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Nvidic's overpriced bets
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Bob Hoskins View Drop Down
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Points: 20175 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bob Hoskins Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Oct 2011 at 3:31pm
I'm gonna back Ireland to draw our next three games, the draw with Armenia is 5/2 and I'm guessing that it will say be 9/4 for the other games in the play offs, this works out at 36/1

Now if we can just jam our way in via the away goals ruleApprove
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We are better than Armenia.
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Originally posted by PhilliyK PhilliyK wrote:

Lithunia are 5/1 at home to the Czech's.
 
Looking at their results for the past 2 years they are hit or miss as they beat the Czech's in Olomouc but lost to Leichenstein 2-0 in June this year then beat Armenia 3-0 in an august friendly. The czech's have the added pressure of having to win the game and could be caught on the counter attack as I think Lithunia have some pretty quick forwards so they could be a bit of value if anyone wants to risk them

Wouldn't touch it. Lithuania have nothing to play for, other than pride. 

The Czech Republic are playing for a place in the playoffs as it's most unlikely that Scotland will win in Spain.
Also, a draw might likely be enough (should word come through that Scotland are losing) as Czech hold a greater head to head with Scotland.
Scotland might grab a famous draw and leave the Czechs needing a win.

It all amounts to far too many other variables for me to touch this bet.
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Originally posted by The Boy Z The Boy Z wrote:

We are better than Armenia.
 
 
Player for player, yes. But Armenia are a very good football team, and it won't be long until they do qualify. They are more ruthless than we are/were in the latter parts of this camaign in my opinion. Last night would have been a lot different if the ref hadn't f**ked up. But that's neither here nor there.
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Ireland 100/1 to win the euros
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Some interesting bets up at the min, ireland to draw estonia and qualify at 4's, turkey at 7s
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Ireland to draw Estonia is 1 in four anyways ffs! What a sh*t price!
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Only had quick look at the coupons but napoli 3's and draw no bet 2's seema overpriced tonight, home against bayern
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Originally posted by nvidic nvidic wrote:

Only had quick look at the coupons but napoli 3's and draw no bet 2's seema overpriced tonight, home against bayern
Napoli are home to Bayern and are 3/1?that cant be right
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Points: 18997 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nvidic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Oct 2011 at 5:33am
Thats paddys price! Took the draw no bet myself
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16/5 fuk me thats a monster price
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I got them at 11/5 to pp and took urd game with over 2.5 goals..
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Originally posted by MayoMark MayoMark wrote:

Ireland to draw Estonia is 1 in four anyways ffs! What a sh*t price!


LOL

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Originally posted by BigStrongMan BigStrongMan wrote:

Originally posted by nvidic nvidic wrote:

Only had quick look at the coupons but napoli 3's and draw no bet 2's seema overpriced tonight, home against bayern
Napoli are home to Bayern and are 3/1?that cant be right
Bayern conceded only one goal in all competitions this year BSM and that was in their first league game, whereas Napoli started alright in Serie A but have been hit or miss the last few games and havent yet got near the form of the last 6 months of last season
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Points: 663 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote shoggy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Oct 2011 at 7:15am
Originally posted by PhilliyK PhilliyK wrote:

Originally posted by BigStrongMan BigStrongMan wrote:

Originally posted by nvidic nvidic wrote:

Only had quick look at the coupons but napoli 3's and draw no bet 2's seema overpriced tonight, home against bayern
Napoli are home to Bayern and are 3/1?that cant be right
Bayern conceded only one goal in all competitions this year BSM and that was in their first league game, whereas Napoli started alright in Serie A but have been hit or miss the last few games and havent yet got near the form of the last 6 months of last season

Yeah right enough only hope is that Napoli at home can hold them for a draw, Bayern are rampant at the minute.
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anyside getting 3/1 at home with Cavani in the team is monster IMO
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looks like my kean eye is a bit off, although it was only off the coupon, the way paddy have it done is

Chance of bayern winning 47.6%
Chance of draw 29.4%
Chance of napoli winning 23.8%

which is an amazing book because the over-round is only .8% (traditionally it is closer to 10%, the over-round is the amount over 100% that is gotten from turning the odds back into percentages, it is essentially the bookies profit and the lower it is the better)

By comparison ladbrokes have have a 6% over-round and have their chances at;

bayern- 54.5
draw- 28.5
napoli 23

so paddy power have a 7% difference on bayern and thus offer a better price so they actually have bayern under priced compared to other bookies.... still fancy napoli @2's draw no bet though!



Edited by nvidic - 18 Oct 2011 at 11:13am
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Points: 8143 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote The Boy Z Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Oct 2011 at 11:12am
Newcastle Reserves @ Evens home to Liverpool Reserves tonight.
Theres only one sport that matters..
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