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North of Ireland Politics
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B6 6HE View Drop Down
Liam Brady
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Points: 1028 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote B6 6HE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 May 2022 at 12:33am
Originally posted by colemanY2K colemanY2K wrote:

Originally posted by Roberto Baggio Roberto Baggio wrote:

Is the idea not to get the ball rolling on it
Once you have one you are obliged in the GFA to have one every 7 years then 

exactly. while it wouldn't have an arses roars chance of passing in the morning there's every possibility a united ireland could come into existence in the next 20 years. look at the snp... 15 years in power in scotland. won the election convincingly in 2007 and got the ball rolling with independence. they've shifted the dial of those in favour of independence from the low 20s to just shy of 50% (a poll this week has support at 48%).

the big issue for nationalists in scotland is they don't have a referendum guarantee baked into an agreement with westminster. no such issue in ni as you say baggio.

Granted.
Though a heavy defeat in a border poll would have to be damaging to SF
It would also undermine the idea of popular support 

It appears that BREXIT being relatively seamless, considering the hype, has stalled the appetite for unification 
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Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by colemanY2K colemanY2K wrote:

Originally posted by Roberto Baggio Roberto Baggio wrote:

Is the idea not to get the ball rolling on it
Once you have one you are obliged in the GFA to have one every 7 years then 

exactly. while it wouldn't have an arses roars chance of passing in the morning there's every possibility a united ireland could come into existence in the next 20 years. look at the snp... 15 years in power in scotland. won the election convincingly in 2007 and got the ball rolling with independence. they've shifted the dial of those in favour of independence from the low 20s to just shy of 50% (a poll this week has support at 48%).

the big issue for nationalists in scotland is they don't have a referendum guarantee baked into an agreement with westminster. no such issue in ni as you say baggio.

Granted.
Though a heavy defeat in a border poll would have to be damaging to SF
It would also undermine the idea of popular support 

It appears that BREXIT being relatively seamless, considering the hype, has stalled the appetite for unification 



relatively seamless perhaps for ni but not for britain. it's early days however exports from britain have taken a double digit hammering since their exit and bear in mind when it comes to imports westminster hasn't implemented large chunks of the deal with the eu - crucially customs and phytosanitary checks losing billions of pounds in taxes and risking a food safety crisis.

should britain enter a recession as predicted by the bank of england on thursday then expect a spillover to ni. a few years of economic hardship could very well focus minds on unification, especially among moderate and economic unionists. 


Edited by colemanY2K - 07 May 2022 at 9:00am
"One of the dominant facts in English life during the past three quarters of a century has been the decay of ability in the ruling class." Orwell, 1942.
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Liam Brady
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Points: 1544 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dalymount79 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 May 2022 at 9:07am
Much commentary on how pivotal/ seismic this election is which I agree with. SF getting most seats, the alliance and the 3 unionist parties.

Interesting data is % of unionist population under 40 turned out of that % voted alliance.

UUP look like a busted flush given their performance.
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Points: 39881 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Trap junior Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 May 2022 at 11:46am
What will happen is the UUP, TUV  and DUP will amalgamate.  One voice for unionism.
Pied Piper to: Baldrick, Brendan 88, 9Fingers, Borussia and more...

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Liam Brady
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BBC pundit last night reckon the solution will be first minister changing to shared or joint minister.
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Originally posted by Trap junior Trap junior wrote:

What will happen is the UUP, TUV  and DUP will amalgamate.  One voice for unionism.

Can’t see it
UUP and TUV are at different ends of the political spectrum 
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Roy Keane
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Points: 10022 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BrendanD88 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 May 2022 at 12:42pm
Originally posted by Trap junior Trap junior wrote:

What will happen is the UUP, TUV  and DUP will amalgamate.  One voice for unionism.

Lol bless.
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Liam Brady
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Originally posted by Jackal Jackal wrote:

BBC pundit last night reckon the solution will be first minister changing to shared or joint minister.

They insisted on the word deputy when it was a nationalist 

Their turn now
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Liam Brady
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Points: 2914 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lenny82 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 May 2022 at 4:40pm
DUP closing the gap!
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Roy Keane
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Points: 10022 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BrendanD88 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 May 2022 at 4:48pm
Originally posted by Lenny82 Lenny82 wrote:

DUP closing the gap!

Ye wha?
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Points: 8369 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote zizu Kilbane Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 May 2022 at 8:22pm
'All changed, changed utterly......'
"Sometimes, sh*t happens, someone's gotta deal with it, and who ya gonna call?"
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Who’s likely to win the two remaining seats that are still to be decided 
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Originally posted by Roberto Baggio Roberto Baggio wrote:

Who’s likely to win the two remaining seats that are still to be decided 
One SDLP. The other is between DUP and UUP.
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Liam Brady
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From an outside perspective, I thought the result of the assembly elections was a good step forward for all Ireland Thumbs Up

Mary Lou MacDonald's message to Nicola Sturgeon showed a touch of class Clap
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Points: 25114 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote irishmufc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2022 at 8:21am
edit

Edited by irishmufc - 09 May 2022 at 12:58pm
Wings? They're only the band The Beatles could have been.
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Points: 37373 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Roberto Baggio Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2022 at 12:06pm
Noticeable change at the count centres from the Shinners. 
Didn't see a tricolour, elected MLA's being hoisted onto shoulders or any singing

Mary Lou cracking the whip after the criticsim in the south at the last election
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edit

Edited by irishmufc - 09 May 2022 at 12:58pm
Wings? They're only the band The Beatles could have been.
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Points: 2711 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Green Cockade Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2022 at 1:29pm
SF campaign was exemplary. Vote management on the ground was meticulous, choice of candidates likewise, they stood back and let unionism splinter without intrusion and showed iron discipline throughout. Messaging was positive and consistent enough to attract transfers and there was a notable absence of triumphalism despite the unprecedented result. They can now sit back and let the DUP take the flak between now and November. Another election then would almost certainly see them increase their majority. In the meantime the rise of the party continues in the south and Mary Lou looks a good bet for next Taoiseach.
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