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Paul McGrath
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Points: 16469 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote lassassinblanc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Sep 2019 at 8:59pm
Originally posted by colemanY2K colemanY2K wrote:

Originally posted by deise316 deise316 wrote:

One leg SF, one leg final, 3 days apart. One of the 2 semi finalists will play in the final at home. 

How are they intending on selling final tickets etc. for a venue that isn't known? It'd be some ball ache for away supporters trying to arrange logistics for the final with only 3 days notice. 

I'd imagine a draw would be made for the final host
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Originally posted by Lenny82 Lenny82 wrote:

If we beat Bulgaria on Tuesday, there'll be nobody posting on this one as we'll all be talking about topping the group!

eh?
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lads thanks for all the posts explaining this. 

I am one thick **** , i havent a clue whats going on 
The first time the Devil made me do it. The second time I did it on my own.
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I've read everything on here and I'm lost 
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Some amount of giant killing this weekend. A few Accas been ruined I'd say. 
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Edit

Edited by irishmufc - 09 Sep 2019 at 7:15pm
Wings? They're only the band The Beatles could have been.
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Looking at the Wiki table am I right in thinking that Wales and the Czechs will go into the B playoff rather than being bumped to A? That would seem fairest?

If that logic is right, Israel would go to B playoff and Hungary to A?


Edited by VanBosch - 09 Sep 2019 at 10:07pm
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Originally posted by VanBosch VanBosch wrote:

Looking at the Wiki table am I right in thinking that Wales and the Czechs will go into the B playoff rather than being bumped to A? That would seem fairest?

If that logic is right, Israel would go to B playoff and Hungary to B?

In short, No. The 'as things stand' table is of little use right now, though it will be 100% accurate at the end LOL. The simplest example here is the North. They currently occupy an automatic spot, but probably need 4 points off the Dutch to keep it. This is unlikely. Bosnia are also in very deep trouble and look like they are headed for a B playoff. So to make any kind of realistic prediction, you have to allow for things that are likely to happen. 

Bosnia have to stay in B. NI are near certain to be a B team that doesn't qualify. If the Czechs and Wales were the only other teams not qualifying out of B, that would leave 4 teams in B, out of which a playoff pathway must be formed from those 4. This would take the form of a rankings based draw, so it would be NI away to Bosnia, and Czechs away to Wales, simple as that. 

Where it gets complicated is if more than 4 teams from B don't qualify automatically. Say ourselves and Turkey join the above 4. 

In that case, Bosnia stay in B and are ranked 1. Three more teams from B are drawn out of Cze, Wal, Tur, Ire & NI to form, playoff pathway B. If NI are drawn in B, they have to be 4, they're the lowest ranked.  If we are drawn in B with NI & Bosnia, we have to be 3. If we are drawn in B without NI, we are ranked 4.

The remaining 2 teams in that scenario not drawn in B go to playoff pathway A, possibly with 2 other C teams if all A teams have qualified automatically. Playoff A is where Israel & Hungary would end up in that scenario, both away in SF. 


 
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Regarding possible B teams not qualifying automatically; 
Bosnia- in serious bother
Czechs- in a bit of bother
Denmark- in a bit of bother, though if they get out of it, we or Swiss replace them in either A (Swiss) or B (us)
A minimum of one, and possibly 2 of Croatia, Wales & Slovakia end up in playoffs - whether A or B depends on exactly who qualifies. Big shock for Croatia this evening too. 
Sweden- will probably make it, but nowhere near over the line yet
Austria- have slipped out of automatic spot right now, probably still be favourites to make it, but not done yet
Turkey- might get there ahead of France or Iceland yet, but that merely puts one of FR & Ice in league A playoff.
NI- proper fcuked. 


Edit- basically all that means is it is quite likely more than 4 B teams won't qualify automatically, which is good for us if we end up in the playoffs, as it increases our chances of a home draw. If exactly 4 B teams don't qualify and we are one of those, we have an away SF no matter what. 

There is no scenario that I can see that only 3 teams are left out of B, as that would mean 9 B teams qualifying automatically and 11 A teams. With the Croatia and France groups the way they are, if those 2 qualify from A, it means more than 3 teams would have to be in B at the end. 





Edited by deise316 - 09 Sep 2019 at 10:53pm
Picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.....
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Scotland seem f**ked in the grp stage but have a guranteed League C playoff 

So a league D team goes through to the finals through the League D playoffs and Georgia are guaranteed to be there 
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Originally posted by Healy52003 Healy52003 wrote:

Scotland seem f**ked in the grp stage but have a guranteed League C playoff 

So a league D team goes through to the finals through the League D playoffs and Georgia are guaranteed to be there 


They have a very good chance too, as the strongest team in D (Kosovo) could well qualify automatically. Georgia would be at home to Lux in SF if Kosovo qualify automatically, and play one of North Macedonia or Belarus in playoff D final. Wish our permutations were as handy.
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Originally posted by deise316 deise316 wrote:

Originally posted by Healy52003 Healy52003 wrote:

Scotland seem f**ked in the grp stage but have a guranteed League C playoff 

So a league D team goes through to the finals through the League D playoffs and Georgia are guaranteed to be there 


They have a very good chance too, as the strongest team in D (Kosovo) could well qualify automatically. Georgia would be at home to Lux in SF if Kosovo qualify automatically, and play one of North Macedonia or Belarus in playoff D final. Wish our permutations were as handy.





Yeah steepy gits would love Georgia to qualify tho 
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Originally posted by deise316 deise316 wrote:

Originally posted by VanBosch VanBosch wrote:

Looking at the Wiki table am I right in thinking that Wales and the Czechs will go into the B playoff rather than being bumped to A? That would seem fairest?

If that logic is right, Israel would go to B playoff and Hungary to B?

In short, No. The 'as things stand' table is of little use right now, though it will be 100% accurate at the end LOL. The simplest example here is the North. They currently occupy an automatic spot, but probably need 4 points off the Dutch to keep it. This is unlikely. Bosnia are also in very deep trouble and look like they are headed for a B playoff. So to make any kind of realistic prediction, you have to allow for things that are likely to happen. 

Bosnia have to stay in B. NI are near certain to be a B team that doesn't qualify. If the Czechs and Wales were the only other teams not qualifying out of B, that would leave 4 teams in B, out of which a playoff pathway must be formed from those 4. This would take the form of a rankings based draw, so it would be NI away to Bosnia, and Czechs away to Wales, simple as that. 

Where it gets complicated is if more than 4 teams from B don't qualify automatically. Say ourselves and Turkey join the above 4. 

In that case, Bosnia stay in B and are ranked 1. Three more teams from B are drawn out of Cze, Wal, Tur, Ire & NI to form, playoff pathway B. If NI are drawn in B, they have to be 4, they're the lowest ranked.  If we are drawn in B with NI & Bosnia, we have to be 3. If we are drawn in B without NI, we are ranked 4.

The remaining 2 teams in that scenario not drawn in B go to playoff pathway A, possibly with 2 other C teams if all A teams have qualified automatically. Playoff A is where Israel & Hungary would end up in that scenario, both away in SF. 


 




Cheers - I should have said if that was the table after all games were played. But I think you are saying which teams go up to A and which teams stay in B is a draw? I thought it was based on rankings.
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No, if you scroll back a bit and look at the link Flaghunter posted and look at pages 40-42 it becomes a bit clearer. I had that thought initially as well, as did Collum. The draw for the playoff pathway (ie when the teams are down to 4 and drawn into SF's) is rankings based, but the draw for whether a team goes to B or A is not ranking based, and B is drawn first- with the remainder going to A. The B draw looks like Bosnia plus 3 other B teams basically.
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every time I think I have this figured out something else comes up that confuses me. SSN have just reported that as things stand Scotland would play Norway in their playoff semi final - if that's correct my whole understanding of the system is wrong...surely Scotland can't play Norway in their semi based on where they finished in the Nations League? 

Edited by You Tell Me - 09 Sep 2019 at 11:15pm
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Cheers, the below on UEFA is very mid leading then!!

If a UEFA Nations League group winner has already qualified via the European Qualifiers, then their spot will go to the next best-ranked team in their league. If a league does not have four teams to compete, the remaining slots are allocated to teams from another league, according to the overall UEFA Nations League rankings.
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Originally posted by You Tell Me You Tell Me wrote:

every time I think I have this figured out something else comes up that confuses me. SSN have just reported that as things stand Scotland would play Norway in their playoff semi final - if that's correct my whole understanding of the system is wrong...surely Scotland can't play Norway in their semi based on where they finished in the Nations League? 

I wouldn't have thought so either- their most likely opponents are probably Bulgaria (Finland qualifying automatically). 
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Originally posted by deise316 deise316 wrote:

No, if you scroll back a bit and look at the link Flaghunter posted and look at pages 40-42 it becomes a bit clearer. I had that thought initially as well, as did Collum. The draw for the playoff pathway (ie when the teams are down to 4 and drawn into SF's) is rankings based, but the draw for whether a team goes to B or A is not ranking based, and B is drawn first- with the remainder going to A. The B draw looks like Bosnia plus 3 other B teams basically.



Does slide 16 not say it’s based on ranking?

Edit: the UEFA website has a “as it stands” and aligns with you, that a draw decides who goes to a and who to C, in their example.


Edited by VanBosch - 09 Sep 2019 at 11:27pm
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