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Nvidic's overpriced bets
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nvidic View Drop Down
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    Posted: 05 Oct 2011 at 4:16pm
I always keep an eye out for bets I think are overpriced, they are not tips, just prices that i think should be lower than they are

This week;
Ireland - Armenia draw @ 7/2, bwin, personally would have 5/2
Armenia (H v macedonia)- 8/11, broadly available, personally would have 4/7
Ireland - Andorra under 2.5 goals, 13/8, broadly available, based on recent performances it seems quite high
Simon Cox last goalscorer @ 9/2, will hill, boyles, at least a point too big, bets refunded if he doesnt make it onto the pitch

Underpriced;
Russia to beat Slovakia @ 7/5, odds should be 6/4 based on the fact slovakia and draw double chance is 1/2
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Good man nvidic , it's good when a fella is checking the market,

Personally think the cox bet is value and will pile in there ,

I know Russia better than evens but away from home only needed draw even though I see the value I wouldn't bet it
The first time the Devil made me do it. The second time I did it on my own.
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Points: 18994 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nvidic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2011 at 1:28am
Russia is a poor price i meant! Should be 6/4 and the bookies know it, being cheeky with their 7/5!
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Points: 18994 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nvidic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Oct 2011 at 2:04am
Two overpriced wins and one refund, hope people were aboard, only backef cox myself
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Some great shouts vidic
They finally did it man... They killed my f**kin' car...
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Never got to the bookies, but that under 2.5 goals one was a good tip. I would have backed Ireland to win 2-0 as well. Hate when that happens 
Romario 2016: And the ticket mafia gets caught! Well, four years ago I had already told the government.
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Ireland 4/6 vs Armenia??
Theres only one sport that matters..
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Armenia to win @4/1 is f**king insane money. If I wasn't Irish I'd be all over that
They finally did it man... They killed my f**kin' car...
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Draw/Armenia 17/2...
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Originally posted by MayoMark MayoMark wrote:

Armenia to win @4/1 is f**king insane money. If I wasn't Irish I'd be all over that

Bookies love people like you.

We are favourites for valid reasons.

1. we are at home, where we generally beat teams seeded below us
2. we've already beaten them.
3. we have (on paper, i.e. playing their club football at a higher standard) better players
4. we haven't let a goal in for 8 games.
5. we are ranked much higher than them.
6. we are ahead of them in the group
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Originally posted by Stoked Up Stoked Up wrote:

Originally posted by MayoMark MayoMark wrote:

Armenia to win @4/1 is f**king insane money. If I wasn't Irish I'd be all over that

Bookies love people like you.

We are favourites for valid reasons.

1. we are at home, where we generally beat teams seeded below us
2. we've already beaten them.
3. we have (on paper, i.e. playing their club football at a higher standard) better players
4. we haven't let a goal in for 8 games.
5. we are ranked much higher than them.
6. we are ahead of them in the group

 
Only for they were slow starters they would be right up there. They tore Macedonia to shreds the last day, they battered Slovakia (home AND away) and should have done the Rooskies. These guys are a better football team than we are, based on performances
They finally did it man... They killed my f**kin' car...
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No, they're not significantly better than us. Remember, we also beat Macedonia home and away and deservedly so.

As well as losing at home to us, they also lost in Moscow. 
And but for their bizarre result against Slovakia, their away form is not so good.

If I were a bookie, these are the sort of odds I'd be quoting.
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Originally posted by Stoked Up Stoked Up wrote:

No, they're not significantly better than us. Remember, we also beat Macedonia home and away and deservedly so.

As well as losing at home to us, they also lost in Moscow. 
And but for their bizarre result against Slovakia, their away form is not so good.

If I were a bookie, these are the sort of odds I'd be quoting.



 
I never said that in fairness. And our home form isn't exactly brilliant either. 6 of one half a dozen of the other in my opinion.
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personally think we're a bit short @ 4/7 and armenia long at 9/2 considering their form, i like the look of both teams to score @evens, will have a proper look later to see if there's much overpriced
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Last weeks overpriced 7/2 draw is now a 5/2 rightly priced draw!

This week;
France v BOSNIA draw no bet @ 4's, bosnia dont travel well but they have a lot to play for and are a good team, 4's seems too big

The insurebet goalscorer market has good value with doyle @ 7/2 and cox @ 4's amongst others

Kazakhstan V AUSTRIA 8/11, VC, Will Hill

nothing else really jumps out.. if anyone sees anything post it down
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Israel are 1/2 away to Malta tomorrow night , if you can put in another decent price team to make it a double with Israel get on it....
 
 


Edited by Green Devil - 10 Oct 2011 at 1:31pm
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Lithunia are 5/1 at home to the Czech's.
 
Looking at their results for the past 2 years they are hit or miss as they beat the Czech's in Olomouc but lost to Leichenstein 2-0 in June this year then beat Armenia 3-0 in an august friendly. The czech's have the added pressure of having to win the game and could be caught on the counter attack as I think Lithunia have some pretty quick forwards so they could be a bit of value if anyone wants to risk them
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Originally posted by MayoMark MayoMark wrote:

Armenia to win @4/1 is f**king insane money. If I wasn't Irish I'd be all over that
Its been the top football bet today at Paddy Power, could never bet against Ireland. Angry
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