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Coronavirus - Remain Calm. Do Not Panic

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Robbie Keane
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baldrick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2020 at 11:59am
Originally posted by BabbsBalls BabbsBalls wrote:

Baldrick. Come on. We all see the death figures each day... 2,0,2,3,1,0,5 etc .. Those going into ICU are similar also. As well as those going out. You are dismissing facts too easily here.

I am not I am saying that the 14 day figures for cases and hospital admissions and icu admissions and deaths and comparing them over the last few months is the data that should be looked at not a daily figure.   

As Sid said knew day had huge figures although they related to a certain time previously.   As sid said it's important to follow the trends.   The lockdown was pre emptive  in my view.   It wasnt based on how bad it is now but how bad it could get if left alone.  


Edited by Baldrick - 24 Oct 2020 at 12:01pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2020 at 12:04pm
Originally posted by BabbsBalls BabbsBalls wrote:

I get that. But here the figures are not fluctuation much. It’s silly to dismiss them  
But the people who best understand the figures - because they are experts who do this for a living and have actual responsibilities as regards policy - are telling us that the figures are extremely worrying and the trend has to be reversed, because otherwise we move towards a terrible public health/health service situation

Interpretation of the figures to get them to mean something you want them to mean, but which is not the reality - is like the captain of the Titanic ignoring iceberg warnings or believing that the ship was unsinkable
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Trap junior Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2020 at 12:38pm
Ivor Cummins (The Fat Emperor) retweeting Jim Corr and Niall Boylan. 

He's in good company.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote thebronze14 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2020 at 1:27pm
Originally posted by sid waddell sid waddell wrote:

Originally posted by thebronze14 thebronze14 wrote:

They are saying today that level 5 is working but a couple of weeks ago after nearly 2 weeks in level 3 it was too early to tell if restrictions were working. With communication like this it's little wonder people have little faith in those leading the fight against this. Some will follow what is being said blindly but it is important to question what is going on as well. I'm following the restrictions but I have great reservations about what they are saying at the moment. Can see this most clearly in the school setting
See I have a problem with some of that rhetoric - particularly the bit where "some will follow what is said blindly"

It portrays people who believe there is a need for Level 5 restrictions as sheep

That's not helpful

Unfortunately I believe that many of those who "question" things are doing so from a bad faith perspective and are frequently hysterical in their rhetoric

The sports journalist Ewan MacKenna is a prominent example, David Quinn and Ciara Kelly would be other examples, and this Ivor Cummins chap is definitely another 

I'm all for good faith questioning however and there is certainly much scope for that

Others may disagree with this but that's what I see and I can only give my opinion

Do I believe there is a need for Level 5 restrictions? Yes, because NPHET say so and I trust them - they are the people best placed to know

Do I think NPHET are infallible? No, certainly not

The problem I think is that a lot of the criticism of NPHET is being done in a clear bad faith manner, ascribing cynical motives to them that simply aren't there

Didn't mean that at all, apologies if it sounded that way. I just feel that it is good that people question decisions that are made and not to follow everything blindly. I didn't mean that in relation to just level 5, I mean with Government decision making in general.

I agree with the names you mentioned and an ever growing cohort in the media that are too hysterical. There are people in both sides of the spectrum who are far too hysterical and shoot down others opinions which I find most unhelpful.

Most rational people are just looking for answers to find some glimmer of hope in these extraordinary times.

I find the eulogising in the media of Tony Holohan really sickening though, saying he's a bigger celebrity than Bruce Springsteen etc in IT today. This sort of thing needs to stop. Nearly reminds you of the Cult Of Personality around John Delaney. It's not his doing of course but the media love to have this sort of figure.

Bit of a rant in the end but I'm not getting at people who agree we are in Level 5 lockdown. I disagree with it as I felt we appeared to be getting to grips with it on level 3 and it will kill so many businesses who have adhered perfectly, however, I see the reasons for going in this direction and wouldn't sneer at people who think it's the right call. They may be right or wrong, no one knows. However, my trust in those making the decisions has eroded over time during the pandemic 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2020 at 3:31pm
Originally posted by thebronze14 thebronze14 wrote:

Originally posted by sid waddell sid waddell wrote:

Originally posted by thebronze14 thebronze14 wrote:

They are saying today that level 5 is working but a couple of weeks ago after nearly 2 weeks in level 3 it was too early to tell if restrictions were working. With communication like this it's little wonder people have little faith in those leading the fight against this. Some will follow what is being said blindly but it is important to question what is going on as well. I'm following the restrictions but I have great reservations about what they are saying at the moment. Can see this most clearly in the school setting
See I have a problem with some of that rhetoric - particularly the bit where "some will follow what is said blindly"

It portrays people who believe there is a need for Level 5 restrictions as sheep

That's not helpful

Unfortunately I believe that many of those who "question" things are doing so from a bad faith perspective and are frequently hysterical in their rhetoric

The sports journalist Ewan MacKenna is a prominent example, David Quinn and Ciara Kelly would be other examples, and this Ivor Cummins chap is definitely another 

I'm all for good faith questioning however and there is certainly much scope for that

Others may disagree with this but that's what I see and I can only give my opinion

Do I believe there is a need for Level 5 restrictions? Yes, because NPHET say so and I trust them - they are the people best placed to know

Do I think NPHET are infallible? No, certainly not

The problem I think is that a lot of the criticism of NPHET is being done in a clear bad faith manner, ascribing cynical motives to them that simply aren't there

Didn't mean that at all, apologies if it sounded that way. I just feel that it is good that people question decisions that are made and not to follow everything blindly. I didn't mean that in relation to just level 5, I mean with Government decision making in general.

I agree with the names you mentioned and an ever growing cohort in the media that are too hysterical. There are people in both sides of the spectrum who are far too hysterical and shoot down others opinions which I find most unhelpful.

Most rational people are just looking for answers to find some glimmer of hope in these extraordinary times.

I find the eulogising in the media of Tony Holohan really sickening though, saying he's a bigger celebrity than Bruce Springsteen etc in IT today. This sort of thing needs to stop. Nearly reminds you of the Cult Of Personality around John Delaney. It's not his doing of course but the media love to have this sort of figure.

Bit of a rant in the end but I'm not getting at people who agree we are in Level 5 lockdown. I disagree with it as I felt we appeared to be getting to grips with it on level 3 and it will kill so many businesses who have adhered perfectly, however, I see the reasons for going in this direction and wouldn't sneer at people who think it's the right call. They may be right or wrong, no one knows. However, my trust in those making the decisions has eroded over time during the pandemic 
Again I've no problem with good faith questioning - in fact it's absolutely essential - that's how you arrive at better policy

I also think the discussion surrounding Tony Holohan is quite toxic - in different directions actually

Yes there is somewhat of a cult of personality around Holohan and that's ludicrous - it's saviour syndrome - the phenomenon where people who are scared of a problem and feel powerless to deal with it invest almost supernatural powers in somebody that this person clearly does not have - they are portrayed as a saviour

But also the ultra cynical hate and negativity towards him him out there, and the portrayal of him as "criminal" is really unhelpful and disgraceful

The bottom line is that, while far from infallible, I do trust NPHET's judgement as regards the numbers - and even on a lay person's basic understanding of things, they appear to be correct in their prescription

Unfortunately decades of ideology has left us with very low ICU capacity in European terms and this has to be uppermost in the minds of policy makers at the moment

I fully understand that most people are worried for their futures - I am too - I am worried about the future of society and how we deal with this - and this is perfectly rational

But easy answers will not work - and that includes endless lockdown, which to some people does appear to look like an easy answer

Easy answers certainly include "open it up", "it's all bullsh*t", this kind of stuff, which needs to left on the barstool

My main problem with the government response is the failure of track and trace or find, test, trace, isolate, or whatever you call it - and therefore the lack of a long term strategy - this problem is far from unique to Ireland however

I believe it is likely the result of management ideology and also due to decades of the mantra of "efficiency" and "leanness", which doesn't work

Or perhaps, they just did not take the threat seriously enough during the summer, I think that's probably not the case but I would not entirely dismiss that notion

I think there's room for a lot of good faith criticism here - the strategy in this area has clearly failed

We need a long term strategy - but even then there's no guarantee that a long term strategy will work as people desire

To go back to "saviour syndrome", I believe there's a natural human inclination to want to believe there are easy answers to very complex problems, and this is what leads people both to having "certainty" and being dogmatic in terms of opinion, and also to put their trust in grifters who peddle those easy answers

So on one side you have people classing Holohan as a saviour, and then on the other, painting anybody who offers an easy answer, like Sunetra Gupta or Martin Feeley or Ivor Cummins, as saviours

Health workers were portrayed as saviours and superheroes, Leo Varadkar referred to superheroes

You see it a lot in US politics as well - a lot of people bought into the fantasy that Robert Mueller was a "saviour" when he clearly was not, then on the other side you have people that truly believe Trump is a saviour that will defeat whatever imagined evil enemy it is that Trump supporters are obsessed by

QAnon is the ultimate "saviour syndrome" cult

Cults are very unhelpful in politics or serious current affairs and social media discourse and indeed discourse everywhere is increasingly trending towards cultism











Edited by sid waddell - 24 Oct 2020 at 3:37pm
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They finally did it man... They killed my f**kin' car...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote planning Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Oct 2020 at 11:59pm
Originally posted by seanyshuffler seanyshuffler wrote:

How dangerous is covid compared to the common flu? There's an estimate about how many people have died of covid and probably the same for common flu. We're testing for covid globally so have a good estimate of how many people.have gotten it but probably not the same for seasonal flu.

Is covid more contagious then seasonal flu? I'd say so. Is it more deadly though? That's what I'm not so sure about. 

The average amount of deaths per day is approx. 3 deaths in a population of 5mn. On the day the latest restrictions were announced, there was 0 Deaths. That's the mortality rate we're wrecking our country's economy for, atm. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Trap junior Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2020 at 12:07am
Yeah and what would the death rate be if there was normality and we never had one restriction in place?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JohnSwift Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2020 at 7:37am
At this stage I think it is up to individuals to exercise their own judgement on what they do. I’m happy wearing a mask, washing my hands and socially distancing in public, but that’s as far as I’m willing to go. Spent the entirety of the first lockdown at home, whereas my intention is to be out and about and continue as normal now regardless of the level being imposed. A lot of people I know would feel the same; a group of six of us met up on Friday night for drinks at one of the lads houses. The fear factor is gone. People realise this isn’t the plague and that the number of deaths and ICU admissions is very low. I think the current level 5 restrictions will have limited impact on case numbers, but I would question whether the word “case” is even appropriate given the fact that a lot of people don’t suffer any effects and the testing itself isn’t exactly foolproof.



Edited by JohnSwift - 25 Oct 2020 at 9:13am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabbsBalls Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2020 at 10:01am
Agreed John. There could be 5,000 cases in a day and the same amount of deaths and hospital admissions. Death and hospital admissions are all you need know. The daily case number only serve to put the sh*ts into people. 
l hear you are a racist now, father ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabbsBalls Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2020 at 10:03am
Originally posted by BabbsBalls BabbsBalls wrote:

Agreed John although personally I wouldn’t br comfortable having drinks with a gang of people. 

There could be 5,000 cases in a day and the same amount of deaths and hospital admissions as if there were 1000 cases. Death and hospital admissions are all you need know. The daily case number only serve to put the sh*ts into people. 
l hear you are a racist now, father ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2020 at 10:06am
Originally posted by JohnSwift JohnSwift wrote:

At this stage I think it is up to individuals to exercise their own judgement on what they do. I’m happy wearing a mask, washing my hands and socially distancing in public, but that’s as far as I’m willing to go. Spent the entirety of the first lockdown at home, whereas my intention is to be out and about and continue as normal now regardless of the level being imposed. A lot of people I know would feel the same; a group of six of us met up on Friday night for drinks at one of the lads houses. The fear factor is gone. People realise this isn’t the plague and that the number of deaths and ICU admissions is very low. I think the current level 5 restrictions will have limited impact on case numbers, but I would question whether the word “case” is even appropriate given the fact that a lot of people don’t suffer any effects and the testing itself isn’t exactly foolproof.


Originally posted by BabbsBalls BabbsBalls wrote:

Agreed John. There could be 5,000 cases in a day and the same amount of deaths and hospital admissions. Death and hospital admissions are all you need know. The daily case number only serve to put the sh*ts into people. 

Our INTERNET experts have spoken

No policy recommendations from them however except a recommendation to deliberately break the guidelines
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MayoMark Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2020 at 10:09am
When cases rise so do hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths. It's not difficult lads ffs. 
They finally did it man... They killed my f**kin' car...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2020 at 10:14am
Originally posted by MayoMark MayoMark wrote:

When cases rise so do hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths. It's not difficult lads ffs. 
There's a phrase beloved of right-wing "libertarians", "a rising tide lifts all boats"

But it doesn't really work very well in economics

However one instance where it most certainly does apply is Covid

Where the same people who love to use it in economic terms suddenly dismiss it completely because it contradicts their confirmation biases
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabbsBalls Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2020 at 10:16am
There you go calling people experts because it doesn’t suit your narrative Sid. 

For the last time I’m no expert nor claim to be. I’m just a lad with an opinion. 
l hear you are a racist now, father ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2020 at 10:21am
Originally posted by BabbsBalls BabbsBalls wrote:

There you go calling people experts because it doesn’t suit your narrative Sid. 

For the last time I’m no expert nor claim to be. I’m just a lad with an opinion. 
I form my opinions from reality

I don't fit reality to conform with my opinions

Many people do not do this
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2020 at 10:27am
Babbs when you say "let people make their own decisions", what does this mean in policy terms

Does it mean lift all restrictions

Does it mean lift some restrictions

If so, what

Does it mean no masks in shops

Does it mean pubs open

If it means pubs open, does it mean at full capacity

What exactly does it mean

There's a phenomenon out there at the moment, and you and John Swift above are part of it, where people throw out vague anti-restrictions inanities, but when asked to clarify what they mean, or asked what these inanities mean in terms of what they want as a policy, they never elaborate

If you're going to throw out opinions, you have to back them up in terms of what you actually want in terms of policy and why

Vague inanities are not good enough
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sid waddell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Oct 2020 at 10:30am
Also, why is it that people who engage in vague anti-restrictions inanities pretty much never argue in favour of a long term suppression strategy

If that is not the case, where are these arguments

It just seems to be vague rhetoric based on US right-wing "libertarian" terminology

It is a Thatcherite argument against any form of social solidarity or idea of society
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