European Elections 2019

SuperDave84 wrote: Denis Irwin wrote: bogball88 wrote: Is Durkan going to get a seat in Dublin for FG? Nope. Fitzgerald and Andrews will take 2 of the seats. The other 2 including the 4th Brexit releated seat will go to 2 of Boylan, Cuffe, Daly and White The latest polls have Fitzgerald at 17%, Boylan at 13%, Andrews at 12%, Cuffe at 11%, Daly at 9%, Durkan at 8% and White at 5%, with the remainder being the likes of PBP, Social Democrats and the assorted nutters like Kelly and Gilroy all polling below 5%. With transfers from the left leaning candidates eliminated early likely to favour Daly and to a lesser extent Boylan, Cuffe is fighting an uphill battle for fourth spot, never mind third. There is a chance he could defeat Andrews but on polling last week with the Times, Andrews was on 18% and Cuffe on 9%, so it's hard to say. I really don't think White has a strong chance, on those numbers. I'd guess it will be Fitzgerald, Boylan, Andrews (I think he's more likely to poll around 15%) and the fourth seat to Daly/Cuffe. Incidentally, there will only be one count, based on it being a four member constituency, not two counts. The quota will thus be 20%+1 in Dublin, not 25%+1. There had been some talk that the count could be split in two, due to the extra Brexit seat, but they've decided to go with one count only. I'm not sure the difference it will make but that's the way it's going to be counted.

Edited by Denis Irwin - 22 May 2019 at 1:20pm

I’d agree Cuffe should make the cut. Gannon will poll best of the also rans (ie those currently polling around 5% or lower)

In most constituencies there are seats that are simply not up for grabs. That’s where the transfers at the foot of the results will make all the difference. I hope Cuffe is transfer friendly enough to secure a seat, and my preference is for the other pro-EU parties to pick up the rest. The problem is, the Dublin ballot is full of eurocritic-eurosceptic- europhobic candidates who might well push somebody over the line as such voters might lend their vote in order to ensure a eurosceptic is elected, or indeed people who just aren’t aware their candidate is a eurosceptic. Another and different interesting facet is whether somebody like Alice Mary Higgins could pull off a Nessa Childers style surprise, as a transfer friendly independent. This could equally benefit Claire Daly, who could squeeze the third seat.

Daly will get the last seat. she will have a massive transfer allocation. She will pull another Joe Higgins and gain a seat for the left 

nvidic wrote: Video doing the rounds of Casey with a soap box type set up today  'some people say I'm racist, OF COURSE I'm a racist'

ErsatzThistle wrote: SNP for me. Hope to see Alyn Smith, Christian Allard and Aileen McLeod elected  ..

Ben Gilroy has came from 150/1 into 10/1 with pp to get elected. Does he have a squeak? Gonna back saoirse mchugh in midlands at 4/1

colmoc wrote: Ben Gilroy has came from 150/1 into 10/1 with pp to get elected. Does he have a squeak? Gonna back saoirse mchugh in midlands at 4/1

McHugh for me