Anyway, it all starts tonight with Sunderland vs Derby and Forest hosting Millwall due to Trent Bridge being used tomorrow. While there is a clear gap between the haves and have-nots, it is still very hard to predict who will go up, especially as only one of the three who came down look like being involved in the promotion battle.
Boro are those best placed to bounce back and are the bookies favourites, although I have to confess that I don't really understand why. Garry Monk is vastly overrated and benefits greatly from his media perception and I don't think he has bought very well. Assombalonga will score goals but his all round play has deteriorated, he has lost a yard of pace, while Bamford is proven at this level his form has been poor for a while and the rest of their signings and starting eleven don't strike me as being good enough to warrant the tag.
I think Wednesday are the best bet at 10-1. In Lees and Loovens they have the best central defence in the division with Westwood, the best keeper, behind. They have plenty of goal threat too, with Rhodes Winnall, Hooper, Forestieri and plenty of experienced midfielders behind. The only issue is the lack of depth at the back.
I fancy Villa and Norwich to battle them for automatic promotion. Villa have an exceptionally strong squad full of experience and an experienced manager. I can't see them conceding many, the doubts will over attacking players like Hogan and Hourihane showing the form that they bought them for and Grealish fulfilling his promise. Even if they fail though, Kodija could win them enough tight games to keep them in the hunt.
Norwich have gone the Huddersfield route and brought in a highly thought of German manager in Daniel Farke. He still has a core of the squad that played in the EPL and has loads of creative talent in Hoolahan, Pritchard, Wildschut, Maddison and a fine, if temperamental, striker in Oliveira. Doubts remain defensively though.
1. Wednesday
2. Villa
3. Norwich
4. Boro
5. Reading- seem to have kept much of the same team as last season and , more importantly, Jaap Stam.
6. Wolves- They could end up anywhere really! Playoffs is probably the most likely.
7. Brentford - An astute manager, a decent squad and in Jota they have a quality player.
At the bottom QPR are certainties. Holloway is out of his depth, the club is still recovering from the financial mismanagement of their relegation and they seem to be this season's Blackburn.
Birmingham are another basket-case of a club, getting 'arry involved never strikes me as a good idea. I expect him to f**k off in January having signed a group of forty-year-olds, on three year deals, in January.
Millwall are very limited and none of the players brought in have really improved the squad, I can see them joining them.
I am surprised the bookies have Burton favourites to go down, they have strengthened from last year and have better teams and stability than the three mentioned, as well as the likes of Bolton and Bristol City, the latter seem to be placing all their survival hopes on a 5 million pound signing from Angers, although the last one didn't do too bad! I think Bolton will be saved by the ineptitude of the other three.
Keep an eye for Ipswich here, if the listen to their fans and sack the Mac, they will end up going down. If they keep him they will finish about 18th.
Barnsley have signed well, McGeehan and Lindsay in particular, once their awful run of form doesn't come at the start, they will be fine.
22. Millwall
23. Birmingham
24. QPR.
League one is even harder as there are fewer sleeping giants down here and those that are have either just been promoted from below or have questionable managers!
Wigan, Blackburn and Portsmouth are all being tipped to be there or thereabouts, but I wouldn't give the first one much of a hope. Paul Cook should have walked the fourth division with Pompey, instead it took him to the last day, and he already seems to be alienating people at Wigan. By the time they sack him it will be too late.
The atmosphere is still toxic at Blackburn and I am not sure Mowbray will handle the pressure, they need to start the season well as even one bad result will add to the tension there from Venky's. Whittingham and Dack are two very good signings and they have kept the bulk of their better performers. If Mowbray can handle expectation they will do ok.
Pompey have brought in a better manager and have a decent side but have brought in no big signings and have lost Enda Stevens. The recent takeover might mean that changes before the end of the month.
I think Bradford and S****horpe will definitely be there or thereabouts, they have been for the last couple of years and both have decent managers with the fans backing. They also seem to have improved their squads with clever signings, including S****horpe taking McArdle from Bradford. At 12/1 and 16/1, both are worth a bet.
1. Bradford
2. Blackburn
3. S****horpe
4. Fleetwood
5. Pompey
6. Southend
7. Wigan
Anything can happen at the bottom, but I expect those clubs that have been badly run to struggle. Bristol Rovers and Wimbledon may struggle too.
21. Rotherham - Could be difficult to recover from last season.
22. Walsall- Starting the season with a manager the fans hate cannot end well.
23. Blackpool- Was amazed they went up and the Oyston saga continues.
24. Gillingham- Survived on the final day last year, they then sell their two stars without replacing them.
I'll keep League 2 short! I think the top 2, in whatever order, are nailed on.
1. Luton- They have to go up this year. This may have been said last year.
2. Mansfield- Steve Evans is a ****, but he is an excellent manager at this level and has signed well.
3. Coventry- Despite the SISU situation, Mark Robins has got the feel-good factor back.
4. Lincoln- Momentum can go a long way in a tight league.
5. Wycombe- Playing horrible football under a horrible manager.
6. Cambridge- Hope more than realism. Lots of ins and outs, not sure if the team has improved.
7. Notts County- Kevin Nolan seems to know what he is doing, I think they will surprise a few.
23. Crawley- Harry Kewell isn't who you want in a fight to stay in the league.
24. Yeovil- Losing key players to other relegation rivals says it all.