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The Tribesman
Kevin Kilbane Joined: 09 May 2012 Location: Galway Status: Offline Points: 336 |
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Iceland aren't that bad! Ask Engerland!
And they invest their qualification money very well indeed!
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The Tribesman
Kevin Kilbane Joined: 09 May 2012 Location: Galway Status: Offline Points: 336 |
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Re taking things from last night's debacle - Gibraltar are 195 in the world, Galway Utd would beat them!
The minimum Tribesman acceptable metric was a 3-0 win, with @ least 2 of the strikers breaking their ducks! Instead, the 4 hotshots need buckets of Viagra in large doses!
Edited by The Tribesman - 12 Jun 2019 at 12:31am |
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SuperDave84
Robbie Keane ooh Thomas, how could you do this to me! Joined: 26 Aug 2011 Location: Far Fungannon Status: Offline Points: 21384 |
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One thing on the playoffs: as everyone knows, we basically need to be in the eight best teams from the Nations League who have not qualified, if we are to make the playoffs. If we are ninth (i.e. if there are eight teams from the 22 above us who have not qualified) then we do not even make the playoffs. That being the case, let's look at those 22 teams. We need 15 of them to qualify automatically for us to make the playoffs, what with us being ranked 23rd in the Nations League overall ranking. Given the proviso that a league winning team in League C cannot be made to face a team from a higher league in a playoff, and given the fact one of those four is bound to fail (the Scots are currently in a poor position, as indeed are Serbia and Norway), we have to be in the top eight teams who do not qualify automatically, if we want a playoff place, as the League C playoffs are not going to save us. Group A: England and the Czech Republic are both in prime position. They should both qualify automatically and have started the campaign well. Odds on both are about 90%, with about 10% on only one, 0% on neither. Group B: Portugal and Ukraine. Ukraine have 10 points from four games, same as ourselves, but against tougher opposition. Portugal have 2 from 2 games and could find themselves in a battle, but Ukraine's 5-0 win over Serbia definitely helps. They should finish top two but there's a way to go. Odds on both are about 85%, with about 15% on one, 0% on neither. Group C: Netherlands and Germany. The Netherlands don't have a lot of wiggle room left, to be honest. They need to beat Belarus away, Estonia home and away and get four points off Northern Ireland, in all likelihood. However, they are a decent side, so it's marginally in their favour, but they do need a lot, especially if they lose to Germany again. The Germans will steamroller their way through the group. Odds are about 75% on both, about 25% on one, 0% on neither. Let's pause at that and say that at least four of the above six teams will qualify automatically, probably five, maybe even six. Five is the probable number. Group D is our group. If we don't qualify, it will be because Switzerland and Denmark have, adding two more to the ranks above, bringing it to probably seven. Group E: Croatia and Wales. This is where things start to look decidedly hairier. Wales are on a down slope, and arguably the Croatians are too. Slovakia have played some of their tougher games, and the Hungarians have beaten both Wales and Croatia at home. There's a chance neither of the top two seeds will do it here. I'd say the odds are only about 10% on both of them making it at this stage, 70% on one of them making it and 20% on neither. Group F: Spain and Sweden. Both teams are in a decent position but it could all come down to Sweden's trip to Romania in November. I'd say the odds are about 60% on both making it, 40% on one, 0% on neither. Group G: Poland and Austria. Poland have a 100% record including a couple of tricky away games under their belt and look reasonably secure, but Israel could be the thorn in the side for Austria. I'd say the odds are about 50% on both making it, 50% on only one. At this stage, that probably pushes the number towards eleven of the first and second seeded teams from groups A to G making it, as four of the above six should make it. Group H: France and Iceland. This is a straightforward two from three group, in all likelihood, with Turkey. That being the case, I'd say it's 50% for both and 50% for just one of the two to qualify. Group I: Belgium and Russia. They look home and hosed, given how poor the Scots have been to date. I think it is the likeliest to have two seeds, something like 90%/10%/0%. Group J: Italy and Bosnia. Bosnia have been a rabble, Italy are unbeaten. I'd say it's something like 5%/95%/5%. That's adding on at least four teams likely to make it. That pushes it up to fifteen out of the twenty two, leaving us at a bit of risk of only fourteen of them actually qualifying automatically. That happens and there's no playoff. There's no room for complacency and no reason to assume we will get a playoff, looking at how the other groups are currently panning out.
Edited by SuperDave84 - 12 Jun 2019 at 12:50am |
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GB 1HughJarse
Liam Brady Joined: 03 Sep 2015 Status: Offline Points: 2091 |
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Great post. Reminds me of Sid’s “Hail Mary” post last year. So we need to be cheering on Wales, Iceland, Czech Rep, Portugal, Sweden, Bosnia, Austria and Croatia. |
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SuperDave84
Robbie Keane ooh Thomas, how could you do this to me! Joined: 26 Aug 2011 Location: Far Fungannon Status: Offline Points: 21384 |
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I actually meant to post it in the other thread that was discussing this already! But yes, we should be cheering them on, especially because the more of the teams above us that qualify automatically, arguably the easier our task in the playoffs would become.
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Jimmy Raggatip
500 Club la la la Joined: 28 May 2018 Status: Offline Points: 727 |
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haven't read the whole thread but has anyone pointed out the massive contradiction that we should be happy with our lot but yet the Nordies haven't got a prayer of getting out of their group with full points from 4 games?
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Cabra Hoop
Roy Keane Joined: 06 Feb 2012 Location: Royal County Status: Offline Points: 10841 |
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Edited by Cabra Hoop - 12 Jun 2019 at 8:51am |
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" BFC always gives me a laugh........ "
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Shedite
Jack Charlton Joined: 09 Dec 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9823 |
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Here's some perspective.
We beat Gibraltar H&A, Georgia H and drew away to Danes. O'Neill did all that with a lot better goal difference
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irishmufc
Robbie Keane I love Vulvas Joined: 09 Aug 2011 Location: Dublin Status: Offline Points: 25097 |
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Wings? They're only the band The Beatles could have been.
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Baldrick
Robbie Keane Peyton-tly Pedantic Joined: 18 Sep 2008 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 32814 |
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The only results of significance in this group so far are the Swiss winning in Georgia and ourselves and the Swiss drawing with Denmark.
The major games in the group are yet to happen and ourselves and the Danes can’t slip up in Georgia. We will know a lot more after September. However it has been lucky that Mick has basically had a couple of friendlies and an away trip to denmark to bed in.
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AKA pedantic kunt
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Het-field
Roy Keane By Appointment to His Majesty The King Joined: 08 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 10674 |
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But with a better spread of players. What is forgotten is that we had a reasonable slate of players under MON, and players like Brady and McClean were performing to a higher level. I accept we had injuries at times, but I feel MM had major remedial work to do to actually bring us up to any sort of standard.
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Fruice
Liam Brady Joined: 22 Nov 2014 Location: Cork Status: Offline Points: 1261 |
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Some post Dave fair play for putting the time in. Just to confirm we need 15 teams ahead of us to qualify automatically to ensure we get a playoff if we don't finish in the top 2? Also as things stand how many of the teams ahead of us in Nations league rankings in the automatic qualifying positions?( ignore games in Hand etc just to get a rough idea)
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Maccatacca
Ray Houghton Joined: 01 Jun 2016 Status: Offline Points: 4217 |
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Did he??? I don’t think losing 5-1 at home is any good for the oul goal difference.
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Drumcondra 69er
Jack Charlton Joined: 07 Oct 2009 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 7123 |
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McCarthy hasn't played Denmark at home yet, to be fair. It's still a bit of an irrelevant point though given the time that's elapsed since the last Gibraltar games, changes in personell etc.
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Stickittotheman
Liam Brady Joined: 15 Sep 2015 Status: Offline Points: 2290 |
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Robbie Keane scored 5 goals in the games against Gibraltar.
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Walters coming back from an offside position but Shane Long was definitely onside- Shane Lonnggggggg.... has done it!!!!
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Stickittotheman
Liam Brady Joined: 15 Sep 2015 Status: Offline Points: 2290 |
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Agree with this. We got a very good draw with Denmark and did what was expected of us in the other games- maximum points. It has given Mick a chance to bed in and we have a settled back 5 now which is important and a few lads bedded in like McGoldrick, Hourihane and Stevens. The Swiss game is massive but we should be confident of getting a draw at least.
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Walters coming back from an offside position but Shane Long was definitely onside- Shane Lonnggggggg.... has done it!!!!
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Shedite
Jack Charlton Joined: 09 Dec 2011 Status: Offline Points: 9823 |
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(a) Maybe O'Neill was right, we don't have the players. We only hockied Gibraltar twice because we had a top class goalscorer back then (b) We have 10 points from 12 now, flying it in the group, glad we ditched O'Neill. I agree with Baldrick, we know nothing from what we've done so far. Ourselves/Danes/Swiss need to keep beating the minnows, then take something from each other. The only impact so far is if it happened to end up we all beat the minnows and draw with each other, our GD is likely to be awful compared to Swiss/Danes
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Drumcondra 69er
Jack Charlton Joined: 07 Oct 2009 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 7123 |
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Here's some perspective from results against the minnows in our previous successful qualifying campaigns.
Euro 88 Ireland 2 Luxembourg 1 after going one nil down. WC 90 Ireland 2 Malta 0 (We'd beaten them 8-0 six years before). WC94 Beat both Albania and Lithuania 2 0 at home. WC 02 Ireland 3 Andorra 1 after going one down. Euro 12 Ireland 3 Andorra 1. Euro 16 We put Gibraltar to the sword but struggled against Georgia. We've been having games where we struggle against the minnows in successful campaigns as long as I remember and with far better teams, It didn't prevent us raising our game against the better teams. All about the 3 remaining games against the Swiss and Danes. |
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