UEFA Nations League

But likely a home semi final.

Yep. Presume if we don't get a home draw we'll have a friendly at the end of May regardless of the outcome

There will be a draw as far as I know, as Hungary winning would mean we have 5 teams in League B (Us Bosnia the North Slovakia and Wales). So there's a possibility of us being drawn to A although I'm not sure how that would work as they would try to avoid hosts being paired

Sounds like Bosnia have to stay in B which means it would be us, Wales, Slovakia, or the North that get drawn to A potentially. Hopefully it would be Wales or us. But not sure I want to root for that as there's still a real chance of Wales away there.

Maybe not the exact wording but that’s a rule. 

Don’t see how they can keep this rule, move us up to A and separate us, Romania and Scotland (hosts).

If they scrapped worrying about the hosts and Hungary qualify, they could choose one of us, Wales, Slovaks and NI to jump up to A. 25% chance. 

I was hoping they would have a 50-50 draw between the hosts whose path can be changed (us and Romania) to go up to A, but this would then be hypocritical as it would leave Romania in C with another host if they were not drawn, as they can’t move to B with the rule I stated. 

Correct me if I’m wrong please. 

Think a Welsh win and Slovakia away semi is what I can realistically hope for though. 

If there are four teams from League B in the playoffs (i.e. if Hungary do not qualify tonight) then there is little doubt UEFA will leave it as it is with us in the League B playoffs, away to either Wales or Slovakia (whoever doesn't make it), playing the winner of Bosnia v Norn Iron.

They won't move us and Romania to the A playoffs. Assuming either Wales or Slovakia qualify, what should happen is the following:

League D: Georgia v Belarus; Macedonia v Kosovo

League C: Scotland v [Hungary or Romania or Bulgaria or Israel]; Norway v Serbia

League B: Bosnia v Norn Iron; [Wales or Slovakia] v Ireland

League A: Iceland v [Hungary or Romania]; [Bulgaria or Israel] v [Israel or Hungary or Romania]

In League C, Scotland, Norway and Serbia have to stay in that path, and cannot face a team from a higher league, because they won their NL group. The fourth team there will likely be by way of a single draw from the four teams. Because either the League A or League C playoffs will have to have two hosts, they should simply draw that at random, with that side being in League C, and the other three sides from the draw being bumped up to the League A playoffs. Once that single draw has been conducted, the only other draws needed are for the four hosts of the playoff finals.

However, if Hungary qualify (either by winning tonight, or by drawing and Slovakia not beating Azerbaijan), then things are a little bit different. I would guess the following would apply:

League A: Iceland v Romania; [Wales or Slovakia or Norn Iron] v [Bulgaria or Israel]

Romania would be moved to League A to begin with, in order to keep hosts in separate paths. The first draw required would be in League C: it would be to pick either Bulgaria or Israel to face Scotland, with the other side moving to League A. The second draw would be in League B: it would be to pick Wales, Slovakia or Norn Iron to move to League A.

While UEFA could change these rules, and the rumblings from the FAI seem to indicate that there is a possibility that they might, on the current rules (and with the possibility of complaints from other nations if they do change things around) I would guess that the above is the most likely way things will be run. If there are five League B teams, it could be the case that UEFA will decide to have an open draw from Wales, Slovakia, Ireland and Northern Ireland to move to the League A playoffs, but I think it is unlikely that they would want two hosts in a single playoff path if that could be avoided. The way that is avoided, in that scenario, is by keeping us in the League B path and having Romania in the League A path.