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Jack Charlton
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Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:

Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:

Fact is, if it's hard to turn around a home deficit against a decent team once, it must be twice as hard to do it twice.

Once something has been done the first time, that has little or no impact on the ability to do the same thing a second time.

The probability of doing it a second time having done it a first time is basically the same as doing it once.
Sorry, but it's not like eg tossing a coin, whereby if it comes up heads first time, it has every bit as much chance (50/50) of being heads next time.

Think of it this way. It is extremely rare for a team to overturn a home deficit in the knockout stages of the CL because it is invariably very difficult.

So that if it was very difficult in Paris, it will be at least as difficult in the Nou Camp. (Actually it will be a whole lot harder, for many reasons).

Or put it another way. If you think that Man U will have learned how to win in Barcelona from their victory in Paris, how come they didn't learn from their home defeat to PSG for their home game against Barca?

Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:

Of course, it is harder against Barcelona with Messi than PSG without Neymar, but the deficit is smaller, so maybe it balances out.
The smaller deficit will help, certainly.

But it is 6 years since Barca last lost a CL game at home (to Bayern, that year's winners).

Since then they have played 30 times, winning 27 and drawing three.


Edited by Territorial - 11 Apr 2019 at 3:17pm
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Jesus, Terry, I was just making the point that doing it the first time has no bearing on how hard or otherwise it will be the second time. It isn't twice as hard to do it the second time as it was the first, certainly not as a causative link.

The implication of your post seemed to be that it would be twice as hard for United to beat Barca as it would have been if they hadn't just beaten PSG the same way - that was the logic of the post. That is, that somehow United's task in the second leg against Barca would be easier if United had beaten PSG 3-0 in both legs of the last sixteen.

That's literally all I was calling you out on.
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Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:

Jesus, Terry, I was just making the point that doing it the first time has no bearing on how hard or otherwise it will be the second time. It isn't twice as hard to do it the second time as it was the first, certainly not as a causative link.

The implication of your post seemed to be that it would be twice as hard for United to beat Barca as it would have been if they hadn't just beaten PSG the same way - that was the logic of the post. That is, that somehow United's task in the second leg against Barca would be easier if United had beaten PSG 3-0 in both legs of the last sixteen.

That's literally all I was calling you out on.
I didn't say beating Barca away will be twice as hard as beating PSG away.

What I'm saying is that first beating PSG then beating Barca will be twice as hard as beating either of them individually.

And even if they've done the first part, that doesn't make the second part any less hard.

Therefore two against-the-odds results have got to be twice as hard to achieve as one (esp in successive games).




Edited by Territorial - 11 Apr 2019 at 3:51pm
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Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:

Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:

Jesus, Terry, I was just making the point that doing it the first time has no bearing on how hard or otherwise it will be the second time. It isn't twice as hard to do it the second time as it was the first, certainly not as a causative link.

The implication of your post seemed to be that it would be twice as hard for United to beat Barca as it would have been if they hadn't just beaten PSG the same way - that was the logic of the post. That is, that somehow United's task in the second leg against Barca would be easier if United had beaten PSG 3-0 in both legs of the last sixteen.

That's literally all I was calling you out on.
I didn't say beating Barca away will be twice as hard as beating PSG away.

What I'm saying is that first beating PSG then beating Barca will be twice as hard as beating either of them individually.

And even if they've done the first part, that doesn't make the second part any less hard.

Therefore two against-the-odds results have got to be twice as hard to achieve as one (esp in successive games).




The probability of United beating Barcelona is not dependent on how United beat PSG. That is all. That was a logical corollary of what you said and it is patently nonsense. It's not about making the second part easier or harder. The fact that United beat PSG the way they did has close to no bearing on their chances of doing the same against Barcelona.

The odds of rolling two sixes is slim (1/36). However, the odds of rolling a six the second time, having rolled a six the first time, is still 1/6. They are mutually independent variables. Now, these are not *completely* mutually independent variables, but they are damn close to it.

This is probability 101.
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Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:

Originally posted by Bob Hoskins Bob Hoskins wrote:

Originally posted by Trap junior Trap junior wrote:

Managing like he was the new Fergie , then signs on the dotted line and turns into David Moyes.

LOL In fairness that's exactly the way it has gone so far. I still think Jolly will do a good job there,
I think he could do a good job, at least compared with his predecessors, and given time. 

But is the former enough for MU, and will he get the latter?

Originally posted by Bob Hoskins Bob Hoskins wrote:

... some of his interviews and comments suggest a manager that knows what type of players his team needs.

The signings/selling will be key 
True, but how much influence will he have over signings?

And even if he is given his say, will he be able to sign top players, or even keep his best ones, if MU don't make the CL next season?

Getting into the Top 4 next season would you'd think be the basic requirement. He had a free shot at it this season when it was a distant hope when he took over. 
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Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:

Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:

Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:

Jesus, Terry, I was just making the point that doing it the first time has no bearing on how hard or otherwise it will be the second time. It isn't twice as hard to do it the second time as it was the first, certainly not as a causative link.

The implication of your post seemed to be that it would be twice as hard for United to beat Barca as it would have been if they hadn't just beaten PSG the same way - that was the logic of the post. That is, that somehow United's task in the second leg against Barca would be easier if United had beaten PSG 3-0 in both legs of the last sixteen.

That's literally all I was calling you out on.
I didn't say beating Barca away will be twice as hard as beating PSG away.

What I'm saying is that first beating PSG then beating Barca will be twice as hard as beating either of them individually.

And even if they've done the first part, that doesn't make the second part any less hard.

Therefore two against-the-odds results have got to be twice as hard to achieve as one (esp in successive games).




The probability of United beating Barcelona is not dependent on how United beat PSG. That is all. That was a logical corollary of what you said and it is patently nonsense. It's not about making the second part easier or harder. The fact that United beat PSG the way they did has close to no bearing on their chances of doing the same against Barcelona.

The odds of rolling two sixes is slim (1/36). However, the odds of rolling a six the second time, having rolled a six the first time, is still 1/6. They are mutually independent variables. Now, these are not *completely* mutually independent variables, but they are damn close to it.

This is probability 101.
LOL
Will you be lecturing from a standardised text or using the more Socratic method of interactive class participation?
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In fairness, I may be misrepresenting slightly what Terry said. He said:

"Fact is, if it's hard to turn around a home deficit against a decent team once, it must be twice as hard to do it twice."

Whereas how I read it was more:

"Fact is, if it's hard to turn around a home deficit against a decent team once, it must be twice as hard to do it a second time."

Still, they are almost totally independent variables. And the point doesn't really make sense, where the probability of the second issue only arises if you've done it the first time.
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Two home CL games now without a goal and barely laying a glove on the opponent doesnt augur well for OGS tenure....but ar an lamh eile beating City and qualifiying for next seasons CL will help him but with the cruel irony that it would almost ensure the league title goes to Anfield. 
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Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:

Originally posted by AonSceal19 AonSceal19 wrote:

To quote the late Brian Clough- "I hope anybody’s not stupid enough to write us off" Barcelona got the win but were they unbelievable? No! If we get the 1st goal it’s game on like the PSG game! Our away form has been miles better anyway.
I see Pogba's banging on about "the Miracle in Paris", too:

Fact is, if it's hard to turn around a home deficit against a decent team once, it must be twice as hard to do it twice.

And speaking of "decent", a PSG missing Neymar are hardly the same as a Barca including Messi, are they?

Originally posted by AonSceal19 AonSceal19 wrote:

A quick side note on top 4. Chelsea are a joke under Sarri. Two wins against Brighton and West Ham at home doesn’t change my mind on that. Arsenal can’t win a game to save their lives away from home and they still have to play Watford, Wolves, Leicester and Burnley. 5 wins will definitely get top 4 for Manchester United. Maybe even 4 and a draw.
"Five wins"?

The last two games vs Hudds and Cardiff are pretty much a given - unless Cardiff turn up at OT needing a point or three to avoid relegation.

Meanwhile, Away to Everton is not looking so easy as it was a few weeks ago; Home to City is always hard to predict and Home to Chelsea all depends on which Chelsea turns up. (Or should I say "which Hazard"?)

MU could play very well in all five and still only pick up 8 or 9 points, which probably wouldn't be enough for top four.


Let’s be clear here, Barcelona are obviously strong favourites but Manchester United are by no means out of the tie. First off PSG beat Manchester United by 2 goals and Barcelona have only won by one goal. If the PSG comeback was equated to climbing a mountain then the task of beating Barcelona in the Nou Camp is like climbing a very steep hill where you might do injury if you fall but you won’t die like one would if one fell from a mountain. PSG completely outplayed Manchester United in the 1st leg and won by 2 goals. Barcelona didn’t completely dominate Manchester United and they only won by one goal so the task isn’t mission impossible even if Barcelona have a more stronger team than PSG on paper. A 1-2 score line will be enough to through in Barcelona. That wouldn’t have been enough in Paris.

On the top 4 battle, Manchester United should be beating West Ham at home this Saturday. As you said in your post Huddersfield away and Cardiff home should be an easy 6 points. So that’s 9 points Manchester United should get. In my opinion 6 points from Everton away, Manchester City home and Chelsea home will be enough for top 4. 
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ironically once Terri has posted one post talking sh*te the probability of him posting another post talking sh*te increases :)
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Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:

Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:

Fact is, if it's hard to turn around a home deficit against a decent team once, it must be twice as hard to do it twice.

Once something has been done the first time, that has little or no impact on the ability to do the same thing a second time.

The probability of doing it a second time having done it a first time is basically the same as doing it once.

Admittedly, the probability of doing it twice in succession, before you've done it the first time, is much smaller, but probabilistically, the probability of doing it a second time having done it a first time bears little or no relation to the outcome of the first time, assuming it is an equally difficult task.

Put it like this: the odds of me hitting the crossbar in crossbar challenge are almost exactly the same the second time as they are the first time, whether I hit the crossbar with my first effort or miss. If anything, it is more likely the second time, given that I've done it before.

Of course, it is harder against Barcelona with Messi than PSG without Neymar, but the deficit is smaller, so maybe it balances out.

I'm in awe of the use of probabilistically there . Superb LOL

I'll be stealing that
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Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:

In fairness, I may be misrepresenting slightly what Terry said. He said:

"Fact is, if it's hard to turn around a home deficit against a decent team once, it must be twice as hard to do it twice."
Thank you.

Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:

Whereas how I read it was more:

"Fact is, if it's hard to turn around a home deficit against a decent team once, it must be twice as hard to do it a second time."

Still, they are almost totally independent variables. And the point doesn't really make sense, where the probability of the second issue only arises if you've done it the first time.
Ah jaysus, and you were doing so well... LOL

Anyhow, it's not like throwing a six. It's more like trying to throw a six when the other fella won't even let you have the dice!

Whereas I prefer to compare it to climbing Everest, then when you get back down to the bottom, being asked to turn round and climb it again:
"Sure you've just survived it once, so it'll be no hardship to do it again..." Wink
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Originally posted by Hans Moleman Hans Moleman wrote:

Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:

Admittedly, the probability of doing it twice in succession, before you've done it the first time, is much smaller, but probabilistically, the probability of doing it a second time having done it a first time bears little or no relation to the outcome of the first time, assuming it is an equally difficult task.

I'm in awe of the use of probabilistically there . Superb LOL

I'll be stealing that
I noticed that too, but thought it was a typo.

In fact, I still do.

Probably.
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I've checked it. Tis like countdown. Probabilistically. Scores 17 Clap
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United got away with it today like they did against Watford a couple of weeks back. United deserved to win neither game. 

It'll be interesting to see who Solskjaer gets rid off in the summer. 
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Originally posted by irishmufc irishmufc wrote:

United got away with it today like they did against Watford a couple of weeks back. United deserved to win neither game. 

It'll be interesting to see who Solskjaer gets rid off in the summer. 





He should get rid of himself first
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