Coronavirus - Remain Calm. Do Not Panic

We've had restrictions of one form or another since last March

Level 2 restrictions were clearly not adequate because the virus spread was constantly growing

That was not a sustainable situation because ultimately it does lead to overwhelming of the health service

It would appear that you believe it was a sustainable situation

Is this the case?

Possibly. The number of those going into ICU was nearly identical to the number of those leaving it..

See I have a problem with some of that rhetoric - particularly the bit where "some will follow what is said blindly"

It portrays people who believe there is a need for Level 5 restrictions as sheep

That's not helpful

Unfortunately I believe that many of those who "question" things are doing so from a bad faith perspective and are frequently hysterical in their rhetoric

The sports journalist Ewan MacKenna is a prominent example, David Quinn and Ciara Kelly would be other examples, and this Ivor Cummins chap is definitely another 

I'm all for good faith questioning however and there is certainly much scope for that

Others may disagree with this but that's what I see and I can only give my opinion

Do I believe there is a need for Level 5 restrictions? Yes, because NPHET say so and I trust them - they are the people best placed to know

Do I think NPHET are infallible? No, certainly not

The problem I think is that a lot of the criticism of NPHET is being done in a clear bad faith manner, ascribing cynical motives to them that simply aren't there

We do not have many ICU beds in this country - I believe we have only something like 260/270 odd and very few of those are currently spare, something like 30 odd

You can probably ramp up capacity somewhat in an emergency situation but not by a huge amount

If 3 people are going into ICU per day, that's 21 a week

This is only October 24th and the natural tendency with respiratory illnesses seems to be that they spread much more during the winter because people are indoors more

So there's plenty of reason to think that what is happening at the moment may only be the tip of rather large iceberg

Level 5 is not ideal for sure but yes, I do believe it's necessary for at least the next six weeks because the alternative to me would seem to be untenable

The problem as I see it is that the lack of a longer term suppression strategy and that's something that is urgently required 

Whether it is achievable or not I don't know

What I would like to know is what your previous posts mean in practice as regards what restrictions or lack of restrictions you would like to see - and what that means in practice

Like, if it was up to you, would pubs be open, or cinemas, and theatres etc., would crowds be allowed at football matches and if so how many - or should public transport capacity be upped to 100% again, what is your view on masks in shops etc.

And then what would the implications of that be

But the number of cases was exploding under Level 2 restrictions - we went from 10 odd cases a day to over a thousand in a couple of months - so the more the number of cases grows, the more people go into hospital and into ICU

You cannot let this situation continue indefinitely - it's simple maths

And if the health service is overwhelmed that has severe implications for everybody who needs hospital treatment - whether it is for Covid or for something else

Note that I am not saying there are not currently issues as regards people who have non-Covid medical problems - but if you let the health service be overwhelmed, those problems will only be amplified

For arguments sake, if the common flue just arrived in China last year and the rest of the world shortly after it’s very likely we would do the exact same thing. RTE giving us daily figures on flue cases, deaths, hospital admissions etc. . A flue tracing app for everyone. It’s not too far fetched. Last year millions died from flue, even with a vaccine available. Point being, covid is new so people are sh*tting the bed. I just think its quite possible that it’s not deadly enough to send everyone home , peoples business’s into ruin and destroy economies worldwide. 

Then you use the average daily figure over a 14 day period.