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The Decline of the EPL

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Jack Charlton
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Territorial Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Nov 2022 at 7:28pm
Originally posted by Ibaraki Ibaraki wrote:

Klopp keeping pace with city has given it a veneer of competitiveness but city now average almost 100 points a season and are favorites to win a fifth league out of six.

Oil money has ruined the Premier League. 

Having the money is only half the equation, with how you use it being the other half, and at least as important - see eg how much Man.City's near neighbours have squandered over the same period.

While one team's domination over a sequence is hardly new. Look eg at Liverpool's 10 titles during the 15 years from 1975/76:
LFC, LFC, Forest, LFC, LFC, Villa, LFC, LFC, LFC, Everton, LFC, Everton, LFC, Arsenal, LFC.

Arsenal aside, the only teams to deprive them were two European Cup winners (NFFC and AVFC) and Everton, who as reigning League & ECWC holders, would very possibly also have won the European Cup in 1986, had it not been for the Heysel ban.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Territorial Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Nov 2022 at 7:39pm
And in another sign of the EPLs "decline", of the 831 squad members selected for the World Cup Finals, 163 are currently playing in England = 19.61%.

Next best are Spain with 86/10.35%; Germany - 81/9.35%; Italy - 70/8.43%; France - 58/6.98%.

While it's not just quantity, but quality too. For instance, Brazil's 26 man squad includes 12 from EPL clubs, with 5 playing in Spain, 0 in Germany, 3 in Italy and 2 in France:

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Terzino Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Nov 2022 at 9:59pm
The decline is the decline in competitiveness.

Liverpool's last two title winning campaigns compared:

1989/90
               W........D.........L  
Liverpool  23.......10.......5

versus

2019/20
               W........D.........L  
Liverpool  32.......3.........3


English Premier League campaigns now look more like the way Portugal has always been:

1989/90
               W........D.........L  
Porto       27........5........2

versus

2019/20
               W........D.........L  
Porto       26.......4.........4


Teams in England used to be able to drop points in loads of games and still win titles. That can't happen anymore. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Territorial Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Nov 2022 at 11:55pm
Originally posted by Terzino Terzino wrote:

The decline is the decline in competitiveness.

English Premier League campaigns now look more like the way Portugal has always been:

Portugal, is it?

Their Premier Division has operated since 1934/35. Belelnses won it in 1945/46 and Boavista in 2000/01. All the other 86 titles have been won by Benfica (37), Porto (30) or Sporting (19).

The EPL has had five different winners in the last 10 seasons.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ibaraki Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Nov 2022 at 8:43am
Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:


While one team's domination over a sequence is hardly new. Look eg at Liverpool's 10 titles during the 15 years from 1975/76:
LFC, LFC, Forest, LFC, LFC, Villa, LFC, LFC, LFC, Everton, LFC, Everton, LFC, Arsenal, LFC.


Any club could follow Liverpools set up in the 70s/80s or Manchester Uniteds in the 90's, well run clubs whose success enabled them to invest in team and continue that success.

How can clubs follow the Manchester city model? 

Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:

Having the money is only half the equation

Where the money came from is a major issue. They cheated to get their success, Liverpool and Manchester United didn't, either did the Arsenal side of the 90's. 


Edited by Ibaraki - 17 Nov 2022 at 12:56pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Territorial Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Nov 2022 at 2:19pm
Originally posted by Ibaraki Ibaraki wrote:

Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:


While one team's domination over a sequence is hardly new. Look eg at Liverpool's 10 titles during the 15 years from 1975/76:
LFC, LFC, Forest, LFC, LFC, Villa, LFC, LFC, LFC, Everton, LFC, Everton, LFC, Arsenal, LFC.


Any club could follow Liverpools set up in the 70s/80s or Manchester Uniteds in the 90's, well run clubs whose success enabled them to invest in team and continue that success.

How can clubs follow the Manchester city model? 

Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:

Having the money is only half the equation

Where the money came from is a major issue. They cheated to get their success, Liverpool and Manchester United didn't, either did the Arsenal side of the 90's. 
Theres nothing new under the sun. I mean, back i the 1950's Sunderland were known as "The Bank of England club" - for all the good it's done them since!

Anyhow, while there's no doubt that cheating (oil money) lifted M.City to a new level, it's still how you use it thereafter which counts. Liverpool haven't had the same money, but still put it up to City, while Man U did have it, but failed to make a challenge.

Moreover, that early injection of cash has already mostly been spent by M.City (stadium, Academy etc), so now that the PL and UEFA are (finally) getting their act together on these matters, it will be much harder for them to carry on their financial doping.

And all that's before you factor in eg Arsenal's tilt at the title this season, or Newcastle's ambitions to crash the Big Six and make it a Big Seven.

Meanwhile, what happens M.City after Pep leaves?

Will some future traveller in an antique land stumble upon an old statue outside the crumbling reamis of a stadium and read the inscription:

"My name is Guardiola, king of kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"

Wink


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ibaraki Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Nov 2022 at 2:34pm
Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:

Theres nothing new under the sun. I mean, back i the 1950's Sunderland were known as "The Bank of England club" - for all the good it's done them since!

A team has never been bankrolled by a country before, nevermind one with an estimated fund of £800bn. 

Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:

Anyhow, while there's no doubt that cheating (oil money) lifted M.City to a new level, it's still how you use it thereafter which counts.

Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:

Moreover, that early injection of cash has already mostly been spent by M.City (stadium, Academy etc), so now that the PL and UEFA are (finally) getting their act together on these matters, it will be much harder for them to carry on their financial doping.

The Daniel Kinnehan of football LOL

"An international Boxing power broker". Yeah, his initial money was from drugs, but look at him now! 


Edited by Ibaraki - 17 Nov 2022 at 2:38pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Territorial Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Nov 2022 at 3:13pm
Originally posted by Ibaraki Ibaraki wrote:

The Daniel Kinnehan of football LOL

"An international Boxing power broker". Yeah, his initial money was from drugs, but look at him now! 

I must confess, I'm not sure where you're going with this.

And no offence, but I'm not greatly interested either.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Roberto Baggio Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Nov 2022 at 3:20pm
Who let Kieran Cunningham onto the forum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Terzino Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Nov 2022 at 3:37pm
Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:

Portugal, is it?

Their Premier Division has operated since 1934/35. Belelnses won it in 1945/46 and Boavista in 2000/01. All the other 86 titles have been won by Benfica (37), Porto (30) or Sporting (19).

The EPL has had five different winners in the last 10 seasons.


In the past, a club could drop points in 12 to 20 games and still win the league in England.

Nowadays, it's more like 6 to 12. Like you'd expect in Portugal.

Although English teams are far richer than they used to be, their league is much less competitive.


Current state of the Premier League versus the Primeira Liga

                  Pld......W........D.........L  
Arsenal       14.......12.......1.........1
Man City     14.......10.......2.........2


                  Pld......W........D.........L  
Benfica       13.......12.......1.........0
Porto          13........9........2.........2






Edited by Terzino - 17 Nov 2022 at 3:40pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ibaraki Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Nov 2022 at 4:09pm
Originally posted by Territorial Territorial wrote:

Originally posted by Ibaraki Ibaraki wrote:

The Daniel Kinnehan of football LOL

"An international Boxing power broker". Yeah, his initial money was from drugs, but look at him now! 

I must confess, I'm not sure where you're going with this.

And no offence, but I'm not greatly interested either.

I'm sure you can figure out the analogy. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Territorial Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Nov 2022 at 5:29pm
Originally posted by Terzino Terzino wrote:

In the past, a club could drop points in 12 to 20 games and still win the league in England.

Nowadays, it's more like 6 to 12. Like you'd expect in Portugal.

Although English teams are far richer than they used to be, their league is much less competitive.

"Much less"?

There is an argument for saying that this present Man City team is truly exceptional, and would have been all-conquering in any era.

A good comparison is the great Spurs team of 1960/61, They were the first team to do the Double in the 20th Century i.e. when the FA Cup was just about as prestigious as the League.

They won their fitst 11 games on the trot (still the record btw), drew game 12, then won 4 more before their first defeat. Meaning that in their first 25 games to 31st December, they'd won 22, drawn 2 and lost just the once. By that stage, everyone accepted that the title was theirs, so they were able to concentrate on the Cup. They were never off 1st place the entire season.

And in taking 69 of 75 points from those first 25 games (3 points for a win) they were, statistically at least, on course for 105 points over 38 games.

Yet they only took 29 of 51 from their remaining 17 games, meaning that over the whole season they Won 31, Drew 4 and Lost 7:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960%E2%80%9361_Tottenham_Hotspur_F.C._season

I suspect that had they had a Liverpool to push them all the way like they've pushed M.City, then Spurs would have kept their foot on the accelerator right to the end and possibly have smashed the 100 point barrier for 38 games.

Originally posted by Terzino Terzino wrote:

Although English teams are far richer than they used to be, their league is much less competitive.


Current state of the Premier League versus the Primeira Liga

                  Pld......W........D.........L  
Arsenal       14.......12.......1.........1
Man City     14.......10.......2.........2


                  Pld......W........D.........L  
Benfica       13.......12.......1.........0
Porto          13........9........2.........2
You're taking points dropped by the Champions as the measure of competitiveness and while I see the value of that, imo it only goes so far.  If instead you were to look to the uncompetitiverness of the bottom clubs, imo you'd have more of a case. And that problem could easily be solved by reducing the PL to 18 teams. (Would sort out the yo-yo clubs, at least).

Anyhow, there are more ways of measuring competitiveness. I meantioned that 5 different clubs have won the PL in the last 10 years. (Arsenal a decent bet to make it 6 in 11?)

While for Spain its 3 clubs (Barca x 5, RM x 3, Atletico x 2); Germany it's just the one (you-know-wh0); Italy is 3 (Juve x 8, plus Inter and Milan); while Ligue 1 is also 3 (PSG x 8, plus Monaco and Lille).

While taking a longer look, since WWII, 17 different teams have been champions of England. Only the Bundesliga matches that, though a couple of those teams have since disappeared.. While 14 French clubs have won their Championship , 12 Italian and just 8 Spanish in all that time.

As for Europe, overall England has had five different Champions, plus four separate Runners-Up, with four of those in the last four years - far more than any other country.

And to take this back to the thread title, when Brentford got promoted in 2021, they were the 50th different team in the 30 years of the PL. I've not checked, but I'd be surprised if any of the other Big Five leagues have had that many.

So far from being in decline, the evidence suggests, to me at any rate, that as the money has poured in, the PL has only got stronger, all things considered.

Which is why the other big European leagues are crapping themselves, since if the PL really is in decline, they must be close to freefall.


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Lock the thread. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote thebronze14 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Nov 2022 at 11:13pm
territorial gets some hard on for the premier league... Gets more offended when it gets any stick than when norn iron doesLOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Territorial Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2022 at 12:43pm
Originally posted by thebronze14 thebronze14 wrote:

territorial gets some hard on for the premier league... Gets more offended when it gets any stick than when norn iron doesLOL

Not "offended" at all.

Terzino and Ibaraki raise interesting points.

You might try it some time.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Terzino Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2022 at 3:50pm
Manchester City are more than exceptional though. It operates on a different level due to its ownership. 

While Tottenham or Leicester City can have a great season, and catch lightning in a bottle for one campaign, and one campaign only, Manchester City have the lightning bought and paid for. They can produce results season after season like something made in a factory.

Nantes caught the lightning themselves back in the mid 90s, and their record is perhaps the best ever in France, but they only did it once, as it was organic. PSG can do what Nantes did season after season.

Bayern totally dominate in Germany, and can win the title by dropping points in as few as 5 to 10 games - just like you'd see in Portugal.

Throughout the best leagues in Europe, the competitions are increasingly divided into the haves and the have mores, with the result that the competitiveness has been eroded.

You can say that this has always existed to some level, but now it has become supercharged. These teams are now too big for their own leagues.

It will eventually reach the stage that a European Super League will become an inevitability.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Territorial Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Nov 2022 at 4:34pm
Originally posted by Terzino Terzino wrote:

Manchester City are more than exceptional though. It operates on a different level due to its ownership. 

While Tottenham or Leicester City can have a great season, and catch lightning in a bottle for one campaign, and one campaign only, Manchester City have the lightning bought and paid for. They can produce results season after season like something made in a factory.

Nantes caught the lightning themselves back in the mid 90s, and their record is perhaps the best ever in France, but they only did it once, as it was organic. PSG can do what Nantes did season after season.

Bayern totally dominate in Germany, and can win the title by dropping points in as few as 5 to 10 games - just like you'd see in Portugal.

Throughout the best leagues in Europe, the competitions are increasingly divided into the haves and the have mores, with the result that the competitiveness has been eroded.

You can say that this has always existed to some level, but now it has become supercharged. These teams are now too big for their own leagues.

M.City haven't bought the casino, they've just raised the stakes at their table.

Sooner or later they'll miscalculate and play the wrong card (when Pep goes?).

Or someone else  like eg Newcastle will see them and raise them some more, until they reach the house limits (Financial Fair Play rules).

And eventually, even if they don't lose their prime seat at the table, or at least have to shift up to allow other wealthy players in, at which point we'll eventually see new winners.

Which is the way football has been since the game first went professional.

In England.

Originally posted by Terzino Terzino wrote:

It will eventually reach the stage that a European Super League will become an inevitability.
Possibly.

But remember, when RM, Barca and Juve first came up with their own ESL, it was partly in response to the increasing dominance of the PL, both financial and playing-wise, hence their invitation to six English clubs to be Founder Members, but only three Spanish and three Italian.

Which is why I wouldn't bet against the Premier League becoming the European Super League in all but name.

We'll see.
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