We are guaranteed a play-off so you hope that means we can take more risks.

Our away form is actually not too bad, we are hard to beat. The main problem is beating teams at home.

We need to take 6 points from Georgia and beat one of Switzerland/Denmark at home.

Switzerland are very good in qualifying so I think it’s between us and Denmark.

pre Madonna wrote: Put the mortgage on us being turd.

Fixed

Ah no I am optimistic we can run whoever close for 2nd spot.  We should have points on the board early and momentum on our side. 

I decided to be optimistic and go for 2nd I really think with a good start of hopefully 10 points from the opening 4 games leaves us in a very strong position.

If you look at the average points needed for 2nd place in a 5 team group is 13/14 points. If we get that 10 points would we be capable of getting another win and a draw from the remaining games?

I think so.

Again hopefully the Swiss can beat Denmark in their game, that would coupled with ourselves getting a point in Copenhagen would put them on 4* points and ourselves on 10 (giving that they beat Georgia at home).

Yes we'll have to play Switzerland twice, Georgia away and then Denmark at home but the Danish would have Georgia away and Switzerland at home as well as ourselves away to make up a 6 point gap

Why the optimism? Realistically, third is our level. I'm genuinely at a loss at it. It seems to be solely based on our ability to beat Gibraltar and Georgia.

Totally agree it will come down to our ability to beat denmark or the swiss in of our 4 games against them IF we can do this then we can talk about second because the Danes and the Swiss will.also beat the other 2 teams.

If any team is more likely to slip you against Georgia its us 

DangerHere wrote: Well I am thinking Mick probably has more ideas than "Hoof it out to the wing for McClean to chase" and "put it on Duffy's head" so with that in mind I'd be a lot more confident than before

This.

I also can't see Mick going with a right back in centre midfield

I have no doubt we will improve under Mick, but improving enough in the time space involved, in international football, is almost unheard of.

Denmark strolled through two games with us asleep and we couldn't lay a glove on them. They have a brilliant defence, goalkeeper and midfield, as well as a couple of lads with pace.

Switzerland are a very well organised, technically capable side with players spread across Europe's top leagues and an unbelievable talent in Shaqiri who seems to perform better in international football.

I know people think I am just negative, but nobody seems to stop and assess the situation objectively.

We will need to beat one of Switzerland and Denmark at least once and can only afford to lose one, drawing the others. We would need a mountain of luck the size of the Matterhorn for that to happen.

TBH if l look at Denmark record against Eastern Bloc countries it doens't make for good reading against them.

They have struggled to break down teams at times relying heavily on Christian Eriksen in the last few years to unlock teams.

As we showed under MON bar that one game if you are resolute then you can frustrate them and get points off them.

Would I be happy with four boring 0-0's against both games with them, If it helps us qualify then YES!!

And bar the one game were we gave Eriksen the freedom of Dublin did they actually score against us. I can't see us doing that again.

I don't buy that they have a better defense then us, equal perhaps but not better

Their defense against us in Dublin last time out was Dalsgaard, Kjaer, Jorgensen, Stryger Larsen

That is one Championship, one lower PL defender, one lower Serie A and Kjaer being the exception

Our strongest back 4 contains 3 mid/lower PL players.

Schmeichel I'll agree is better then Randolph but the only member of their back 4 I'd 100% want would be Kjaer

.....Preparing myself now for a PM backlash

McCarthy hasn't played in over two years. There has also been questions about his application. His standout performances have been few and far between. There is no doubting he is capable, but I would have huge doubts about him ever showing it again for us.

I think my views on Arter's ability are known. I used to think he wasn't interested, I have since realised he just isn't very good.

Browne and Hourihane both give the ball away a lot in the Championship. I know the latter's passing statistics are quite good, but I have watched Villa's last three games and he can be very sloppy in possession and at important times. I would love the two Cork lads to be of the required standard but they are not. 

As much as I have admired and respected Whelan's contributions 

to the Irish team, the fact he is even being seriously mentioned shows our limitations in this area. We don't have players who can retain possession in key areas and at key times, we don't have anybody who can play defence splitting passes. We have limited journeymen, many with poor technique that we expect to compete with talented players playing for some of the biggest teams in Europe's best leagues.

The Swiss and Danes have both screwed up in the past out in Georgia. However this time I think the Danes are a more likely to slip up than the quietly efficient Swiss.

They have a genuine top class goalkeeper and a brilliant leader in Kjaer. Two things we are lacking.

I do agree that we can be well organised and difficult to beat, but how are we going to beat anybody? Even with a decent defence, which I think we have, it is very difficult to stop good teams from scoring when they will have close to two-thirds of the ball. Denmark weren't arsed about scoring in the last two games and I would always argue, and so would Hareide, that a scoreless draw at home in a two-legged tie is a good result, especially against a side that doesn't score many. I think that if we had played Denmark in a must win game they would have won.

For us to sneak into second, we're probably going to have beat one of them at least once.

As I said I agree, in the last game in Aarhus Denmark weren't arsed(neither did we mind) which is why I went with the lineup against us in Dublin in Nations League only one team did look like winning that but even then the Danes only had one real chance which was the Kjaer header cleared off the line.

As I said above the Danish have struggled to break teams down who are resolute in defense. We showed that in Copenhagen and Aarhus and during the World Cup they struggled against Australia and Peru.

I really think we McCarthy has us playing with am actually game plan we can take points off them.

Or two draws maybe? We would need to take advantage of that though by beating one of them

or two draws as long as we beat one of them at home 

The Danes have lost more qualifiers than us in the last two campaigns

4 compared to our 3

2 defeats would be a disaster for either side, and would give us a great chance of second spot. We could draw our way to qualification 

We're probably going to have to beat one of them somewhere anyway, either home or way. Two wins would be fantastic and leave us in a great position (but is a huge ask of course)

We may well take a point off them, maybe two, but that is very unlikely to be of much use.

Denmrk surely do from the last campaign. They struggled a little in Tblisi too if i remember correctly. 

We need to create to score...

Denmark didn't play Georgia in the last campaign, they weren't in our group. 

Funny how they didn't actually play Georgia in the last campaign

When did Denmark last play them in a qualifier?

I am after getting horrendously mixed up 

I am after getting horrendously mixed up. They did draw 2-2 with them at some point a few years back

Edit see below post turns out they played them in 2006 qualifiers

winning once 6-1 in Denmark but then 2-2 in Tbilisi

From my research they have played them once in a friendly in 2005 in Aalborg it finished 2-1 to Denmark

They have played Switzerland twice in friendlies and lost both albeit the last one was in 1924.

Switzerland played Georgia in 2004 qualifying

 won 4-1 in Basel drew 0-0 in Tbilisi

 

2004 and it was a draw in Tbilisi. The Swiss drew with Georgia in Tbilisi in 2002.

None of the current players would have been involved. 

The Danes are a fairly cocky bunch, would love to see them underestimate Georgia. 

This Swiss will be too clever for slip ups like that I fear.

Agreed, I think the Swiss will take close to full points (dropping points to us in Dublin and Basel )

Sommer is a quality keeper

Akanji, Schar,Elvedi are all very good defenders comfortable on the ball

Left back they have Ricardo Rodriquez

Mbabu at right back is a great talent (Why Newcastle let him go i'll never know), not sure if Lichtsteiner is still about but if he is he's a very good attacking option have defense.

In midfield Xhaka is a tough tackling but again capable on the ball midfielder

Zakaria like wise is a real talent

Zuber is no slouch

Shaqiri on his day can be World Class

Embolo has pace to burn

Seferovic can be hot or cold but is very capable of nicking a goal with the right service

 

I'm aware of that.

 

My point is that they are no better now than they were back then. The way some people are talking you'd swear the Danes and Swiss are far too professional to slip up in Tbilisi. Far from it as history suggests.

 

We need to rid ourselves of this defeatist attitude and instead be the one's who clinically dispatch Georgia. Lets not be one's looking for favours.

 

 

Recently destroyed Belgium (world number 1) in their Nations League game

 

After losing to Qatar a few days earlier. They'll take points off Denmark because they love playing big teams, and drop points to Georgia

RIGGGGGGGGGGGEDD!!! 

That Qatar result, in a completely meaningless game, is exactly why I think we will batter them home and away.

Roberto Martinez.

Euro 2012

Losers 

Denmark and Switzerland won't be worried about us. 

The Norths performance will give us hope and us against Denmark in Copenhagen for the 1st leg of the playoff. Yes we didn't create but they were piss poor also. Destroyed in Dublin to be fair but that's another story. 

I'm hoping Mick can nullify Eriksen and we can actually create something. 

MON couldn't figure it out but we need to win our home matches. We seemed to play with fear at the Aviva and that hindered us. Maybe the lads were terrified as they had no prep and no tactics. 

We have the easiest start possible and we should have at least 9 points and a few games under out belts before we play the best team in the group. 

Luck has defo played its part. 

Aim for 3rd - expectation 

Get 2nd - bonus ground 

Just want to see us play better and have an identity as I have said previously. 

Go for it at home and have more than 5 passes in a row. 

Exactly. Denmark and Switzerland have shown they are very competent 2nd tier European teams, and we are well crap. Those recent games against Denmark, they didn't seem to bothered competing.

I'm just hoping Mick can make us play a lot better than the 10 years of pain we have been served. And he has a year to get ready for a play off Nations League game

110% HB

plus a cracking trip to Bilbao if we qualify 

You're some republican!

If we qualify from Group D (as opposed to via the playoffs) we have a 50% chance of the Spain game being in Dublin.  

Note I am assuming the chances of Spain not qualifying directly at 0% above. 

thought we will play 2 games in Dublin and 1 game in Bilbao Gary. thought that was pretty much guaranteed 

If both qualify automatically from their qualifying  groups there's a draw to see who gets home advantage in the match between the two teams

 

Our group, all matches will be played in Bilbao or Dublin. So 2 matches per match day. The match day where we would have to play Spain, one of us would obviously need to travel.

I think if Spain and Ireland both qualify, they would do a draw to say which team gets the 3rd game at home. For example:

 

 

Clearly didn't get my point. 

I think you go out to win the group but let's be realistic as well. 

Maybe aim was the wrong word but people are expecting us to come 3rd. That's why we are 3rd seeds. 

2nd is bonus territory.

Wait, so if two hosts sharing a group qualify but one comes through the playoffs, they automatically have to play the other host away? It's only if they both qualify automatically that there's a draw?

That sucks a bit but I see the rationale behind it.

Didn't think it mattered how you qualified. On uefa it doesn't mention anything about how you qualified:

"19.03 The first-named team is considered as the home team for administrative purposes. Host association teams are entitled to play a minimum of two group matches at home. If both hosts within one group qualify directly, a draw will decide which team will play three matches at home"

https://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/uefaorg/Regulations/02/54/36/05/2543605_DOWNLOAD.pdf" rel="nofollow - https://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/uefaorg/Regulations/02/54/36/05/2543605_DOWNLOAD.pdf

Seems *directly* means other than through the playoffs. The draw for the finals actually takes place before the playoffs.

would that have been 2 months after Portugal winning the Euros? Sounds like an awful time to have played them so

Since 2004 the Swiz have qualified for 4 consecutive world cups and 3/4 European championships. They are very consistent in qualifying and go about it quietly. If anything I would say they are underrated. 

I’d they played Belgium another 5 times I’d doubt they’d win by more than a couple of goals and would loose more than they’d win.

If they played TE another 5 times they’d probably go unbeaten winning most (without conceding:) )

They are a much better team than us at the minute but are not world beaters. We don’t play them for almost a year and we have lots of room to improve. Not sure then have.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2020#Group_E" rel="nofollow - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2020#Group_E

No Spain and Ireland both get 2 at home and 1 away, the only draw that would be needed would be to see if we play Spain in Dublin or Bilbao. If we were to play them in Dublin, we'd have Sweden/Czech in Bilbao (in your example).

No chance we get all 3 at home.

Yeah defo...I heard somewhere that this would be the last game but i'm unsure. If so they might have already qualified which would be good or needing a win in the final game against them with them needing something also would be a disaster

Ah I see. I thought the guaranteed thing and mention of a draw for the direct match between the 2 meant one team could get 3. But now I get you and it's more fair that way. 

Also think it would be good not to play all games in dublin. Probably harder to get tickets than Bilbao!

 

No and no

Yes the rule states a minimum of 2 games one country may play at home, you may play 3 depending on a draw done by UEFA

Like the other poster states

No, Czech Republic and Sweden were used as an example

We would have Spain though as we are grouped with Bilbao

Each Group has two venues

    Group A: Rome (Italy) and Baku (Azerbaijan)
    Group B: Saint Petersburg (Russia) and Copenhagen (Denmark)
    Group C: Amsterdam (Netherlands) and Bucharest (Romania)
    Group D: London (England) and Glasgow (Scotland)
    Group E: Bilbao (Spain) and Dublin (Republic of Ireland)
    Group F: Munich (Germany) and Budapest (Hungary)

 

Ok yeah just tried to work out if there was any way 2 teams could both get at least 2 games and only 2 games at home but doesn't seem to be a combination of that.

So yes think it's one team will get 2 at home but then the other will get 3

 

 

There is no thinking about it that's what will happen

Yes never mind

 

Round1

Eh, Ireland are in Dublin three times there?

There is no way to make it work where:

Spain are at home 2/3 but not 3/3

Ireland are at home 2/3 but not 3/3

Neither stadium is used twice for one pair of fixtures

The maths simply do not work for that. Ever. It is always the case that one team plays three matches in one venue and the other three teams play two matches in the other venue and the third match in the first venue against the first team.

Look at Euro 2012: Spain played all their matches in Gdansk and we played two in Poznan, one in Gdansk. Same as Italy, same as Croatia. If we had played Spain in Poznan and Italy and Croatia had played each other in Gdansk, then the other three teams would have played 2/3 in Gdansk and we'd have had three in Poznan. It simply can't work any other way where you have two stadiums, three match days and one game per matchday in each stadium.

We would be punching above our weight if we beat Sweden

We have a minimum of 2 home game sif we qualify. If Spain and ourselves qualify via this phase then we draw lots for the 3rd home fixture.

However if we qualify via the 2020 playoffs we play Spain in Bilbao.  If 2 hosts end up in the same playoffs UEFA have allowed for a redraw of the finals.  

That's it clarified, thank you.

We have always been very good at drawing lots.

Not Gibralter