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Jack Charlton
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Sarajevo was nice
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Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:

Mod Edit: 

Crap Senior gone on his holidays, I won't be bringing him back, though he's probably re-registering as we speak. 

@Terence- keep the thread on topic, there's a lot of fans out there haven't a clue of this playoff process, and there's too much excellent info on here to get bogged down & sidetracked with the usual bollix, I'm aware you aren't the instigator of the latest examples.
Deise316. 

Fair do's, point taken.

Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:

If ya want to do something productive, go figure the best way to get from Belfast to Bosnia.
Waaaaaaaay ahead of you already! Thumbs Up
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Originally posted by gufct gufct wrote:

Sarajevo was nice

Certainly is.

Though it seems Bosnia play some of their games in Zenica, which is 75 kms from Sarajevo. Both stadia are small - around 15k? - so away tickets could be a real problem.
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Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:

Waaaaaaaay ahead of you already! Thumbs Up

Are ya though ?  Posted on Sept 8th............... Wink


Originally posted by deise316 deise316 wrote:

 
If Terrence, Florrie or any of the NI lads are reading or half interested, their most likely playoff opponents as things stand are Bosnia away (if drawn in B playoff) and possibly ourselves in Dublin if drawn in A - I think NI can only be in position 4 in B (as long as 4 or more are in playoffs from B) regardless, and positions 2 (unlikely), 3 or 4 in A. 


Just to update that a bit, I don't think ye can get us in Dublin in A now (thankfully for all involved)- mainly because of what Yoco posted earlier about us staying in B due to the Dublin/Bilbao fixtures, but also as is is quite likely Romania (another host) will make the A playoff (they can't be drawn in B) and probably be kept apart from us. 






Edited by deise316 - 17 Oct 2019 at 2:46pm
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Just to go through the results we (probably) want on a group by group basis:

Group A: Czech Republic to beat Kosovo (h) on 14 November - even without that, Czech Republic could and should still finish second.
Group B: Portugal to beat Lithuania (a) on 14 November and Luxembourg (h) on 17 November - that should happen.
Group C: Netherlands at least draw in Northern Ireland (a) on 16 November - that will finish that group if Germany also beat Belarus at home on the same date.

Group E: So long as Hungary are kept out of qualification, that's the main thing. Slovakia and Wales are both above us. Wales to beat Hungary (h) on 19 November is the main thing & is likely to be enough (if Wales beat Azerbaijan (a) on 16 November or if Slovakia beat Azerbaijan (h) on 19 November). Even Wales drawing with Hungary will be enough, regardless of anything else, if Slovakia beat Azerbaijan.
Group F: Sweden at least draw in Romania (a) on 15 November & beat Faroe Islands (h) on 18 November - or Sweden beat Faroe Islands and Spain beat Romania (h) on 18 November.
Group G: Austria beat North Macedonia (h) on 16 November or beat Latvia (a) on 19 November - a single point in either game is also almost certain to be enough.
Group H: Doesn't particularly matter, as Turkey, France and Iceland are all above us.
Group I: Already finished & in our favour.
Group J: Finland are going to beat Liechtenstein and qualify, so that group is over & bad for us - Bosnia are in the playoffs.

If I was a betting man, I'd say that the following will be the teams above us in the playoffs:
Group A: none
Group B: none
Group C: none

Group E: none
Group F: Wales or Slovakia but not both
Group G: none
Group H: Iceland
Group I: none
Group J: Bosnia

I'd guess it will be three teams above us with only four League B teams in the playoffs, which isn't ideal.


Edited by SuperDave84 - 17 Oct 2019 at 3:01pm
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Originally posted by deise316 deise316 wrote:

Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:

Waaaaaaaay ahead of you already! Thumbs Up

Are ya though ?  Posted on Sept 8th............... Wink


I've been researching multiple travel permutations to about a dozen different possible venues, since long before September, saddo that I am! LOL

Originally posted by deise316 deise316 wrote:

Just to update that a bit, I don't think ye can get us in Dublin in A now (thankfully for all involved)- mainly because of what Yoco posted earlier about us staying in B due to the Dublin/Bilbao fixtures, but also as is is quite likely Romania (another host) will make the A playoff (they can't be drawn in B) and probably be kept apart from us. 

Not a game I'd ever want, either, for all the same reasons I expect.

Though on the purely footballing front, unless the "Derby" angle proved a leveller, I'd be very confident: we've now won 6 of our last 8 games, with the other two being defeats to Germany and Netherlands, both close enough. Thumbs Up
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Bosnia to Slovakia looks like a total pain in the hole at short notice, and vice versa.

Unhelpfully, the Wizzair Vienna to Tuzla route is seasonal and only starts on 31 March, just in time to miss the playoffs.
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Who will be the lucky League C team that gets to play a home playoff and get bumped up to League A playoffs? The League A playoffs will probably end up being worse team than the League B playoffs. 
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Romania or Hungary, depending on who ends up in the playoffs.

There's going to be a real headache for UEFA if, as looks increasingly likely, Ireland (or Denmark), Hungary, Romania and Scotland all end up in the playoffs.
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Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:


Group E: So long as Hungary are kept out of qualification, that's the main thing. Slovakia and Wales are both above us. Wales to beat Hungary (h) on 19 November is the main thing & is likely to be enough (if Wales beat Azerbaijan (a) on 16 November or if Slovakia beat Azerbaijan (h) on 19 November). Even Wales drawing with Hungary will be enough, regardless of anything else, if Slovakia beat Azerbaijan.


Why is Hungary being kept out the main thing?

Is it because they are a host and if in playoffs, we would be subjected to a draw to avoid two hosts in same path, thus there is a risk we could go into a playoff path with Iceland?
"I'm off to see the Queen tomorrow too, don't forget that"
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As far as I can make out Rolo, in the event of 5 B playoff teams not qualifying (ie Hungary qualifying and all of Bosnia, Slovakia, Wales, us and the North not qualifying) - there's a draw for 4 of those teams to be in playoff B. 

I don't think we will be allowed into A because Romania (also hosts) are likely to be there, Bosnia must stay in B also, so one of the other 3 would go to A playoff path,  and have a home draw too. That's not 100% clear yet, but UEFA made some vague statement about keeping hosts apart if possible. . 

In a side note, I can remember a time not too long ago where you were one of the permutations and ranking experts here, and I was the the one saying " ah never mind all that, it's a load of bollix"  What happened ya !!! LOLLOL




Edited by deise316 - 17 Oct 2019 at 6:40pm
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Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:


Group E: So long as Hungary are kept out of qualification, that's the main thing. Slovakia and Wales are both above us. Wales to beat Hungary (h) on 19 November is the main thing & is likely to be enough (if Wales beat Azerbaijan (a) on 16 November or if Slovakia beat Azerbaijan (h) on 19 November). Even Wales drawing with Hungary will be enough, regardless of anything else, if Slovakia beat Azerbaijan.


Why is Hungary being kept out the main thing?

Is it because they are a host and if in playoffs, we would be subjected to a draw to avoid two hosts in same path, thus there is a risk we could go into a playoff path with Iceland?


I think so, but frankly I'm not sure what will happen if Scotland, Hungary, Romania and ourselves end up in the playoffs, or even if two of them do. Thinking it over, I think what is likely there is that, if there are a minimum of four League B teams in the playoffs, we will be in the League B playoffs no matter what, and either Romania or Hungary in the League A playoffs (assuming they end up in the playoffs, that is), given that Scotland have to be left in the League C playoffs.

It's going to be very messy, because there is a good chance of there being four hosts in the playoffs and none of them can be dropped to the League D playoffs. UEFA could really do with Georgia beating Switzerland and both us and Denmark making the finals, unlikely and all as that is. That is obviously startlingly unrealistic but it could be close to the only way UEFA avoid a redrawn finals draw in March 2020.
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Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:

Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:


Group E: So long as Hungary are kept out of qualification, that's the main thing. Slovakia and Wales are both above us. Wales to beat Hungary (h) on 19 November is the main thing & is likely to be enough (if Wales beat Azerbaijan (a) on 16 November or if Slovakia beat Azerbaijan (h) on 19 November). Even Wales drawing with Hungary will be enough, regardless of anything else, if Slovakia beat Azerbaijan.


Why is Hungary being kept out the main thing?

Is it because they are a host and if in playoffs, we would be subjected to a draw to avoid two hosts in same path, thus there is a risk we could go into a playoff path with Iceland?


I think so, but frankly I'm not sure what will happen if Scotland, Hungary, Romania and ourselves end up in the playoffs, or even if two of them do. Thinking it over, I think what is likely there is that, if there are a minimum of four League B teams in the playoffs, we will be in the League B playoffs no matter what, and either Romania or Hungary in the League A playoffs (assuming they end up in the playoffs, that is), given that Scotland have to be left in the League C playoffs.

It's going to be very messy, because there is a good chance of there being four hosts in the playoffs and none of them can be dropped to the League D playoffs. UEFA could really do with Georgia beating Switzerland and both us and Denmark making the finals, unlikely and all as that is. That is obviously startlingly unrealistic but it could be close to the only way UEFA avoid a redrawn finals draw in March 2020.

UEFA will surely consider moving the goalposts if that does come to pass and moving a host to the league D playoffs.

They only a couple of weeks ago changed the whole seeding for the next nations league so it wouldn’t be surprising. 
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Originally posted by Pipkin Pipkin wrote:

Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:

Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:


Group E: So long as Hungary are kept out of qualification, that's the main thing. Slovakia and Wales are both above us. Wales to beat Hungary (h) on 19 November is the main thing & is likely to be enough (if Wales beat Azerbaijan (a) on 16 November or if Slovakia beat Azerbaijan (h) on 19 November). Even Wales drawing with Hungary will be enough, regardless of anything else, if Slovakia beat Azerbaijan.






Why is Hungary being kept out the main thing?

Is it because they are a host and if in playoffs, we would be subjected to a draw to avoid two hosts in same path, thus there is a risk we could go into a playoff path with Iceland?


I think so, but frankly I'm not sure what will happen if Scotland, Hungary, Romania and ourselves end up in the playoffs, or even if two of them do. Thinking it over, I think what is likely there is that, if there are a minimum of four League B teams in the playoffs, we will be in the League B playoffs no matter what, and either Romania or Hungary in the League A playoffs (assuming they end up in the playoffs, that is), given that Scotland have to be left in the League C playoffs.

It's going to be very messy, because there is a good chance of there being four hosts in the playoffs and none of them can be dropped to the League D playoffs. UEFA could really do with Georgia beating Switzerland and both us and Denmark making the finals, unlikely and all as that is. That is obviously startlingly unrealistic but it could be close to the only way UEFA avoid a redrawn finals draw in March 2020.


UEFA will surely consider moving the goalposts if that does come to pass and moving a host to the league D playoffs.

They only a couple of weeks ago changed the whole seeding for the next nations league so it wouldn’t be surprising. 

Imagine we were bumped down to League D and had to play Georgia

Edited by GB 1HughJarse - 17 Oct 2019 at 7:29pm
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Originally posted by UCDFAN UCDFAN wrote:

Originally posted by pre Madonna pre Madonna wrote:

Originally posted by Gabrieléire Gabrieléire wrote:

sorting travel for that potential double header would be a nightmare surely? And tickets as well, would it be sold as a double header match? With refund if we didn’t win the semi-final? The thought of winning in Bosnia and trying to work out a way to either, get to Bratislava, Cardiff or home LOL

I’m sure though, many people will have it worked out well before if it comes to it. All part of the fun of being an international football fan Smile
We will only have one game, which will male the trip easier.*

*Unless UEFA have added a back foot through a third-place playoff in the playoffs.

*mail the trip. It used to be a cheap travel option for people to move about.

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Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:

Just to go through the results we (probably) want on a group by group basis:

Group A: Czech Republic to beat Kosovo (h) on 14 November - even without that, Czech Republic could and should still finish second.
Group B: Portugal to beat Lithuania (a) on 14 November and Luxembourg (h) on 17 November - that should happen.
Group C: Netherlands at least draw in Northern Ireland (a) on 16 November - that will finish that group if Germany also beat Belarus at home on the same date.

Group E: So long as Hungary are kept out of qualification, that's the main thing. Slovakia and Wales are both above us. Wales to beat Hungary (h) on 19 November is the main thing & is likely to be enough (if Wales beat Azerbaijan (a) on 16 November or if Slovakia beat Azerbaijan (h) on 19 November). Even Wales drawing with Hungary will be enough, regardless of anything else, if Slovakia beat Azerbaijan.
Group F: Sweden at least draw in Romania (a) on 15 November & beat Faroe Islands (h) on 18 November - or Sweden beat Faroe Islands and Spain beat Romania (h) on 18 November.
Group G: Austria beat North Macedonia (h) on 16 November or beat Latvia (a) on 19 November - a single point in either game is also almost certain to be enough.
Group H: Doesn't particularly matter, as Turkey, France and Iceland are all above us.
Group I: Already finished & in our favour.
Group J: Finland are going to beat Liechtenstein and qualify, so that group is over & bad for us - Bosnia are in the playoffs.

If I was a betting man, I'd say that the following will be the teams above us in the playoffs:
Group A: none
Group B: none
Group C: none

Group E: none
Group F: Wales or Slovakia but not both
Group G: none
Group H: Iceland
Group I: none
Group J: Bosnia

I'd guess it will be three teams above us with only four League B teams in the playoffs, which isn't ideal.

Is there any permutations that sees Northern Ireland miss out completely on a play-off?
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NI miss out if eight sides above them do not qualify directly. Going through the groups in turn:
Group A: If Kosovo make it ahead of Czech Republic or England, that's one. One of England or Czech Republic is guaranteed.
Group B: If Serbia make it ahead of Portugal, that's two.
Group C: That's their group.
Group D: Whoever doesn't make it here, that's three.
Group E: If Hungary make it ahead of Wales and Slovakia, that's four and five.
Group F: If Sweden don't make it, that's six.
Group G: If Austria don't make it, that's seven.
Group H: Whoever doesn't make it here, that's eight.
Group I: No one above them here who won't make it.
Group J: Bosnia are already there, and that's nine above them.

In our case,

Group A: If Kosovo make it ahead of Czech Republic or England, that's one. One of England or Czech Republic is guaranteed.
Group B: If Serbia make it ahead of Portugal, that's two.
Group C: Assuming Norn Iron don't make it, we stay on two.
Group D: If we finish third, stays on two.
Group E: If Hungary make it ahead of Wales and Slovakia, that's three and four.
Group F: If Sweden don't make it, that's five.
Group G: If Austria don't make it, that's six.
Group H: Whoever doesn't make it here, that's seven.
Group I: No one above them here who won't make it.
Group J: Bosnia are already there, and that's eight above us.

We are potentially similarly screwed. Realistically, assuming both us and them don't make it, we need one of the teams above us "at risk" to qualify automatically and they need two. However, given the number who are going to make it or need next to nothing to do so, we are both basically guaranteed playoffs.

The odds of us being in the playoffs and Norn Iron missing out completely are basically nil. Austria and Sweden are almost 100% guaranteed to qualify automatically and there are plenty more besides who should.


Edited by SuperDave84 - 17 Oct 2019 at 8:51pm
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Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:

Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:


Group E: So long as Hungary are kept out of qualification, that's the main thing. Slovakia and Wales are both above us. Wales to beat Hungary (h) on 19 November is the main thing & is likely to be enough (if Wales beat Azerbaijan (a) on 16 November or if Slovakia beat Azerbaijan (h) on 19 November). Even Wales drawing with Hungary will be enough, regardless of anything else, if Slovakia beat Azerbaijan.


Why is Hungary being kept out the main thing?

Is it because they are a host and if in playoffs, we would be subjected to a draw to avoid two hosts in same path, thus there is a risk we could go into a playoff path with Iceland?


I think so, but frankly I'm not sure what will happen if Scotland, Hungary, Romania and ourselves end up in the playoffs, or even if two of them do. Thinking it over, I think what is likely there is that, if there are a minimum of four League B teams in the playoffs, we will be in the League B playoffs no matter what, and either Romania or Hungary in the League A playoffs (assuming they end up in the playoffs, that is), given that Scotland have to be left in the League C playoffs.

It's going to be very messy, because there is a good chance of there being four hosts in the playoffs and none of them can be dropped to the League D playoffs. UEFA could really do with Georgia beating Switzerland and both us and Denmark making the finals, unlikely and all as that is. That is obviously startlingly unrealistic but it could be close to the only way UEFA avoid a redrawn finals draw in March 2020.

Hungary are lower than us in the nations league rankings, and UEFA have stated that each path will be filled with teams from that particular league before teams get moved to different paths.
League B will be filled with the top 4 teams, and then teams will be moved from C to A to fill A.

Which is why I asked about Hungary, because they will be below us and thus will be in C or A.

So where I would disgree with you, is that I would say the main thing is not Hungary missing out on qualification, as it likely wont matter (as you say, we will be in B no matter what), but rather the main thing for me is that Wales DO qualify, thus taking them out of the mix in our path.
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