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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote deise316 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2020 at 12:03am
Originally posted by Jackal Jackal wrote:

FG and FF could allow a minority SF government, sit back and block every bit of legislation.

That won't happen. A Taoiseach has to be elected, if FF/FG aren't going to work with SF, they sure aren't going to either vote for MLM as Taoiseach, or abstain from the vote and allow her become Taoiseach in the first place. 

If they did either, the first thing she would do is call another election looking to increase her mandate to govern from the people- not a chance FF/FG allow that- if they are going down the ''call another election'' route, they won't leave the decision to make that call to SF. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pipkin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2020 at 12:42am
Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

Well at least 43% of people who voted do. Throw in the SDs and greens and you have 53%. 

If they went back to the polls tomorrow that 43% would collapse 

I think it is under appreciated the extent to which Irish voters end up veering toward FF and FG to avoid casting a ‘wasted’ vote, as they see it; I.e. voting for a party or independent that won’t be in power. Now instead of having two choices to avoid a wasted vote there are three. This would tell especially in the constituencies where they didn’t pick up seats. 

They would pick up a seat in every constituency should another election be called.


Edited by Pipkin - 14 Feb 2020 at 12:43am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2020 at 1:27am
Originally posted by colmoc colmoc wrote:

another election in 2020 is 2/1.
Lump job
I wouldn't be lumping on. I think a lot of FFG TDs would be very nervous about their prospects in another election and that will force their hand and ensure a FFG coalition.

FF in particular have manoeuvred themselves into a terrible position. They need to be in government to be in any way relevant, but they've completely lost the old FF ability to play poker. They are looking around for the fool, and they don't know who it is. Which obviously means it's them.

I think ultimately after all they've said about SF, FFG now have no choice but to bite the bullet and finally get it on with each other. It sets up SF to romp to power in 2024 or more likely 2025, but FFG would lose more seats in a second election in 2020 if there was one, and you take what you can get now, which is one term in government, with an outside chance that it's perceived that you're actually making a success of it.

Of course FF could have avoided this if they hadn't burned their bridges with SF, that was the one situation where they would have got what they wanted, a chance to lead a government and also have the chance that SF could suffer a Labour type disaster next time, thus avoiding long term FF wipeout, but they were too pigheaded to see that.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Het-field Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2020 at 10:13am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Devrozex Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2020 at 10:24am
Originally posted by sid waddell sid waddell wrote:

Of course FF could have avoided this if they hadn't burned their bridges with SF, that was the one situation where they would have got what they wanted, a chance to lead a government and also have the chance that SF could suffer a Labour type disaster next time, thus avoiding long term FF wipeout, but they were too pigheaded to see that.
 
I think if they had a clear numerical advantage over SF they would have considered the possibility - but given they only hold one extra seat over them you're very much in rotating Taoiseach territory and they clearly didn't fancy that. If things went wrong in that scenario it would potentially lead to their mutually assured destruction with SF, as opposed to allowing them to throw SF under the bus Labour-style.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Het-field Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2020 at 10:41am
Originally posted by Devrozex Devrozex wrote:

Originally posted by sid waddell sid waddell wrote:

Of course FF could have avoided this if they hadn't burned their bridges with SF, that was the one situation where they would have got what they wanted, a chance to lead a government and also have the chance that SF could suffer a Labour type disaster next time, thus avoiding long term FF wipeout, but they were too pigheaded to see that.
 
I think if they had a clear numerical advantage over SF they would have considered the possibility - but given they only hold one extra seat over them you're very much in rotating Taoiseach territory and they clearly didn't fancy that. If things went wrong in that scenario it would potentially lead to their mutually assured destruction with SF, as opposed to allowing them to throw SF under the bus Labour-style.

I think this is it, in a nutshell. It would be less coalition and more power-sharing, with both parties eventually throwing pot shots at each other. It’s harder to mudguard a party that has Governmental experience in the North, and even harder when they have almost the same number of seats.

This is slightly unchartered territory, and for a number of reasons. First, SF having the largest share of the vote which complicates the allocation of the top jobs. Second, FG have an appetite for opposition, so it makes no odds to them. Third, FF can have power, but at a price not previously paid in coalition governments. Fourth, no setup of two parties can create a stable coalition.

Also, I’d be wary of assuming that Government in a FF/FG confidence and supply arrangement would ultimately be the destruction of both parties. Historically when votes and power were on the line FF would always go for loosening purse strings and repeating the amounts spent on various areas, while also finding ways of popping a few bob into peoples pockets through things like SSIA. In five years time if amounts of social housing was built etc, SF wouldn’t have the same clothes. Also, over the past six months SF’s vote has dramatically dropped and risen, so there isn’t a possibility that it might moderate downwards but not hugely.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote irishmufc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2020 at 11:50am
Originally posted by sid waddell sid waddell wrote:

Originally posted by colmoc colmoc wrote:

another election in 2020 is 2/1.
Lump job
I wouldn't be lumping on. I think a lot of FFG TDs would be very nervous about their prospects in another election and that will force their hand and ensure a FFG coalition.

FF in particular have manoeuvred themselves into a terrible position. They need to be in government to be in any way relevant, but they've completely lost the old FF ability to play poker. They are looking around for the fool, and they don't know who it is. Which obviously means it's them.

I think ultimately after all they've said about SF, FFG now have no choice but to bite the bullet and finally get it on with each other. It sets up SF to romp to power in 2024 or more likely 2025, but FFG would lose more seats in a second election in 2020 if there was one, and you take what you can get now, which is one term in government, with an outside chance that it's perceived that you're actually making a success of it.

Of course FF could have avoided this if they hadn't burned their bridges with SF, that was the one situation where they would have got what they wanted, a chance to lead a government and also have the chance that SF could suffer a Labour type disaster next time, thus avoiding long term FF wipeout, but they were too pigheaded to see that.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fruice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2020 at 11:52am
I would feel that FF/FG won’t go near SF.
The biggest problem I think either FF/FG  would face today is another election this year they wouldn’t lose many more seats but SF would run more candidates and end up with 50 plus candidates 
mainly at the expense of the other smaller parties.

FF/FG know this better than anyone and if they both really don’t want SF in power will come to some agreement around the formation of a Government and give them 5 years to appease some of the swing voters on key issues such as housing, health, childcare etc.
In the hope that in 5 years time these voters will have seen the benefits from their time in Government and vote for them rather than SF and thus reducing SF numbers.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2020 at 12:02pm
Originally posted by Het-field Het-field wrote:

Originally posted by Devrozex Devrozex wrote:

Originally posted by sid waddell sid waddell wrote:

Of course FF could have avoided this if they hadn't burned their bridges with SF, that was the one situation where they would have got what they wanted, a chance to lead a government and also have the chance that SF could suffer a Labour type disaster next time, thus avoiding long term FF wipeout, but they were too pigheaded to see that.
 
I think if they had a clear numerical advantage over SF they would have considered the possibility - but given they only hold one extra seat over them you're very much in rotating Taoiseach territory and they clearly didn't fancy that. If things went wrong in that scenario it would potentially lead to their mutually assured destruction with SF, as opposed to allowing them to throw SF under the bus Labour-style.

I think this is it, in a nutshell. It would be less coalition and more power-sharing, with both parties eventually throwing pot shots at each other. It’s harder to mudguard a party that has Governmental experience in the North, and even harder when they have almost the same number of seats.

This is slightly unchartered territory, and for a number of reasons. First, SF having the largest share of the vote which complicates the allocation of the top jobs. Second, FG have an appetite for opposition, so it makes no odds to them. Third, FF can have power, but at a price not previously paid in coalition governments. Fourth, no setup of two parties can create a stable coalition.

Also, I’d be wary of assuming that Government in a FF/FG confidence and supply arrangement would ultimately be the destruction of both parties. Historically when votes and power were on the line FF would always go for loosening purse strings and repeating the amounts spent on various areas, while also finding ways of popping a few bob into peoples pockets through things like SSIA. In five years time if amounts of social housing was built etc, SF wouldn’t have the same clothes. Also, over the past six months SF’s vote has dramatically dropped and risen, so there isn’t a possibility that it might moderate downwards but not hugely.  
That's to assume that policies are the most important thing in politics. They actually aren't. One major thing SF have in their favour, and which an FFG coalition will completely cement, is the idea of the cartel, that only FFG can be in government.

People are totally sick of this. They often don't know precisely why, but they are. 

How many governments have actually increased or at least held steady their number of seats at the following election? I can think of only one - the 1997-2002 FF/PD government, and that had a particularly gifted operator in terms of manipulating public opinion at its head. The current FFG has nobody like that. FFG currently have 73 seats between them. If they form a government, you're likely looking at south of 70 next time even if it goes relatively well.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Het-field Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2020 at 2:01pm
Originally posted by sid waddell sid waddell wrote:

Originally posted by Het-field Het-field wrote:

Originally posted by Devrozex Devrozex wrote:

Originally posted by sid waddell sid waddell wrote:

Of course FF could have avoided this if they hadn't burned their bridges with SF, that was the one situation where they would have got what they wanted, a chance to lead a government and also have the chance that SF could suffer a Labour type disaster next time, thus avoiding long term FF wipeout, but they were too pigheaded to see that.
 
I think if they had a clear numerical advantage over SF they would have considered the possibility - but given they only hold one extra seat over them you're very much in rotating Taoiseach territory and they clearly didn't fancy that. If things went wrong in that scenario it would potentially lead to their mutually assured destruction with SF, as opposed to allowing them to throw SF under the bus Labour-style.

I think this is it, in a nutshell. It would be less coalition and more power-sharing, with both parties eventually throwing pot shots at each other. It’s harder to mudguard a party that has Governmental experience in the North, and even harder when they have almost the same number of seats.

This is slightly unchartered territory, and for a number of reasons. First, SF having the largest share of the vote which complicates the allocation of the top jobs. Second, FG have an appetite for opposition, so it makes no odds to them. Third, FF can have power, but at a price not previously paid in coalition governments. Fourth, no setup of two parties can create a stable coalition.

Also, I’d be wary of assuming that Government in a FF/FG confidence and supply arrangement would ultimately be the destruction of both parties. Historically when votes and power were on the line FF would always go for loosening purse strings and repeating the amounts spent on various areas, while also finding ways of popping a few bob into peoples pockets through things like SSIA. In five years time if amounts of social housing was built etc, SF wouldn’t have the same clothes. Also, over the past six months SF’s vote has dramatically dropped and risen, so there isn’t a possibility that it might moderate downwards but not hugely.  
That's to assume that policies are the most important thing in politics. They actually aren't. One major thing SF have in their favour, and which an FFG coalition will completely cement, is the idea of the cartel, that only FFG can be in government.

People are totally sick of this. They often don't know precisely why, but they are. 

How many governments have actually increased or at least held steady their number of seats at the following election? I can think of only one - the 1997-2002 FF/PD government, and that had a particularly gifted operator in terms of manipulating public opinion at its head. The current FFG has nobody like that. FFG currently have 73 seats between them. If they form a government, you're likely looking at south of 70 next time even if it goes relatively well.



It wouldn’t be policy as much as a sop to the electorate. Try to make them feel like the administration is doing something for them, making their lives a little easier, or are actually thinking about them. The IMF regulated budgets and subsequent FG style budgets couldn’t and didn’t do that respectively. We’ve certainly entered the realm of slogan politics. In this election it was to portmanteau (if used correctly here) the phrase FFG. The merger of the two parties into one handy acronym and tagging on something like “Say not to FFG”, or “No More FFG”. It was easy for all parties outside of that to rally to it, and after years of austere budgets, and the message of “change” which has underpinned the vast majority of international political outcomes (both good and bad) over the past decade, worked. It was akin to “Get Brexit Done”.

Now, I’m still convinced there is a staunch FF/FG vote. I also believe there are constituencies with smaller seat numbers who aren’t going to kybosh their high profile TDs, for the local
SF representative who may have zero impact on local politics, or even more to the point, no local profile. The SF brand is useful st the moment, but that won’t guarantee seats in dead constituencies, and more to the point it won’t guarantee taking them off FF/FG. They might increase numbers themselves, but if at the expense of left wing candidates their transfers elected, the overall thrust stays the same.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Stickittotheman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2020 at 2:24pm
Maybe the southern guys would know more about grassroots than me but if Fianna Fail goes into coalition with Fine Gael would there be a grassroots revolt and a raft of resignations from old style FF type people like O'Cuiv? There don't seem to be many good options at the moment for them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Het-field Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2020 at 2:37pm
Originally posted by Stickittotheman Stickittotheman wrote:

Maybe the southern guys would know more about grassroots than me but if Fianna Fail goes into coalition with Fine Gael would there be a grassroots revolt and a raft of resignations from old style FF type people like O'Cuiv? There don't seem to be many good options at the moment for them.

I don’t think you’d have a revolt, but I’m not surprised by O’Cuiv’s opposition. In spite of FF being in his lineage and “DNA”, he has not always been in line with the party, be it on matters related to the Repeal of the 8th Amendment, or matters of EU integration when put to the public vote. It would undoubtedly rankle with him if FF & FG coalesced, but even when at odds with the party in the past he has always come back to the fold.


Edited by Het-field - 14 Feb 2020 at 2:37pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Trigboy 10 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2020 at 2:55pm
Originally posted by Het-field Het-field wrote:

Originally posted by Stickittotheman Stickittotheman wrote:

Maybe the southern guys would know more about grassroots than me but if Fianna Fail goes into coalition with Fine Gael would there be a grassroots revolt and a raft of resignations from old style FF type people like O'Cuiv? There don't seem to be many good options at the moment for them.

I don’t think you’d have a revolt, but I’m not surprised by O’Cuiv’s opposition. In spite of FF being in his lineage and “DNA”, he has not always been in line with the party, be it on matters related to the Repeal of the 8th Amendment, or matters of EU integration when put to the public vote. It would undoubtedly rankle with him if FF & FG coalesced, but even when at odds with the party in the past he has always come back to the fold.
Don’t think he’ll come back this time and he doesn’t seem to like Martin either! I’d say he’d possibly take a few others with him but FF would still have the Greens and the SD.

Edited by Trigboy 10 - 14 Feb 2020 at 2:56pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NewtNewbie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2020 at 4:17pm
A David Baddiel-presented BBC2 documentary  at 9PM 17 February prominently features far-right Irish Holocaust-denier, Dermot Mulqueen, who apparently has over 7000 followers on Facebook.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pre Madonna Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2020 at 4:22pm
Originally posted by NewtNewbie NewtNewbie wrote:

A David Baddiel-presented BBC2 documentary  at 9PM 17 February prominently features far-right Irish Holocaust-denier, Dermot Mulqueen, who apparently has over 7000 followers on Facebook.
Does he black up for this?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NewtNewbie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2020 at 4:40pm
Originally posted by pre Madonna pre Madonna wrote:

Originally posted by NewtNewbie NewtNewbie wrote:

A David Baddiel-presented BBC2 documentary  at 9PM 17 February prominently features far-right Irish Holocaust-denier, Dermot Mulqueen, who apparently has over 7000 followers on Facebook.
Does he black up for this?

Who, Baddiel?

He's the kind of liberal who venerates the likes of Trudeau, so I wouldn't rule it out.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pre Madonna Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2020 at 5:08pm
Originally posted by NewtNewbie NewtNewbie wrote:

Originally posted by pre Madonna pre Madonna wrote:

Originally posted by NewtNewbie NewtNewbie wrote:

A David Baddiel-presented BBC2 documentary  at 9PM 17 February prominently features far-right Irish Holocaust-denier, Dermot Mulqueen, who apparently has over 7000 followers on Facebook.
Does he black up for this?

Who, Baddiel?

He's the kind of liberal who venerates the likes of Trudeau, so I wouldn't rule it out.
He blacked up on Fantasy Football to mock Jason Lee. I get people do stupid things and comedians are always going to thread near the line, but he still refuses to apologise for it while calling people racist for how they pronounce a name. An absolute hypocrite, like most liberals.
Greed has won, big finance has won. Whatever small role elite clubs still play in the local communities from which they grew is dwarfed now by their position as global brands.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Het-field Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2020 at 5:23pm
FG look like they’re are ruling out another confidence and supply.

Edited by Het-field - 14 Feb 2020 at 5:23pm
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