Islamic State - Ruthless Beyond Belief

pre Madonna wrote: I would be very surprised if they didn't attack France before the presidential elections,  victory for Le Pen would be a huge coup for them,

corkery wrote: If she gets in, the EU may not collapse. She would just bring in border controls. I would imagine she would allow Europeans to France.

One of the primary goals of the NF is to leave the EU.

Edited by Bitored - 26 Nov 2016 at 3:01am

Bitored wrote: corkery wrote: If she gets in, the EU may not collapse. She would just bring in border controls. I would imagine she would allow Europeans to France. One of the primary goals of the NF is to leave the EU. The Brits pulling out has left a E10 Billion hole in the EU budget, I`d imagine France would leave a similar size gap. In that scenario, I just don't see how it would be feasible to continue in its current make up.   France was one of the founding members and Holland and Belgium (2 other founding members) would surely bolt with them as there`s a strong movement to Leave in those countries as it is.

the FN has zero chance of getting into power any time soon. In fact they don't have a single member of parliament. Even if she were to become president she can't just call a referendum. It needs parliamentary approval for it to go ahead. The parliament is full of pro-europeans who would argue have been elected on a pro-european platform. It just won't happen.

Of bigger concern right now is the Italian referendum next week. Defeat will likely lead to Renzi resigning and opening up the possibility of anti-eu parties getting into power in 2017. A major banking crisis also looms. The central banks of the EU, UK and US used up all their ammunition dealing with the previous crisis. The next banking crisis will be an existential threat to both the eurozone and the EU (the eurozone will be history - the EU may survive).

On your point about the financial black hole. The UK will be required to pay contributions into EU coffers long after it leaves. The economics of Brexit is impossible to pin down but I wouldn't be so sure the EU would be financially worse off without the UK. Only last week the papers were reporting the UK faces a £60bn bill for leaving. It'll not be another 20 or so years before we know the full financial impact.

p.s. the founding members are Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg.

Edited by colemanY2K - 26 Nov 2016 at 1:33pm

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-security-idUKKBN1450QT?rpc=401

GUFC_Andy wrote: Cultural enrichment.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-40363671

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/canadian-elite-special-forces-sniper-sets-record-breaking-kill-shot-in-iraq/article35415651/The bullet took nearly 10 seconds to hit him and the shot required the sniper to take into account wind, ballistics and even the earth's curvature! Nuts.

He's no Bernard McGinn.

Devrozex wrote: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/canadian-elite-special-forces-sniper-sets-record-breaking-kill-shot-in-iraq/article35415651/ The bullet took nearly 10 seconds to hit him and the shot required the sniper to take into account wind, ballistics and even the earth's curvature! Nuts.