Mine for tomorrow

 

Sizing Europe 9/4 - €5 Win
Ringtheboss 10/1 - €2 E/W

Is it really a year already since last year's Cheltenham Festival? Where has the time gone?. Whilst it is unlikely that I can match last year's results as there are more races this year where I don't see the quality or the value I would still expect to get four winners from the twenty five races,even if I won't be betting on the Gold Cup.After all, why bother betting when the battle between the main two gladiators will be enjoyment enough.

2.00 Supreme Novices Hurdle


When you consider that last season we had a favourite for this race who went off at around the 2/1 mark, it shows that we have a bunch of novice hurdlers that are all within a few pounds of each other when the bookies are going 7/1 the field for this year’s renewal. The indication I get from that is that there is no superstar awaiting in the field but even still there has to be a winner and I am sure that there is still plenty of value in this race and backing one in particular at a nice double figure price should help get the meeting off to a tremendous start.

First of all let’s start by looking at the ones I can’t have on my radar first, based around a mixture of stats and form lines. I can’t have the Paul Nicholls 1st string Rippling Ring at any price. Yes, he passes the stat test as a lightly(less than three runs over hurdles) raced hurdler and he is the right age but I can’t have a horse who won a Novice hurdle from a winner of a seller on the Flat and whom the 5th home won a Selling Handicap next time out as being good enough to contest in such a race as this and I can’t see him even placing to be honest. So having knocked him out of the field, we can also disregard Muirhead from the reckoning as well. After all, doesn’t Noel Meade every year say the same thing about his current star novice hurdler being the “best I have ever trained” and yet he hasn’t been anywhere near as ebullient as he usually does about this one. Whilst his absence of 100 days can partly be explained by the Meade stable being shut down for a period because of a loss of form and illness in the yard, I would still have preferred to have seen some confidence from the trainer before parting with my hard earned dough. Also, the trainer has a pretty awful record with Novice’s round here at the Festival so again, he can be opposed readily at the prices currently available in the village.

Captain Cee Bee could be anything ,having been kept back for this by his trainer, however I find it crazy that if A P McCoy had been given a choice between this one and Nicky Henderson’s Binocular that he wouldn’t choose this one
Instead.Fails the stats test on age as he is a year too old for most previous winners but whereas the other two are definite oppose material I would not get too involved either way with this one. If he wins I might feel a tad pissed off not having backed him but will just remember that there are 24 raced left to get the profit I would have done backing Captain Cee Bee in the first. Also cant have Binocular as this looks an afterthought and the yard have multiple entries in the race which indicates to me that they don’t have one star and are being scattergun in their approach to see if one of the darts hits the bulls eye. This is also the reason why I wont be betting Khyber Kim( fails on the last time out win stats) or Sentry Duty(trainer doesn’t do well in this race).


So, having had so many negatives in the race, what have I decided to back here?. Despite being against Rippling Ring, I do feel that trainer Paul Nicholls does actually target this race nowadays with at least one of his better novice hurdles that will go on to make a cracking chaser in time, and with that in mind I have to back his supposed 2nd string Pasco who is still available at 16/1 which is cracking each value in my opinion. Having watched his thee runs in the UK so far he looks like a horse who has improved with each run(and with racing as well) and jumped the best he has done so far on his last run. Yes, the form of that win might well be nothing special but this race is a little bit down on the normal standard of a Supreme Novices in my opinion and his form stands up to as much inspection as the rest of them and yet is almost double the price of the main protagonists. Won’t mind it of the ground rides on the good to soft side for the first tomorrow and I see him in the same vein as Noland and Granit Jack who was 2nd for the stable last year. Anyone remember what won last year’s race lol?. So ,with a 1pt e/w bet on him at 16/1 that would appear to be my only bet for that race to get the greatest sporting event in the world off to a winning start.


2.35 Arkle Trophy


Another race where I have to oppose the short priced favourite in Noland. The reasons being quite simple. I can see his jumping being too over exuberant for Cheltenham’s stiff fences and whilst he won’t hit any and keel over I can see him possibly losing his footing when landing and losing all momentum at a vital stage. He also lacks enough experience for me over fences, having had only two races so far after his year off. There is also the factor that the owner didn’t want him to run at Cheltenham but appears to have been overruled by the trainer in this matter. The owner might not know horses in the same intimate way that a trainer does but his gut feeling may well be proven correct tomorrow and I just hope that the Hales get the horse home safe and sound after the race and have a horse to go to war with next season once he has had more experience of fences.

Second favourite Tidal Bay is highly rated by some shrewd experts in the game and whilst they have forgotten more about this game than I will ever know, I still can’t get out of my head the poor form of the Howard Johnson yard and the fact the trainer was very unconfident in today’s Racing Post about the general well-being of his string and it is for that reason alone I wish to take him on at the prices available.

The one I shall be betting here then is the Charlie Mann trained Moon Over Miami who at the prices available as I write this, is currently 20/1 in places but even at Coral’s 16/1 he rates value. I really don’t see what else the horse has to do to be taken seriously by the majority of punters in the previews. Two from two at Cheltenham, so we know he handles the track(which may well be a hindrance to some in the field),is a stone better according to his trainer going left handed like he encounters today, and forgive him his last run as it came after a long-ish break for him which would explain why he was so wound up with the lengthy delay to the start of the race. With that run behind him, he should be better suited to the race today, and although one judge intimated to me that if he hears Charlie Mann had trained a winner at the Festival he would check the news reports to see if there were reports of pigs flying over Prestbury Park as he has yet to get off the mark here I still wouldn’t let that put me off and I shall have 1pt e/w on Moon Over Miami as it is the only value left in the market and the best of his form so far puts him in with as much of chance as some shorter priced individuals, including a raiding party from across the Irish Sea who don’t look up to the job here.


3.15 Champion Hurdle

The big one for day one and the race in which my NAP of the meeting runs. Yes, you read it right. The horse I consider THE Best bet of the entire meeting runs in this race, although I won’t be actually betting him tomorrow. The reason for not betting him on the day of the race is that I already have more than enough Ante-Post wagers on him dating back to September that I don’t need any more on him for him to make a small fortune. Before I reveal who I believe WILL Win the race, let me make a case for not backing the main protagonists.

Sizing Europe beat absolute second raters in the Greatwood, Hurdle in my opinion ,and whilst he did win the AIG in easy style last time out, I question exactly what level of form he needed to beat a horse who may be now on the downgrade in Hardy Eustace, and whether it is good enough to win a Champion Hurdle. Personally I would say if you have nice ante-post vouchers at big prices then fair play to you but I can’t entertain him at current odds.

Neither can I have Osana,given that he couldn’t win last years Country Hurdle so what makes people think he has suddenly improved so much that he will be able to win a Grade 1 today. In the Bula, he got a massive lead early and beating Katchit( I don’t rate him at all irrespective of the stat about five year olds not winning this race) and a half fit Sublimity doesn’t look good enough form on the book for me to get involved today. As with Sizing Europe, if you got on Osans at massive prices( I know one person who has 100/1 on him to small stakes) then you have a cracking bet that surely you will have traded out of by now for a guaranteed profit but not one to get involved in at such short odds to these eyes. So with Katchit, Osana and Sizing Europe all on the negative side for me, can I find any others to knock out? Harchibald couldn’t do it when at the peak of his fitness so why should we expect him to do it now?. Stupid price in my opinion as he needs a flat track to be seen at his best and will flatter going up the hill and anyone backing him tomorrow has to bet him on Betfair so they can trade out of his when he looks like he might do it turning in to the straight. Catch Me doesn’t look up to this class so far in his career and don’t read too much into the fact that Ruby Walsh rides this rather than Willie Mullins horse as he was never going to ride that one

Mention of Willie Mullins’ runner takes me nicely onto the Best Bet of the meeting. I am firmly in the camp that argues a case for saying Ebazyian WILL not be beaten tomorrow and I cannot hear of defeat for him as he finally gets his ideal conditions for only the second time this year. Namely, he has to have a big field to be seen at his best as shown by his record when racing in fields of 12 runners or more of: 221812111(5-9) as opposed to :0845345(0-7) in fields of 11 or less runners. He had his conditions when running out an impressive winner of the Supreme Novices last season ,and it took Willie Mullins a couple of runs this season to realise that he just doesn’t like the Somme like conditions that the Irish trials tend to be run in as the pace tends to be pedestrian at times early on which doesn’t help Ebazyian settle the same as he does in big fields where he can settle better, jump better and then making his run in between the last flights between horses. I do think he is a bit like Harchibald in as much as he has to hit the front as late as possible ,but he has far more resolution in his left hoof than that nutcase. Expect Davy Condon to produce him approaching the last and let the horse use his stamina to outstay the rest of the field up the famous hill to another famous win for his trainer here to add to his ten previous wins here)


4.00 William Hill Trophy

Now we really get down to the nitty gritty with a tasty looking handicap after the three Group 1 races and one horse stands out like a beacon here. I have already backed L’Ami and Monkerhostin at the last two Festivals in the Gold Cup and I just can’t have them at such short prices in this race as they seemed on the downgrade this year, and whilst this year’s renewal may not lack the class of perhaps previous years, I cannot have Monkerhostin as horses don’t win Cheltenham Festival handicaps off 11st10lbs.He may run on for a place but whether or not he wins is debatable giving that he is giving away such lumps of weight. L’Ami hasn’t won for over three years, and again might run into a place but far too short to get involved in win betting with. If the blinkers make as much assistance to An Accordion second time around then he could well be a well handicapped individual based on his win in the Racing Post Chase but the fences at Doncaster don’t take half as much jumping as the ones here at Prestbury Park do. Therefore, I am willing to let him go un-backed, although in running players may well want to get involved after seeing how he takes the first few fences.

The one I see as being the best value, is probably the price he is because the stable haven’t been in tremendous form this season, and the stable jockey rides another in the race, but for me Bob Hall looks primed to run a big race tomorrow for Jonjo O’Neill and at 20/1 with the sponsors he just has to be bet tomorrow with 1pt e/w being staked on him. His best run this season came on his seasonal bow behind Knowhere over 2m5f when just touched off and he ran a cracker in last year’s Jewson when just being run out of it by L’Antartique after jumping the last fence just behind that rival. Kept fresh for this, after two subsequent uninspiring runs when the stable were out of form ,he has stamina questions in the mind of some to answer but I am not so sure that will be as much of a question tomorrow and at the price that he is available at I feel it is enticing enough to take the chance on.


4.40 Cross Country Race


Now we come to the race some pundits will re-name the “Making a cup of tea” race as there s plenty of time for punters watching this on television in the house to make a cup of tea and they will still not be anywhere near the finish of the race. As such, it will be a race where I won’t risk as much of the bank as the other races tomorrow but will just have a 0.5pt each way bet on the winner two years ago Native Jack returning to form under the jockey who rode him that day Davy Russell who rides him for the first time since that win here. He finished tailed off last year behind Heads On The Ground but did make mistakes at vital stages of that race ,and is also nearly two stone better off with last year’s winner Heads On The Ground this time around. It is only a speculative punt but at the prices going around /I am willing to risk a small amount of the bank that the jockey can hunt him round and run into a place.


5.20


A bit of nightmare for punters here as the top weight could easily outclass the lot of them landing the Sunderland’s’ double in the process but if you didn’t take the 8/1 available prior to the Imperial Cup then would you take 11/4(best price ) now?. Just three days after that run at Sandown, and carrying top weight of 11-12.Not for me, I am afraid but fair play to Johnson and Pipe for attempting it. Take him out of the equation however, and where do you start looking for the value. Again, not splashing the same stake as I have on the first four races on this one but at 50/1 I will risk 0.5pt on a Cheltenham legend as a jockey returning and winning as a trainer for the first time in Jim Culloty with Western Point who was trained in this country on the flat by Sir Mark Prescott .The horse passes a couple of stats in as much as he won at 12f and raced at 1m6f as well(Beaten at Musselburgh over 1m6f),and also that he has had the requisite three runs for a handicap mark. He has experience of big fields having won last time out ,by seven lengths, in a race of twenty runners, and has a jockey who I rate on prominent racers in Tom Doyle so may well make all here. At the prices, he looks the only value in a race that looks a minefield for punters.

So to recap,

1pt e/w Pasco @ 18/1( Corals)
1pt e/w Moon Over Miami @ 16/1 ( Corals)
1pt e/w Bob Hall @ 20/1( William Hills)
0.5pt e/w Native Jack @ 33/1( general)
0.5pt e/w Western Point @ 50/1(general)

0.25pt e/w Lucky 15:

Pasco
Moon Over Miami
Ebazyian
Bob Hall


Best of luck with whatever you bet tomorrow and may all the horses come home safe and sound to live another day..[/quote

 

1st 3 Captain Cee Bee
2nd 22 Binocular
3rd 16 Snap Tie

 

He actually himmed and hawned about backing captain cee bee but the odds were too short

 

1	13	Tidal Bay	6/1	Denis O'Regan	J Howard Johnson
2	14	Kruguyrova	9/1	A P McCoy	C Egerton
3	7	Noland	7/4f	R Walsh	P Nicholls

 

3rd RM

3:15 Chelt

Blythe Knight e/w @ 50-1

 

Have a Double on aswell

 

3;15 Chelt sizing europe

4:00 Ofarel diary

 

 

 

katchit

osana

punjabi

 

Well, day two awaits of the Festival and still the search for the 1st winner so far goes on. The major positive I can pull from today’s results is that I can’t possibly be as out of touch on Day 2 as I was on Day 1. I will be attempting a more scattergun approach with the Coral Cup and National Hunt Chase by betting three each way to small stakes(0.5pt e/w) on both races whilst also sticking the same stake on for the Bumper on a big priced runner. The remaining seven points from my fourteen points staked today(No multiple today) will come from the first three races where the winners look slightly easier to find, especially the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

2.00 Ballymore Propeties Hurdle

With the Nicholls team drawing a blank today, and Ruby riding one for Willie Mullins, I can’t have Breedsbreeze on my shortlist for this, and the Mullins runner FiveForThree whilst highly rated by some is also another I feel doesn’t have the profile of a horse who should be so short in the betting.

Nicky Henderson is a trainer who also doesn’t have a great record in this race so not to sure why Aigle D’Or is currently 11/2 when he won at Cheltenham last time out from rivals who are at least a couple of points bigger in the betting than he is. In fact, given that he was receiving 3lbs from the Nigel Twiston Davies trained Razor Royale that day, and yet that rival is 25/1 when he gets the weight turnaround here I know exactly where the value lies in this race.

I was most taken by the performance of Razor Royale when winning at Cheltenham on his hurdling debut in November over this course and distance. Yes, he fluffed the last hurdle but it was his move on the outside of the field to take him clear of his field coming into the straight that impressed me most. He has been rested since that last run here and connections try him in a tongue tie which should mean he doesn’t falter when the pressure is applied in the closing stages this time, as he does travel very very well in his races He also handles cut in the ground, and if kept to the outside of the field I can see him make that sweeping run coming into the straight and at the very least make the frame which at his price still leaves a nice profit from the place part of the bet which will be 1pt each way at the 28/1 Corals currently go.


2.35 Royal & Sun Alliance Chase.

In this race I will be backing two horses with the main one a 1pt e/w bet and the second a .5pt e/w bet at double the odds of the first one.


For starters I have to take on Alberta’s Run for two reasons. First one is the stable form which is still pretty ropey(Won’t stop me backing two of their runners later in the day but more of that in a little while),and also I wasn’t that impressed with his attitude at Ascot when he won the Reynoldstown Chase last time out. I feel he got the run of the race by everything up front going far too fast and he landed with the race in his lap despite not jumping or travelling well enough in my opinion. The terrible run of the Reynoldstown winners running in this race is also another negative to take into account with this one and at current odds of around 9/2 I have to be against him.

Given the awful record of Charlie Mann’s runners at the Festival is a factor to consider when looking at the chances of Air Force One, and two wins in lowly company does nothing to recommend his chances either to me. Beaten both times he has raced in this type of grade over fences ,I am yet to be convinced of his abilities to jump these stiff fences and he is also one to swerve big style in my opinion.

Jumping these fences, however, is not a problem to my main bet in the race at a ridiculous 12/1(providing Ladbrokes go it in the morning when they open for business in the shops) that is available on two time course winner Joe Lively. Proven around the course here, stays well, far better racing this way round that the right handed track of Ascot he ran at last time out. Even though he won at Right Handed Kempton at Christmas, he didn’t jump with his usual fluency there, and was far more foot perfect here on the second of his two wins over course and distance. If he was coming here straight from his last win at Christmas then I am certain he would be clear favourite in a race that looks to be of the usual mixture of class for a Sun Alliance as in not as good as it used to be!. 12/1 is an insult to the horses chances to these eyes and must be backed accordingly, even if that is just to 1pt e/w as I cannot see him not being in the frame here and therefore we should collect again from at the very least the place portion of the bet.


For a far more speculative punt in the race, it might be worth risking 0.5pts e/w on Carl Llewellyn’s Roll Along. He looked a potential star when winning here over hurdles about eighteen months ago, but his legs haven’t taken much racing in recent times. He has raced twice over fences so far this season, winning once(albeit gifted it by his main rivals failing to complete the course) and just being touched of by a rejuvenated animal from Alan King’s yard when some questioned his attitude in not going by. It is true to say that his results don’t match the natural ability he has but at the price he is worth taking a chance on to small stakes for me.



3.15 Queen Mother Champion Chase

Quite what Paul Nicholls is doing running either Master Minded or Twist Magic in this is beyond me. Neither have the class needed for this with Master Minded a flat track bully and Twist Magic just not up to this grade in my opinion. There can only be one bet in this race, especially since Corals go a standout 100/30 Voy Pur Ustedes which looks like candy from a baby.

A winner at the last two festvials,including this race last season, he faced a difficult task giving weight away to Master Minded on a track that suited that horse far better last time out, and is better off at the weights with that rival here over a track that suits him better now. With trainer Alan King already on the board already after Katchit’s win in the Champion Hurdle, and Choc Thornton leading the top jockey tables with two wins already I fully expect Voy Pur to win this without too much hassle and seriously doubt that the 100/30 will even still be there tonight never mind first thing tomorrow morning. The Nicholls are 10/1 and 16/1 shots in my book and must both be opposed big style here. Not much else to say here but Tamarinbleu should run him a close second with one of the outsiders running into the third place spot.



4.00 Coral Cup

The most competitive betting race over hurdles of the whole festival with perhaps the exception of the County Hurdle getting out stakes on Friday, and I will take a low key approach to it by backing three each way at big prices against the relatively short priced favourite Leg Spinner.

Firstly, I was very sweet on the chances of Noel Chance’s Mendo until I saw the jockey booking. Tom Sidall?.. I wasn’t even aware he was still riding over jumps anymore!. Pity that the jockey booking isn’t quite a bit stronger as I would have fancied him stronger based around his run when winning here on Greatwood Hurdle day from Vale of Avoccia(guess what one I backed!) where he travelled well on the outside of the field, jumped well in the main and made his move coming into the straight travelling well. His next run wasn’t as good when making his chase debut and falling, but back to hurdles at Sandown last time he ran well enough when finishing fifth(promoted to fourth) behind The Tother One. As I said, the jockey booking does negate some of the confidence I have in the horse’s chance but proven round here already, and proven on the ground as well he rates a nice little 25/1 shot to go to war with.

The second selection in the race comes from the yard of Noel Meade who race Orbit O Gold whom I backed in last years Supreme Novices which he faded badly after the second last in to finish midfield. Placed in two big field flat handicaps last back end(Irish November Handicap and Cesarewtch), he has cheek pieces on and with stable jockey Paul Carberry on board, I don’t think he is entirely out of the reckoning if the ground doesn’t get any worse over night. Raced in that Great wood hurdle won by Sizing Europe from Osana he didn’t handle the ground conditions(which were worse than they are at this meeting) but was staying on at the death to these eyes. Again, a speculative punt but at 40/1 with Ladbrokes I feel it is worth risking 0.5pt each way on.

The final one, is a completely crazy bet, and one that may prove I have finally lost my marbles this week. It is Tagula Blue from the Ian Williams yard. A Grade 2 winner over 2m from Moon Over Miami at Ascot back in December 2006, he was spotted in eye catching fashion running on over 2m behind Jack The Giant here last December and he would have needed his last run at Hereford carrying 11-11 behind Oh Crick. Although no form to indicate that he stays 2m5f, I take the chance based on that Jack The Giant run that he handles the track ok and therefore if staying on then he may well run into a place and at 80/1 with four places up for grabs he is a nice price if doing so.
__________________
"If Winning Isn't Everything,Then Why Do They Keep Score"-Vince Lombardi..

#38
Today, 11:48 PM
Trainbairn
Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 2,127


4.40 National Hunt Chase

With a 4m Novice chase not being the most common race in the race calendar elsewhere than the festival, it is unlikely that you are going to find much distance form from the runners here hence why I shall keep to three each way based more around trainer or jockey bookings than the actual form in the book at big prices.

To begin with I have to back the two Jonjo O’Neill runners in the race at 33/1+ given that the trainer has won four of last six running’s of this On the form book, they wouldn’t be the most likely of winners and in fact I backed The King of Angels last time out when pulled up at Sandown as he had the small field he needs to be seen at his best. So much for that being his ideal conditions, eh?..Along with Pass It On who again have little form to recommend it looking at the conventional form book, the only reason for betting them is the trainer’s record in the race and two good amateurs booked in Alan Berry and J T McNamara. At 66/1 and 40/1 they are far bigger prices than they should be from this yard and have to carry 0.5pt each way each on them.

The third one is the Henry Daly trained Sherwood Folly who has the capable Irish pilot of Damien Murphy who partnered Whyso Mayo to victory in the 2006 Foxhunters here. The trainer has won this race in the past and this horse looks like an out and out stayer from his form who has improved for the application of cheek pieces as well. Currently a 33/1 shot with Corals he is worth a small each way bet.

In fact, during the course of typing this up I have had another look at the bumper again and have decided not to bother risking any of my bank in this race as it looks a complete minefield so just the 13pts staked today


To recap :

2.00 : Razor Royale 1pt e/w at 28/1(Corals)
2.35: Joe Lively 1pt e/w @12/1(Ladbrokes), \Roll Along 0.5 pt e/w @25/1(Ladbrokes)
3.15:Voy Pur Ustedes 2pt win @100/30(Corals)
4.00: Orbit’O’ Gold/Tagula Blue/Mendo 3x 0.5pt e/w @ 40/1(Ladbrokes), 80/1(Corals) and 25/1 (Ladbrokes) respectively.

4.40: The King of Angels/Pass It On/Sherwood Folly 3x 0.5pt e/w @ 50/1(Hills),40/1(Hills) and 33/1(Corals)


Best of luck with whatever you bet today..

 

You've some life Roger

 

Roll along 2nd @ 25/1 (i think) and

Finger on the pulse wins @ 11/1.

 

Those tips starting to make me money now

 

 

Finger on the Pulse

 

Mastermid

 

As we enter the final day of what has already been a memorable festival ,we still have the spellbinding meeting of the two best 3m+ chasers in the country, nay Europe,, to come and there is no way I will be having a bet on that race. After all, why would you want to take your eyes off the action for a second, and worry about how your each way bet on a 33/1 shot is doing?. Let’s just hope that we get the clash every one is talking about and Denman jumps the last alongside Kauto Star and maybe one other to give the crowd the chance to really take the roof off the old place.

On Thursday’s racing, well I seriously underestimated how good a jumper Master Minded was and he gave Voy Pur a complete ass whipping in as impressive a fashion as seen at this distance for many a year. And since he is only a five year old, could he come back time and time again and do an Inglis Drever and won three titles?. On that horse, well how did he manage to drift out as big as 6/4. Tougher than old boots, and stays well with that touch of class as well you need. A true hero of the game and bring him back for one more try Howard, please!

Onto Friday’s less mammoth nine race card, and the Ballymore Properties, Coral Cup have already been covered by myself previously and the bets still stand.

12.30 David Nicholson Mares Only Hurdle

Whilst Mick Fitzgerald has already nailed his colours firmly to the mast with Chomba Womba and how much he thinks of her, I will be limiting my stake to just 0.5pt e/w on a large price outsider in Silver Charmer who is overpriced at 66/1.

Firstly, he has Ruby Walsh on board which is a positive in more ways than one. Obviously ,having a top jockey on board is a help, but this top jockey already has previous on this mare having won a handicap last spring over 2m5f here. She is clearly a mare who comes to herself this time of year, with three of her nine wins coming in the months of March and April. With that record, it is obvious to me that her trainer has kept her back deliberately for this in the hope of gaining some nice black type for her before she goes to the paddocks sometime in the next season or so. At the prices, she has to be better value each way than backing the favourite win only.

2.15 Triumph Hurdle

With the current prices on offer, the first thing to say is that this is a definite no-bet race for me. Franchoeck may well win but I would rather just let him do so without risking any hard earned, and there isn’t that much each way value in his rivals.

2.50 Brit Insurance Hurdle(Albert Bartlett)

I am glad that the Nicholls camp got off the mark today as it means that their runner TheTotherOne helps to allow bookmakers to give away a little bit of value with the less high profile trained Gone To Lunch under A P McCoy. If he was trained by the Master of Ditcheat then I would reckon his run behind Inglis Drever and Blazing Bailey in the Cleeve Hurdle would have him down as a short price favourite in this grade. An out and out stayer,he has been impressive in his four wins so far this season ,and was giving 7lbs to another of today’s rivals Nenuphar Collonges over today’s C&d prior to that last run in the Cleeve. As I said, if he was trained by a bigger name then he would be a lot shorter in the betting and therefore betting him Win Only at 11/2 seems the best course of action here for 2pts.

3.30 Gold Cup-Already said no bet race. One to set the replay for though and watch for years to go, especially on those balmy summer nights when sellers from Redcar or Windsor tend to permeate the racing channels broadcasts…

4.05 Christie’s Foxhunters

After the main event, this will feel almost like scrapping around in buckets looking for whatever leftovers are there compared to that main meal banquet served up by Denman and Kauto Star. However, I reckon there are a couple of tasty bets here each way, both currently available at 25/1 at the moment, and both being backed for 1pt e/w each.

First up, we have crack amateur Derek O’Connor riding for trainer Ian Ferguson on French Tyne. The trainer is of course most famous for the 3rd placed Joe Blake two years ago, so we know he has previous in bringing one over for this race and French Tyne is a nine year old who has two runs under Rules in Hunter Chases to his name, with the last one being a win over 2m4f at Clonmel on heavy going., and is a half brother to Thyne Again who ran creditably in the Arkle on Tuesday(God, that feels like ages ago now, doesn’t it ). In the after race comments, the Racing Post writer speculated that he would be suited by a step up in trip which he gets today ,and therefore at the prices he is overpriced to these eyes.

The second one is another raider from across the Emerald Isle in the shape of Railway Ranger who was in the process of running a good race behind favourite Agus A Vic at Leopardstown when tipping up three out. Ridden by another good Irish jockey that I rate in Coleman Sweeney(What is it though with Irish jockeys and strange first names? Ruby and now Coleman!) and if he gets on as well with this horse as his previous Festival mounts Sleeping Night and First Down Jets in this race(a winner and 66/1 2nd) then we should be in for a good run from this one.

4.40 Grand Annual

The last race over steeplechase fences for yet another Festival and I go with a shock result here with a lightly weighted runner in the shape of Magic Sky. I have been convinced for a while that there is a big race win in this one and having taken another look at the race he was 6th in behind Tamarinbleu over 2m5f here in December, I am sure it was as much the handicap mark he had then that kept him out of the first four there. He is now 8lb lower here and again, I feel he needs a mixture of this trip, cut in the ground and a good pace to take a hand in proceedings which he is likely to get here and at 40/1 he is worth throwing away 0.5 pt each way on him as I would hate to say all that and then not back him as he jumps the last six clear, given that he is joint top rated by both Topspeed and Racing Post Ratings..




5.20 County Hurdle

The traditional “getting out of jail “ stakes and two big priced outsiders make up my last bets at the Festival in what looks a sub standard renewal of this race compared to previous years, rating’s wise. The two who I shall be betting each way at 33/1 for 1pt each are King’s Revenge and Dark Bolero.

In the case of King‘s Revenge, where can you get a chance of backing an Alan King runner ,ridden by his stable jockey Robert Thornton, in a big race at 33/1?..He does have a look of a perennial bridesmaid about him in some way(King’s Revenge that is, not Alan King!) with seven seconds compared to just four wins but that should work in our favour with our each way bet as he should at the very least be competitive off his current mark of 131 of running a race for us.

The second runner is a bit more of a dark horse in the shape of Phillip Rothwell’s raider Dark Bolero who goes well fresh and is one I am certain to has a big field to be seen at his best and who has an eight pound pull at the weights with second favourite I’mSingingTheBlues .He was beaten 10 lengths plus that day but does that really explain the disparity in pricing between the two?. Not to these eyes it doesn’t and therefore I think Ladbrokes 33/1 is a pretty big price, and in common with King’s Revenge will carrying 1pt each way of my cash tomorrow to hopefully end the meeting in some style.


To recap:

12.30: Silver Charmer 0.5 pt e/w @66/1
1.05: Razor Royale 1pt e/w @28/1
1.40: Orbit’O’ Gold/Mendo/Tagula Blue 3x 0.5pt each way @ 40/1,22/1,and 80/1 respectively
2.55: Go To Lunch 2pt s win @ 11/2
4.05: Railway Ranger/French Tyne 2x 1pt each way @25/1(x2)
4.40: Magic Sky 1pt each way @40/1
5.20: King’s Revenge/Dark Bolero 2 x 1pt each way @ 33/1(x2)


Best of luck tomorrow and may all the jockeys and horses live to fight another day, hopefully one that includes Denman vs. Kauto Star : The Rematch..

 

At 33/1 on PP from 40/1...apparently the owners have lumped big money on him...26k.

Good jockey on him aswell