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Coronavirus - Remain Calm. Do Not Panic

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    Posted: 2 hours 32 minutes ago at 12:07am
Yeah and what would the death rate be if there was normality and we never had one restriction in place?

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Originally posted by seanyshuffler seanyshuffler wrote:

How dangerous is covid compared to the common flu? There's an estimate about how many people have died of covid and probably the same for common flu. We're testing for covid globally so have a good estimate of how many people.have gotten it but probably not the same for seasonal flu.

Is covid more contagious then seasonal flu? I'd say so. Is it more deadly though? That's what I'm not so sure about. 

The average amount of deaths per day is approx. 3 deaths in a population of 5mn. On the day the latest restrictions were announced, there was 0 Deaths. That's the mortality rate we're wrecking our country's economy for, atm. 
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They finally did it man... They killed my f**kin' car...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 hours 8 minutes ago at 3:31pm
Originally posted by thebronze14 thebronze14 wrote:

Originally posted by sid waddell sid waddell wrote:

Originally posted by thebronze14 thebronze14 wrote:

They are saying today that level 5 is working but a couple of weeks ago after nearly 2 weeks in level 3 it was too early to tell if restrictions were working. With communication like this it's little wonder people have little faith in those leading the fight against this. Some will follow what is being said blindly but it is important to question what is going on as well. I'm following the restrictions but I have great reservations about what they are saying at the moment. Can see this most clearly in the school setting
See I have a problem with some of that rhetoric - particularly the bit where "some will follow what is said blindly"

It portrays people who believe there is a need for Level 5 restrictions as sheep

That's not helpful

Unfortunately I believe that many of those who "question" things are doing so from a bad faith perspective and are frequently hysterical in their rhetoric

The sports journalist Ewan MacKenna is a prominent example, David Quinn and Ciara Kelly would be other examples, and this Ivor Cummins chap is definitely another 

I'm all for good faith questioning however and there is certainly much scope for that

Others may disagree with this but that's what I see and I can only give my opinion

Do I believe there is a need for Level 5 restrictions? Yes, because NPHET say so and I trust them - they are the people best placed to know

Do I think NPHET are infallible? No, certainly not

The problem I think is that a lot of the criticism of NPHET is being done in a clear bad faith manner, ascribing cynical motives to them that simply aren't there

Didn't mean that at all, apologies if it sounded that way. I just feel that it is good that people question decisions that are made and not to follow everything blindly. I didn't mean that in relation to just level 5, I mean with Government decision making in general.

I agree with the names you mentioned and an ever growing cohort in the media that are too hysterical. There are people in both sides of the spectrum who are far too hysterical and shoot down others opinions which I find most unhelpful.

Most rational people are just looking for answers to find some glimmer of hope in these extraordinary times.

I find the eulogising in the media of Tony Holohan really sickening though, saying he's a bigger celebrity than Bruce Springsteen etc in IT today. This sort of thing needs to stop. Nearly reminds you of the Cult Of Personality around John Delaney. It's not his doing of course but the media love to have this sort of figure.

Bit of a rant in the end but I'm not getting at people who agree we are in Level 5 lockdown. I disagree with it as I felt we appeared to be getting to grips with it on level 3 and it will kill so many businesses who have adhered perfectly, however, I see the reasons for going in this direction and wouldn't sneer at people who think it's the right call. They may be right or wrong, no one knows. However, my trust in those making the decisions has eroded over time during the pandemic 
Again I've no problem with good faith questioning - in fact it's absolutely essential - that's how you arrive at better policy

I also think the discussion surrounding Tony Holohan is quite toxic - in different directions actually

Yes there is somewhat of a cult of personality around Holohan and that's ludicrous - it's saviour syndrome - the phenomenon where people who are scared of a problem and feel powerless to deal with it invest almost supernatural powers in somebody that this person clearly does not have - they are portrayed as a saviour

But also the ultra cynical hate and negativity towards him him out there, and the portrayal of him as "criminal" is really unhelpful and disgraceful

The bottom line is that, while far from infallible, I do trust NPHET's judgement as regards the numbers - and even on a lay person's basic understanding of things, they appear to be correct in their prescription

Unfortunately decades of ideology has left us with very low ICU capacity in European terms and this has to be uppermost in the minds of policy makers at the moment

I fully understand that most people are worried for their futures - I am too - I am worried about the future of society and how we deal with this - and this is perfectly rational

But easy answers will not work - and that includes endless lockdown, which to some people does appear to look like an easy answer

Easy answers certainly include "open it up", "it's all bullsh*t", this kind of stuff, which needs to left on the barstool

My main problem with the government response is the failure of track and trace or find, test, trace, isolate, or whatever you call it - and therefore the lack of a long term strategy - this problem is far from unique to Ireland however

I believe it is likely the result of management ideology and also due to decades of the mantra of "efficiency" and "leanness", which doesn't work

Or perhaps, they just did not take the threat seriously enough during the summer, I think that's probably not the case but I would not entirely dismiss that notion

I think there's room for a lot of good faith criticism here - the strategy in this area has clearly failed

We need a long term strategy - but even then there's no guarantee that a long term strategy will work as people desire

To go back to "saviour syndrome", I believe there's a natural human inclination to want to believe there are easy answers to very complex problems, and this is what leads people both to having "certainty" and being dogmatic in terms of opinion, and also to put their trust in grifters who peddle those easy answers

So on one side you have people classing Holohan as a saviour, and then on the other, painting anybody who offers an easy answer, like Sunetra Gupta or Martin Feeley or Ivor Cummins, as saviours

Health workers were portrayed as saviours and superheroes, Leo Varadkar referred to superheroes

You see it a lot in US politics as well - a lot of people bought into the fantasy that Robert Mueller was a "saviour" when he clearly was not, then on the other side you have people that truly believe Trump is a saviour that will defeat whatever imagined evil enemy it is that Trump supporters are obsessed by

QAnon is the ultimate "saviour syndrome" cult

Cults are very unhelpful in politics or serious current affairs and social media discourse and indeed discourse everywhere is increasingly trending towards cultism











Edited by sid waddell - 11 hours 2 minutes ago at 3:37pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote thebronze14 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 hours 12 minutes ago at 1:27pm
Originally posted by sid waddell sid waddell wrote:

Originally posted by thebronze14 thebronze14 wrote:

They are saying today that level 5 is working but a couple of weeks ago after nearly 2 weeks in level 3 it was too early to tell if restrictions were working. With communication like this it's little wonder people have little faith in those leading the fight against this. Some will follow what is being said blindly but it is important to question what is going on as well. I'm following the restrictions but I have great reservations about what they are saying at the moment. Can see this most clearly in the school setting
See I have a problem with some of that rhetoric - particularly the bit where "some will follow what is said blindly"

It portrays people who believe there is a need for Level 5 restrictions as sheep

That's not helpful

Unfortunately I believe that many of those who "question" things are doing so from a bad faith perspective and are frequently hysterical in their rhetoric

The sports journalist Ewan MacKenna is a prominent example, David Quinn and Ciara Kelly would be other examples, and this Ivor Cummins chap is definitely another 

I'm all for good faith questioning however and there is certainly much scope for that

Others may disagree with this but that's what I see and I can only give my opinion

Do I believe there is a need for Level 5 restrictions? Yes, because NPHET say so and I trust them - they are the people best placed to know

Do I think NPHET are infallible? No, certainly not

The problem I think is that a lot of the criticism of NPHET is being done in a clear bad faith manner, ascribing cynical motives to them that simply aren't there

Didn't mean that at all, apologies if it sounded that way. I just feel that it is good that people question decisions that are made and not to follow everything blindly. I didn't mean that in relation to just level 5, I mean with Government decision making in general.

I agree with the names you mentioned and an ever growing cohort in the media that are too hysterical. There are people in both sides of the spectrum who are far too hysterical and shoot down others opinions which I find most unhelpful.

Most rational people are just looking for answers to find some glimmer of hope in these extraordinary times.

I find the eulogising in the media of Tony Holohan really sickening though, saying he's a bigger celebrity than Bruce Springsteen etc in IT today. This sort of thing needs to stop. Nearly reminds you of the Cult Of Personality around John Delaney. It's not his doing of course but the media love to have this sort of figure.

Bit of a rant in the end but I'm not getting at people who agree we are in Level 5 lockdown. I disagree with it as I felt we appeared to be getting to grips with it on level 3 and it will kill so many businesses who have adhered perfectly, however, I see the reasons for going in this direction and wouldn't sneer at people who think it's the right call. They may be right or wrong, no one knows. However, my trust in those making the decisions has eroded over time during the pandemic 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Trap junior Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 hours 1 minutes ago at 12:38pm
Ivor Cummins (The Fat Emperor) retweeting Jim Corr and Niall Boylan. 

He's in good company.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 hours 35 minutes ago at 12:04pm
Originally posted by BabbsBalls BabbsBalls wrote:

I get that. But here the figures are not fluctuation much. It’s silly to dismiss them  
But the people who best understand the figures - because they are experts who do this for a living and have actual responsibilities as regards policy - are telling us that the figures are extremely worrying and the trend has to be reversed, because otherwise we move towards a terrible public health/health service situation

Interpretation of the figures to get them to mean something you want them to mean, but which is not the reality - is like the captain of the Titanic ignoring iceberg warnings or believing that the ship was unsinkable
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baldrick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 hours 40 minutes ago at 11:59am
Originally posted by BabbsBalls BabbsBalls wrote:

Baldrick. Come on. We all see the death figures each day... 2,0,2,3,1,0,5 etc .. Those going into ICU are similar also. As well as those going out. You are dismissing facts too easily here.

I am not I am saying that the 14 day figures for cases and hospital admissions and icu admissions and deaths and comparing them over the last few months is the data that should be looked at not a daily figure.   

As Sid said knew day had huge figures although they related to a certain time previously.   As sid said it's important to follow the trends.   The lockdown was pre emptive  in my view.   It wasnt based on how bad it is now but how bad it could get if left alone.  


Edited by Baldrick - 14 hours 38 minutes ago at 12:01pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 hours 41 minutes ago at 11:58am
Originally posted by BabbsBalls BabbsBalls wrote:

Baldrick. Come on. We all see the death figures each day... 2,0,2,3,1,0,5 etc .. Those going into ICU are similar also. As well as those going out. You are dismissing facts too easily here.
Well there were 13 deaths the other day and 7 another day

The death figures are going up week on week and the case figures are going up week on week

You can't let that continue indefinitely because the health service would end up being totally overwhelmed which has terrible implications for society, and would spread absolute panic 

Like, on an individual level, how would we feel if we knew that the health service had been completely overwhelmed and there was no guarantee we'd be seen to if we needed it

And it wouldn't be a typical winter situation like we talk about each year, it would be way more serious than that

The only option would be to not get ill, and in my view that's not an option we can choose as a society
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabbsBalls Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 hours 43 minutes ago at 11:56am
I get that. But here the figures are not fluctuation much. It’s silly to dismiss them  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 hours 47 minutes ago at 11:52am
Originally posted by BabbsBalls BabbsBalls wrote:

Originally posted by sid waddell sid waddell wrote:

Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

1 day stats are no place to build an argument.   14 day stats are what matters whether that is icu admissions or hospital admissions or cases.   

May be an argument for 7 day if they were rising very sharply so you can act quickly.   But esp on the downslide I wouldnt be jumping to anything beyond a 14 day stat 
I agree with this, I think there has been far too much conclusion jumping and over the top social media rhetoric based on one day figures, the trends are the important thing

Not if the figures are similar everyday. 

Relying on daily figures is a bit like saying that you get snow on a particular day, so global warming is therefore not happening
 
The nature of daily figures is that they bob up and down, like the sea

The trend is the important thing


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabbsBalls Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 hours 49 minutes ago at 11:50am
Baldrick. Come on. We all see the death figures each day... 2,0,2,3,1,0,5 etc .. Those going into ICU are similar also. As well as those going out. You are dismissing facts too easily here.

Edited by BabbsBalls - 14 hours 48 minutes ago at 11:51am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 hours 50 minutes ago at 11:49am
Originally posted by BabbsBalls BabbsBalls wrote:

True. I agreed with the lockdown in March obviously as it was new to everyone. I just think it’s right to question how deadly this virus actually is (cue figures from France , USA).

For arguments sake, if the common flue just arrived in China last year and the rest of the world shortly after it’s very likely we would do the exact same thing. RTE giving us daily figures on flue cases, deaths, hospital admissions etc. . A flue tracing app for everyone. It’s not too far fetched. Last year millions died from flue, even with a vaccine available. Point being, covid is new so people are sh*tting the bed. I just think its quite possible that it’s not deadly enough to send everyone home , peoples business’s into ruin and destroy economies worldwide. 

Figures from France and the US are very relevant though

There has been no flu season in the US anyway that has been remotely comparable to Covid in terms of deaths - and with flu seasons we don't shut down - so the spread and how it works through populations is not comparable either

Unfortunately we do not have any real empirical evidence of what would happen if people behave as normal in a Covid situation - because every country has employed some form of restrictions - but there's every reason to think it would be pretty devastating for societies

One thing I've consistently said all through this is that public health and economic health are not in opposition to each other - they are complementary, yet still the narrative has persisted that they are in opposition

Yes of course Covid being new and the fact there is no reliable treatment for it is a key factor here - we're still dealing with a far from entirely known quantity

There's more than enough evidence to suggest that long Covid is a serious problem 

Nobody wants Level 5 - but some of us - most of us I think - accept it is necessary






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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baldrick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 hours 2 minutes ago at 11:37am
Originally posted by BabbsBalls BabbsBalls wrote:

Originally posted by sid waddell sid waddell wrote:

Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

1 day stats are no place to build an argument.   14 day stats are what matters whether that is icu admissions or hospital admissions or cases.   

May be an argument for 7 day if they were rising very sharply so you can act quickly.   But esp on the downslide I wouldnt be jumping to anything beyond a 14 day stat 
I agree with this, I think there has been far too much conclusion jumping and over the top social media rhetoric based on one day figures, the trends are the important thing

Not if the figures are similar everyday. 

Then you use the average daily figure over a 14 day period. 


Edited by Baldrick - 15 hours 1 minutes ago at 11:38am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabbsBalls Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 hours 5 minutes ago at 11:34am
Originally posted by sid waddell sid waddell wrote:

Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

1 day stats are no place to build an argument.   14 day stats are what matters whether that is icu admissions or hospital admissions or cases.   

May be an argument for 7 day if they were rising very sharply so you can act quickly.   But esp on the downslide I wouldnt be jumping to anything beyond a 14 day stat 
I agree with this, I think there has been far too much conclusion jumping and over the top social media rhetoric based on one day figures, the trends are the important thing

Not if the figures are similar everyday. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabbsBalls Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 hours 6 minutes ago at 11:33am
True. I agreed with the lockdown in March obviously as it was new to everyone. I just think it’s right to question how deadly this virus actually is (cue figures from France , USA).

For arguments sake, if the common flue just arrived in China last year and the rest of the world shortly after it’s very likely we would do the exact same thing. RTE giving us daily figures on flue cases, deaths, hospital admissions etc. . A flue tracing app for everyone. It’s not too far fetched. Last year millions died from flue, even with a vaccine available. Point being, covid is new so people are sh*tting the bed. I just think its quite possible that it’s not deadly enough to send everyone home , peoples business’s into ruin and destroy economies worldwide. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 hours 9 minutes ago at 11:30am
Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

1 day stats are no place to build an argument.   14 day stats are what matters whether that is icu admissions or hospital admissions or cases.   

May be an argument for 7 day if they were rising very sharply so you can act quickly.   But esp on the downslide I wouldnt be jumping to anything beyond a 14 day stat 
I agree with this, I think there has been far too much conclusion jumping and over the top social media rhetoric based on one day figures, the trends are the important thing
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 hours 37 minutes ago at 11:02am
Originally posted by BabbsBalls BabbsBalls wrote:

Originally posted by sid waddell sid waddell wrote:

Originally posted by BabbsBalls BabbsBalls wrote:

The current restrictions have only been in for the last couple of days 🤷🏼‍♂️
We've had restrictions of one form or another since last March

Level 2 restrictions were clearly not adequate because the virus spread was constantly growing

That was not a sustainable situation because ultimately it does lead to overwhelming of the health service

It would appear that you believe it was a sustainable situation

Is this the case?

Possibly. The number of those going into ICU was nearly identical to the number of those leaving it..
But the number of cases was exploding under Level 2 restrictions - we went from 10 odd cases a day to over a thousand in a couple of months - so the more the number of cases grows, the more people go into hospital and into ICU

You cannot let this situation continue indefinitely - it's simple maths

And if the health service is overwhelmed that has severe implications for everybody who needs hospital treatment - whether it is for Covid or for something else

Note that I am not saying there are not currently issues as regards people who have non-Covid medical problems - but if you let the health service be overwhelmed, those problems will only be amplified
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