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Westminster election in the north

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote zizu Kilbane Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Apr 2010 at 3:44pm
Originally posted by The Scientist The Scientist wrote:

Anyone who votes for drug dealing, rape ur child scum like sinn scum then should be shot with balls of their own sh*t!

 

Real nationalists will vote SDLP



What about the real republicans? Who do they vote for?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Denis Irwin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Apr 2010 at 3:46pm
Originally posted by Saint Tom Saint Tom wrote:

by no means is it a foregone conclusion at this point as to who will be the biggest uk party. nick clegg performed very very strongly in the pm debates, would be hilarious if the unionists in the north and snp were part of the same coalition, the irony!

 
 
 
Would have thought the Unionists would only back a Tory Govt and wouldn't have thought the SNP would back a Tory Govt unless they get some sort of deal in regards to the   Tories not blocking a refernedum on Scottish indpendence. (Regardless of whether it would be passed or not)


Edited by Denis Irwin - 18 Apr 2010 at 3:47pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote criostoir Óg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Apr 2010 at 4:55pm
A hung parliament will show unionists up for what they are politically, more anti-irish than pro-british, vowing to do what's best for the north rather than the uk as a whole...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Trap junior Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2010 at 4:07am
Originally posted by Críostóir Óg Críostóir Óg wrote:

A hung parliament will show unionists up for what they are politically, more anti-irish than pro-british, vowing to do what's best for the north rather than the uk as a whole...
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Saint Tom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2010 at 3:14pm
Originally posted by Denis Irwin Denis Irwin wrote:

Originally posted by Saint Tom Saint Tom wrote:

by no means is it a foregone conclusion at this point as to who will be the biggest uk party. nick clegg performed very very strongly in the pm debates, would be hilarious if the unionists in the north and snp were part of the same coalition, the irony!

 
 
 
Would have thought the Unionists would only back a Tory Govt and wouldn't have thought the SNP would back a Tory Govt unless they get some sort of deal in regards to the   Tories not blocking a refernedum on Scottish indpendence. (Regardless of whether it would be passed or not)
that would be a prerquisite i would have thought
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newryrep Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Apr 2010 at 3:31pm
Originally posted by Críostóir Óg Críostóir Óg wrote:

A hung parliament will show unionists up for what they are politically, more anti-irish than pro-british, vowing to do what's best for the north rather than the uk as a whole...
 
Loyal to the half crownSmile, I see the DUP manifesto looking for a change in corporation Tax for the North . like thats going to happen anytime soon. I take great delight in telling English visitors about the free perscriptions in the north that are paying for much to their shock as they are forking out £7 across the water
 
I will revise my FST SF hold prediction, looking at the numbers the SDLP would have to transfer in massive numbers for them to hold , its not going to happen.
 
UK genuinely not sure what will happen, any coalition with the Lib Dem and they will demand electroral reform. Not sure how reform would affect the nationalist parties .Nationalists in Scotland and Wales may also be kingmakers. Wording of any referendum is crucial if they get to write the question it could be very interesting times ahead
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote criostoir Óg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Apr 2010 at 5:17am
Originally posted by Newryrep Newryrep wrote:

Originally posted by Críostóir Óg Críostóir Óg wrote:

A hung parliament will show unionists up for what they are politically, more anti-irish than pro-british, vowing to do what's best for the north rather than the uk as a whole...
 
Loyal to the half crownSmile, I see the DUP manifesto looking for a change in corporation Tax for the North . like thats going to happen anytime soon. I take great delight in telling English visitors about the free perscriptions in the north that are paying for much to their shock as they are forking out £7 across the water
 
I will revise my FST SF hold prediction, looking at the numbers the SDLP would have to transfer in massive numbers for them to hold , its not going to happen.
 
UK genuinely not sure what will happen, any coalition with the Lib Dem and they will demand electroral reform. Not sure how reform would affect the nationalist parties .Nationalists in Scotland and Wales may also be kingmakers. Wording of any referendum is crucial if they get to write the question it could be very interesting times ahead


If it was to be the case tht the only possible Govt was a Lib-Con one, electoral reform would be the Liberal's absolute precondition, and to be responsible for running any necessary committees, reports etc, but the Tories will not have it, because they will suffer the most. It could end up being a test of Nick Clegg's resolve...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote criostoir Óg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Apr 2010 at 5:54am
Just reading through the DUP manifesto here, they always manage to make me laugh:

Armed Forces

Summary: Most up-to-date equipment for our armed forces - Upgrade living quarters - Dedicated hospital facility for British soldiers and veterans - Remembrance Day and Pride in Britain Day as public holidays

Who is this aimed at? They don't have any candidates or voters living in Britain, the geography of unionists is dreadful...

Culture

Summary: Assist Loyal Orders, bands and Ulster-Scots – new start for parades – bands strategy – developing Britishness – feasibility study into NI National Library

I think the DUP's definition of this is banging a large drum once a year just to remind people that they're as British as the people in Finchley, who incidentally don't do this...

working for equality between Irish and Ulster-Scots culture.

I notice that they've given up slightly on the Ulster-Scots language approach, I think due to the minor detail that it isn't a fekin language. http://www.ulsterscotsagency.com/ This is the website of the agency responsible for the 'language', you'll notice that there isn't actually the function to view the website in Ulster Scots...

Westminster Reform
The reputation of Parliament has been damaged recently.To those of us who value the Union, our Parliament is of immense significance, and the DUP is determined to rebuild confidence in Parliament and politics

Would the DUP like reminding who the chief Husband and Wife offenders were? Or how much they spent on a pen, a desk and a briefcase? Let's not mention Iris in all of this, she's still very temperamental...whilst seen shopping in London...


Edited by Críostóir Óg - 20 Apr 2010 at 5:55am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote zoolander Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Apr 2010 at 9:14am
Maskey is pulling out of the South Belfast vote to give SDLP a free run.

Edited by zoolander - 20 Apr 2010 at 9:17am
It's a walk-off!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RogerMilla Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Apr 2010 at 9:21am
Originally posted by Newryrep Newryrep wrote:

[ Not sure how reform would affect the nationalist parties .
 
 
newry arent most of the elections up north already proportional representation ? isnt it only westminster that is first past the post ?
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AntrimMan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Apr 2010 at 9:22am
Think he means the likes of the SNP and Plaid Cymru.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Roberto Baggio Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Apr 2010 at 9:27am
Originally posted by The Scientist The Scientist wrote:

Anyone who votes for drug dealing, rape ur child scum like sinn scum then should be shot with balls of their own sh*t!

 

Real nationalists will vote SDLP

 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RogerMilla Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Apr 2010 at 9:54am
Originally posted by AntrimMan AntrimMan wrote:

Think he means the likes of the SNP and Plaid Cymru.
 
ah ok , i presume they would do well/bettter under proportional representation ?
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AntrimMan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Apr 2010 at 9:59am
Honestly have no idea Rog, I have a fairly basic knowledge of the whole thing.
 
PR works well enough it seems in local elections where 6 MLA;s or whatever are selected from each constituancy. In the westminster elections where 1 MP is selected for a constituancy I don't know how PR would work if ya know what I mean - Surely its just person with most votes gets it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote criostoir Óg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Apr 2010 at 10:01am
Originally posted by zoolander zoolander wrote:

Maskey is pulling out of the South Belfast vote to give SDLP a free run.

It's entirely possible that Sinn Féin would have finished 5th in that election anyway behind Alliance, it's a token gesture at best because Ritchie is still finding her feet and is not going to back down over Fermanagh & South Tyrone. If SDLP wanted to make any sort of gesture they could pull out of North Belfast, which although a traditional Unionist stronghold, is actually one of the most evenly divided seats, and thus winnable for nationalism. Here's the 2005 result:
General Election 2005: Belfast North
Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Democratic Unionist Nigel Dodds 13,935 45.6 +4.8

Sinn Féin Gerry Kelly 8,747 28.6 +3.4

SDLP Alban Maginness 4,950 16.2 -4.8

Ulster Unionist Fred Cobain 2,154 7.1 -4.9

Alliance Marjorie Hawkins 438 1.4 +1.4

Workers' Party Marcella Delaney 165 0.5 -0.1

Rainbow Dream Ticket Lynda Gilby 151 0.5 +0.2
Majority 5,188 17.0
Turnout 30,540 57.8 -9.4
A 5,188 majority would be seriously dented if 4,950 SDLP votes were transferred to Sinn Féin, and Fred Cobain was to poll well...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote criostoir Óg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Apr 2010 at 10:05am
Originally posted by AntrimMan AntrimMan wrote:

Honestly have no idea Rog, I have a fairly basic knowledge of the whole thing.
 
PR works well enough it seems in local elections where 6 MLA;s or whatever are selected from each constituancy. In the westminster elections where 1 MP is selected for a constituancy I don't know how PR would work if ya know what I mean - Surely its just person with most votes gets it.


Works by alternative vote, in the same way the President of Ireland is selected, it means that you need to attain 50%+1 of the vote. If you look at the 1990 results Brian Lenihan Snr had the highest popular vote at first, but it wasn't enough for a majority, Austin Currie was eliminated and his votes transferred largely to Mary Robinson, who won instead. It's a fairer way of doing things because it means that whilst not everyone gets who they want, more people will get someone they don't mind...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AntrimMan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Apr 2010 at 10:10am
Ah , fair enough.
 
Not that I think it'd make a blind bit of difference. Shinners transfer to SDLP and vice versa , DUP to UU ( or UCU these days).
 
Just have 3 tick boxes - Orange, Green , Other and be done with it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote criostoir Óg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Apr 2010 at 10:25am
Originally posted by AntrimMan AntrimMan wrote:

Ah , fair enough.
 
Not that I think it'd make a blind bit of difference. Shinners transfer to SDLP and vice versa , DUP to UU ( or UCU these days).
 
Just have 3 tick boxes - Orange, Green , Other and be done with it.


Spot on, it would give South Belfast back to unionists, keep FST nationalists, and everything else would be left permanently untouched. AV will be far more interesting if/when brought into Britain. With regards to:

Originally posted by RogerMilla RogerMilla wrote:

Originally posted by AntrimMan AntrimMan wrote:

Think he means the likes of the SNP and Plaid Cymru.
 
ah ok , i presume they would do well/bettter under proportional representation ?
 


It would be very interesting indeed, and would be an absolute hammer blow to the Tories (boo hoo) in places where they can just about scrape seats outside their south east heartland. I think nationalists could indeed suffer because if you're not pro independence in Scotland for example you can vote for 2 non-independence parties (lib dems and labour) without worrying that you've split your vote.

I think though that what we've seen in scotland post-devolution is that the SNP concentrate their efforts far more intensely on Scottish Parliament elections, where people are more inclined to vote for them on 'local' issues. The SNP should downplay Westminster elections anyway, portray them with ever declining relevance to Scotland.


Edited by Críostóir Óg - 20 Apr 2010 at 10:26am
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