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2022 World Cup - Permutations - see page 17

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Robbie Keane
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote irishmufc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Sep 2020 at 9:19pm
@Rolo

Assume we finish third in our NL group, does that make much difference as to if we finish 2nd or 4th seedings wise? 

Is it more dependant on other teams around us in different groups?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 2:03am
Originally posted by irishmufc irishmufc wrote:

@Rolo

Assume we finish third in our NL group, does that make much difference as to if we finish 2nd or 4th seedings wise? 

Is it more dependant on other teams around us in different groups?

No, it's based on FIFA rankings, not Nations League standings.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 2:18am
Seedings Update:



Slovakia drew with Israel; Slovakia drop 3.2 points.
Northern Ireland lost to Norway. Northern Ireland drop 7.6 points.
Romania beat Austria. Romania gain 7.7 points.



17 Serbia 1486.4
18 Turkey 1485.2
19 Russia 1484.3
20 Romania 1482.7
------------------------
21 Slovakia 1478.7
22 Rep of Ireland 1475.6
23 Northern Ireland 1468.4
24 Iceland 1460.2
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RKeane Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 3:11am
The Slovakia game is colossal 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote davereilly Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 8:15am
Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Seedings Update:



Slovakia drew with Israel; Slovakia drop 3.2 points.
Northern Ireland lost to Norway. Northern Ireland drop 7.6 points.
Romania beat Austria. Romania gain 7.7 points.



17 Serbia 1486.4
18 Turkey 1485.2
19 Russia 1484.3
20 Romania 1482.7
------------------------
21 Slovakia 1478.7
22 Rep of Ireland 1475.6
23 Northern Ireland 1468.4
24 Iceland 1460.2

I'm not 100% sure about that. That's using the points from before Round 1. If Round 2 is actually calculated using the updated (but unpublished) points, the table looks a little different.

14 Poland 1557.8
15 Ukraine 1550.2
16 Wales 1539.8
17 Austria 1505.9
18 Serbia 1486.0
19 Turkey 1485.0
20 Rep. Ireland 1484.7
------------------------
21 Slovakia 1483.0 
22 Russia 1479.0
23 N. Ireland 1476.0
24 Romania 1468.0
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote darmack Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 9:41am
Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Seedings Update:



Slovakia drew with Israel; Slovakia drop 3.2 points.
Northern Ireland lost to Norway. Northern Ireland drop 7.6 points.
Romania beat Austria. Romania gain 7.7 points.



17 Serbia 1486.4
18 Turkey 1485.2
19 Russia 1484.3
20 Romania 1482.7
------------------------
21 Slovakia 1478.7
22 Rep of Ireland 1475.6
23 Northern Ireland 1468.4
24 Iceland 1460.2

I'm not 100% sure about that. That's using the points from before Round 1. If Round 2 is actually calculated using the updated (but unpublished) points, the table looks a little different.

14 Poland 1557.8
15 Ukraine 1550.2
16 Wales 1539.8
17 Austria 1505.9
18 Serbia 1486.0
19 Turkey 1485.0
20 Rep. Ireland 1484.7
------------------------
21 Slovakia 1483.0 
22 Russia 1479.0
23 N. Ireland 1476.0
24 Romania 1468.0

Please remain pessimistic until further notice.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 11:46am
Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

I'm not 100% sure about that. That's using the points from before Round 1. If Round 2 is actually calculated using the updated (but unpublished) points, the table looks a little different.



You would hope that indeed they do use the updated (but unpublished) ranking points after each particular match, which would definitely lead to a different table. Im having a look at the old rankings to work out if they have done it game by game previously. I was under the impression that they were doing it round by round, but hopefully you're right, as it makes absolutely the most sense.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Cymro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 2:44pm
Originally posted by darmack darmack wrote:

Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Seedings Update:



Slovakia drew with Israel; Slovakia drop 3.2 points.
Northern Ireland lost to Norway. Northern Ireland drop 7.6 points.
Romania beat Austria. Romania gain 7.7 points.



17 Serbia 1486.4
18 Turkey 1485.2
19 Russia 1484.3
20 Romania 1482.7
------------------------
21 Slovakia 1478.7
22 Rep of Ireland 1475.6
23 Northern Ireland 1468.4
24 Iceland 1460.2

I'm not 100% sure about that. That's using the points from before Round 1. If Round 2 is actually calculated using the updated (but unpublished) points, the table looks a little different.

14 Poland 1557.8
15 Ukraine 1550.2
16 Wales 1539.8
17 Austria 1505.9
18 Serbia 1486.0
19 Turkey 1485.0
20 Rep. Ireland 1484.7
------------------------
21 Slovakia 1483.0 
22 Russia 1479.0
23 N. Ireland 1476.0
24 Romania 1468.0

Please remain pessimistic until further notice.

Was looking at this myself to scout potential opponents in the draw and this implies they do not use rankings updated on a game by game basis for points allocation:


Note that he has set out the points for the second round of matches in advance of the first round of matches being played. I don't think he'd have done that if the results of the first round would impact the points available for the second round.

So I would guess that the former table is indeed correct at present, although I am no statistician.

Any chance of Norway being in pot 2? Look a nightmare draw from pot 3 at this stage. You might even want to be in pot 3 just to avoid them!

Additionally, the table he posted seems to have Ireland gaining 0.2 points from the two games which were a draw and defeat. I don't think that would be right under any system.


Edited by Cymro - 08 Sep 2020 at 2:50pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 5:36pm
Originally posted by Cymro Cymro wrote:


Was looking at this myself to scout potential opponents in the draw and this implies they do not use rankings updated on a game by game basis for points allocation:


Note that he has set out the points for the second round of matches in advance of the first round of matches being played. I don't think he'd have done that if the results of the first round would impact the points available for the second round.

So I would guess that the former table is indeed correct at present, although I am no statistician.

Any chance of Norway being in pot 2? Look a nightmare draw from pot 3 at this stage. You might even want to be in pot 3 just to avoid them!

Additionally, the table he posted seems to have Ireland gaining 0.2 points from the two games which were a draw and defeat. I don't think that would be right under any system.

Yeah its confusing. He does imply that the 1st Round has no impact on the 2nd Round, but the FIFA rankings resource indicates that it is done after each match (which is the way it should be done!):

  • The formula for the SUM algorithm is as follows:

P = Pbefore + I (W – We)


Pbefore: Points before the match

I: importance of match


  • I= 05   Friendly matches played outside of International Match Calendar windows 

  • I= 10   Friendly matches played during International Match Calendar windows 

  • I= 15   Group phase matches of Nations League competitions

  • I= 25   Play-off and final matches of Nations League competitions

  • I= 25   Qualification matches for Confederations final competitions and for FIFA World Cup final competitions

  • I= 35 Confederation final competition matches up until the QF stage

  • I= 40 Confederation final competition matches from the QF stage onwards; all FIFA Confede-

    rations Cup matches

  • I= 50 FIFA World Cup final competition matches up until QF stage

  • I= 60 FIFA World Cup final competition matches from QF stage onwards


W: result of the match
• 1=win;0.5=draw;0=defeat

We: expected result of the match

We (10(-dr/600) 1)
With dr=difference in ratings of the two playing teams, i.e. dr = [Pbefore of Team A – Pbefore of Team B]

Example: Team A has 1300 points before the match and wins a continental qualifier against team B that has 1500 points.

For team A the formula is: P=1300+25*(1–(1/(10 exp (-(1300–1500)/600) +1))) For team B the formula is: P = 1500 + 25 * (0- (1 / 10(-(1500-1300)/600) + 1))

Thus, team A wins 17 points and has P = 1317 points after the match. Team B loses the same amount of points and thus ends up with 1483 points after the match.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 5:40pm
Basically this can be easily sorted by running a few calculations on previous rankings (but would have to go back to late 2019 as there have been no games since, not significant games anyway).

Will try do some later if I get a chance, to clear up the confusion.

So for now, just disregard my table, but not the bit about us being in a real scrap to get into the second pot of seeds!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote darmack Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 5:42pm
It used to be around the middle of the month when Fifa used to update the rankings, so maybe next week should know for definite.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Sep 2020 at 5:45pm
Originally posted by darmack darmack wrote:

It used to be around the middle of the month when Fifa used to update the rankings, so maybe next week should know for definite.


That is an easier way of finding out alright! 
But will have a look later anyway if I get a chance, at the old rankings, and run some calculations. Interested to know.


Some teething problems with the permutations thread currently so, bit like the team under the new management  LOL

But both will come good soon Clap


Edited by rolo - 08 Sep 2020 at 5:47pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote davereilly Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 2020 at 7:38am
Sorting error on my side, the points scores were right, but assigned to the wrong teams LOL

Here is the updated rankings after Round 2

16 AUT 1506
17 SRB 1486
18 TUR 1485
19 RUS 1485
20 ROU 1483
21 SVK 1479
22 IRL 1476
23 NIR 1468
24 ISL 1457
25 NOR 1452
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fozz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 2020 at 9:39am
Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Sorting error on my side, the points scores were right, but assigned to the wrong teams LOL

Here is the updated rankings after Round 2

16 AUT 1506
17 SRB 1486
18 TUR 1485
19 RUS 1485
20 ROU 1483
21 SVK 1479
22 IRL 1476
23 NIR 1468
24 ISL 1457
25 NOR 1452

Nice work.
How many more games have we to play before the pots of the WC draw are set?
Is it all 4 NL games and the one or two playoffs?

Or just the next 3-game window and then we're done?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote davereilly Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 2020 at 9:41am
Originally posted by Fozz Fozz wrote:

Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Sorting error on my side, the points scores were right, but assigned to the wrong teams LOL

Here is the updated rankings after Round 2

16 AUT 1506
17 SRB 1486
18 TUR 1485
19 RUS 1485
20 ROU 1483
21 SVK 1479
22 IRL 1476
23 NIR 1468
24 ISL 1457
25 NOR 1452

Nice work.
How many more games have we to play before the pots of the WC draw are set?
Is it all 4 NL games and the one or two playoffs?

Or just the next 3-game window and then we're done?


4 NL games, and 1 or 2 Euro Playoffs.
If we beat Slovakia we will overtake them and Romania, but Romania also have a playoff so nothing is set in stone yet.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 2020 at 12:11pm
Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Sorting error on my side, the points scores were right, but assigned to the wrong teams LOL

Here is the updated rankings after Round 2

16 AUT 1506
17 SRB 1486
18 TUR 1485
19 RUS 1485
20 ROU 1483
21 SVK 1479
22 IRL 1476
23 NIR 1468
24 ISL 1457
25 NOR 1452

So the points I had assigned were correct!?


These are the same points as I had above.

They don't do it after each particular game so?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote davereilly Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 2020 at 2:02pm
Originally posted by rolo rolo wrote:

Originally posted by davereilly davereilly wrote:

Sorting error on my side, the points scores were right, but assigned to the wrong teams LOL

Here is the updated rankings after Round 2

16 AUT 1506
17 SRB 1486
18 TUR 1485
19 RUS 1485
20 ROU 1483
21 SVK 1479
22 IRL 1476
23 NIR 1468
24 ISL 1457
25 NOR 1452

So the points I had assigned were correct!?


These are the same points as I had above.

They don't do it after each particular game so?

My numbers were a few decimals off, but close. With only two games the possible scores can't vary that much.

I also need to see when FIFA bring out their updated scores, and then work around on my sheet, depending on when exactly they round and use rounded numbers can tweek the results.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote rolo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Sep 2020 at 3:50pm
Updated (correct!) seedings for the draw:

Current seedings based on September rankings published next week. I actually had them right. One issue is Ireland are one point less than I had them. I had Ireland at 1475.6 and so marked them up to 1476 but actually I had based that on a starting point of 1486 before the games were played but they had started on 1485 point something and been marked up to 1486, so that affected the sums.


Portugal and Spain overtook Croatia. Switzerland dropped 3 places. Very tight at the bottom of Pot 1.
Could yet be a big name in Pot 2.

Luxembourg move up to Pot 4. Cyprus drop down to Pot 5.




1 Belgium 1773
2 France 1744
3 England 1664
4 Portugal 1653
5 Spain 1642
6 Croatia 1628
7 Italy 1612
8 Netherlands 1603
9 Germany 1602
10 Switzerland 1600
-----------------------
11 Denmark 1593
12 Sweden 1567
13 Poland 1558
14 Wales 1550
15 Ukraine 1539
16 Austria 1505
17 Serbia 1486
18 Turkey 1485
19 Russia 1485
20 Romania 1483
------------------------
21 Slovakia 1479
22 Rep of Ireland 1475
23 Northern Ireland 1468
24 Iceland 1457
25 Norway 1452
26 Czech Republic 1446
27 Scotland 1428
28 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1426
29 Hungary 1418
30 Greece 1413
------------------------
31 Finland 1390
32 Bulgaria 1378
33 Montenegro 1376
34 Slovenia 1368
35 North Macedonia 1351
36 Albania 1351
37 Belarus 1282
38 Georgia 1274
39 Israel 1265
40 Luxembourg 1237
---------------------------
41 Cyprus 1236
42 Armenia 1215
43 Faroe Islands 1191
44 Estonia 1188
45 Azerbaijan 1179
46 Kosovo 1167
47 Kazakhstan 1156
48 Lithuania 1093
49 Latvia 1076
50 Andorra 1076
--------------------------
51 Moldova 959
52 Liechtenstein 932
53 Malta 917
54 Gibraltar 886
55 San Marino 811
-------------------------



Edited by rolo - 10 Sep 2020 at 4:16pm
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