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Ray Houghton
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote irelandfan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2022 at 1:33pm
Originally posted by Roberto Baggio Roberto Baggio wrote:

Noticeable change at the count centres from the Shinners. 
Didn't see a tricolour, elected MLA's being hoisted onto shoulders or any singing

Mary Lou cracking the whip after the criticsim in the south at the last election

Thats good to see in my Constituency which would be a very Republican area by in large Come out ye black and Tans belted at the count was funny but also not the Image the party needed.
I'm the gaffer whatever I say goes.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote B6 6HE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2022 at 2:27pm
Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

SF campaign was exemplary. Vote management on the ground was meticulous, choice of candidates likewise, they stood back and let unionism splinter without intrusion and showed iron discipline throughout. Messaging was positive and consistent enough to attract transfers and there was a notable absence of triumphalism despite the unprecedented result. They can now sit back and let the DUP take the flak between now and November. Another election then would almost certainly see them increase their majority. In the meantime the rise of the party continues in the south and Mary Lou looks a good bet for next Taoiseach.

All true.

Still a million miles from unification unfortunately. 

Realistically,  they have mopped up the SDLP vote.

There are only marginal.increases in nationalist vote.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Badgersboys9 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2022 at 2:38pm
Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

SF campaign was exemplary. Vote management on the ground was meticulous, choice of candidates likewise, they stood back and let unionism splinter without intrusion and showed iron discipline throughout. Messaging was positive and consistent enough to attract transfers and there was a notable absence of triumphalism despite the unprecedented result. They can now sit back and let the DUP take the flak between now and November. Another election then would almost certainly see them increase their majority. In the meantime the rise of the party continues in the south and Mary Lou looks a good bet for next Taoiseach.

All true.

Still a million miles from unification unfortunately. 

Realistically,  they have mopped up the SDLP vote.

There are only marginal.increases in nationalist vote.




Pretty sure that was the goal, year on year increase.

They're hard going to mop up the Unionist vote now. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote B6 6HE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2022 at 2:45pm
Originally posted by Badgersboys9 Badgersboys9 wrote:

Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

SF campaign was exemplary. Vote management on the ground was meticulous, choice of candidates likewise, they stood back and let unionism splinter without intrusion and showed iron discipline throughout. Messaging was positive and consistent enough to attract transfers and there was a notable absence of triumphalism despite the unprecedented result. They can now sit back and let the DUP take the flak between now and November. Another election then would almost certainly see them increase their majority. In the meantime the rise of the party continues in the south and Mary Lou looks a good bet for next Taoiseach.

All true.

Still a million miles from unification unfortunately. 

Realistically,  they have mopped up the SDLP vote.

There are only marginal.increases in nationalist vote.




Pretty sure that was the goal, year on year increase.

They're hard going to mop up the Unionist vote now. 

Let's be brutally honest.

Unification is not a foreseeable outcome.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote horsebox Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 May 2022 at 2:55pm
Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by Badgersboys9 Badgersboys9 wrote:

Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

SF campaign was exemplary. Vote management on the ground was meticulous, choice of candidates likewise, they stood back and let unionism splinter without intrusion and showed iron discipline throughout. Messaging was positive and consistent enough to attract transfers and there was a notable absence of triumphalism despite the unprecedented result. They can now sit back and let the DUP take the flak between now and November. Another election then would almost certainly see them increase their majority. In the meantime the rise of the party continues in the south and Mary Lou looks a good bet for next Taoiseach.

All true.

Still a million miles from unification unfortunately. 

Realistically,  they have mopped up the SDLP vote.

There are only marginal.increases in nationalist vote.

Pretty sure that was the goal, year on year increase.

They're hard going to mop up the Unionist vote now. 

Let's be brutally honest.

Unification is not a foreseeable outcome.

Why not?
It was far across the sea,
When the devil got a hold of me,
He wouldn't set me free,
So he kept me soul for ransom.
na na na na na na na na na
na na na na na na na na.
I'm a sailor man from Glasgow to
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jackal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2022 at 12:50am
Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by Badgersboys9 Badgersboys9 wrote:

Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

SF campaign was exemplary. Vote management on the ground was meticulous, choice of candidates likewise, they stood back and let unionism splinter without intrusion and showed iron discipline throughout. Messaging was positive and consistent enough to attract transfers and there was a notable absence of triumphalism despite the unprecedented result. They can now sit back and let the DUP take the flak between now and November. Another election then would almost certainly see them increase their majority. In the meantime the rise of the party continues in the south and Mary Lou looks a good bet for next Taoiseach.

All true.

Still a million miles from unification unfortunately. 

Realistically,  they have mopped up the SDLP vote.

There are only marginal.increases in nationalist vote.

Pretty sure that was the goal, year on year increase.

They're hard going to mop up the Unionist vote now. 

Let's be brutally honest.

Unification is not a foreseeable outcome.

Why not?

More Unionists got seats than Nationalists.


Edited by Jackal - 10 May 2022 at 12:51am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Green Cockade Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2022 at 6:58am
Marginally, yes ( SF-27, SDLP-8, also PBP-1 is supportive of Irish unity, total : 36 v DUP-25, UUP-9, TUV-1, Independent unionists-2, total: 37 , the other 17 seats are currently held by Alliance who are non-aligned ) but overall unionists are now a significant minority and split as ever on multiple fronts.The only thing that unites them is a nebulous loyalty to the union and identifying as British. Hard to know what the latter even means any more in the context of rebellious Scots constantly electing the SNP as their biggest party, the Welsh leaning increasingly towards nationalism and the English contemptuous and indifferent towards them. The group that will ultimately decide the issue of Irish unity is the so-called "middle ground", the likes of the burgeoning Alliance Party which does not currently have an official stance on it but is for instance strongly pro-EU and Protocol and regarded as a modern and progressive party mainly that has stood up over recent years to bullying and violence from unionist/loyalist fundamentalists.

Edited by Green Cockade - 10 May 2022 at 7:16am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newryrep Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2022 at 7:14am
Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

Marginally, yes, but overall unionists are now a significant minority and split as ever on multiple fronts.The only thing that unites them is a nebulous loyalty to the union and identifying as British. Hard to know what the latter even means any more in the context of rebellious Scots constantly electing the SNP as their biggest party, the Welsh leaning increasingly towards nationalism and the English contemptuous and indifferent towards them. The group that will ultimately decide the issue of Irish unity is the so-called "middle ground", the likes of the burgeoning Alliance Party which does not currently have an official stance on it but is for instance strongly pro-EU and Protocol and regarded as a modern and progressive party mainly that has stood up over recent years to bullying and violence from unionist/loyalist fundamentalists.

Which is why the next 5 years is important to set the precedent of what the country could look like united 

Was good to see no tricolours etc at the counts and the shinners need to avoid kicking the garden gate as they walk by on occasions

Think John Hume said when unionism is in a minority it will destroy itself - let them do it themselves it will be ti everybody’s benefit in the long term 

Was struck by the young tour guide in Belgrade ( too young to have experienced the war ) who said that Yugoslavia probably woukd of broke up peacefully if people had had a bit more patience 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Cabra Hoop Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2022 at 8:35am
Looks to me like the DUP lost some votes to the TUV, now whether thats a trend or a one off is uncertain. Similarly the AP seems to have gained votes from the SDLP and UUP, is it a trend ? I get the sense that some of that SDLP cohort are well educated, well paid public servants who are slowly moving away from the romantic notion of an AI and when it comes down to it will vote to No. Overall in the election the combined unionist vote got the largest percentage. The big unknown is how the AP would approach a border poll. 
" BFC always gives me a laugh........ "
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote horsebox Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2022 at 9:12am
Originally posted by Jackal Jackal wrote:

Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by Badgersboys9 Badgersboys9 wrote:

Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

Originally posted by Green Cockade Green Cockade wrote:

SF campaign was exemplary. Vote management on the ground was meticulous, choice of candidates likewise, they stood back and let unionism splinter without intrusion and showed iron discipline throughout. Messaging was positive and consistent enough to attract transfers and there was a notable absence of triumphalism despite the unprecedented result. They can now sit back and let the DUP take the flak between now and November. Another election then would almost certainly see them increase their majority. In the meantime the rise of the party continues in the south and Mary Lou looks a good bet for next Taoiseach.

All true.

Still a million miles from unification unfortunately. 

Realistically,  they have mopped up the SDLP vote.

There are only marginal.increases in nationalist vote.

Pretty sure that was the goal, year on year increase.

They're hard going to mop up the Unionist vote now. 

Let's be brutally honest.

Unification is not a foreseeable outcome.

Why not?

More Unionists got seats than Nationalists.

That's got nothing to do with it.
There are far more many variables to a UI than basic green v white.

There are Nationalists who would vote against it and 'Unionists' who would vote for it!.

I think the fact is, a lesson has been learned from Brexit and if you plan it correctly, your more likely going to get the desired result.


It was far across the sea,
When the devil got a hold of me,
He wouldn't set me free,
So he kept me soul for ransom.
na na na na na na na na na
na na na na na na na na.
I'm a sailor man from Glasgow to
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newryrep Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 May 2022 at 9:34am
Originally posted by Cabra Hoop Cabra Hoop wrote:

Looks to me like the DUP lost some votes to the TUV, now whether thats a trend or a one off is uncertain. Similarly the AP seems to have gained votes from the SDLP and UUP, is it a trend ? I get the sense that some of that SDLP cohort are well educated, well paid public servants who are slowly moving away from the romantic notion of an AI and when it comes down to it will vote to No. Overall in the election the combined unionist vote got the largest percentage. The big unknown is how the AP would approach a border poll. 

They might fudge it and offer a free vote though I am not sure that is wise 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote irishmufc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 May 2022 at 8:51am
It will be interesting to see if the DUP cave to the pressure from the business community. At least it weakens their leverage in holding out. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-61385412
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Trap junior Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 May 2022 at 11:01am
Originally posted by irishmufc irishmufc wrote:

It will be interesting to see if the DUP cave to the pressure from the business community. At least it weakens their leverage in holding out. 



Bad Daniel will still say 'no!'
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote colemanY2K Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 May 2022 at 9:08am
the attorney general in the uk - who is a boris lackey - has said in her legal opinon that boris has every right to do away with the brexit agreement. only a matter of time i guess before the ejit follows her advice.

the uk will pay a heavy price, the economy is already well on its way down the tubes.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote darmack Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 May 2022 at 10:59am
Just in time for the new Elizabeth line. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jerryfromkerry Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2022 at 12:28am
Nationalist parties got more votes than Unionist parties. Adding in Independents both blocks on 42% with Unionist vote 5,000 more. Unionists 1 more seat but they tend to transfer better than Nationalists. Basically 3 blocks now in ratio of 40:40:20. The interesting thing though if you look at "Other" transfers only 25% to Unionist parties. 

Edited by Jerryfromkerry - 15 May 2022 at 12:29am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote B6 6HE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2022 at 12:02pm
[QUOTE=Jerryfromkerry]Nationalist parties got more votes than Unionist parties. Adding in Independents both blocks on 42% with Unionist vote 5,000 more. Unionists 1 more seat but they tend to transfer better than Nationalists. Basically 3 blocks now in ratio of 40:40:20. The interesting thing though if you look at "Other" transfers only 25% to Unionist parties.  [/QUOTE

Partition will be with us for a long time yet unfortunately. ]
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote horsebox Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2022 at 1:35pm
Originally posted by B6 6HE B6 6HE wrote:

[QUOTE=Jerryfromkerry]Nationalist parties got more votes than Unionist parties. Adding in Independents both blocks on 42% with Unionist vote 5,000 more. Unionists 1 more seat but they tend to transfer better than Nationalists. Basically 3 blocks now in ratio of 40:40:20. The interesting thing though if you look at "Other" transfers only 25% to Unionist parties.  [/QUOTE

Partition will be with us for a long time yet unfortunately. ]

Spoken like a true blue shirt.
It was far across the sea,
When the devil got a hold of me,
He wouldn't set me free,
So he kept me soul for ransom.
na na na na na na na na na
na na na na na na na na.
I'm a sailor man from Glasgow to
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