have a feeling Martin will be feeling huge pressure internally over this and the more Conservative FF'ers he has surrounded himself with- Niall Collins, Jim O'Callaghan, Thomas Byrne and others will face being outmaneuvered. It's an internal battle for a few weeks now within FF- who comes out on top will dictate whether its government with SF or another election. There must be zero appetite for confidence and supply or coalition within FG. It is much better for them to stay out and rebuild shoring up the centre right vote.

Baldrick wrote: Could be ff and FG and greens now.

Just what the country wanted

Nearly every option for FF/FG theoretically leaves them shrinking in size seats wise and losing votes to SF either quickly (if another election called within weeks) or eventually (next election after Government term). 

Maybe they'll come to the conclusion that they may as well shrink while in power rather than in opposition, gambling that they may have some success in attempting to fix housing/health and limit SF's growth for the next election if that could be achieved. 

Success in fixing those 2 things, never mind anything else, is probably not likely, but that might not stop them taking the gamble regardless. Greens won't prove an issue for any combination of 70 plus seats, they'll set an agenda around the Environment and most of their demands/requests in relation to that will be granted.