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horsebox View Drop Down
Robbie Keane
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote horsebox Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 2017 at 3:45pm
McGuinness on the news now, looks gravely ill.

     
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randyrandolph View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote randyrandolph Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 2017 at 3:53pm
could be a good opportunity for sf to change face a little and usher the new guard.

hopefully Vlad takes an interest in NI politics and it's a landslide for the shinners. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bogball88 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 2017 at 4:13pm


Prediction that SDLP will pick up seats is wide of the mark for a couple of reasons

1. Any new election will be for 5 seater constituencies instead of 6, meaning there are 16 less seats available

2. I may be wrong but I'm not aware of seats where SDLP narrowly lost out to SF where they could pick up a seat. Upper Bann maybe, but this was the 6th and final seat which wouldn't be available this time. No SDLP representation in West Belfast I would imagine

PBPA will lose Eamonn McCann in Foyle presumably which will be a shame


Edited by bogball88 - 09 Jan 2017 at 4:17pm
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reddladd View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote reddladd Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 2017 at 4:17pm
Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

McGuinness on the news now, looks gravely ill.



What's supposed to be wrong with him HB?
I could agree with you but then we'd both be wrong.
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SByrne24 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SByrne24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 2017 at 4:17pm
Originally posted by bogball88 bogball88 wrote:



Prediction that SDLP will pick up seats is wide of the mark for a couple of reasons

1. Any new election will be for 5 seater constituencies instead of 6, meaning there are 16 less seats available

2. I may be wrong but I'm not aware of seats where SDLP narrowly lost out to SF where they could pick up a seat. Upper Bann maybe, but this was the 6th and final seat which wouldn't be available this time. No SDLP representation in West Belfast I would imagine


What I think will happen is traditional hardcore SDLP errors will go back to SDLP they'll target South Down for sure, Derry is another if McGuinness goes SDLP have been going door to door there for a few months now since the election making their presence shown. SF didn't show up on our family house once during the election, the SDLP appeared 4 times.

It'll really depend how the SDLP play this, they have the platform they've been hoping for over a decade its up to them to capitalise on it. Alliance will make gains, Naomi Long makes that party electable the best politician in the province.

A rumour was cancer, he looks awful he was an excellent statesman for ireland/Northern Ireland but for his own interests he should step aside.


Edited by SByrne24 - 09 Jan 2017 at 4:18pm
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bogball88 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bogball88 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 2017 at 4:20pm
Originally posted by reddladd reddladd wrote:

Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

McGuinness on the news now, looks gravely ill.



What's supposed to be wrong with him HB?


Just seen it hes in bad shape alright, sad to see. Stomach cancer apparantly
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Liam Brady
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bogball88 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 2017 at 4:29pm
Originally posted by SByrne24 SByrne24 wrote:

Originally posted by bogball88 bogball88 wrote:



Prediction that SDLP will pick up seats is wide of the mark for a couple of reasons

1. Any new election will be for 5 seater constituencies instead of 6, meaning there are 16 less seats available

2. I may be wrong but I'm not aware of seats where SDLP narrowly lost out to SF where they could pick up a seat. Upper Bann maybe, but this was the 6th and final seat which wouldn't be available this time. No SDLP representation in West Belfast I would imagine


What I think will happen is traditional hardcore SDLP errors will go back to SDLP they'll target South Down for sure, Derry is another if McGuinness goes SDLP have been going door to door there for a few months now since the election making their presence shown. SF didn't show up on our family house once during the election, the SDLP appeared 4 times.

It'll really depend how the SDLP play this, they have the platform they've been hoping for over a decade its up to them to capitalise on it. Alliance will make gains, Naomi Long makes that party electable the best politician in the province.

A rumour was cancer, he looks awful he was an excellent statesman for ireland/Northern Ireland but for his own interests he should step aside.


For SDLP to pick up a seat here it would mean SF going down to 1 seat which I cant see happening. SDLP had 30% of vote and SF just behind on 28.5%. Although there could be a perfect storm for them if alot of independent votes which a lot were anti SF, and quite a few PBP votes go their way. A long shot at best


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SuperDave84 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 2017 at 4:45pm
The South Down and Londonderry Party will be doing well to do as they did before: 2 in South Down, 2 in Londonderry, and a handful across the rest of the constituencies.

They'd be well advised to run just the two sitting assembly members in South Down, mind.
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horsebox View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote horsebox Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 2017 at 4:55pm
Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:

The South Down and Londonderry Party will be doing well to do as they did before: 2 in South Down, 2 in Londonderry, and a handful across the rest of the constituencies.

They'd be well advised to run just the two sitting assembly members in South Down, mind.


Have you got you're Ulster\Scots spell check on?
     
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bogball88 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 2017 at 4:56pm
The end of Alex Attwood as we know it unless he is shipped over to South Belfast where he actually lives
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SuperDave84 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 2017 at 4:58pm
SDLP - South Down and Londonderry Party (edit: obviously not what it stands for, but it's not the first time it's been called that).

Anyway, interestingly enough, looking at the Upper Bann election last time around, similar figures would likely see the UUP losing their seat, despite finishing fourth, assuming enough SDLP transfers went to SF. Which is possible, certainly, as they are a lot more likely to go SF than UUP, down the list.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upper_Bann_(Assembly_constituency)


Edited by SuperDave84 - 09 Jan 2017 at 4:59pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Trap junior Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 2017 at 5:05pm
Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:

The South Down and Londonderry Party will be doing well to do as they did before: 2 in South Down, 2 in Londonderry, and a handful across the rest of the constituencies.

They'd be well advised to run just the two sitting assembly members in South Down, mind.


Have you got you're Ulster\Scots spell check on?


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Roy Keane
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newryrep Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 2017 at 5:28pm
Movie coming out about it shortly
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bogball88 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 2017 at 5:55pm
Other potential casualties that come to mind are SF Oliver McMullan in East Antrim, and McPhilips in FST who only got in due to SF putting up 4 candidates in the first place. Also current Education Minister Peter Weir (DUP) and Justice Minister Sugdeon (IND) look in potential trouble
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BigStrongMan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 2017 at 5:58pm
Originally posted by Trap junior Trap junior wrote:

Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

Originally posted by SuperDave84 SuperDave84 wrote:

The South Down and Londonderry Party will be doing well to do as they did before: 2 in South Down, 2 in Londonderry, and a handful across the rest of the constituencies.

They'd be well advised to run just the two sitting assembly members in South Down, mind.


Have you got you're Ulster\Scots spell check on?


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Trap junior View Drop Down
Robbie Keane
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Trap junior Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 2017 at 6:02pm
Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

McGuinness on the news now, looks gravely ill.



Just saw it there.  Looks like he's dyingShocked
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Robbie Keane
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Denis Irwin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 2017 at 6:04pm
Sounds very weak as well
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote armahibee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jan 2017 at 6:09pm
Jesus poor Marty looks ill...no way he can hold down the dfm post? Who's to replace him,??
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