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Playoff update thread

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MayoMark View Drop Down
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    Posted: 25 Mar 2023 at 9:08pm
I'll admit I haven't a clue how this works and I'm far too lazy to find out. But some on here are really tuned into it so maybe update this thread when results do or don't go our way  
They finally did it man... They killed my f**kin' car...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dalymount79 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2023 at 9:38pm
We’re ranked 25 (26th in NL table - Germany) in the playoff table. 8 spots (4 for path A and 4 path B) available so need 17 teams above us to qualify directly to guarantee a playoff spot.

Some groups have 3 teams ranked above us. not all 3 can qualify so some spots already take. Eg Spain, Scotland and Norway and England, Italy and Ukraine.



At this stage id say it’s greater than 70% chance we’ll be playing Slovenia away or Albania at home in a playoff, via path A.


Edited by Dalymount79 - 26 Mar 2023 at 7:51am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Greener92 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2023 at 10:21pm
Originally posted by Dalymount79 Dalymount79 wrote:

We’re ranked 25 (26th in NL table - Germany) in the playoff table. 8 spots (4 for path A and 4 path B) available so need 17 teams above us to qualify directly to guarantee a playoff spot.

Some groups have 3 teams ranked above us. not all 3 can qualify so some spots already take. Eg Spain, Scotland and Norway and England, Italy and Ukraine.



At this that’s if say it’s great than 70% chance we’ll be playing Slovenia away or Albania at home in a playoff, via path A.

In an ideal world would we be hoping the 4 teams ranked above us in the NL rankings, fill the path for League A thus leaving us as the highest ranked team in path B? Or have I got that wrong?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Greener92 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2023 at 10:27pm
I’ve a headache LOLConfused
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CantonasCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2023 at 10:46pm
If automatic qualification doesn’t work out for us, does finishing 3rd in the group have a positive bearing on our ability to gain a play-off place?  I.e. if all of that NL permutations stuff described above falls into place for us , do we still need to finish as high as possible in Group B (3rd place) ? Obviously, we’d want to anyway ffs.         I know the Wikipedia page says play-offs are only based on NL standings.

Someone in here answered this for me a couple of months ago, but I can’t remember, so apologies for being blind to what is probably a simple answer. Thumbs Up


Edited by CantonasCat - 25 Mar 2023 at 10:46pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djhegzy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2023 at 10:47pm
Originally posted by CantonasCat CantonasCat wrote:

If automatic qualification doesn’t work out for us, does finishing 3rd in the group have a positive bearing on our ability to gain a play-off place?  I.e. if all of that NL permutations stuff described above falls into place for us , do we still need to finish as high as possible in Group B (3rd place) ? Obviously, we’d want to anyway ffs.         I know the Wikipedia page says play-offs are only based on NL standings.

Someone in here answered this for me a couple of months ago, but I can’t remember, so apologies for being blind to what is probably a simple answer. Thumbs Up

No could finish last in our group, no bering at all
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CantonasCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2023 at 10:49pm
Originally posted by djhegzy djhegzy wrote:

Originally posted by CantonasCat CantonasCat wrote:

If automatic qualification doesn’t work out for us, does finishing 3rd in the group have a positive bearing on our ability to gain a play-off place?  I.e. if all of that NL permutations stuff described above falls into place for us , do we still need to finish as high as possible in Group B (3rd place) ? Obviously, we’d want to anyway ffs.         I know the Wikipedia page says play-offs are only based on NL standings.

Someone in here answered this for me a couple of months ago, but I can’t remember, so apologies for being blind to what is probably a simple answer. Thumbs Up

No could finish last in our group, no bering at all

Thanks for the clarity Thumbs UpThumbs Up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote kevin100 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2023 at 11:15pm
https://editorial.uefa.com/resources/0279-1636ce1f2295-f77616bdffaa-1000/un.pdf.pdf 
here are the overall rankings posted above. We are 26th in the list. There are 8th play off places available so to be the 8th team to sneak a play off we will need 18 of the 25 teams above us to qualify. 

Group A Scotland/Norway 
Group C Ukraine/Italy 
Group H Slovenia/Finland
Group J Iceland/Bosnia 

All possess teams who finished above us and will more then likely see Spain,England,Denmark and Portugal qualify with one of the 4 each above. That means 4 teams above us will be needing a play off straight away. 

That’s left with 3 teams above us not qualifying in the remaining 6 groups. It’s vital for us the following come out of their respective groups. These 3 Groups almost certainly hold the key for us.

Group E Serbia/Hungary 
Group D Croatia/Wales 
Group G Czech/Poland 

Then leaves as they would say in the US elections key/swing states  Group F Austria/Sweden in a shoot-out,Group I Israel/Kosovo/Romania will be competing for the 2nd qualifying spot and our own group. 

We want Austria and Israel qualifying (wouldn’t be optimistic about Israel) and let’s say we ain’t qualifying Holland coming out as opposed to Greece. 

If 5 of the 6 teams mentioned above in Group E,D and G can qualify we will almost certainly get a play off spot even if Austria and Israel fail to qualify. One potential flier is Slovakia might serve it up to Bosnia/Iceland in Group G that would be a complete disaster if they qualified or of course Greece pipping Holland to 2nd place. 




Edited by kevin100 - 25 Mar 2023 at 11:19pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Badgersboys9 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2023 at 11:21pm
To simplify it, any goals that Ireland score you take the mean average of them goals, mulitply it by pi and take it away from the median value of the total goals score by 3 weakest teams in Asia.

I really don't see what people are not getting here.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kevin100 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2023 at 11:54pm
Wales drawing 1-1 against Croatia a positive result for us overall as well I suspect. Croatia will surely qualify and it’s probably down to Wales vs Turkey for the other spot. 

Decent result.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CantonasCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2023 at 12:01am
Originally posted by kevin100 kevin100 wrote:

https://editorial.uefa.com/resources/0279-1636ce1f2295-f77616bdffaa-1000/un.pdf.pdf 
here are the overall rankings posted above. We are 26th in the list. There are 8th play off places available so to be the 8th team to sneak a play off we will need 18 of the 25 teams above us to qualify. 

Group A Scotland/Norway 
Group C Ukraine/Italy 
Group H Slovenia/Finland
Group J Iceland/Bosnia 

All possess teams who finished above us and will more then likely see Spain,England,Denmark and Portugal qualify with one of the 4 each above. That means 4 teams above us will be needing a play off straight away. 

That’s left with 3 teams above us not qualifying in the remaining 6 groups. It’s vital for us the following come out of their respective groups. These 3 Groups almost certainly hold the key for us.

Group E Serbia/Hungary 
Group D Croatia/Wales 
Group G Czech/Poland 

Then leaves as they would say in the US elections key/swing states  Group F Austria/Sweden in a shoot-out,Group I Israel/Kosovo/Romania will be competing for the 2nd qualifying spot and our own group. 

We want Austria and Israel qualifying (wouldn’t be optimistic about Israel) and let’s say we ain’t qualifying Holland coming out as opposed to Greece. 

If 5 of the 6 teams mentioned above in Group E,D and G can qualify we will almost certainly get a play off spot even if Austria and Israel fail to qualify. One potential flier is Slovakia might serve it up to Bosnia/Iceland in Group G that would be a complete disaster if they qualified or of course Greece pipping Holland to 2nd place. 



Great stuff.  That is what I call detail!! 
JC
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Roberto Baggio Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2023 at 12:51am
Could see this being a very busy thread over the next year or so 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote PaulYK Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2023 at 5:23am
Originally posted by kevin100 kevin100 wrote:

https://editorial.uefa.com/resources/0279-1636ce1f2295-f77616bdffaa-1000/un.pdf.pdf 
here are the overall rankings posted above. We are 26th in the list. There are 8th play off places available so to be the 8th team to sneak a play off we will need 18 of the 25 teams above us to qualify. 

Group A Scotland/Norway 
Group C Ukraine/Italy 
Group H Slovenia/Finland
Group J Iceland/Bosnia 

All possess teams who finished above us and will more then likely see Spain,England,Denmark and Portugal qualify with one of the 4 each above. That means 4 teams above us will be needing a play off straight away. 

That’s left with 3 teams above us not qualifying in the remaining 6 groups. It’s vital for us the following come out of their respective groups. These 3 Groups almost certainly hold the key for us.

Group E Serbia/Hungary 
Group D Croatia/Wales 
Group G Czech/Poland 

Then leaves as they would say in the US elections key/swing states  Group F Austria/Sweden in a shoot-out,Group I Israel/Kosovo/Romania will be competing for the 2nd qualifying spot and our own group. 

We want Austria and Israel qualifying (wouldn’t be optimistic about Israel) and let’s say we ain’t qualifying Holland coming out as opposed to Greece. 

If 5 of the 6 teams mentioned above in Group E,D and G can qualify we will almost certainly get a play off spot even if Austria and Israel fail to qualify. One potential flier is Slovakia might serve it up to Bosnia/Iceland in Group G that would be a complete disaster if they qualified or of course Greece pipping Holland to 2nd place. 


Thanks for setting this out. Really helpful.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dalymount79 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2023 at 8:01am
The north qualifying would be bad for us so Finland getting a result today would do nicely.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TBWRA Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2023 at 8:17am
Great thread
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dalymount79 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2023 at 8:30am
Originally posted by Greener92 Greener92 wrote:

Originally posted by Dalymount79 Dalymount79 wrote:

We’re ranked 25 (26th in NL table - Germany) in the playoff table. 8 spots (4 for path A and 4 path B) available so need 17 teams above us to qualify directly to guarantee a playoff spot.

Some groups have 3 teams ranked above us. not all 3 can qualify so some spots already take. Eg Spain, Scotland and Norway and England, Italy and Ukraine.



At this that’s if say it’s great than 70% chance we’ll be playing Slovenia away or Albania at home in a playoff, via path A.

In an ideal world would we be hoping the 4 teams ranked above us in the NL rankings, fill the path for League A thus leaving us as the highest ranked team in path B? Or have I got that wrong?
path B playoff spots are filled by the highest ranked NL League B teams that need a playoff spot. The next NL team(s) move across to path A joining the NL league A teams who haven’t qualified.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MayoMark Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2023 at 8:18pm
A massive boost for us with the North going 1-0 down. Although I have no idea why, I just saw someone say it on another thread  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bandwagon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2023 at 8:24pm
Originally posted by MayoMark MayoMark wrote:

A massive boost for us with the North going 1-0 down. Although I have no idea why, I just saw someone say it on another thread  


Cos we want Denmark and Slovenia to finished 1st & 2nd in that group.
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