The 'Protestant State for a Protestant Peope' is dead and not coming back. Whatever happens in the future to the constitutional position of the 6 counties, unionism will no longer be able to play the orange card. Unionism now actually will need the support of a sizable portion of the catholic electorate to maintain the status quo and safeguard the union. That's an incredible thing to witness given the history of the last 100 years on this island.

Bryson, Allister et al still haven't copped onto this yet of course. The sh*t fit 167 has been having twitter the last 24 hours is hilarious as it is predictable.

Any way, in the words of Yates..'all changed, changed utterly' 

Is there?

Actually the number of people who identify as British across the board has fallen considerbly since 2011, from approx 40% to 31%. (A 3rd identity of 'Northern Irish' has emerged. This will be the middle ground targeted in any future boarder poll)

Equally there is a growing number of Protestants who would favour a UI, particularly since Brexit. Swings and roundabouts for sure. As I mentioned religion doesn't necessarily equate to nationally, but in the context of the North its a decent barometer.

If you look at the quite clearly overt sectarian nature of the 1st 70 odd years of the 6 county, this is quite a symbolic and historic shift in demographics. Playing it down as otherwise is nonsense.

Really ? last time i checked 42% wasnt a majority nor indeed is 46% !
 

Sorry, worded poorly on my part. Catholics are now the largest faith group  in NI, but no faith group has an overall majority as you've pointed out. Still massively significant 

Don’t worry we all knew what you meant!

Newryrep is a Unionist so he’s not happy with the Census results.

Ah here 

Some of the SOS for NI were so ignorant! with Karen Bradley not realising voting patterns in relation the orange v green.

 

United Eire still miles off.  A premature referendum would actually do the cause more damage imo.

I would concur with this. A lot of people in the census identify across multiple categories e.g. Irish & Northern Irish, Irish & British etc. I think over time that trend may well continue. 

Irish identity is on the rise almost as quickly as British identity is dropping. Northern Irish identity, whilst rising, is not growing as quickly as Irish.

We should be planning for a boarder poll in 10 years 

At the end if the day it will come down there being a clear standard of living / career prospect benefits that would be almsot guaranteed. Otherwise status quo will be the default option.

The public sector is around 30% of direct employment up there. What would be the plan for those jobs, how would they fall under the Irish public sector after they Nexit? How many jobs would need to be replaced and what would they be replaced with?

You could have a nationalist Catholic that has a nice job at a public company that maybe doesn't want to leave the UK after all for fear of his job, he probably influences those around him to 'remain' as well.

Now, it could very well happen that the UK economy goes into a deep hole and we do alright and there is a revolution from within to rejoin the UI. But I think that rushing a border poll ahead of a big shift in the economic landscape OR the clear will of the people up there would be a bad thing

Some different figures been floating about

That's it exactly

I put down Cafflick on my census form recently but I dont go to mass or anyfink.  Should have put down agnostic.  

Norn Iron Census 2022:

Are you:

Her Majesty's subject:

 or

Them 'uns:

Do you spake de olde Ulshter Shcats and dig into a frayed chookie and tinnae coke after a few wee pints with a wee dafty? Yes/No

  or

Do you curry my yoghurt coca cola ye fenian bastard?  Yes/No

nail on the head

anyone who thinks a unity referendum is further away after the Census results doesn't understand the North. Not saying it's gonna happen within the next year or two but the identity question in particular, with the Northern Irish option added, highlights the trend. 

But unity will be won not just from counting Catholics in the North. It'll be down to the vision set out for a new Ireland. 

Neither have any credibility though.

Allister spent 2 weeks eulogising the Queen but didn't get an invite to the funeral and then a few SF did. Raging 

All they will read on the news is Housing Crisis this, Heath care crisis that, self-interested politicians. Although these problems exist in the North and the UK of course but they are seen to not be near as bad.

Brexit and the NI protocol actually benefits businesses that export as well so they would want to keep that, that would probably be part of the UI deal anyway. An arrangement for trade between the UK and the Common Travel area. 

In saying that I do think it will happen, could be another decade though. 

Unionism keeps shooting themselves in the foot and SF are being clever and progressive which is helping matters. 

It will be decided by economics

Our infrastructure is sh1t. No GDP percentiles hide it.

We still have raw sewage going into sea. WWTPs operate way over capacity.

Our health service is appalling 

Housing

We have a situation where our best and brightest students plan to leave.

We fix that. We can have our UI

After a successful Unity referendum, you need to have all the institutions which Northern Ireland currently has separately from England, but separate from Ireland. 

So a Northern Ireland Assembly, Northern Ireland Civil Service, PSNI, school system, legal framework. But you’re sending TDs to Leinster House to influence the operation of that instead of MPs to Westminster.

Reunification will be a slow road and having a border poll, followed by Gardaí on the streets of Belfast and kids doing their leaving cert the next day, won’t work.

I think that legal reunification by referendum in my lifetime is an inevitability, but that a 32 Ireland that looks the same is not. 

I think people need to understand that unification will not simply be the 6 counties folding into the Irish State. We will need to build a brand new natio  state from the ground up. That's actually one of the most exciting parts for me. We right so many of the wrongs of this State in the process.

That's why forums like a citizens assembly or new ireland aew vital important because they will flesh out the what the new state would be.

Yeah true enough. That is probably how it will play out in the end