We have ten points out of a possible twelve and put in one of our best away performances in over two years against the Danes in Copenhagen.

Have a look through the other groups across Europe. There are teams with far superior players than ourselves on paper, who already look like they are out of the running, or who would take the arm off you to be in the position we find ourselves in.

Serbia lost 5-0 away to the Ukraine and have four points from three games.

Wales lost 1-0 tonight away to Hungary and 2-1 away to Croatia last week - three points from three games against direct rivals mean its a long way back for them.

Sweden were battered 3-0 by Spain and will be in a tight race with Romania, with both currently on seven points.

Austria (6 points) and Slovenia (5 points) both have a bit to do to catch Poland and Israel.

Turkey are back down to earth with a loss to Iceland, just days after beating the world champions.

Scotland are out.

Greece just lost 3-2 at home to Armenia and have a lot to do, Bosnia had a poor loss away to Finland. Both sides also recently lost to Italy.

You could argue that nearly all of the above teams barring Scotland (Maybe) and Iceland have better players than ourselves yet find themselves in worse positions.

Of the other pot 3 teams only ourselves, Turkey, Finland and Northern Ireland are in the top two in their respective groups. The North haven't a prayer of getting out of their group.

Yes the performance was poor against Gibraltar, but we always struggle as heavy favorites. 

The performances against teams nearer our level have been promising and whatever happens over the course of the next four games against Switzerland, Georgia and Denmark, you can be sure that we will be in the running going into the last two games.  

Ps odowda needs to start 

Your analysis on far better teams coming a croper

against sides around our level, is failing to allow that every side, you mentioned, would have stuffed Gibraltar home and away and beaten Georgia well at home!

The signs are completely mixed. 

Against a team that puts eleven men behind the ball we struggled to create chances.

Against one team a good bit better than us (Denmark) and another team a little worse than us (Georgia) we produced several decent goal scoring opportunities. 

Had we of hammered Gibraltar 4/5-0 we'd be full of false confidence going into Swiss game in September.

The lads will be back down to earth after that dross last night. 

We are undoubtedly underdogs to go through - we have been from the start. But this group will go down to the wire in my opinion, which is probably more than you can expect from this team, considering it is our worst crop of players in years.

A draw at home to the Swiss, which is not exactly unlikely, and we'll be in a very good position.

Denmark will then travel to Georgia a few days after an away game against Gibraltar. They might have won 5-1 at home, but they won't have it as easy in Tbilisi. 

There are plenty of better teams around Europe who would be delighted to be in our position - take a quick look on the Welsh forum for one. 

Hungary are worse than Denmark, Wales are better than us. 

This isn't just about Gibraltar and Georgia. 

And Georgia away and they feel they owe us a big one!

It's possible we might pick up as little as 2 points from now on.

We may become the only host not to make the finals, though, Scotland and The Lads from Baku (can't spell their nation) may join us on that one!

But aren't those playoffs 1 leg is the semis and a final?

It has been so in other qualifiers.

Only if you're in a 6 team group. Ours is 5 obviously

USA beat Thailand 11-0 in the Women's World Cup.

Georgia are well capable of beating us in Tiblisi, well capable!

It finished 13-0. Even more perspective.

Georgia are already guaranteed a playoff spot so I think this is 1 qualifying group were they don't really give a monkeys either way. 

Georgia scored 3 at the weekend against them what does that say about us?

23rd is second last in League 2, are the Nordies last? Quite possible Wales will need a playoff place and they are ahead of us!

Yes - Nordies are last. 

Right now Bosnia, Austria, Wales, Slovakia, and Turkey could miss out, although many are close and it will probably qualify. 

Scotland in any world cup being a prime example!

BTW did ye hear the boos last night as the 2020 hosts were named and kids came out with the 12 tiny flags, our most lovely Scottish Cousins got a few standout boos

Gee anyone would think a state of war exists between us and them over The Hibernian Melvinas!

Indeed, Ireland's 7-0 win over Gibraltar in 2014 was no sort of indication of how we were going to do in any other game in that tournament. Even if we'd won it only 1-0, we probably would still have finished 3rd, gone into the play offs and qualified

Every side on that list would really fancy their chances against us, except may be the  one that can't  happen- Denmark!

Surely it is the other way around, putting things into 'perspective' means acknowledging that the Swiss & Danes will also get 6pts V Gib (only they'll both score far more goals), and last night's performance doesn't really bode well for tougher games ahead against those 2. 

And I see somewhere else in the thread that Georgia away has been chalked down as a win again. Just like last time so. And the time Scotland only had to turn up & beat them. Georgia near enough always get at least one good result in Tbilisi and take points from one of the bigger contenders. Maybe this time it will be the Swiss or Danes that fall victim to it, but looking at our last 2 performances there, and our continuing struggle for goals, we're probably the most likely candidates. Perspective. 

No disrespect to Austria or Sweden or Russia or whoever, but I really couldn't give a fcuk how they are getting on, whether struggling or otherwise, and don't see how that is going to affect us one way or another. If we don't qualify, consoling ourselves with the thought that (say) Sweden, a far better team on paper, didn't qualify either, isn't going to make anything better. 

I think the point is that the number of smaller / third tier teams playing flowing champagne football though a qualifying tournament is tiny.

Turkey went from beating World Cup winners France 4-0 on Saturday to losing in Iceland tonight. That's football for you. Trying to assess our merits as a football team based on a home qualifier against Gibraltar is a bit of a fools' game.

And they invest their qualification money very well indeed!

The minimum Tribesman acceptable metric was a 3-0 win, with @ least 2 of the strikers breaking their ducks!

Instead, the 4 hotshots need buckets of Viagra in large doses!

One thing on the playoffs: as everyone knows, we basically need to be in the eight best teams from the Nations League who have not qualified, if we are to make the playoffs. If we are ninth (i.e. if there are eight teams from the 22 above us who have not qualified) then we do not even make the playoffs. That being the case, let's look at those 22 teams. We need 15 of them to qualify automatically for us to make the playoffs, what with us being ranked 23rd in the Nations League overall ranking. Given the proviso that a league winning team in League C cannot be made to face a team from a higher league in a playoff, and given the fact one of those four is bound to fail (the Scots are currently in a poor position, as indeed are Serbia and Norway), we have to be in the top eight teams who do not qualify automatically, if we want a playoff place, as the League C playoffs are not going to save us.

Group A: England and the Czech Republic are both in prime position. They should both qualify automatically and have started the campaign well. Odds on both are about 90%, with about 10% on only one, 0% on neither.

Group B: Portugal and Ukraine. Ukraine have 10 points from four games, same as ourselves, but against tougher opposition. Portugal have 2 from 2 games and could find themselves in a battle, but Ukraine's 5-0 win over Serbia definitely helps. They should finish top two but there's a way to go. Odds on both are about 85%, with about 15% on one, 0% on neither.

Group C: Netherlands and Germany. The Netherlands don't have a lot of wiggle room left, to be honest. They need to beat Belarus away, Estonia home and away and get four points off Northern Ireland, in all likelihood. However, they are a decent side, so it's marginally in their favour, but they do need a lot, especially if they lose to Germany again. The Germans will steamroller their way through the group. Odds are about 75% on both, about 25% on one, 0% on neither.

Let's pause at that and say that at least four of the above six teams will qualify automatically, probably five, maybe even six. Five is the probable number.

Group D is our group. If we don't qualify, it will be because Switzerland and Denmark have, adding two more to the ranks above, bringing it to probably seven.

Group E: Croatia and Wales. This is where things start to look decidedly hairier. Wales are on a down slope, and arguably the Croatians are too. Slovakia have played some of their tougher games, and the Hungarians have beaten both Wales and Croatia at home. There's a chance neither of the top two seeds will do it here. I'd say the odds are only about 10% on both of them making it at this stage, 70% on one of them making it and 20% on neither.

Group F: Spain and Sweden. Both teams are in a decent position but it could all come down to Sweden's trip to Romania in November. I'd say the odds are about 60% on both making it, 40% on one, 0% on neither.

Group G: Poland and Austria. Poland have a 100% record including a couple of tricky away games under their belt and look reasonably secure, but Israel could be the thorn in the side for Austria. I'd say the odds are about 50% on both making it, 50% on only one.

At this stage, that probably pushes the number towards eleven of the first and second seeded teams from groups A to G making it, as four of the above six should make it.

Group H: France and Iceland. This is a straightforward two from three group, in all likelihood, with Turkey. That being the case, I'd say it's 50% for both and 50% for just one of the two to qualify.

Group I: Belgium and Russia. They look home and hosed, given how poor the Scots have been to date. I think it is the likeliest to have two seeds, something like 90%/10%/0%.

Group J: Italy and Bosnia. Bosnia have been a rabble, Italy are unbeaten. I'd say it's something like 5%/95%/5%.

That's adding on at least four teams likely to make it. That pushes it up to fifteen out of the twenty two, leaving us at a bit of risk of only fourteen of them actually qualifying automatically. That happens and there's no playoff.

There's no room for complacency and no reason to assume we will get a playoff, looking at how the other groups are currently panning out.

I actually meant to post it in the other thread that was discussing this already!

But yes, we should be cheering them on, especially because the more of the teams above us that qualify automatically, arguably the easier our task in the playoffs would become.

haven't read the whole thread but has anyone pointed out the massive contradiction that we should be happy with our lot but yet the Nordies haven't got a prayer of getting out of their group with full points from 4 games?

We beat Gibraltar H&A, Georgia H and drew away to Danes.

O'Neill did all that with a lot better goal difference

The major games in the group are yet to happen and ourselves and the Danes can’t slip up in Georgia.  

We will know a lot more after September.  

However it has been lucky that Mick has basically had a couple of friendlies and an away trip to denmark to bed in.  

But with a better spread of players.

What is forgotten is that we had a reasonable slate of players under MON, and players like Brady and McClean were performing to a higher level. I accept we had injuries at times, but I feel MM had major remedial work to do to actually bring us up to any sort of standard.

Some post Dave fair play for putting the time in.

Just to confirm we need 15 teams ahead of us to qualify automatically to ensure we get a playoff if we don't finish in the top 2?

Also as things stand how many of the teams ahead of us in Nations league rankings in the automatic  qualifying positions?( ignore games in Hand etc just to get a rough idea)

Did he??? I don’t think losing 5-1 at home is any good for the oul goal difference. 

McCarthy hasn't played Denmark at home yet, to be fair.

It's still a bit of an irrelevant point though given the time that's elapsed since the last Gibraltar games, changes in personell etc. 

 

Robbie Keane scored 5 goals in the games against Gibraltar.

 

Agree with this. We got a very good draw with Denmark and did what was expected of us in the other games- maximum points. It has given Mick a chance to bed in and we have a settled back 5 now which is important and a few lads bedded in like McGoldrick, Hourihane and Stevens. The Swiss game is massive but we should be confident of getting a draw at least.

(a) Maybe O'Neill was right, we don't have the players. We only hockied Gibraltar twice because we had a top class goalscorer back then

(b) We have 10 points from 12 now, flying it in the group, glad we ditched O'Neill.

I agree with Baldrick, we know nothing from what we've done so far. Ourselves/Danes/Swiss need to keep beating the minnows, then take something from each other. The only impact so far is if it happened to end up we all beat the minnows and draw with each other, our GD is likely to be awful compared to Swiss/Danes

I know the last campaign wasn’t successful but we finished 2nd having only drawn away to Georgia, 3 draws against the top 3 seeds at home and our results against Moldova were far from spectacular 3-1 away and 2-0 at home.

Fully agree with this.  Another fixture worth mentioning is Ireland v Faroe Islands in October 2004.  Brian Kerr had a team which included Roy Keane, Robbie Keane, Damien Duff, Stephen Carr and Steve Finnan.  The Irish team had drawn in Paris four days earlier, but only beat the Faroes 2-0 at home.  One of the goals was a penalty.  If that Irish team hadn't dropped points against Israel and lost at home to France, they were pretty close to qualifying.

The problem isn’t really that we struggled to beat Gibraltar, it is more that we really aren’t creating chances. We have had two home games against weaker opposition and while we dominated possession, we created very little. We also created little in Gibraltar and of the four games played, Randolph has had to prove his worth in three of them.

If must be the most overused word on YBIG!

Correct. There's loads of examples from unsuccessful campaigns as well but I was just looking at the ones we qualified out of. In fact, in that campaign if we hadn't thrown away leads home and away against Israel then we'd have topped the group even with the loss to France.  

We created enough chances to put 4 or 5 on Gibraltar despite not playing well. Two goals, McGoldrick off the post, McGoldrick when he seemed to be caught between cushioning it towards McClean or putting his foot through it, Hogan when he didn't connect with the header. Pretty sure there's a couple more I can't think off off the top of my head.

Against Denmark we had the goal and the two chances where McClean simply needed to square the ball rather than take the shot on. We're creating far more than we did under MON. It's taking them that's the problem.

Lichtenstein in 1995 and San Marino in 2007 can be easily forgotten. Taking 30 minutes to score against Lichtenstein in 1997, almost dropping points in Malta in 1999 after taking a 2 goal lead. Not scoring more than 5 in a single game for over 30 years. The game in Astana in 2012, the list goes on and on.

And that doesn’t even mention the games against relative minows like Cyprus, Albania etc in the recent past.

We are creating a little bit more, but I also feel we are giving up more chances than the last campaign. The Danes, while showing us far too much respect, particularly in the first half, they really started to open us up with one slight tactical change

i think our next game defines all. if we lose to swiss then we'll need snookers. 

if we draw then we can hope to go undefeated by setting up very tight away to swiss and georgia and then by drawing with denmark at home , the other results will then define what place we get .

if we win the momentum will be huge and we are very close to qualifying indeed and the buzz will be back. 

massive game 

its not a big price that all the games between us, Denmark and Switzerland end in draws, and we'll be out on our arse probably

we should be showing ambition and attacking verve not just settling for routine wins

Enjoyed this post. A lot of bollocks gets spouted on here.

We need to beat Denmark or Switzerland at home. Or at least take the game to them. I believe Mick will do this in September but it may not work. All I** want is for us to have a go and take a chance. Not put 10 behind the ball and pray we don't concede. 

If we have a go and don't qualify so be it. I've enough of the hit and hope and rubbish MON used to put us through:

Home games v

- Scotland 

- Serbia 

- Austria 

- Wales

etc 

*** I'm saying I because last time I said we there was holy war. 

No one is taking any stance that I can see. Just pointing out that we routinely struggle to put these teams to the sword yet generally beat them and it doesn't seem to impact on how we play against the bigger teams. I wish it wasn't that way and I don't know why it is but it's been like that for generations. 

100% : it seems to make no difference whether we beat a team like Gibraltar 1-0 or 7-0, it has zero impact on how we play against the bigger teams. People are reading way too much into the result / performance the other night.

With good or bad teams we have maintained a competitive level of performance against better teams than us for decades, apart from a few odd occasions - the Staunton era and the end of O'Neill's reign.

There's an accepted standard. Even if we don't have the best players, the internal culture of the team is one that they are expected to run themselves into the ground, defend like their lives depend on it, and keep going until the very end, because, no matter how a game has gone, we'll always get one chance to score. Even if it's in the 91st minute.

Our team would never go to Hungary and lose, for example, And certainly not with the type of players that Wales have available to them.

Our players are too bloody-minded for that to happen. And that's why games versus Gibraltar etc, will have little bearing on how we play against the likes of Switzerland or Denmark.

I really don’t think we can get to 16 points playing badly and it is hard to have  hope based solely on our resilience.

For sure, but we don't really have form for hammering the small teams, not for the last 10 years at least. That doesn't make us a bad side though.

 

We played well against Georgia, but then again they're poor

 

Comparatively. It was obviously an improvement on the end of MON's tenure and even a few days before, but it wasn't anything more than an improvement. 

I would say our team has two modes: passive and aggressive.  Passive can get results, but is dire to watch. Aggressive is a more risky approach, but is far more entertaining.

We have to beat either Switzerland or Denmark at home. Two draws will be no good to us.

Realistically that means we have to be aggressive. With our poor goal-scoring record, we have to create multiple chances just to get a goal. And that means that we will give up some chances too.

Even if our best hope for a goal is a set-piece. We still have to take risks to get up the field to put pressure on the opposition and force free-kicks or corners.

So the games may not be pretty, but they should be entertaining and filled with tension. Especially if we take the lead. 

The recent match against Georgia was the perfect example of such a game.

sometimes performances are remembered... its international games 8 per year not club games...40 per year