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Official- The Orange State is Dead

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Topic: Official- The Orange State is Dead
Posted By: zizu Kilbane
Subject: Official- The Orange State is Dead
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 12:27pm
Catholics are now officially in the majority in the 6 counties. Although religion certainly does not equate nationality (also borne out of the census results), this is quite a watershed moment in history of the island. 

The 'Protestant State for a Protestant Peope' is dead and not coming back. Whatever happens in the future to the constitutional position of the 6 counties, unionism will no longer be able to play the orange card. Unionism now actually will need the support of a sizable portion of the catholic electorate to maintain the status quo and safeguard the union. That's an incredible thing to witness given the history of the last 100 years on this island.

Bryson, Allister et al still haven't copped onto this yet of course. The sh*t fit 167 has been having twitter the last 24 hours is hilarious as it is predictable.

Any way, in the words of Yates..'all changed, changed utterly' 


-------------
"Sometimes, sh*t happens, someone's gotta deal with it, and who ya gonna call?"



Replies:
Posted By: Hotlips_Hoolahan
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 12:31pm
Surely this is negated somewhat by an increasing number of Catholics wanting to remain in the union and/or identifying as British? 


Posted By: Cabra Hoop
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 12:40pm
Originally posted by zizu Kilbane zizu Kilbane wrote:

Catholics are now officially in the majority in the 6 counties. Although religion certainly does not equate nationality (also borne out of the census results), this is quite a watershed moment in history of the island. 

The 'Protestant State for a Protestant Peope' is dead and not coming back. Whatever happens in the future to the constitutional position of the 6 counties, unionism will no longer be able to play the orange card. Unionism now actually will need the support of a sizable portion of the catholic electorate to maintain the status quo and safeguard the union. That's an incredible thing to witness given the history of the last 100 years on this island.

Bryson, Allister et al still haven't copped onto this yet of course. The sh*t fit 167 has been having twitter the last 24 hours is hilarious as it is predictable.

Any way, in the words of Yates..'all changed, changed utterly' 
After generations of hostilities, it all came down to riding in the end. 

-------------
" BFC always gives me a laugh........ "


Posted By: horsebox
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 12:49pm
Originally posted by Hotlips_Hoolahan Hotlips_Hoolahan wrote:

Surely this is negated somewhat by an increasing number of Catholics wanting to remain in the union and/or identifying as British? 

Is there?


-------------
It was far across the sea,
When the devil got a hold of me,
He wouldn't set me free,
So he kept me soul for ransom.
na na na na na na na na na
na na na na na na na na.
I'm a sailor man from Glasgow to


Posted By: zizu Kilbane
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 12:50pm
Originally posted by Hotlips_Hoolahan Hotlips_Hoolahan wrote:

Surely this is negated somewhat by an increasing number of Catholics wanting to remain in the union and/or identifying as British? 

Actually the number of people who identify as British across the board has fallen considerbly since 2011, from approx 40% to 31%. (A 3rd identity of 'Northern Irish' has emerged. This will be the middle ground targeted in any future boarder poll)

Equally there is a growing number of Protestants who would favour a UI, particularly since Brexit. Swings and roundabouts for sure. As I mentioned religion doesn't necessarily equate to nationally, but in the context of the North its a decent barometer.

If you look at the quite clearly overt sectarian nature of the 1st 70 odd years of the 6 county, this is quite a symbolic and historic shift in demographics. Playing it down as otherwise is nonsense.




-------------
"Sometimes, sh*t happens, someone's gotta deal with it, and who ya gonna call?"


Posted By: Green Cockade
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 12:54pm
What it will come down to in a border poll may well be the votes of ethnic minorities, up to 3.4% I think it is now with Poles the largest grouping, and agnostics such as Alliance Party supporters. The bad treatment of ethnic minorities by loyalists may influence their views and a lot of agnostics are now leaning towards constitutional change not least because of Brexit. The prospect of getting back into the EU ( our “precious union”) would certainly be a significant campaigning issue. On top of which, you can never underestimate the stupidity and obduracy of political unionism. So-all good, then.


Posted By: Newryrep
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 1:03pm
Originally posted by zizu Kilbane zizu Kilbane wrote:

Catholics are now officially in the majority in the 6 counties. Although religion certainly does not equate nationality (also borne out of the census results), this is quite a watershed moment in history of the island. 

The 'Protestant State for a Protestant Peope' is dead and not coming back. Whatever happens in the future to the constitutional position of the 6 counties, unionism will no longer be able to play the orange card. Unionism now actually will need the support of a sizable portion of the catholic electorate to maintain the status quo and safeguard the union. That's an incredible thing to witness given the history of the last 100 years on this island.

Bryson, Allister et al still haven't copped onto this yet of course. The sh*t fit 167 has been having twitter the last 24 hours is hilarious as it is predictable.

Any way, in the words of Yates..'all changed, changed utterly' 

Really ? last time i checked 42% wasnt a majority nor indeed is 46% !
 




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'Irish' Songs for an Irish team - no SPL EPL generic sh*te
Richard Dunne - 6th Sept 11 - best marshalling of a defence in Moscow since General Zukov Russia V Germany 1941


Posted By: Cabra Hoop
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 1:09pm
I think its well known that public service is a huge employer in NI and many from the Catholic/Nationalist persuasion have belatedly forged decent paying careers therein. I wonder would that influence the more middle class nationalist thinking if they and their jobs are subsumed into the Republics public service and promotion chances reduced. 

-------------
" BFC always gives me a laugh........ "


Posted By: zizu Kilbane
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 1:16pm
Originally posted by Newryrep Newryrep wrote:

Originally posted by zizu Kilbane zizu Kilbane wrote:

Catholics are now officially in the majority in the 6 counties. Although religion certainly does not equate nationality (also borne out of the census results), this is quite a watershed moment in history of the island. 

The 'Protestant State for a Protestant Peope' is dead and not coming back. Whatever happens in the future to the constitutional position of the 6 counties, unionism will no longer be able to play the orange card. Unionism now actually will need the support of a sizable portion of the catholic electorate to maintain the status quo and safeguard the union. That's an incredible thing to witness given the history of the last 100 years on this island.

Bryson, Allister et al still haven't copped onto this yet of course. The sh*t fit 167 has been having twitter the last 24 hours is hilarious as it is predictable.

Any way, in the words of Yates..'all changed, changed utterly' 

Really ? last time i checked 42% wasnt a majority nor indeed is 46% !
 



Sorry, worded poorly on my part. Catholics are now the largest faith group  in NI, but no faith group has an overall majority as you've pointed out. Still massively significant 


-------------
"Sometimes, sh*t happens, someone's gotta deal with it, and who ya gonna call?"


Posted By: BrendanD88
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 2:26pm
Originally posted by zizu Kilbane zizu Kilbane wrote:

Originally posted by Newryrep Newryrep wrote:

Originally posted by zizu Kilbane zizu Kilbane wrote:

Catholics are now officially in the majority in the 6 counties. Although religion certainly does not equate nationality (also borne out of the census results), this is quite a watershed moment in history of the island. 

The 'Protestant State for a Protestant Peope' is dead and not coming back. Whatever happens in the future to the constitutional position of the 6 counties, unionism will no longer be able to play the orange card. Unionism now actually will need the support of a sizable portion of the catholic electorate to maintain the status quo and safeguard the union. That's an incredible thing to witness given the history of the last 100 years on this island.

Bryson, Allister et al still haven't copped onto this yet of course. The sh*t fit 167 has been having twitter the last 24 hours is hilarious as it is predictable.

Any way, in the words of Yates..'all changed, changed utterly' 

Really ? last time i checked 42% wasnt a majority nor indeed is 46% !
 



Sorry, worded poorly on my part. Catholics are now the largest faith group  in NI, but no faith group has an overall majority as you've pointed out. Still massively significant 

Don’t worry we all knew what you meant!

Newryrep is a Unionist so he’s not happy with the Census results.


Posted By: Borussia
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 2:27pm
I think the findings of this census would indicate that a border poll probably isn't as close as maybe was previously thought. 


Posted By: irishmufc
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 3:41pm
Originally posted by BrendanD88 BrendanD88 wrote:

Originally posted by zizu Kilbane zizu Kilbane wrote:

Originally posted by Newryrep Newryrep wrote:

Originally posted by zizu Kilbane zizu Kilbane wrote:

Catholics are now officially in the majority in the 6 counties. Although religion certainly does not equate nationality (also borne out of the census results), this is quite a watershed moment in history of the island. 

The 'Protestant State for a Protestant Peope' is dead and not coming back. Whatever happens in the future to the constitutional position of the 6 counties, unionism will no longer be able to play the orange card. Unionism now actually will need the support of a sizable portion of the catholic electorate to maintain the status quo and safeguard the union. That's an incredible thing to witness given the history of the last 100 years on this island.

Bryson, Allister et al still haven't copped onto this yet of course. The sh*t fit 167 has been having twitter the last 24 hours is hilarious as it is predictable.

Any way, in the words of Yates..'all changed, changed utterly' 

Really ? last time i checked 42% wasnt a majority nor indeed is 46% !
 



Sorry, worded poorly on my part. Catholics are now the largest faith group  in NI, but no faith group has an overall majority as you've pointed out. Still massively significant 

Don’t worry we all knew what you meant!

Newryrep is a Unionist so he’s not happy with the Census results.

Ah here LOL


-------------
Giros,glue sniffing,dogs on ropes
But I see people with dreams and hopes


Posted By: horsebox
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 3:44pm
Unsurprisingly the British Government have refused to set out the criteria for a border poll with Brandon Lewis blatenly ignoring any correspondence in relation to the topic.

Some of the SOS for NI were so ignorant! with Karen Bradley not realising voting patterns in relation the orange v green.


 




-------------
It was far across the sea,
When the devil got a hold of me,
He wouldn't set me free,
So he kept me soul for ransom.
na na na na na na na na na
na na na na na na na na.
I'm a sailor man from Glasgow to


Posted By: Trap junior
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 3:45pm
A lot of Cathics are now identifying as Northern Irish and not nationalists.

United Eire still miles off.  A premature referendum would actually do the cause more damage imo.


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Insert pathetic Baldrick post below


Posted By: Trap junior
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 3:47pm
On a side note I find some catholics from up north a strange breed. Confused.com

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Insert pathetic Baldrick post below


Posted By: Green Cockade
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 4:04pm
The “Northern Irish” category was thrown in as a deliberately mischievous construct. Anyone from Derry, Belfast etc is factually that so you would have literal minded people of a nationalist/ republican ethos ticking that box as well as drum banging Kyle Lafferty types. There is no way of knowing the proportions making up the overall group and the question was designed to that end. What will ultimately seal the fate of this sectarian statelet is the inability of political unionism to reinvent itself sufficiently to include or attract anyone outside the borders of its own inbred paranoid dystopia.


Posted By: Borussia
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 4:08pm
Originally posted by Trap junior Trap junior wrote:

A lot of Cathics are now identifying as Northern Irish and not nationalists.

United Eire still miles off.  A premature referendum would actually do the cause more damage imo.

I would concur with this. A lot of people in the census identify across multiple categories e.g. Irish & Northern Irish, Irish & British etc. I think over time that trend may well continue. 


Posted By: zizu Kilbane
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 6:11pm
Originally posted by Borussia Borussia wrote:

Originally posted by Trap junior Trap junior wrote:

A lot of Cathics are now identifying as Northern Irish and not nationalists.

United Eire still miles off.  A premature referendum would actually do the cause more damage imo.

I would concur with this. A lot of people in the census identify across multiple categories e.g. Irish & Northern Irish, Irish & British etc. I think over time that trend may well continue. 



Irish identity is on the rise almost as quickly as British identity is dropping. Northern Irish identity, whilst rising, is not growing as quickly as Irish.

We should be planning for a boarder poll in 10 years 


-------------
"Sometimes, sh*t happens, someone's gotta deal with it, and who ya gonna call?"


Posted By: t_rAndy
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 6:34pm
Demographics alone won't be enough (unless completely lob sided). 
At the end if the day it will come down there being a clear standard of living / career prospect benefits that would be almsot guaranteed. Otherwise status quo will be the default option.

The public sector is around 30% of direct employment up there. What would be the plan for those jobs, how would they fall under the Irish public sector after they Nexit? How many jobs would need to be replaced and what would they be replaced with?

You could have a nationalist Catholic that has a nice job at a public company that maybe doesn't want to leave the UK after all for fear of his job, he probably influences those around him to 'remain' as well.

Now, it could very well happen that the UK economy goes into a deep hole and we do alright and there is a revolution from within to rejoin the UI. But I think that rushing a border poll ahead of a big shift in the economic landscape OR the clear will of the people up there would be a bad thing


Posted By: horsebox
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 8:24pm
Originally posted by zizu Kilbane zizu Kilbane wrote:

Originally posted by Borussia Borussia wrote:

Originally posted by Trap junior Trap junior wrote:

A lot of Cathics are now identifying as Northern Irish and not nationalists.

United Eire still miles off.  A premature referendum would actually do the cause more damage imo.

I would concur with this. A lot of people in the census identify across multiple categories e.g. Irish & Northern Irish, Irish & British etc. I think over time that trend may well continue. 



Irish identity is on the rise almost as quickly as British identity is dropping. Northern Irish identity, whilst rising, is not growing as quickly as Irish.

We should be planning for a boarder poll in 10 years 

Some different figures been floating about

https://www.instagram.com/p/Ci0D8a0IOEv/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link




-------------
It was far across the sea,
When the devil got a hold of me,
He wouldn't set me free,
So he kept me soul for ransom.
na na na na na na na na na
na na na na na na na na.
I'm a sailor man from Glasgow to


Posted By: Artie Ziff
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 8:35pm
Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

The “Northern Irish” category was thrown in as a deliberately mischievous construct. Anyone from Derry, Belfast etc is factually that so you would have literal minded people of a nationalist/ republican ethos ticking that box as well as drum banging Kyle Lafferty types. There is no way of knowing the proportions making up the overall group and the question was designed to that end. What will ultimately seal the fate of this sectarian statelet is the inability of political unionism to reinvent itself sufficiently to include or attract anyone outside the borders of its own inbred paranoid dystopia.

That's it exactly


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It would damage this forums' reputation


Posted By: Trap junior
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 10:47pm
I put down Cafflick on my census form recently but I dont go to mass or anyfink.  Should have put down agnostic.  




-------------
Insert pathetic Baldrick post below


Posted By: Roberto Baggio
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 10:51pm
Bryson and Allister and similar bigots have spent the day telling everyone that they have a lot of Catholic friends who are unionist 


Posted By: Trap junior
Date Posted: 22 Sep 2022 at 10:53pm
Norn Iron Census 2022:

Are you:

Her Majesty's subject:
 or
Them 'uns:


Do you spake de olde Ulshter Shcats and dig into a frayed chookie and tinnae coke after a few wee pints with a wee dafty? Yes/No
  or

Do you curry my yoghurt coca cola ye fenian bastard?  Yes/No



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Insert pathetic Baldrick post below


Posted By: notpropaganda73
Date Posted: 23 Sep 2022 at 7:27am
Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

The “Northern Irish” category was thrown in as a deliberately mischievous construct. Anyone from Derry, Belfast etc is factually that so you would have literal minded people of a nationalist/ republican ethos ticking that box as well as drum banging Kyle Lafferty types. There is no way of knowing the proportions making up the overall group and the question was designed to that end. What will ultimately seal the fate of this sectarian statelet is the inability of political unionism to reinvent itself sufficiently to include or attract anyone outside the borders of its own inbred paranoid dystopia.

nail on the head

anyone who thinks a unity referendum is further away after the Census results doesn't understand the North. Not saying it's gonna happen within the next year or two but the identity question in particular, with the Northern Irish option added, highlights the trend. 

But unity will be won not just from counting Catholics in the North. It'll be down to the vision set out for a new Ireland. 


Posted By: horsebox
Date Posted: 23 Sep 2022 at 7:29am
Originally posted by Roberto Baggio Roberto Baggio wrote:

Bryson and Allister and similar bigots have spent the day telling everyone that they have a lot of Catholic friends who are unionist 

Neither have any credibility though.

Allister spent 2 weeks eulogising the Queen but didn't get an invite to the funeral and then a few SF did. Raging LOL


-------------
It was far across the sea,
When the devil got a hold of me,
He wouldn't set me free,
So he kept me soul for ransom.
na na na na na na na na na
na na na na na na na na.
I'm a sailor man from Glasgow to


Posted By: drog addict
Date Posted: 23 Sep 2022 at 8:10am
The more the English/ DUP f**k over the North you'll see many of those who consider themselves Northern Irish (mostly the younger generation with no experience of the troubles) looking south and seeing a better future. Its already in motion. Religious and anti everything bullsh*t from the DUP is not welcome from the more Liberal youth and that will be the game changer.

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Chips don't bounce


Posted By: Deane
Date Posted: 23 Sep 2022 at 9:08am
It will be hard to convince a lot of "middle-ground" people in the North to vote for a UI these days. 

All they will read on the news is Housing Crisis this, Heath care crisis that, self-interested politicians. Although these problems exist in the North and the UK of course but they are seen to not be near as bad.

Brexit and the NI protocol actually benefits businesses that export as well so they would want to keep that, that would probably be part of the UI deal anyway. An arrangement for trade between the UK and the Common Travel area. 

In saying that I do think it will happen, could be another decade though. 

Unionism keeps shooting themselves in the foot and SF are being clever and progressive which is helping matters. 


Posted By: B6 6HE
Date Posted: 23 Sep 2022 at 10:46am
Originally posted by Deane Deane wrote:

It will be hard to convince a lot of "middle-ground" people in the North to vote for a UI these days. 

All they will read on the news is Housing Crisis this, Heath care crisis that, self-interested politicians. Although these problems exist in the North and the UK of course but they are seen to not be near as bad.

Brexit and the NI protocol actually benefits businesses that export as well so they would want to keep that, that would probably be part of the UI deal anyway. An arrangement for trade between the UK and the Common Travel area. 

In saying that I do think it will happen, could be another decade though. 

Unionism keeps shooting themselves in the foot and SF are being clever and progressive which is helping matters. 

It will be decided by economics

Our infrastructure is sh1t. No GDP percentiles hide it.

We still have raw sewage going into sea. WWTPs operate way over capacity.

Our health service is appalling 

Housing

We have a situation where our best and brightest students plan to leave.

We fix that. We can have our UI



Posted By: inlikeflynn
Date Posted: 24 Sep 2022 at 7:33am
Originally posted by t_rAndy t_rAndy wrote:


The public sector is around 30% of direct employment up there. What would be the plan for those jobs, how would they fall under the Irish public sector after they Nexit? How many jobs would need to be replaced and what would they be replaced with?

After a successful Unity referendum, you need to have all the institutions which Northern Ireland currently has separately from England, but separate from Ireland. 

So a Northern Ireland Assembly, Northern Ireland Civil Service, PSNI, school system, legal framework. But you’re sending TDs to Leinster House to influence the operation of that instead of MPs to Westminster.

Reunification will be a slow road and having a border poll, followed by Gardaí on the streets of Belfast and kids doing their leaving cert the next day, won’t work.

I think that legal reunification by referendum in my lifetime is an inevitability, but that a 32 Ireland that looks the same is not. 


Posted By: zizu Kilbane
Date Posted: 24 Sep 2022 at 9:56am
Originally posted by inlikeflynn inlikeflynn wrote:

Originally posted by t_rAndy t_rAndy wrote:


The public sector is around 30% of direct employment up there. What would be the plan for those jobs, how would they fall under the Irish public sector after they Nexit? How many jobs would need to be replaced and what would they be replaced with?

After a successful Unity referendum, you need to have all the institutions which Northern Ireland currently has separately from England, but separate from Ireland. 

So a Northern Ireland Assembly, Northern Ireland Civil Service, PSNI, school system, legal framework. But you’re sending TDs to Leinster House to influence the operation of that instead of MPs to Westminster.

Reunification will be a slow road and having a border poll, followed by Gardaí on the streets of Belfast and kids doing their leaving cert the next day, won’t work.

I think that legal reunification by referendum in my lifetime is an inevitability, but that a 32 Ireland that looks the same is not. 

I think people need to understand that unification will not simply be the 6 counties folding into the Irish State. We will need to build a brand new natio  state from the ground up. That's actually one of the most exciting parts for me. We right so many of the wrongs of this State in the process.

That's why forums like a citizens assembly or new ireland aew vital important because they will flesh out the what the new state would be.


-------------
"Sometimes, sh*t happens, someone's gotta deal with it, and who ya gonna call?"


Posted By: t_rAndy
Date Posted: 24 Sep 2022 at 11:59am
Originally posted by inlikeflynn inlikeflynn wrote:

Originally posted by t_rAndy t_rAndy wrote:


The public sector is around 30% of direct employment up there. What would be the plan for those jobs, how would they fall under the Irish public sector after they Nexit? How many jobs would need to be replaced and what would they be replaced with?

After a successful Unity referendum, you need to have all the institutions which Northern Ireland currently has separately from England, but separate from Ireland. 

So a Northern Ireland Assembly, Northern Ireland Civil Service, PSNI, school system, legal framework. But you’re sending TDs to Leinster House to influence the operation of that instead of MPs to Westminster.

Reunification will be a slow road and having a border poll, followed by Gardaí on the streets of Belfast and kids doing their leaving cert the next day, won’t work.

I think that legal reunification by referendum in my lifetime is an inevitability, but that a 32 Ireland that looks the same is not. 

Yeah true enough. That is probably how it will play out in the end



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