Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Good Article here from the FT with maps.

https://www.ft.com/content/4351d5b0-0888-4b47-9368-6bc4dfbccbf5?segmentID=4cc83cbd-00b2-0eef-d1f7-f57621fd8a1e&fbclid=IwAR0ECWzTvWX6BFL1VtMvT56CiRai3-Ppi74HmqpfLFbkvuvbCigC2t0YndM

I could agree with you but then we'd both be wrong.

And tough laws for those who don't fight i.e. bullet to the head.

I could agree with you but then we'd both be wrong.

B6 6HE wrote:

zizu Kilbane wrote:

Putin massively upping the antie this morning. 300k reserves called up to the army

Getting scary now.

Its a huge gamble. Civilians come back in coffins and his popularity will turn sour. He wins and he's a hero.

We need sensible diplomacy. This Big Man crap on either side is disastrous.

Couldn't agree more. It wont end well.

MayoMark wrote:

How can you honestly have sensible diplomacy with someone who never uphold their side of the bargain? Who continuoulsy and systemically lie? And thereaten the world with nuclear weapons?

Honestly. I don't know how you're meant to be able to negotiate with that.

I don't believe either side has a good track reckon of upholding their sides of the bargain.

So England decides to invade the 26 counties tomorrow, you suggest we should negotiate with them? We’ll give them some, just not to escalate things. We can definitely trust them then.

YBIG Quiz Champion 2016, 2017 & 2018.

As You Were
Three in a row

I think they'll react by arming them further. The lend lease with America starts in 10 days. It will be interesting to see what they announce. Realistically the Ukrainians will be able to liberate Kherson city and part's of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in the coming months. So it won't take long to see what his reaction is to "Russia" getting invaded.

I think it will be business as usual but after suffering massive losses this move was necessary as he couldn't replace the massive number of dead and injured soldier's.

Armenia, Kazakhstan and Vietnam have stopped accepting the Mir payment system. Russia isolation is escalating.

Over a thousand arrested in Moscow protests.

Why didn't they care enough to protest last week before forced mobilisation?

Cabra Hoop wrote:

Think the 4 forthcoming referenda (assuming he gets the right result) puts the ball back into Ukraine/NATOs court. I think Putins gambling that the Ukraine forces won't drive into the post referenda annexed regions, if so he'll say that this is an attack on Russian land and will escalate this from a special military operation to a patriotic war defending the motherland. He knows the weather is about to change and things will quite down a bit in winter, and he can then claim to have liberated the Russian enclaves in Ukraine, and proclaim this as a win.The mobilisation is part of the gamble. How NATO responds after the referenda is the unknown, and more to the point how will Ukraine react to NATOs position. Getting worrying now.

the ukrainians have been striking crimea (a legal part of the russian federation according to the russians) and other parts of the russian federation for months. it would be hard for him to regard an attack on the newly aquired territories as escalation.

as for the weather well......if last february is anything to go by the russian troops are in for a horrendous winter. they are poorly equipped with inadequate winter gear which will lead to many dying from exposure or if they're lucky frostbite (as was seen around kyiv at the start of the war). meanwhile the ukrainians are kitted to the nines which makes a big difference to morale. claiming the new territories means jot to anyone outside of his regime however the bad weather is still over a month away...a lot could happen between now and then.

as for the conscripts, canon fodder. having said that don't be surprised if you see the ukrainians launch another rapid counteroffensive in the next few weeks as hinted in my previous point. getting to the dnieper river could be war ending and it would happen long before the bulk of the new conscripts enter the fray.

given the statements made by the leaders of nato countries today it appears nobody is paying heed to putins intention to carry out referenda or threats of nuclear attack. doing so all along is what has got us into this mess in the first place.

Edited by colemanY2K - 22 Sep 2022 at 12:33am

"One of the dominant facts in English life during the past three quarters of a century has been the decay of ability in the ruling class." Orwell, 1942.