EURO 2024 Qualifier GROUP B

Paulie wrote: dangere_here wrote: Paulie wrote: VanBosch wrote: BrendanD88 wrote: Just had a look at all the other groups, some average top and second seeds and we manage to get both France and Netherlands   Ourselves and Ukraine can feel hard done by. A as no Greece as a 4th seed was rough too. Whatever tiny chance we have of getting out of the group was helped by us getting Greece. We needed a 4th seed that could conceivably take 2 or even 3 points off one of the big two. Of course we'd need to take 6 points from Greece to get the benefit of that. I realise it's Fantasy Island stuff but I need at least 1% hope at the start of the group. Cant agree with that Paulie, Greece are exactly the sort of team we will exchange two 1-1s or 0-0s with and then call it a hard earned point and so on. I don't see the Greeks taking points off anyone else bar ourselves and the rock. I also can see them doing us away from home possibly. We are no great shakes, neither are they, but they are in a far more relaxed position in regards to having a playoff than we are, and that will likely play out over the group. We're two very similar sides actually, but I wouldn't be expecting them to give up 3 points like Scotland did last summer So how would it benefit us in terms of boosting any tiny chance we have of qualifying if we had a weaker 4th seed that we can absolutely guarantee France and Holland would beat home and away? We will not be able to get enough points to qualify just on the basis of our own results. Even if either France or Holland won every fixture in the group the other team of those two would still be able to get enough points to finish 2nd if there was a handy 4th seed. I understand that the chances of us taking 6 points from Greece is very slim but my point is that if we are to have any chance of qualifying we need the 4th seed team to take points from one of the top 2, basically whichever of those 2 is weakest. I do not see how a weaker 4th seed helps us to qualify (however unlikely that scenario might be regardless).

I'd argue neither option benefits it. Look at the 2002 campaign as the template for the only way we are going to succeed here. We need to win at least one match against the big two, avoid losing the other games against them and match or better their results against the rest while having a decent goal difference. If we are relying on Greece to take points of the big two we are already out for the count. 

The only way we're going to be successful here is by having the best campaign since 02 and pulling off numerous shock results that involve other managers losing their jobs over. Kenny needs to go for the jugular now. 

You Tell Me wrote: The statistics company, Gracenote, have done some analysis on the playoff picture - which as we know is based on the Nations League placings, not the qualification groups. Based on our performance and final position in the Nations League they are now giving us only an 18% chance of making the playoffs. So less than a 1 in 5 chance now of even getting into the playoffs, never mind qualifying from them. So it's looking like it's all going to be down to our performance in Group B, we've already blown the playoffs most likely.

Fruice wrote: You Tell Me wrote: The statistics company, Gracenote, have done some analysis on the playoff picture - which as we know is based on the Nations League placings, not the qualification groups. Based on our performance and final position in the Nations League they are now giving us only an 18% chance of making the playoffs. So less than a 1 in 5 chance now of even getting into the playoffs, never mind qualifying from them. So it's looking like it's all going to be down to our performance in Group B, we've already blown the playoffs most likely. That’s fairly sobering news if we have a poor start should Kenny get the road or should he be allowed see the campaign out? These conversations must be going on within the FAI.

I'd imagine they'll leave him in place til the contract runs out but hopefully start looking at potential candidates after we lose the second match, whenever that is doesn't really matter. But changing horses say in June would be a disaster, new manager would be rushed in, unable to qualify and even unable to show a turn around as he will be up against France and the Dutch 

The real question is: what are the circumstances where Kenny can keep his job if we don't qualify? Presumably finishing ahead of Greece is a red line for the FAI to show progress, then maybe taking at least one/two/three points from the games against the top 2?

Edited by dangere_here - 23 Mar 2023 at 10:27am

The Dutch down to bare bones for tomorrow night's game.

Edited by Maccatacca - 23 Mar 2023 at 5:52pm

Maccatacca wrote: The Dutch down to bare bones for tomorrow night's game. Details from AP below: Liverpool forward Cody Gakpo, Bayern Munich defender Matthijs de Ligt and three other Netherlands players have a virus and will miss the Euro 2024 qualifier against France, the Dutch federation said Thursday.  The Netherlands were already without Barcelona playmaker Frenkie de Jong and winger Steven Bergwijn due to injuries for the match against the World Cup finalists at the Stade de France on Friday.  They will now also have to do without 23-year-old Gakpo, who has netted four Premier League goals since joining Liverpool in January from PSV Eindhoven after he shone at the World Cup for the Dutch. Gakpo, De Ligt, Newcastle United's Sven Botman, Anderlecht goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen and Joey Veerman from PSV Eindhoven all had to leave the Dutch training camp.

lassassinblanc wrote: Roberto Baggio wrote: Maccatacca wrote: The Dutch down to bare bones for tomorrow night's game. Details from AP below: Liverpool forward Cody Gakpo, Bayern Munich defender Matthijs de Ligt and three other Netherlands players have a virus and will miss the Euro 2024 qualifier against France, the Dutch federation said Thursday.  The Netherlands were already without Barcelona playmaker Frenkie de Jong and winger Steven Bergwijn due to injuries for the match against the World Cup finalists at the Stade de France on Friday.  They will now also have to do without 23-year-old Gakpo, who has netted four Premier League goals since joining Liverpool in January from PSV Eindhoven after he shone at the World Cup for the Dutch. Gakpo, De Ligt, Newcastle United's Sven Botman, Anderlecht goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen and Joey Veerman from PSV Eindhoven all had to leave the Dutch training camp. Shame we didn’t start with them at home  Tbf they've been able to bring in Inter Milan and Bayern Munich players as replacements so hardly scrapping the barrel

kevin100 wrote: I have given proper criticism to the team after last nights effort so this isn’t a lowering of standards etc.  One thing I will say about Latvia is they were in WC Qualification against Holland,Norway and Turkey in the last campaign and got draws away to both Norway and Turkey and didn’t lose by more then 2 goals in any game.  They are obviously poor but like a lot of minnows are definitely better coached in the modern day and not as bad as one might presume.

 

Edited by kevin100 - 23 Mar 2023 at 8:31pm

Given's zimmerframe wrote: I hope the dutch and the french have a mass brawl tomorrow, 5 red cards, 6 yellows, a french anelka style mutiny against deshamp and some match fixing allegations to follow. Would set us up nicely to scutter a draw.

Artie Ziff wrote: dangere_here wrote: Artie Ziff wrote: dangere_here wrote: Paulie wrote: VanBosch wrote: BrendanD88 wrote: Just had a look at all the other groups, some average top and second seeds and we manage to get both France and Netherlands   Ourselves and Ukraine can feel hard done by. A as no Greece as a 4th seed was rough too. Whatever tiny chance we have of getting out of the group was helped by us getting Greece. We needed a 4th seed that could conceivably take 2 or even 3 points off one of the big two. Of course we'd need to take 6 points from Greece to get the benefit of that. I realise it's Fantasy Island stuff but I need at least 1% hope at the start of the group. Cant agree with that Paulie, Greece are exactly the sort of team we will exchange two 1-1s or 0-0s with and then call it a hard earned point and so on. I don't see the Greeks taking points off anyone else bar ourselves and the rock. I also can see them doing us away from home possibly. We are no great shakes, neither are they, but they are in a far more relaxed position in regards to having a playoff than we are, and that will likely play out over the group. We're two very similar sides actually, but I wouldn't be expecting them to give up 3 points like Scotland did last summer The commentator had said that Greece have only lost 1 home qualifier to Spain in the past 3 or 4 years. So you can park that assumption that the Greeks will be giving up 3 points easily to France and Holland.  Here are their results  Spain were the only decent team they played since then, they got a good win against Sweden but then drew with Georgia and Kosovo. Plus they dropped points to Liechtenstein, Malta and a few others recently.  While it's nothing amazing it's a decent home record. The Greeks will likely get a draw or a win against one of the top three, and we will probably too. I don't see either France or Holland winning all their games against us or Greece. And I don't see either us or Greece getting anywhere near them for the top 2 places.  But we've a few day yet before that crushing reality begins. So for now I'll enjoy my sliver of yah never know this time it could be different