Scotland vs Poland - What result do you want?

BabbsBalls wrote: We will lose to Germany and Scotland will beat Poland . Have to go to Warsaw to win ...

I think Poland will come away from Glasgow with at least a point. Scotland are mediocre and have been massively overrated by many on here who have been talking Strachan up as the second coming of Busby/Shankly/Stein. If we can grind out another draw against Germany we'll be heading to Warsaw with a playoff in the bag and maybe even a winner takes all shot at automatic qualification.

So if we match the Scotland result in the next game, we are guaranteed 3rd place playoff. Cant see us beating ze Germans and hoping for a draw, so a polish win is what we're after, but fancy the draw in that.

Wow.

Gashley Grimes wrote: People bang on about Ireland not taking a big scalp since the Dutch in 2001 maybe the Germans are ripe for picking. If we can play with that second half intensity from the off in with a chance. Shane Long must start.

If we are playing Poland and a draw suits both teams, it will be a draw and I will be backing that result heavily.

Poland win. Unless we can grab a point v Germany, in that case a draw.

Scotland have to win next time out. They cannot think that four points will be enough to catch us. I mean, they will have a real fear that if they draw, even if we lose to Germany, there is a real risk of the cynical, mutually beneficial draw between ourselves and Poland (however likely or not that might be). There are other reasons too.

If they get six points from their next two games, they'll know we need three v Germany to keep it out of their hands (plus Poland not losing at home to us, of course): if we don't beat Germany, it's back in Scotland's hands. With a win over Poland, they only result they need is us not to beat Germany (say we draw, the table is Ger 20 / Pol 17 / Ire 16 / Sco 14, and 3 points for Scotland v Gibraltar is enough for them to finish third, come what may, given Scotland's superior head to head against both us and Poland, as one of us will finish on 17 or lower).

There's no denying the next game is massive for Scotland. A draw doesn't necessarily leave them out but a win leaves them relying on just one result (us not to win v Germany), not the two they need if they draw (us to get no more points at all). The difference, from their perspective, is absolutely massive. They'll know this and it makes me fear that they will be seriously up for the fight. They can't settle for a draw. Poland, on the other hand, will know they have a fall back if they do fail in Scotland (i.e. the home game v us), which could inspire complacency there. They can happily settle for the draw, knowing they need only one point at home to us, even if we somehow beat Germany, and so long as the draw is 2-2 or lower.

I'm seriously worried Scotland will win, in other words, given what is at stake for both teams, or at very least get a draw. There is so much more at stake for Scotland, whereas a draw for Poland is far from the end of the world, nor is a defeat. I mean, from Poland's perspective, there is little difference between a draw and a defeat in Scotland: in all likelihood, either leaves them needing just a single point at home to us to qualify automatically. While it does mean another defeat to us would see them eliminated entirely (as opposed to in the playoffs), it is clear the game in Warsaw is the bigger game for them. Obviously they know that a win will send them in, but they also know that a point at home to us will be enough too, and that's an easy fall back position.

Now, the question of the result we ought to want in that game is different: obviously in an ideal world, they draw, we draw, and we get a shot at Poland for free. However, they draw, we lose to Germany, and we have to win in Poland: not a pleasant prospect, albeit of course we have the chance of the beneficial draw.

I suppose it turns on this: if that game is a draw and we lose, do you reckon we would still have a chance at a mutually beneficial draw v Poland? Maybe: but likely not. Remember, Poland would well know that if we won, they would be in the playoff and I don't think they'd take the risk of playing out a friendly draw. I imagine they'd play for the win, albeit maybe ease off at 1-0 up, knowing it would take two goals to eliminate them.

This all leaves aside the downside of a Poland win of course: we basically cannot qualify automatically if that happens. Poland were not brilliant here, remember, and playing a dead rubber there, guaranteed a playoff but playing for nothing, would be a bit anti-climactic. While, of course, I would prefer to have a free crack at them (i.e. we both draw our next games), having a chance to win and qualify there, but only needing a draw for the playoffs, would not be the end of the world, even if a loss would knock us out. It's the three outcome win and in, draw and playoff and lose and out, that does give a little fear, but we can avoid that with a point against Germany.

So what do I actually want? Us to draw with Germany (who only need a point, remember), Scotland to draw with Poland, and a free shot in Warsaw. Hell, even if we don't make it, at least we'd actually have to play attacking football in an effort to win the game. What will happen? Pfft, who knows?

Drumcondra 69er wrote: Poland win. Unless we can grab a point v Germany, in that case a draw.

But thats the point of the question.
We know whats needed.

But the point is the games you refer to are played simultaneously; and so the question is what do you hope for in the other game.

Edited by rolo - 08 Sep 2015 at 2:11pm

I see James Morrison will be suspended v Poland. He's usually a goodish player for them.



Edited by grannyrule - 08 Sep 2015 at 3:04pm