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Het-field
Roy Keane By Appointment to His Majesty The King Joined: 08 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 10658 |
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Not propaganda, I definitely agree that the questions around funding etc are often asked in bad faith, or as you say, as a sort of ‘gotcha.’ A more appropriate question is one of transition which involves key issues like local and devolved governance, reallocation of civil service to meet key needs, and the transition from the NHS, to a joint system here. Like Brexit, there will be UK politicians that would demand a ‘hard break’, and a demand that the six counties either transition directly to the UI platform, or go it alone. I would assume that the most likely outcome would be a transitional phase in terms of public services etc.
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irishmufc
Robbie Keane I love Vulvas Joined: 09 Aug 2011 Location: Dublin Status: Online Points: 25090 |
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Excellent post.
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Wings? They're only the band The Beatles could have been.
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Borussia
Roy Keane Joined: 14 Oct 2010 Location: UK Status: Online Points: 10754 |
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I can see that also - But I still think there is validity to it. When Germany reunified, there was a lot of initial resentment in the West as the "Wessies" felt like they were carrying the "Ossies" due to the cost to them. Not saying the same would totally exist in Ireland but there would probably be some people in the south who would hold the opinion that they would like a united Ireland but only when it was affordable. And in terms of engaging with Unionists, I do get the point that many won't engage, but at the same time if the recent polling is correct that in order to get a majority of people voting for a united Ireland in the north then you'd need to convince some soft Unionists that this was a valid path for them (along with some Nationalists who might need to be convinced about their place in a united Ireland).
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horsebox
Robbie Keane Born n bred in darndale. Joined: 03 Feb 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Online Points: 34870 |
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Funny you should mention that.
The IMF economist who over saw the Germany reunification said this - https://www.thesun.ie/news/3770331/economist-united-ireland-costs-finances/ Senator Mark Daly's figures are 700m pa. That was pre Brexit though. People will be pulling figures out of nowhere based on what side of the fence you sit on. I've seen the full UK military budget included in the running costs for NI and the pensions and all sorts of other stuff. I don't think anyone has a true full understanding of the costs. I've read some German professors living Ireland saying that they never in a million years would have thought Germany would unify and he mentioned some of the issues Borussia mentioned above and give his own 2 cents on how we should go about it. This discussion should take place now with a vote in about 10 years time as it will take that time to iron out a lot of these details. |
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It was far across the sea,
When the devil got a hold of me, He wouldn't set me free, So he kept me soul for ransom. na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na. I'm a sailor man from Glasgow to |
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Borussia
Roy Keane Joined: 14 Oct 2010 Location: UK Status: Online Points: 10754 |
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Won't be clicking on any links to that paper but definitely a valid point that lessons can be learned from what happened in Germany. Do you think that a vote in 10 years time is realistic? After Brexit I would definitely have said so but there really doesn't seem to be a massive appetite for it in the north.
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jamo1
Liam Brady Joined: 22 Oct 2009 Location: Canada Status: Offline Points: 1952 |
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Del Boy: You do know what a pyscopath is dont you Grandad
Grandad: Of course i know what a Pyscopath is, its a fella who dresses up in womens clothes. |
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horsebox
Robbie Keane Born n bred in darndale. Joined: 03 Feb 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Online Points: 34870 |
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It's only realistic if the government cooperate. Mehole and Leo are not interested in having this discussion.
However, there are many in both FFG who are interested in having this discussion and driving this forward.
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It was far across the sea,
When the devil got a hold of me, He wouldn't set me free, So he kept me soul for ransom. na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na. I'm a sailor man from Glasgow to |
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Borussia
Roy Keane Joined: 14 Oct 2010 Location: UK Status: Online Points: 10754 |
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I do understand that how the likes of Martin and Varadkar behave will influence the opinion some people in the north will have but given the IPSOS poll in December had only 27% of people who said they would vote for a United Ireland, it seems unlikely that we are close to there being a poll any time soon.
Edited by Borussia - 26 Jan 2023 at 4:05pm |
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notpropaganda73
Liam Brady Joined: 17 Feb 2016 Location: Donegal Status: Offline Points: 1057 |
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to be clear, I'm not saying don't bother. a case has to be built for unity to persuade people to vote for it, without a doubt. my point was more aimed at those in the south bringing it up as a sort of reasoning to water down discussions. if a unionist isn't present or included in a discussion around unity, for some people it's a non-starter or highlights some innate exclusionary nature in the nationalist tradition. there has to be a realisation of the fundamental unionist position. We can discuss how to accommodate the unionist tradition and how to build a UI for everyone, but I think some honesty about this whole thing wouldn't go amiss. I'm a bit cynical when people bring it up, it certainly feels like people scolding nationalists for not asking the unionists what they think, rather than just asking unionists what they think if that makes sense
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Het-field
Roy Keane By Appointment to His Majesty The King Joined: 08 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 10658 |
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But surely Unionists aren’t a monolith? I would also suspect there are some hyper-Republicans, who would vote down a UI if it didn’t come with things like leaving the EU, which means in practice they would for most part rather the status quo, rather than what they see as a ‘half baked’ UI?
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Borussia
Roy Keane Joined: 14 Oct 2010 Location: UK Status: Online Points: 10754 |
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Would suggest looking at the IPSOS polling I mentioned above - That goes into detail on all of that.
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horsebox
Robbie Keane Born n bred in darndale. Joined: 03 Feb 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Online Points: 34870 |
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Correct. Because the Brits are in complete control of this and we are completely powerless to the destiny of our own land. Numerous people have asked the British government to outline the criteria for a border poll and they refuse to cooperate. Bertie signed away sovereignty of the 6 counties to appease Unionists as part of the GFA. The British government will never give up the 6 counties based on principle. |
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It was far across the sea,
When the devil got a hold of me, He wouldn't set me free, So he kept me soul for ransom. na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na. I'm a sailor man from Glasgow to |
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Borussia
Roy Keane Joined: 14 Oct 2010 Location: UK Status: Online Points: 10754 |
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But that's all irrelevant really if people in the north don't want a united Ireland. You could have a poll tomorrow and "if" the estimates our right (and yes opinion polls can be wrong) you'd probably have, at best, a 40% result in favour of it. Any discussion on the criteria of a poll would presumably need to be held in an environment of their being a likelihood of it passing which doesn't seem close at the moment. That's the point I was making above. |
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Shedite
Jack Charlton Joined: 09 Dec 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9820 |
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Given's zimmerframe
500 Club la la la Joined: 03 Apr 2016 Status: Offline Points: 620 |
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Would a unity poll not force the british to release exact finance figures for the north? If so there is a good reason to have the first one, the next can be 7 years later I think? I think it will get awkward for the british if sf continue to gain traction north and south and scotland push more for an indy ref.
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horsebox
Robbie Keane Born n bred in darndale. Joined: 03 Feb 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Online Points: 34870 |
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If the people of NI DO want a UI. The relevance is that the British government simply will not cooperate no matter the opinion polls or people say. I think NI or Scotland breaking away from the Union will weaken the UK. |
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It was far across the sea,
When the devil got a hold of me, He wouldn't set me free, So he kept me soul for ransom. na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na. I'm a sailor man from Glasgow to |
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Borussia
Roy Keane Joined: 14 Oct 2010 Location: UK Status: Online Points: 10754 |
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I'm not just being contrary here but I think if we ever got to that stage then there is more than a fair chance a vote is called. Many people in the UK feel, for differing reasons, feel that the north should be part of a UI - Some because they think its the right thing to do, others because they don't care. And I think we've seen that the current governing party don't give 2 f**ks about the north - It was an after thought in the Brexit debate and they've repeatedly demonstrated that their Brexit is far more important that the north. Scotland is different given it's natural resources, whereas the north just costs them money.
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horsebox
Robbie Keane Born n bred in darndale. Joined: 03 Feb 2010 Location: Ireland Status: Online Points: 34870 |
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My comment was based on the fact that the UK government have ignored all requests to outline the criteria for a border poll from multiple sources (not SF).
The majority of people who have held the position of secretary of state are usually staunch Unionists themselves. So they or the PM will not want to be seen to be the one to drive forward the end of the Union.
They simply don't have to cooperate - they never really have to be honest. You just need to look at our history with the UK, they have been fobbing us off for centuries, drip feeding us token gestures every now and again. I just don't think they are willing to cooperate into the dismantlement of their own sovereign territory by a bunch of Paddies. |
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It was far across the sea,
When the devil got a hold of me, He wouldn't set me free, So he kept me soul for ransom. na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na. I'm a sailor man from Glasgow to |
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