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pre Madonna View Drop Down
Robbie Keane
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pre Madonna Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2020 at 7:48pm
Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

Originally posted by pre Madonna pre Madonna wrote:

Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

I would much rather the choice we have here in Ireland than in the UK or the States or France.  In addition our PR system is far better.
I would spoil my vote if I was at home. There is parties here and in France I could vote for with a clear conscience.

PM why couldn’t you vote for the Socialist Party, the Workers Party, People Before Profit, Solidarity, Rise it some of the left wing Independents.  
Whatever about any misgivings I might have about any of them, none of them have are likely to stand in my home constituency, apart from the independents, who are usually diabolical.
Greed has won, big finance has won. Whatever small role elite clubs still play in the local communities from which they grew is dwarfed now by their position as global brands.
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Jack Charlton
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Het-field Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2020 at 7:50pm
Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

Originally posted by Het-field Het-field wrote:

Originally posted by Cabra Hoop Cabra Hoop wrote:

Get the sense that FF will get more seats than FG. Can see a lot of FF's who lent their vote to FG returning to the fold.
The big question is do FG have it in them to play a supporting role to FF in any new supply and confidence agreement.

I think that will be evaluated and that annoying phrase “the National Interest” will be invoked. Either to explain the reasoning for staying together or splitting up.

It suited FF and FG last time. It kept Kenny as Taoiseach and it out FF back in a position of influence within a single electoral cycle. This time FF stand to gain more seats and FG lose Government. I’m not sure FG will play the “national interest” card to prop up FF, especially if the election is dirty.

I’m not sure a coalition is possible simply as there is no interest. Back in the day the centre left Labour Party and centre right PDs made ideal coalition partners. But the latter doesn’t exist and the former remains so badly burnt that they won’t do it again. Ditto the Greens who were chastened by the experience. Sinn Fein will undoubtedly want bigger numbers and influence before they do it. And the freak show parties are just perma opposition who won’t discuss it. That leaves the Independent Alliance and the SDs and FG/FF sympathetic TDS to do the business.


Rubbish the only reason there was no coalition the last time and again may not be this time is the numbers and the FF AND FG do not want to go in with sin Fein or with each other’s.  

If the numbers allow it the larger party of FG and FF will lead a coalition with a mix of greens labour and social Democrats and or independents. 

The numbers existed to prop up parties, but nobody wanted to write their own death note, and it would have required mass cooperation. The lack of interest came first which gave rise to the lack of numbers.


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Robbie Keane
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baldrick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2020 at 8:02pm
Originally posted by Het-field Het-field wrote:

Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

Originally posted by Het-field Het-field wrote:

Originally posted by Cabra Hoop Cabra Hoop wrote:

Get the sense that FF will get more seats than FG. Can see a lot of FF's who lent their vote to FG returning to the fold.
The big question is do FG have it in them to play a supporting role to FF in any new supply and confidence agreement.

I think that will be evaluated and that annoying phrase “the National Interest” will be invoked. Either to explain the reasoning for staying together or splitting up.

It suited FF and FG last time. It kept Kenny as Taoiseach and it out FF back in a position of influence within a single electoral cycle. This time FF stand to gain more seats and FG lose Government. I’m not sure FG will play the “national interest” card to prop up FF, especially if the election is dirty.

I’m not sure a coalition is possible simply as there is no interest. Back in the day the centre left Labour Party and centre right PDs made ideal coalition partners. But the latter doesn’t exist and the former remains so badly burnt that they won’t do it again. Ditto the Greens who were chastened by the experience. Sinn Fein will undoubtedly want bigger numbers and influence before they do it. And the freak show parties are just perma opposition who won’t discuss it. That leaves the Independent Alliance and the SDs and FG/FF sympathetic TDS to do the business.


Rubbish the only reason there was no coalition the last time and again may not be this time is the numbers and the FF AND FG do not want to go in with sin Fein or with each other’s.  

If the numbers allow it the larger party of FG and FF will lead a coalition with a mix of greens labour and social Democrats and or independents. 

The numbers existed to prop up parties, but nobody wanted to write their own death note, and it would have required mass cooperation. The lack of interest came first which gave rise to the lack of numbers.




There was no numbers to form a coalition without ff and fg joining each other or Sinn Fein.   The smaller centre  parties such as greens labour and social democrats were only going to go into government rather than support a minority gov.  They will all go back in again if numbers suit.  
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Jack Charlton
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Het-field Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2020 at 8:41pm
Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

Originally posted by Het-field Het-field wrote:

Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

Originally posted by Het-field Het-field wrote:

Originally posted by Cabra Hoop Cabra Hoop wrote:

Get the sense that FF will get more seats than FG. Can see a lot of FF's who lent their vote to FG returning to the fold.
The big question is do FG have it in them to play a supporting role to FF in any new supply and confidence agreement.

I think that will be evaluated and that annoying phrase “the National Interest” will be invoked. Either to explain the reasoning for staying together or splitting up.

It suited FF and FG last time. It kept Kenny as Taoiseach and it out FF back in a position of influence within a single electoral cycle. This time FF stand to gain more seats and FG lose Government. I’m not sure FG will play the “national interest” card to prop up FF, especially if the election is dirty.

I’m not sure a coalition is possible simply as there is no interest. Back in the day the centre left Labour Party and centre right PDs made ideal coalition partners. But the latter doesn’t exist and the former remains so badly burnt that they won’t do it again. Ditto the Greens who were chastened by the experience. Sinn Fein will undoubtedly want bigger numbers and influence before they do it. And the freak show parties are just perma opposition who won’t discuss it. That leaves the Independent Alliance and the SDs and FG/FF sympathetic TDS to do the business.


Rubbish the only reason there was no coalition the last time and again may not be this time is the numbers and the FF AND FG do not want to go in with sin Fein or with each other’s.  

If the numbers allow it the larger party of FG and FF will lead a coalition with a mix of greens labour and social Democrats and or independents. 

The numbers existed to prop up parties, but nobody wanted to write their own death note, and it would have required mass cooperation. The lack of interest came first which gave rise to the lack of numbers.




There was no numbers to form a coalition without ff and fg joining each other or Sinn Fein.   The smaller centre  parties such as greens labour and social democrats were only going to go into government rather than support a minority gov.  They will all go back in again if numbers suit.  

I’m honestly not sure. With SF covering certain common ground the LP could be absolutely dispensed with and the rebuilding job would be almost unworkable. The GP are also going to be wary, and there is this “anti capitalist” wing that to me seems more suitable to Solidarity or RISE, and they’ll be consulted.

I could see the SD’s though. Especially as Murphy is an excellent yet pragmatic politician who I feel would see government as the way to get things done.
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Robbie Keane
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baldrick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2020 at 9:41pm
2 seats wont be much help.   The economy wont be growing forever.  The GP believe we have 10 years to sort the place out so they will vote to go into coalition esp if it's part of a 4 party government.  Same with LP. 
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Jack Charlton
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Het-field Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2020 at 10:19pm
Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

2 seats wont be much help.   The economy wont be growing forever.  The GP believe we have 10 years to sort the place out so they will vote to go into coalition esp if it's part of a 4 party government.  Same with LP. 

Are you proposing a FG/FF/GP/LP administration? Or one with confidence and supply from one of the big parties?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote deise316 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2020 at 10:47pm
May change, but from this far out it looks like the current confidence & supply in reverse is the most likely outcome. If both FG and FF are adamant they won't deal with SF, its either the confidence & supply (with FF likely being the largest this time around) or some form of very shaky numbers wise FF/LAB/GRN/IND alliance/SD/Single issue lads/chancers like Lowry - type arrangement. The more of those that are needed to form a government the less likely it is to last long.

Don't buy the notion Greens or Lab won't go into government either, Green supporters would be voting for them with the intention they try to get into government in order to set an agenda around the Environment/Climate change, and preferably have an immediate effect, while there's so few Labour TD's actually left (ha, unintentional wordplay there)  the odds are that they won't give a single bollix about the longer term aim of rebuilding the party, just get one or 2 of them into Mercs in the short term and take what they can get out of it. 

If they chose the right Minister(s) to represent Labour in a Government and get a suitable portfolio to match (Housing be a good one, difficult enough, but probably not too difficult to improve on the current bunch)- that's probably as good a way for them to return to the public political consciousness over the next few years as mouthing some oul guff from the other side of the Dáil that we've all heard before anyway. 

When ya look at the personal success (to their pensions) of Ross, Halligan & Boxer Moran from a very small pool (all became Ministers/Mins of State) of Independent Alliance TD's, it isn't too difficult to see a similar group forming once elections are completed, and likewise, the SD's might expand at that stage without getting any of their actual candidates elected. 



 

Picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.....
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Robbie Keane
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baldrick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2020 at 10:56pm
Originally posted by Het-field Het-field wrote:

Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

2 seats wont be much help.   The economy wont be growing forever.  The GP believe we have 10 years to sort the place out so they will vote to go into coalition esp if it's part of a 4 party government.  Same with LP. 

Are you proposing a FG/FF/GP/LP administration? Or one with confidence and supply from one of the big parties?

I am not proposing anything.

I am saying it will either be a min gov with ff or fg in power or it will be a coalition.led by ff or fg backed up by greens labour and social Democrats and maybe some independents.  

That's my reading of what I think is likely. 
AKA pedantic kunt
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Robbie Keane
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baldrick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2020 at 10:58pm
Deise beat me to it. 
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Jack Charlton
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Het-field Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2020 at 11:02pm
Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

Originally posted by Het-field Het-field wrote:

Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

2 seats wont be much help.   The economy wont be growing forever.  The GP believe we have 10 years to sort the place out so they will vote to go into coalition esp if it's part of a 4 party government.  Same with LP. 

Are you proposing a FG/FF/GP/LP administration? Or one with confidence and supply from one of the big parties?

I am not proposing anything.

I am saying it will either be a min gov with ff or fg in power or it will be a coalition.led by ff or fg backed up by greens labour and social Democrats and maybe some independents.  

That's my reading of what I think is likely. 

Okay. I guess it is possible.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Het-field Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jan 2020 at 10:47am
RTE reporting that the announcement could be made today, which would mean a 7th February election.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote The Huntacha Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jan 2020 at 11:09am
Originally posted by Cabra Hoop Cabra Hoop wrote:

Get the sense that FF will get more seats than FG. Can see a lot of FF's who lent their vote to FG returning to the fold.
The big question is do FG have it in them to play a supporting role to FF in any new supply and confidence agreement.

Can't disagree with that. FF have been able to stand back and watch FG mess up time and time again over the last 2 years with the housing, healthcare and homelessness situation. 

I don't for one second believe that FF will do any better in relation to those matters but FG have done such a poor job that I'd be shocked if they are the majority party going forward.
 



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Robbie Keane
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pre Madonna Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jan 2020 at 11:21am
And then, after FF have been found out to be corrupt, self-serving bastards it will be FG’s turn again...
Greed has won, big finance has won. Whatever small role elite clubs still play in the local communities from which they grew is dwarfed now by their position as global brands.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AnCearrbhach Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jan 2020 at 11:26am
Originally posted by The Huntacha The Huntacha wrote:

Originally posted by Cabra Hoop Cabra Hoop wrote:

Get the sense that FF will get more seats than FG. Can see a lot of FF's who lent their vote to FG returning to the fold.
The big question is do FG have it in them to play a supporting role to FF in any new supply and confidence agreement.

Can't disagree with that. FF have been able to stand back and watch FG mess up time and time again over the last 2 years with the housing, healthcare and homelessness situation. 

I don't for one second believe that FF will do any better in relation to those matters but FG have done such a poor job that I'd be shocked if they are the majority party going forward.
 




FF were supporting FG in government the entire time. They literally couldn't have done it without them. 
Aithníonn ciaróg ciaróg eile.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baldrick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jan 2020 at 12:07pm
Saturday election. Same day as the Ireland v Wales rugby.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sham157 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jan 2020 at 1:35pm
Originally posted by pre Madonna pre Madonna wrote:

And then, after FF have been found out to be corrupt, self-serving bastards it will be FG’s turn again...
depressing isnt it. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Het-field Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jan 2020 at 1:41pm
In reality, the best outcome is a necessary coalition which would tag the GP or Lab onto one of the inevitable winners, but with the coalition numbers actually necessitating full cooperation and smaller party power. Even better if the SD’s joined up a form of Rainbow Coalition.

This will then create an opposition which is one of the major players, and will expect more from the Me Feiners. The Independents could form a powerful block too, which might be influential in creating a government. Hopefully all the Trots get bumped out.


Edited by Het-field - 14 Jan 2020 at 1:41pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Deane Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jan 2020 at 2:51pm
Think the Saturday election is a good idea
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