Author |
Topic Search Topic Options
|
B6 6HE
Liam Brady
Joined: 25 Aug 2021
Status: Offline
Points: 1028
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: 20 May 2022 at 12:37pm |
colemanY2K wrote:
B6 6HE wrote:
Roberto_Carlow wrote:
Putting capital controls on your currency will make it strong short term, but its not an effective strategy long term for the ruble to remain at its current level.
We are also right at the beginning of sanctions, the longer these go on a country who imports at the level Russia does will also see significant problems within its economy. Job security fear must be at an all time high. |
European economy is surely at risk if there is long term sanctions on their primary energy provider?
The average European worker is going to pay hard for these sanctions
The sanctions caused a huge tumble in ruble initially. It is noteworthy how it has rebounded. That coupled with the skyrocketing inflation in Europe. Its not just Russia that will be affected.
|
1. REPowerEU - just yesterday the european commission laid out plans to reduce consumption of russian gas across the bloc by 66% by the end of this year and break its dependence completely before 2027. how will it do this? by saving energy, finding alternate sources and speeding up the transition to renewables. google REPowerEU for the finer details.
2. 85% of europeans believe that the eu should reduce its dependency on russian gas and oil as soon as possible to support ukraine - the european commission
3. the ruble tumbled for a multitude of reasons linked to the invasion of ukraine. since you haven't answered my question i can tell you the strengthening of the russian currency is in part due to entities paying for russian energy in euros which the russians convert to rubles. as i previously stated this is not necessarily a good thing for russia.
|
Point 3 is valid.
Point 1 and 2 are much easier said than done.
How much extra are Europeans prepared to pay? Given that the cost of living is quickly becoming a serious crisis. And energy is an immediate necessity as opposed to something that can be delayed. We all agree that we reduce dependence but we are dependent nonetheless. And the alternatives are not immediate nor are they economically attractive. Is Saudi oil any more noble? And many of the 'green' options are nowhere near as green as many think.
To what extent are westerners prepared to reduce energy consumption?
I often wonder, if the average European consumer was given the direcr option of cheaper Russian fuel or a more expensive option, would they actually choose the alternative as a means to support Ukraine or would they follow the regularly seen sales option which is to choose the cheapest option.
Europe is now paying the price for energy dependence.
|
|
colemanY2K
Roy Keane
Fresh minty breath
Joined: 01 Mar 2010
Location: London
Status: Offline
Points: 14959
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: 20 May 2022 at 2:27pm |
B6 6HE wrote:
colemanY2K wrote:
B6 6HE wrote:
Roberto_Carlow wrote:
Putting capital controls on your currency will make it strong short term, but its not an effective strategy long term for the ruble to remain at its current level.
We are also right at the beginning of sanctions, the longer these go on a country who imports at the level Russia does will also see significant problems within its economy. Job security fear must be at an all time high. |
European economy is surely at risk if there is long term sanctions on their primary energy provider?
The average European worker is going to pay hard for these sanctions
The sanctions caused a huge tumble in ruble initially. It is noteworthy how it has rebounded. That coupled with the skyrocketing inflation in Europe. Its not just Russia that will be affected.
|
1. REPowerEU - just yesterday the european commission laid out plans to reduce consumption of russian gas across the bloc by 66% by the end of this year and break its dependence completely before 2027. how will it do this? by saving energy, finding alternate sources and speeding up the transition to renewables. google REPowerEU for the finer details.
2. 85% of europeans believe that the eu should reduce its dependency on russian gas and oil as soon as possible to support ukraine - the european commission
3. the ruble tumbled for a multitude of reasons linked to the invasion of ukraine. since you haven't answered my question i can tell you the strengthening of the russian currency is in part due to entities paying for russian energy in euros which the russians convert to rubles. as i previously stated this is not necessarily a good thing for russia.
|
Point 3 is valid.
Point 1 and 2 are much easier said than done.
How much extra are Europeans prepared to pay? Given that the cost of living is quickly becoming a serious crisis. And energy is an immediate necessity as opposed to something that can be delayed. We all agree that we reduce dependence but we are dependent nonetheless. And the alternatives are not immediate nor are they economically attractive. Is Saudi oil any more noble? And many of the 'green' options are nowhere near as green as many think.
To what extent are westerners prepared to reduce energy consumption?
I often wonder, if the average European consumer was given the direcr option of cheaper Russian fuel or a more expensive option, would they actually choose the alternative as a means to support Ukraine or would they follow the regularly seen sales option which is to choose the cheapest option.
Europe is now paying the price for energy dependence.
|
you're some man/woman for posing questions. "Europeans" are not one homogenous bloc. different eu countries will have different approaches to their energy needs ergo the energy crisis will affect europe in different ways. france for example have capped energy bill rises at 4%, finland which is likely to have its gas cut off today or tomorrow will import what it needs from sweden (around 5% of its total energy needs come from gas) while accelerating the switch to renewables, italy is buying more from algeria instead of russia, poland no longer buys its gas from russia and has restarted a pipeline construction project with norway, ireland will import LNG as and when its needed (a significant % of our gas comes from uk sources), i could go on.
while some countries and entities continue to buy gas from russia you have to bear in mind this is coming to an end as countries transition to other sources (e.g. algeria) for their fossil fuels while at the same time upping the rollout of renewables. as for the coming winter the european commission has set a target to up the reserves of gas in storage terminals to a minimum of 85% capacity before the cold weather arrives.
while a significant amount of carbon is used to produce solar panels and wind turbines they are however a much environmentally friendlier alternative to burning fossil fuels. by the way, just to correct you on one of your points, power generated from wind is much cheaper than power derived from fossil fuels or any other source of power for that matter.
|
"One of the dominant facts in English life during the past three quarters of a century has been the decay of ability in the ruling class." Orwell, 1942.
|
|
eireland
Ray Houghton
Joined: 12 Feb 2016
Status: Offline
Points: 4199
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: 21 May 2022 at 4:02pm |
It's hard to know what to believe and who has the upper hand. You watch Western and Ukrainian report's and you feel hopefully, then you follow Pro Russian report's and you feel despair. It sounds like absolutely hell in the Donbass and not too many positive report's coming from either side. I just hope they hold out and eventually break the Russian attack. The sooner more and stronger western weapons get to the front lines the better.
There's clearly not much fighting happening down south or in the Kerson region. Obviously there is some but both sides have committed the most in the Donbass. If the UA hold them back over the next month or two it will be a huge morale booster but if Russia pushes on and takes it will do the same for them. Putin would likely be happy to shut up shop and defend what they've taken which would be very difficult for the UA to ever take back.
Would he then shift focus to the south and try the Odessa? I'm sure he'd love to but again I think he'd settle for Kherson. So much is on the line over the coming months.
Edited by eireland - 21 May 2022 at 4:17pm
|
|
Deane
Liam Brady
Joined: 17 Oct 2014
Location: Co Down
Status: Offline
Points: 2945
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: 21 May 2022 at 4:22pm |
eireland wrote:
It's hard to know what to believe and who has the upper hand. You watch Western and Ukrainian report's and you feel hopefully, then you follow Pro Russian report's and you feel despair. It sounds like absolutely hell in the Donbass and not too many positive report's coming from either side. I just hope they hold out and eventually break the Russian attack. The sooner more and stronger western weapons get to the front lines the better.
There's clearly not much fighting happening down south or in the Kerson region. Obviously there is some but both sides have committed the most in the Donbass. If the UA hold them back over the next month or two it will be a huge morale booster but if Russia pushes on and takes it will do the same for them. Putin would likely be happy to shut up shop and defend what they've taken which would be very difficult for the UA to ever take back.
Would he then shift focus to the south and try the Odessa? I'm sure he'd love to but again I think he'd settle for Kherson. So much is on the line over the coming months. |
I did hear of a lot of donated weapons being captured by Russia, which is inevitable I suppose.
|
|
B6 6HE
Liam Brady
Joined: 25 Aug 2021
Status: Offline
Points: 1028
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: 21 May 2022 at 4:48pm |
eireland wrote:
It's hard to know what to believe and who has the upper hand. You watch Western and Ukrainian report's and you feel hopefully, then you follow Pro Russian report's and you feel despair. It sounds like absolutely hell in the Donbass and not too many positive report's coming from either side. I just hope they hold out and eventually break the Russian attack. The sooner more and stronger western weapons get to the front lines the better.
There's clearly not much fighting happening down south or in the Kerson region. Obviously there is some but both sides have committed the most in the Donbass. If the UA hold them back over the next month or two it will be a huge morale booster but if Russia pushes on and takes it will do the same for them. Putin would likely be happy to shut up shop and defend what they've taken which would be very difficult for the UA to ever take back.
Would he then shift focus to the south and try the Odessa? I'm sure he'd love to but again I think he'd settle for Kherson. So much is on the line over the coming months. |
Good analysis. The general theme of Western analysis had been of imminent Russian defeat with huge losses and economic collapse. That is clearly rubbish.
|
|
eireland
Ray Houghton
Joined: 12 Feb 2016
Status: Offline
Points: 4199
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: 22 May 2022 at 12:10am |
B6 6HE wrote:
eireland wrote:
It's hard to know what to believe and who has the upper hand. You watch Western and Ukrainian report's and you feel hopefully, then you follow Pro Russian report's and you feel despair. It sounds like absolutely hell in the Donbass and not too many positive report's coming from either side. I just hope they hold out and eventually break the Russian attack. The sooner more and stronger western weapons get to the front lines the better.
There's clearly not much fighting happening down south or in the Kerson region. Obviously there is some but both sides have committed the most in the Donbass. If the UA hold them back over the next month or two it will be a huge morale booster but if Russia pushes on and takes it will do the same for them. Putin would likely be happy to shut up shop and defend what they've taken which would be very difficult for the UA to ever take back.
Would he then shift focus to the south and try the Odessa? I'm sure he'd love to but again I think he'd settle for Kherson. So much is on the line over the coming months. |
Good analysis. The general theme of Western analysis had been of imminent Russian defeat with huge losses and economic collapse. That is clearly rubbish. |
I mean it's clearly a possibility even if the Western media pushes that agenda. Obviously it happening to Ukraine is a possibility too but like I said it's very hard to know which way it's going. Maybe nobody does for sure.
|
|
colemanY2K
Roy Keane
Fresh minty breath
Joined: 01 Mar 2010
Location: London
Status: Offline
Points: 14959
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: 22 May 2022 at 12:34am |
B6 6HE wrote:
eireland wrote:
It's hard to know what to believe and who has the upper hand. You watch Western and Ukrainian report's and you feel hopefully, then you follow Pro Russian report's and you feel despair. It sounds like absolutely hell in the Donbass and not too many positive report's coming from either side. I just hope they hold out and eventually break the Russian attack. The sooner more and stronger western weapons get to the front lines the better.
There's clearly not much fighting happening down south or in the Kerson region. Obviously there is some but both sides have committed the most in the Donbass. If the UA hold them back over the next month or two it will be a huge morale booster but if Russia pushes on and takes it will do the same for them. Putin would likely be happy to shut up shop and defend what they've taken which would be very difficult for the UA to ever take back.
Would he then shift focus to the south and try the Odessa? I'm sure he'd love to but again I think he'd settle for Kherson. So much is on the line over the coming months. |
Good analysis. The general theme of Western analysis had been of imminent Russian defeat with huge losses and economic collapse. That is clearly rubbish. |
they lost the battle of kyiv, they lost the battle of kharkiv and are stalled in the south and east, all the while the received wisdom is that the ukrainians are currently planning a major counteroffensive. things are hardly going swimmingly for the russians are they?
none of the western military analysts i follow or read have said russia faces imminent defeat but rather a gradual attrition of their forces would likely lead to some form of collapse in the summer / early autumn unless they come up with fresh troops to backfill the losses. the fact the russian parliament on friday said it is willing to consider a bill to call up over 40s for combat indicates russia is struggling to backfill these losses.
Edited by colemanY2K - 22 May 2022 at 1:24am
|
"One of the dominant facts in English life during the past three quarters of a century has been the decay of ability in the ruling class." Orwell, 1942.
|
|
Dalymount79
Liam Brady
Joined: 17 Oct 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 1544
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: 22 May 2022 at 8:20am |
Deane wrote:
eireland wrote:
It's hard to know what to believe and who has the upper hand. You watch Western and Ukrainian report's and you feel hopefully, then you follow Pro Russian report's and you feel despair. It sounds like absolutely hell in the Donbass and not too many positive report's coming from either side. I just hope they hold out and eventually break the Russian attack. The sooner more and stronger western weapons get to the front lines the better.
There's clearly not much fighting happening down south or in the Kerson region. Obviously there is some but both sides have committed the most in the Donbass. If the UA hold them back over the next month or two it will be a huge morale booster but if Russia pushes on and takes it will do the same for them. Putin would likely be happy to shut up shop and defend what they've taken which would be very difficult for the UA to ever take back.
Would he then shift focus to the south and try the Odessa? I'm sure he'd love to but again I think he'd settle for Kherson. So much is on the line over the coming months. |
I did hear of a lot of donated weapons being captured by Russia, which is inevitable I suppose. |
if true and a big if, it would be a concern to the donating nations. They would not want the Russians to be able to examine intact weapons. The donations would come with t and cs which I’d imagine includes where they are used and last resort destroy if there is a risk of the Russians getting hands on them. If the Ukraine Army are taking risks it could slow donations down. I’d be of the view this is Russian propaganda.
|
|
colemanY2K
Roy Keane
Fresh minty breath
Joined: 01 Mar 2010
Location: London
Status: Offline
Points: 14959
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: 22 May 2022 at 3:43pm |
B6 6HE wrote:
eireland wrote:
It's hard to know what to believe and who has the upper hand. You watch Western and Ukrainian report's and you feel hopefully, then you follow Pro Russian report's and you feel despair. It sounds like absolutely hell in the Donbass and not too many positive report's coming from either side. I just hope they hold out and eventually break the Russian attack. The sooner more and stronger western weapons get to the front lines the better.
There's clearly not much fighting happening down south or in the Kerson region. Obviously there is some but both sides have committed the most in the Donbass. If the UA hold them back over the next month or two it will be a huge morale booster but if Russia pushes on and takes it will do the same for them. Putin would likely be happy to shut up shop and defend what they've taken which would be very difficult for the UA to ever take back.
Would he then shift focus to the south and try the Odessa? I'm sure he'd love to but again I think he'd settle for Kherson. So much is on the line over the coming months. |
Good analysis. The general theme of Western analysis had been of imminent Russian defeat with huge losses and economic collapse. That is clearly rubbish. |
|
"One of the dominant facts in English life during the past three quarters of a century has been the decay of ability in the ruling class." Orwell, 1942.
|
|
colemanY2K
Roy Keane
Fresh minty breath
Joined: 01 Mar 2010
Location: London
Status: Offline
Points: 14959
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: 23 May 2022 at 8:34am |
B6 6HE wrote:
eireland wrote:
It's hard to know what to believe and who has the upper hand. You watch Western and Ukrainian report's and you feel hopefully, then you follow Pro Russian report's and you feel despair. It sounds like absolutely hell in the Donbass and not too many positive report's coming from either side. I just hope they hold out and eventually break the Russian attack. The sooner more and stronger western weapons get to the front lines the better.
There's clearly not much fighting happening down south or in the Kerson region. Obviously there is some but both sides have committed the most in the Donbass. If the UA hold them back over the next month or two it will be a huge morale booster but if Russia pushes on and takes it will do the same for them. Putin would likely be happy to shut up shop and defend what they've taken which would be very difficult for the UA to ever take back.
Would he then shift focus to the south and try the Odessa? I'm sure he'd love to but again I think he'd settle for Kherson. So much is on the line over the coming months. |
Good analysis. The general theme of Western analysis had been of imminent Russian defeat with huge losses and economic collapse. That is clearly rubbish. |
|
"One of the dominant facts in English life during the past three quarters of a century has been the decay of ability in the ruling class." Orwell, 1942.
|
|
eireland
Ray Houghton
Joined: 12 Feb 2016
Status: Offline
Points: 4199
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: 24 May 2022 at 3:17pm |
It looks like the Russians have forced the Ukrainians to retreat in a number of areas in the East. Could take until tomorrow to fully understand the situation. Looks likely they'll lose Luhansk to the Russians but will still hold a large chunk of the Donbass.
|
|
reddladd
Jack Charlton
Joined: 07 Oct 2008
Location: Virgin Islands
Status: Offline
Points: 6945
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: 24 May 2022 at 4:00pm |
|
I could agree with you but then we'd both be wrong.
|
|
BrendanD88
Roy Keane
99% of my posts are emojis
Joined: 29 Mar 2013
Location: Co Down
Status: Online
Points: 10008
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: 24 May 2022 at 4:48pm |
Wouldn’t it be great if Russia had the balls to stand face to face with us and fight. No weapons. No bombs. No dead children. Man to man!
|
|
Trap junior
Robbie Keane
YBIG Minister of Doom & Gloom
Joined: 25 Jan 2010
Location: Irish Riviera
Status: Offline
Points: 39824
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: 24 May 2022 at 5:22pm |
BrendanD88 wrote:
Wouldn’t it be great if Russia had the balls to stand face to face with us and fight. No weapons. No bombs. No dead children. Man to man! |
Bryan McFadden. Is that you?
|
Pied Piper to: Baldrick, Brendan 88, 9Fingers, Borussia and more...
97.6% chance this post will be replied to by Baldrick (source: PWC)
|
|
eireland
Ray Houghton
Joined: 12 Feb 2016
Status: Offline
Points: 4199
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: 26 May 2022 at 9:35pm |
"Weapons that can reach Russia an 'unacceptable escalation' - Lavrov"
Translation, the Russians are really scared what might happen if Ukraine get missile launchers similar to what they're already bombing the sh*t out of Ukraine with. Ukrainian allies really need to commit more artillery and start sending these launchers.
|
|
colemanY2K
Roy Keane
Fresh minty breath
Joined: 01 Mar 2010
Location: London
Status: Offline
Points: 14959
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: 26 May 2022 at 10:40pm |
eireland wrote:
"Weapons that can reach Russia an 'unacceptable escalation' - Lavrov"
Translation, the Russians are really scared what might happen if Ukraine get missile launchers similar to what they're already bombing the sh*t out of Ukraine with. Ukrainian allies really need to commit more artillery and start sending these launchers. |
i've bad news for mr lavrov...biden will sanction the delivery of those long range missile launchers next week.
...and the ukrainians are right in what they are saying in the article in that these would be a game changer seeing as the russian air force is in no fit shape to go deep into ukraine to take them out without losing a sizeable number of valuable strike aircraft.
Edited by colemanY2K - 26 May 2022 at 10:45pm
|
"One of the dominant facts in English life during the past three quarters of a century has been the decay of ability in the ruling class." Orwell, 1942.
|
|
eireland
Ray Houghton
Joined: 12 Feb 2016
Status: Offline
Points: 4199
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: 27 May 2022 at 12:59am |
colemanY2K wrote:
eireland wrote:
"Weapons that can reach Russia an 'unacceptable escalation' - Lavrov"
Translation, the Russians are really scared what might happen if Ukraine get missile launchers similar to what they're already bombing the sh*t out of Ukraine with. Ukrainian allies really need to commit more artillery and start sending these launchers. | i've bad news for mr lavrov...biden will sanction the delivery of those long range missile launchers next week.
...and the ukrainians are right in what they are saying in the article in that these would be a game changer seeing as the russian air force is in no fit shape to go deep into ukraine to take them out without losing a sizeable number of valuable strike aircraft.
|
I wish they were there already but better late than never.
|
|
eireland
Ray Houghton
Joined: 12 Feb 2016
Status: Offline
Points: 4199
|
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: 29 May 2022 at 12:15am |
The Ukrainians seem to be holding out for now and even counter attacking in the Kherson region. If they manage to hold current lines long enough for the next wave of western weapons to arrive I think the Russian offensive will fall apart.
Putin now saying Kyiv is preventing peace talks from happening. That suggests Russia wants out and Kyiv are in this for the long hall. I hope they don't concede and force the Russians out. Warms my heart to see the Ukrainians putting up a fight. Too many soup takers in this world.
|
|