UEFA Nations League

If 22 qualify, we are the next highest ranked team in playoffs, so we will be at home. If 21 qualify, we are 2nd highest ranked team left, and the draw goes 1 V 4 and 2 V 3, so we would also be at home. 

The other scenario that I can see relates to the previous post, where we could be one of the lowest ranked 'B' teams in playoffs (which we will be if there are more than 4 B teams in playoffs) and don't get drawn out in playoff B- in that scenario, if there were no league 'A' teams left, we could also be drawn at home in playoff pathway 'A', in fact we would be likely to be at home as long as there isn't any more than 7 'B' teams not qualifying automatically- it would be us and one other from 'B' and 2 from 'C' (I think).

Though against that, if even one league 'A' team doesn't qualify, that team will be at home as the highest ranked and we will likely be away. If 2 league 'A' teams and 2 'B' teams above us (ie not the North) don't qualify automatically, I think we are certainly away no matter what in that scenario. 

We could also be drawn at home in the earlier ''drawn in pathway A'' scenario if we are the next ranked 'B' team left after the 'B' playoff is drawn without us in it- ie we would effectively be ranked 2nd of the teams in the 'A' playoff and also play at home. *

* I might actually be completely wrong on each & every bit of that

One thing clear though (yay, at last) as regards playoff SF & Final, the final venue is drawn the same day as the SFs and regardless of results of SF's, the final will be in one of the home Semi-Finalist's grounds a few days after the SF. 

That bit will likely be reasonably chaotic as regards travel plans, but the whole thing will take place between 26-31st March, your SF/Final dates will be one of 26-29, 27-30 or 28-31. 

It will be clearer after these games.  Win tonight and we may start losing interest in the playoffs though.  

I think we will get a playoff if needed however almost certainly an away semi final.  The hosts for the final are drawn at random so 50% chance of a home final if we win a SF.  

We need 15 of the countries ranked ahead of us to qualify directly to be guaranteed a playoff.  Obviously Switzerland and Denmark are two if we don't make it.  We need 19 above us to qualify directly to get a home semi final.  There are other unlikely ways to be at home such as exactly 1 League A team and some League B scenarios in the playoff.  Scenarios change if there are no League B winners in the playoffs but Bosnia look set for the playoffs.

However we probably also need the likes of Croatia, Portugal and Netherlands to qualify directly.  Any of them away in a SF would be really tough. 

Being a host also complicates matters.  UEFA will want to keep hosts apart allowing for sporting integrity.  They need 4 hosts or fewer in the playoffs to avoid a major redraw next April.  

5 hosts would be a total disaster for UEFA although highly unlikely unless Netherlands, us or Denmark, Scotland, Hungary and Romania all end up in the playoffs.  In that case a team who qualify for the finals could be drawn in Bucharest in December and moved to Glasgow in April.  

Scotland will almost certainly be in the League C playoff.  Hungary are looking good to qualify directly at the moment but could also end up in the playoffs along with Romania (unless Kosovo or Armenia qualify directly).  In this scenario we would be kept in the B playoff.  Romania would jump up to A.  The playoff winners would be drawn in the various hosts eg League B winners go to Dublin.  

so lets assume

A Romania   (winners go to Bucharest )

B Rep of Ireland (winners go to Dublin)

C Scotland & Hungary (winners go to Glasgow unless Hungary)

D no host (guaranteed really) (winners go to Budapest unless Hungary win C then winners in Glasgow)

The above scenario means only the playoff teams aren't sure where they will end up if they qualify.  

It would mean those of us who will go to games in Dublin anyway will have to watch the country that beat us in the playoffs if we miss out.  

Crucial games include

Serbia v Portugal  (come on Portugal)

Hungary v Slovakia (away win here too please)

Scotland should be in the playoffs after these games.  We want that.

Czech Republic to win in Kosovo and Montenegro.  

We don't necessarily need that many teams above us to qualify automatically for us to get a home semi final. We were ranked 23rd after the end of the Nations League and 11th in League B. We could end up with a home semi final even if as few as 17 teams above us qualify automatically. Remember, if there are no League B group winners in the playoffs, then it is a totally open draw for the League A and League B playoffs. The League B playoffs would not necessarily be the top four ranked League B sides, as is my understanding of it. So you could end up with the League A playoffs being, for sake or argument, two League A teams and two League B teams who, coincidentally and thanks to the draw, were higher ranked than us, with the League B playoffs including us. In that situation, we would only need to be the 6th best ranked team in the playoffs to get a home semi final.

It'll all be a lot clearer come November, of course.

We cannot be at home to a higher ranked side.  

In your scenarios without any group winner then it would be seeded with 2 A teams separated, then next 2 Bs etc.  So we wouldn't be at home.

Say Iceland, Croatia Austria , Wales, Slovakia ,  Us, NI, 

then seeding would be 2 playoffs

Pot 1 Iceland, Croatia,

Pot   Austria Wales

Pot 3 Slovakia , US

....

Iceland, Croatia Austria and Wales would have the home semis.  

If there is a B group winner then B is filled from B sides and say 1 A side only already in A.  In that scenario a lower ranked B team would jump up along with 2 teams from C to A.  We would be at home then.  However due to hosts and Romania likely to be jumping up we would be excluded from the B draw to see who jumps up.  

Say   Iceland only in A

Bosnia,  Wales, Slovakia, US, NI

one team (not Bosnia) would be drawn to go up to A.  However we would e excluded assuming Romania or Hungary were among the two to come up from C to A.  

My understanding is mainly based on this 89-page document which was originally on the UEFA website.

Am I sure?  Well I may have misinterpreted it and happy to discuss if you think I am wrong. 

My understanding is that the rules vary depending on whether there are group winners in the playoffs.  

I am certain you cannot be at home to a higher ranked opponent in the semi final.  The final is a draw for home advantage done before the semi final.  We could be in Bosnia for a semi final with the winners going to Turkey or Ukraine.  So a total nightmare for travelling fans.  A home draw in the final is vital for qualification hopes and for those trying to plan trips.  

Now if a group winner (say Bosnia as highly likely now) end up in the playoffs they can only face League B opposition (or C coming up).  However the scenario with 2 League A teams and say 6 League B teams (no winners) would leave the A teams in separate playoffs.