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2022 World Cup - Permutations - see page 17

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rolo View Drop Down
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    Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:22am
The draw for the UEFA qualifying campaign for the 2022 World Cup is to be held on 29th November (subject to confirmation).

Ten groups. Some with six teams, some with five. 

Group winners qualify. Runners up go into the playoffs with the two best Nations League group winners who finish outside the top 2 in their group.

As it's a World Cup, seedings for the draw are based on the November 2020 FIFA rankings.

So, for Ireland to be second seeds, we would need to be at least the 20th highest ranked European team when the Nations League has finished.

And, as per every single campaign with Ireland, we are going to have a nervous run-in to when the seedings are finalised.

In the current FIFA rankings, we are the 20th highest European team, right above the trap door, and with plenty of teams very close below us.



Currently the seedings for the draw are:

1 Belgium (1st in FIFA rankings)
2 France (2nd)
3 England (4th)
4 Croatia (6th)
5 Portugal (7th)
6 Spain (8th)
7 Switzerland (12th)
8 Italy (13th)
9 Netherlands (14th)
10 Germany (15th)
-----------------------
11 Denmark (16th)
12 Sweden (=17th)
13 Poland (19th)
14 Wales (23rd)
15 Ukraine (24th)
16 Austria (26th)
17 Turkey (=29th)
18 Serbia (=29th)
19 Slovakia (32nd)
20 Rep of Ireland (34th)
------------------------
21 Northern Ireland (36th)
22 Romania (37th)
23 Russia (38th)
24 Iceland (39th)



Duffy's equaliser tonight was massive. Tonight's draw and a win against Finland would have us staying in 20th (just) in the September rankings, with Russia closing the gap and moving up to 21st seed, and with only a small number of ranking points between us. 

For those of us who think it matters whether we are 2nd or 3rd seeds, it'll be tense times ahead in these Nations League games. Plenty of permutations to come as we get more results over the remaining games involving ourselves and the teams around us. But thats the state of play for now.  



Edited by rolo - 04 Sep 2020 at 2:23pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Lenny82 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:36am
Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

The draw for the UEFA qualifying campaign for the 2022 World Cup is to be held on 29th November (subject to confirmation).

Ten groups. Some with six teams, some with five. 

Group winners qualify. Runners up go into the playoffs with the two best Nations League group winners who finish outside the top 2 in their group.

As it's a World Cup, seedings for the draw are based on the November 2020 FIFA rankings.

So, for Ireland to be second seeds, we would need to be at least the 20th highest ranked European team when the Nations League has finished.

And, as per every single campaign with Ireland, we are going to have a nervous run-in to when the seedings are finalised.

In the current FIFA rankings, we are the 20th highest European team, right above the trap door, and with plenty of teams very close below us.



Currently the seedings for the draw are:

1 Belgium (1st in FIFA rankings)
2 France (2nd)
3 England (4th)
4 Croatia (6th)
5 Portugal (7th)
6 Spain (8th)
7 Switzerland (12th)
8 Italy (13th)
9 Netherlands (14th)
10 Germany (15th)
-----------------------
11 Denmark (16th)
12 Sweden (=17th)
13 Poland (19th)
14 Wales (23rd)
15 Ukraine (24th)
16 Austria (26th)
17 Turkey (=29th)
18 Serbia (=29th)
19 Slovakia (32nd)
20 Rep of Ireland (34th)
------------------------
21 Northern Ireland (36th)
22 Romania (37th)
23 Russia (38th)
24 Iceland (39th)



Duffy's equaliser tonight was massive. Tonight's draw and a win against Finland would have us staying in 20th (just) in the September rankings, with Russia closing the gap and moving up to 21st seed, and with only a small number of ranking points between us. 

For those of us who think it matters whether we are 2nd or 3rd seeds, it'll be tense times ahead in these Nations League games. Plenty of permutations to come as we get more results over the remaining games involving ourselves and the teams around us. But thats the state of play for now.  


Nice one. Every game is important, even if some try to belittle it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jimmy Raggatip Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:51am
good work, although I don't fear any of those 2nd pot sides should we have to face them
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:53am
It's very tight between Serbia, Turkey, Slovakia and ourselves.

Serbia and Turkey both lost tonight, which is good. And they play each other on Sunday. I was thinking a draw might be the best result there to affect both of them, but a win for either is probably better, they are currently on the exact same points, and two defeats in this window is more damaging. A Serbia win, say, with Turkey then having to play Russia and Serbia again in the reverse fixtures... that would be good for us.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 1:01am
Originally posted by Jimmy Raggatip Jimmy Raggatip wrote:

good work, although I don't fear any of those 2nd pot sides should we have to face them

People always say this! Couldn't disagree more!

Just look at the last campaign, we got Denmark as 2nd seeds - who you say you don't fear - and we finished third and didnt qualify automatically.

Also, Ukraine beat Switzerland tonight, and have been in brilliant form in qualifying for the Euros. Plenty of other teams in that pot who I could mention too. 

Further, none of them will fear us LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Healy52003 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 2:23am
Were going to get Wales, Denmark and Georgia in our group
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ConorMac77 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:21am
Originally posted by Healy52003 Healy52003 wrote:

Were going to get Wales, Denmark and Georgia in our group
Not if we get that 2nd seeding, all the more reason to take this NL group seriously.

Still won't stop us getting Georgia again though. LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Denis Irwin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:30am
No "easier" top seeds either. 
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Bill O'Herlihy: Ah ye can't be saying that now Eamonn
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote davereilly Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 9:53am
It's really weird thinking as it stands we can't draw Denmark or Wales. Playing them seems like a rule at this stage.

I guess this means we'll qualify for a playoff, and guess who we draw there....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote J0E_90 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 10:59am
Hey guys, as Rolo says, the equaliser last night was huge for us rankings-wise. We would have remained in 20th but essentially equal to the three below us and with a game more played.

Russia now up to 21st although we are closer to Turkey (19th) and Serbia in (18th) than the Russians are to us.

A win either way tonight in the Romania (23rd) match v the North (22nd) would also crank up the pressure a good bit with the winner overtaking Russia. A draw would be the perfect result for us as it would result in no points change for either team.

An away win for the Czechs (26th) tonight v Slovakia (17th) would also be huge as it would see us and Serbia leapfrog them.


Edited by J0E_90 - 04 Sep 2020 at 2:57pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote flaghunter Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 11:53am
My type of thread Smile

Rolo, have you found an online calculator (or made your own), to predict how many ranking points each result would give ourselves or our rivals after each upcoming game?

Will make my own on excel if not.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JohnSwift Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:20pm
A great thread on an important matter to be aware of as the Nations League fixtures progress over the next two months.

Fair play to Rolo for summarising everything so clearly.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:27pm
Originally posted by flaghunter flaghunter wrote:

My type of thread Smile

Rolo, have you found an online calculator (or made your own), to predict how many ranking points each result would give ourselves or our rivals after each upcoming game?

Will make my own on excel if not.


Haven't found a calculator yet but FIFA are using a new system since August 2018 which is much fairer; it isn't based on averaging results over the past number of years anymore, but simply adds and subtracts points from the total based on the result of a game. 

It's quite straightforward now and the algorithm is explained here:

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Denis Irwin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:29pm
Rolo any chance of throwing up how the rest of the seedings stand at the moment. Just to get an idea of the type of group we could end up with (Best and Worst case etc..) 

Edited by Denis Irwin - 04 Sep 2020 at 12:35pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote davereilly Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:31pm
Also worth remembering that only the results from the last 36 months are taken into account. Current rankings are from July, so between now and November the points from these games are removed:
Away draw vs. Georgia
Home win vs. Moldova
Away win vs. Wales
Away draw vs. Denmark
Home loss vs. Denmark 

That away win vs. Wales was worth quite a few points, we need to knock up a few wins just to get those back
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote J0E_90 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:36pm
Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Also worth remembering that only the results from the last 36 months are taken into account. Current rankings are from July, so between now and November the points from these games are removed:
Away draw vs. Georgia
Home win vs. Moldova
Away win vs. Wales
Away draw vs. Denmark
Home loss vs. Denmark 

That away win vs. Wales was worth quite a few points, we need to knock up a few wins just to get those back

Is this definitely still the case since the new format came in in 2018?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:38pm
Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Also worth remembering that only the results from the last 36 months are taken into account. Current rankings are from July, so between now and November the points from these games are removed:
Away draw vs. Georgia
Home win vs. Moldova
Away win vs. Wales
Away draw vs. Denmark
Home loss vs. Denmark 

That away win vs. Wales was worth quite a few points, we need to knock up a few wins just to get those back

Not the case anymore, see my post above.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Sep 2020 at 12:40pm
Originally posted by Denis Irwin Denis Irwin wrote:

Rolo any chance of throwing up how the rest of the seedings stand at the moment. Just to get an idea of the type of group we could end up with (Best and Worst case etc..) 


Yeah ok. I'll have to go through the list AngryLOL


Edited by rolo - 04 Sep 2020 at 12:40pm
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