European Elections 2019 |
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SuperDave84
Robbie Keane ooh Thomas, how could you do this to me! Joined: 26 Aug 2011 Location: Far Fungannon Status: Offline Points: 21384 |
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The latest polls have Fitzgerald at 17%, Boylan at 13%, Andrews at 12%, Cuffe at 11%, Daly at 9%, Durkan at 8% and White at 5%, with the remainder being the likes of PBP, Social Democrats and the assorted nutters like Kelly and Gilroy all polling below 5%. With transfers from the left leaning candidates eliminated early likely to favour Daly and to a lesser extent Boylan, Cuffe is fighting an uphill battle for fourth spot, never mind third. There is a chance he could defeat Andrews but on polling last week with the Times, Andrews was on 18% and Cuffe on 9%, so it's hard to say. I really don't think White has a strong chance, on those numbers. I'd guess it will be Fitzgerald, Boylan, Andrews (I think he's more likely to poll around 15%) and the fourth seat to Daly/Cuffe. Incidentally, there will only be one count, based on it being a four member constituency, not two counts. The quota will thus be 20%+1 in Dublin, not 25%+1. There had been some talk that the count could be split in two, due to the extra Brexit seat, but they've decided to go with one count only. I'm not sure the difference it will make but that's the way it's going to be counted.
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Denis Irwin
Robbie Keane Stay Home & watch Lethal Weapon Joined: 03 Feb 2008 Location: Ath Cliath Status: Offline Points: 37960 |
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I'm not so sure. Given SF tend not to be hugely transfer friendly I think Andrews might sneak the 2nd seat ahead of her if he's ahead on 1st preferences.
Edited by Denis Irwin - 22 May 2019 at 1:20pm |
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Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one".
Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn |
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sid waddell
Roy Keane On a dark desert highway Joined: 20 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 12173 |
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I expect Greens to be very transfer friendly and that will secure the second seat for Cuffe I think both Andrews and Boylan will not do well on transfers I could foresee a three way battle for the last two seats between Andrews, Boylan and Daly I will be giving my number 2 vote to Gary Gannon |
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9fingers
Paul McGrath Ballymun Resident #MONKEANO Joined: 30 Jan 2010 Status: Offline Points: 16154 |
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I’d agree Cuffe should make the cut. Gannon will poll best of the also rans (ie those currently polling around 5% or lower)
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SuperDave84
Robbie Keane ooh Thomas, how could you do this to me! Joined: 26 Aug 2011 Location: Far Fungannon Status: Offline Points: 21384 |
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Gannon was reasonably impressive the other night, as was Alice Mary Higgins. I still don't think either will get a seat, of course.
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Het-field
Roy Keane By Appointment to His Majesty The King Joined: 08 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 10744 |
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In most constituencies there are seats that are simply not up for grabs. That’s where the transfers at the foot of the results will make all the difference. I hope Cuffe is transfer friendly enough to secure a seat, and my preference is for the other pro-EU parties to pick up the rest. The problem is, the Dublin ballot is full of eurocritic-eurosceptic- europhobic candidates who might well push somebody over the line as such voters might lend their vote in order to ensure a eurosceptic is elected, or indeed people who just aren’t aware their candidate is a eurosceptic. Another and different interesting facet is whether somebody like Alice Mary Higgins could pull off a Nessa Childers style surprise, as a transfer friendly independent. This could equally benefit Claire Daly, who could squeeze the third seat.
NW I think is reasonably easy to call for the first three seats, as McGuinness will probably get her seat back, as will Ming and Carthy. After that it is up to FF to transfer properly amongst each other. Casey’s vote could be interesting, as that side of the country has happily voted for conservative independents before, and FF are just not assured. although I can’t help but feel Harkin’s Seat is available for a pro-EU moderate, which could give rise to the unlikely situation of FG returning two MEPs, but that is also contingent on transfers. The South will see Kelly and Ni Riada returned, and FF should take something. Kelly’s transfers down, and the lowest FG candidate’s up could also make it a happy hunting ground for FG here too. Mick Wallace is also in play for this one, and perhaps Labour and Green transfers might help him, along with a swath of transfers which may come from home turf. I’m not factoring in the “Brexit seats”. In reality, they don’t yet exist.
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Het-field
Roy Keane By Appointment to His Majesty The King Joined: 08 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 10744 |
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Gannon wont. I would like to see if the political force that elected Childers in 2014 could work for Higgins.
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LO SCIENZIATO
Liam Brady Fucknut Of The Year Joined: 24 Aug 2018 Status: Offline Points: 1520 |
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Daly will get the last seat. she will have a massive transfer allocation. She will pull another Joe Higgins and gain a seat for the left
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nvidic
Moderator Group Joined: 03 Aug 2010 Status: Online Points: 19015 |
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Video doing the rounds of Casey with a soap box type set up today
'some people say I'm racist, OF COURSE I'm a racist'
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sid waddell
Roy Keane On a dark desert highway Joined: 20 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 12173 |
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That was yesterday It's probably the first time in his life he's told the truth about anything
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ErsatzThistle
Liam Brady Joined: 05 Nov 2013 Location: Glasgow Status: Offline Points: 1013 |
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SNP for me. Hope to see Alyn Smith, Christian Allard and Aileen McLeod elected I'd never heard of that Peter Casey chap before so looked him up on wikipedia, seems an interesting sort of right wing lunatic .....
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Het-field
Roy Keane By Appointment to His Majesty The King Joined: 08 Mar 2016 Status: Offline Points: 10744 |
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The SNP winning big would be a good thing. The more unequivocally pro-remain the winners are, the better. The Tories are making a mess, Labour have no position and have failed on Brexit, and the bulk of the fringe are leave.
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sid waddell
Roy Keane On a dark desert highway Joined: 20 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 12173 |
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He's not in any way interesting
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colmoc
Jack Charlton serious foot fetish Joined: 09 Feb 2009 Status: Offline Points: 7582 |
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Ben Gilroy has came from 150/1 into 10/1 with pp to get elected. Does he have a squeak? Gonna back saoirse mchugh in midlands at 4/1
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RogerMilla
Moderator Group #TEAMJAVIER #ENGANCHE Joined: 15 Feb 2007 Location: Delaney Park Status: Offline Points: 34858 |
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i asked all my family to vote for her , i like her style i'll vote green myself here in germany
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The first time the Devil made me do it. The second time I did it on my own.
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Denis Irwin
Robbie Keane Stay Home & watch Lethal Weapon Joined: 03 Feb 2008 Location: Ath Cliath Status: Offline Points: 37960 |
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Wouldn't take much to move a market like that I'd have thought
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Eamonn Dunphy:"I'll tell you who wrote it, Rod Liddle, he's the guy who ran away and left his wife for a young one".
Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn |
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lassassinblanc
Paul McGrath Cheese, it’s not just for eating Joined: 27 Sep 2010 Location: Clairefontaine Status: Offline Points: 16494 |
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Bating sh*t with a hurl has done him wonders
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MayoMark
Moderator Group The NEW angrier Freewheeler Joined: 27 Jan 2009 Location: Castlebar Status: Offline Points: 26343 |
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McHugh for me
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They finally did it man... They killed my f**kin' car...
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