"Go on Dancing With The Stars if you're so desperate for attention, Peter" 

This young lady could be Ireland's Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

She's a self declared democratic socialist - she's Green and she's red and she's from Mayo

And she's a surfer

I'm voting Green

Not that Casey needs  much help. Does plenty of it to himself. f**kin clown 

he might get a seat though , clown that he is 

Transfers from McGuinness and probably FF will be crucial. Casey won't be transfer friendly I reckon. Walsh will probably just about take the last seat.

Nope.

Fitzgerald and Andrews will take 2 of the seats. The other 2 including the 4th Brexit releated seat will go to 2 of Boylan, Cuffe, Daly and White

https://twitter.com/DollardJohn/status/1130814903743406081" rel="nofollow - https://twitter.com/DollardJohn/status/1130814903743406081

He is a loud and annoying empty head. The very worst kind. 

After Saoirse Ocasio-Cortez McHugh (Vote Green!) destroyed him last night, the racist old fool stayed up and got drunk and replied to six year old tweets from an obvious parody account 

Also getting upset at foul language yet has no issues with dabbling in the aul racism 

He's drunk most of the time

Maybe he went home and got sober

Maybe getting sober is to him what getting drunk is to most people

I suppose it doesn't explain how he's a racist **** but it would explain him replying to six year old tweets from a parody account

The latest polls have Fitzgerald at 17%, Boylan at 13%, Andrews at 12%, Cuffe at 11%, Daly at 9%, Durkan at 8% and White at 5%, with the remainder being the likes of PBP, Social Democrats and the assorted nutters like Kelly and Gilroy all polling below 5%.

With transfers from the left leaning candidates eliminated early likely to favour Daly and to a lesser extent Boylan, Cuffe is fighting an uphill battle for fourth spot, never mind third. There is a chance he could defeat Andrews but on polling last week with the Times, Andrews was on 18% and Cuffe on 9%, so it's hard to say. I really don't think White has a strong chance, on those numbers. I'd guess it will be Fitzgerald, Boylan, Andrews (I think he's more likely to poll around 15%) and the fourth seat to Daly/Cuffe.

Incidentally, there will only be one count, based on it being a four member constituency, not two counts. The quota will thus be 20%+1 in Dublin, not 25%+1. There had been some talk that the count could be split in two, due to the extra Brexit seat, but they've decided to go with one count only. I'm not sure the difference it will make but that's the way it's going to be counted.

I'm not so sure. Given SF tend not to be hugely transfer friendly I think Andrews might sneak the 2nd seat ahead of her if he's ahead on 1st preferences. 

I expect Greens to be very transfer friendly and that will secure the second seat for Cuffe

I think both Andrews and Boylan will not do well on transfers 

I could foresee a three way battle for the last two seats between Andrews, Boylan and Daly

I will be giving my number 2 vote to Gary Gannon

Gannon was reasonably impressive the other night, as was Alice Mary Higgins.

I still don't think either will get a seat, of course.

NW I think is reasonably easy to call for the first three seats, as McGuinness will probably get her seat back, as will Ming and Carthy. After that it is up to FF to transfer properly amongst each other. Casey’s vote could be interesting, as that side of the country has happily voted for conservative independents before, and FF are just not assured.  although I can’t help but feel Harkin’s Seat is available for a pro-EU moderate, which could give rise to the unlikely situation of FG returning two MEPs, but that is also contingent on transfers.

The South will see Kelly and Ni Riada returned, and FF should take something. Kelly’s transfers down, and the lowest FG candidate’s up could also make it a happy hunting ground for FG here too. Mick Wallace is also in play for this one, and perhaps Labour and Green transfers might help him, along with a swath of transfers which may come from home turf.

I’m not factoring in the “Brexit seats”. In reality, they don’t yet exist.

Gannon wont. I would like to see if the political force that elected Childers in 2014 could work for Higgins.

'some people say I'm racist, OF COURSE I'm a racist'

That was yesterday

It's probably the first time in his life he's told the truth about anything

SNP for me. Hope to see Alyn Smith, Christian Allard and Aileen McLeod elected 

I'd never heard of that Peter Casey chap before so looked him up on wikipedia, seems an interesting sort of right wing lunatic .....

The SNP winning big would be a good thing. The more unequivocally pro-remain the winners are, the better. The Tories are making a mess, Labour have no position and have failed on Brexit, and the bulk of the fringe are leave.

He's not in any way interesting

i asked all my family to vote for her , i like her style 

i'll vote green myself here in germany 

Wouldn't take much to move a market like that I'd have thought

Bating sh*t with a hurl has done him wonders

f**k them green ****s. they all sit centre of right 

Diarmuid O'Flynn is anti-choice and pro-Gemma O'Doherty

Two good reasons not to vote for him

I also feel that for a GP member to make the required leap you’d need an unprecedented voting change in a region where the Greens generally struggle to make an impact and often don’t don’t stand candidates.

What’s it with this desire on this forum to out left the left?

Because a lot of parties and politicians have a history of posing a certain way to gain support when the reality is often quite different.

The Irish 'new Labour Party being a fantastic example. I think it is a little harsh on the Greens, but I can certainly understand how someone could feel that way given their history.

 

The junior coalition party rarely does much when in power to be fair.

 

In Europe the Greens can be more effective as they would form part of the Greens-European Free Alliance group. I think the group currently only comprises of about 7% of the European Parliament but presently Ireland's contribution to the group is 0.0%, so we can't really complain too much about how poor the government is on environmental issues.

Diarmuid O'Flynn No.1

Mick Wallace No.2

and Yes to Mayor and Divorce. 

Will pop down after work again with my polling card this time and probably head to Waterford to vote again with another polling card in my name. great little country this! 

We are Green

We are fookin' dynamite

La la la la la la la la la la la

Even better if it displaces the likes of Ming and some Shinners.

Seems to a trend across Europe - part of the push against the climate change deniers on the right / Trump as much as a vote for the Green Party.

People also observing what their kids are learning in school.

Hopefully bring green deal topics more to the forefront.

They'll mix the ballot papers first before counting. 

Say you need 1000 to get elected and the first in the pool gets 1200 votes, they'll disregard the first 1000 and then distribute the #2s, if they're there, from the other 200. 

I give out about kids attitudes these days and how they are so mollycoddled now but my experience since going back teaching is how much they care now about environmental issues when a few years ago they didn't give a fiddlers. Refreshing to see!if I could get them more interested in English and Irish now id be on to a winner!

 

She has made an absolute bollix of herself bringing this to court.

 

 

so some peoples votes are worth more than others and it relies on randomness. that doesn't seem right.

in above example (simplified) if FG got 1200 no 1's, and the 200 surplus has 200 GP no 2's, what about the 1000 ballots not selected that had IND as no 2, are they just disregarded

These are the parties that the right-wing media have been telling us for years that there was a serious gap in the market for

How out of touch can they can be

Very, is the answer

Lovely stuff

A lot of left transfers to go around in Dublin

I think it will be 

1 Cuffe

2 Fitzgerald 

3 Daly

4 Boylan

5 Andrews

Pretty much but the chance of mixing them and ending up like that are pretty much zero, should be broadly representative of the overall vote 

No thanks

Fianna Fail and Fine Gael sit with climate dinosaurs in the European Parliament

Fianna Fail is Mayor Quimby.

FF are with ALDE. Not a dinosaur grouping at all.

Read Fintan O'Toole's article in last Saturday's Irish Times

They are

ALDE are not dinosaurs at all on the issue. I know that for a fact.

Some great bargains, never know what you'd find in that middle aisle 

Doing the local count and got this wrong, the votes are distributed pro rata as a percentage of the preferences.

So if someone got 1000 votes and surplus was 100, everyone would get 10% of their second preference votes added.

Interesting potential result in Dublin. There's a chance the final five could be:

Cuffe / FitzGerald / Andrews / Daly / Boylan

But this is interesting, because in that event, the four elected would be Cuffe, FitzGerald, Andrews and Daly, with Daly as the fourth, Brexit MEP.... despite the fact if it was a three seater, you'd expect Boylan's transfers to go disproportionately to Daly over Andrews, such that if it was a three seater, the result could be Cuffe, FitzGerald, Daly. I'm not sure they'll be that close but there is a chance that the way the electoral system works, that could be the result.

I'm not sure you can necessarily blame the Taoiseach for this or that it was designed to work in a way that favoured one party over the other; there were far too many moving parts and it seems it was designed to make the count easier rather than for any purpose nefarious.

people have short memories also. wasn't even 10 years ago they f**ked this country up along with Fianna Scum and then all of a sudden all is forgiven. generation emigration my bollox 

Mission accomplished. 

 

 

 

 

 

Naomi Long basically certain to get the third seat in the North now. She could even finish second above Anderson, although that's not certain. If Allister is eliminated next (not impossible on current figures - although you'd have to imagine he'll get a good number of surplus transfers from Diane Dodds and overtake Eastwood as a result), you'd imagine he would have virtually no transfers to Anderson, whereas there should be a decent number to Long, in preference to the other remaining candidates of Eastwood and Anderson. If Eastwood goes, his transfers may first go to Anderson rather than Long, pushing her over a quota before Long, but either way, Long will get the third seat, because there won't be many transfers from Allister to Eastwood or vice versa. That being the case, even if they are close to tied, there'll be no recount, because the tallies will show that neither have a chance of catching Long.

The count isn't finished but the outcome is a foregone conclusion. The only interesting thing is whether Long is elected ahead of Anderson, which remains a distinct possibility.

Mairead McGuinness first MEP to be elected says she would rather eat razor blades than work with the Brexit Party leader and now MEP Nigel Farage! 

There's  no Brexit seat in Midlands North West.  Only in Dublin and Ireland South

Ah I see.

Interesting shenanigans for the last seat in Dublin. It looks like there could well be a legal battle over who gets the fourth seat and who gets the third seat. It'll be Daly and Andrews but the order is crucial, given the fact the fourth seat will not be filled for some time (Brexit dependent).

My reading of the legislation (and having spent the last hour discussing it on the twitter machine) is that Boylan's votes should be distributed to Andrews and Daly, as neither is currently deemed elected. I could explain it in detail but it would take too long and I'm not particularly confident that I'm correct.

The votes of the highest unelected candidate are never distributed. 

That's why the question of whether this is a three seater or a four seater constituency is so key - though it beggars belief that there are arguments over it now as the count nears its end - something like this was entirely foreseeable - seat 4 may well turn out to be a dud as the Brits may yet not leave at all. 

In any event, I think controversy will probably be avoided, and Daly will take seat 3. 

She has a deficit of 3,867 to make up on Andrews, off the distribution of Gary Gannon's 29,720 votes.

I think she'll do that. 

Even if Boylan's vote of 46k odd were to then be distributed as would happen in a normal three seater constituency, it would only push Daly much further ahead. 

Andrews could expect to gain a bit from Frances Fitzgerald's surplus of 5790, but he'd only be pissing in the wind at that stage. 

I think either way, Daly has seat 3, and Andrews will be the one playing the game of Waiting for Brexit.

Full recount in Ireland South. It looked like Ni Riada was about to lose her seat by about 300 votes but the returning officer has ordered a full recount, from the start.

Kelly, Kelleher and Wallace should still be safe but there'll be an argument over the fourth / fifth breakdown in the end no matter what, even if Ni Riada misses out, because of the Brexit seat issue.

It'll be another four days before this is decided!

f**king hell 

Poor f**kers 

Possibly.

However, I’m not sure what difference it would make. I suspect no party has a chance of an overall majority, and the smaller parties apart from the Greens and SDs won’t want one.

We'll have one, Fianna Fail will pick something that they say they can't go along with. 

More likely Leo will go for it more than anything else I reckon. FF be content to hold off until next summer. 

They're probably going to the polls next summer anyway. Might as well go in September/October rather than forking out for 4 by-elections and then having a GE 6/7 months later.

16 years on it’s a debate worth revisiting.

A rare Bertie misstep when he was Tee-Shock & flying in the polls. Machines still stored in a warehouse in Johnstown, Waterford (someone with FF connections owns the warehouse) all these years later.