Coronavirus - Remain Calm. Do Not Panic |
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sid waddell
Roy Keane On a dark desert highway Joined: 20 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 12173 |
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We've had restrictions of one form or another since last March Level 2 restrictions were clearly not adequate because the virus spread was constantly growing That was not a sustainable situation because ultimately it does lead to overwhelming of the health service It would appear that you believe it was a sustainable situation Is this the case?
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BabbsBalls
Moderator Group Joined: 12 Feb 2009 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 10223 |
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Absolutely. My wife is a primary teacher so I know exactly what you mean.
One thing that is certain is that the health service has needed more resources for god knows how long. And that failing has had a huge impact on governmental policies during the covid situation, possibly the biggest as they are terrified of there not being enough ICU beds.
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l hear you are a racist now, father ?
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BabbsBalls
Moderator Group Joined: 12 Feb 2009 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 10223 |
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Possibly. The number of those going into ICU was nearly identical to the number of those leaving it..
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l hear you are a racist now, father ?
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Baldrick
Robbie Keane Peyton-tly Pedantic Joined: 18 Sep 2008 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 32741 |
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Social media always has its cranks and loopers. What I am baffled at is that when it comes to this virus many sensible sound people have picked a side and are going with it. There doesn't seem to much reasonable rational discussion that maybe a very balanced nuanced approach is the way forward. If you say Tony H is doing a good job you get attacked if you say gyms should maybe be open you get attacked etc. ETC. One thing I learned early on is sometimes you have 3 options a sh*t option and even sh*tter option and the sh*ttiest options Many smart people even on prime time the other night aren't honest and they try to portray it as their good option (whatever that may be and then two sh*t options which they argue against) It's this idea that there are easy answers or that there is an option or a route that is not a disaster. Whatever option that gets chosen will be able to be ripped to shreds by the other side. Unfortunately not enough people realise that and that us the case for people who want greater restrictions and less restrictions.
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AKA pedantic kunt
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sid waddell
Roy Keane On a dark desert highway Joined: 20 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 12173 |
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See I have a problem with some of that rhetoric - particularly the bit where "some will follow what is said blindly" It portrays people who believe there is a need for Level 5 restrictions as sheep That's not helpful Unfortunately I believe that many of those who "question" things are doing so from a bad faith perspective and are frequently hysterical in their rhetoric The sports journalist Ewan MacKenna is a prominent example, David Quinn and Ciara Kelly would be other examples, and this Ivor Cummins chap is definitely another I'm all for good faith questioning however and there is certainly much scope for that Others may disagree with this but that's what I see and I can only give my opinion Do I believe there is a need for Level 5 restrictions? Yes, because NPHET say so and I trust them - they are the people best placed to know Do I think NPHET are infallible? No, certainly not The problem I think is that a lot of the criticism of NPHET is being done in a clear bad faith manner, ascribing cynical motives to them that simply aren't there
Edited by sid waddell - 24 Oct 2020 at 10:46am |
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BabbsBalls
Moderator Group Joined: 12 Feb 2009 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 10223 |
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Sid. With only 3 people going into ICU do you think it’s a good idea to stay at level 5 for another month and a half ?
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l hear you are a racist now, father ?
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sid waddell
Roy Keane On a dark desert highway Joined: 20 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 12173 |
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We do not have many ICU beds in this country - I believe we have only something like 260/270 odd and very few of those are currently spare, something like 30 odd You can probably ramp up capacity somewhat in an emergency situation but not by a huge amount If 3 people are going into ICU per day, that's 21 a week This is only October 24th and the natural tendency with respiratory illnesses seems to be that they spread much more during the winter because people are indoors more So there's plenty of reason to think that what is happening at the moment may only be the tip of rather large iceberg Level 5 is not ideal for sure but yes, I do believe it's necessary for at least the next six weeks because the alternative to me would seem to be untenable The problem as I see it is that the lack of a longer term suppression strategy and that's something that is urgently required Whether it is achievable or not I don't know What I would like to know is what your previous posts mean in practice as regards what restrictions or lack of restrictions you would like to see - and what that means in practice Like, if it was up to you, would pubs be open, or cinemas, and theatres etc., would crowds be allowed at football matches and if so how many - or should public transport capacity be upped to 100% again, what is your view on masks in shops etc. And then what would the implications of that be |
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Baldrick
Robbie Keane Peyton-tly Pedantic Joined: 18 Sep 2008 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 32741 |
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1 day stats are no place to build an argument. 14 day stats are what matters whether that is icu admissions or hospital admissions or cases.
May be an argument for 7 day if they were rising very sharply so you can act quickly. But esp on the downslide I wouldnt be jumping to anything beyond a 14 day stat
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AKA pedantic kunt
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sid waddell
Roy Keane On a dark desert highway Joined: 20 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 12173 |
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But the number of cases was exploding under Level 2 restrictions - we went from 10 odd cases a day to over a thousand in a couple of months - so the more the number of cases grows, the more people go into hospital and into ICU You cannot let this situation continue indefinitely - it's simple maths And if the health service is overwhelmed that has severe implications for everybody who needs hospital treatment - whether it is for Covid or for something else Note that I am not saying there are not currently issues as regards people who have non-Covid medical problems - but if you let the health service be overwhelmed, those problems will only be amplified
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sid waddell
Roy Keane On a dark desert highway Joined: 20 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 12173 |
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I agree with this, I think there has been far too much conclusion jumping and over the top social media rhetoric based on one day figures, the trends are the important thing
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BabbsBalls
Moderator Group Joined: 12 Feb 2009 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 10223 |
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True. I agreed with the lockdown in March obviously as it was new to everyone. I just think it’s right to question how deadly this virus actually is (cue figures from France , USA).
For arguments sake, if the common flue just arrived in China last year and the rest of the world shortly after it’s very likely we would do the exact same thing. RTE giving us daily figures on flue cases, deaths, hospital admissions etc. . A flue tracing app for everyone. It’s not too far fetched. Last year millions died from flue, even with a vaccine available. Point being, covid is new so people are sh*tting the bed. I just think its quite possible that it’s not deadly enough to send everyone home , peoples business’s into ruin and destroy economies worldwide.
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l hear you are a racist now, father ?
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BabbsBalls
Moderator Group Joined: 12 Feb 2009 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 10223 |
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Not if the figures are similar everyday.
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l hear you are a racist now, father ?
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Baldrick
Robbie Keane Peyton-tly Pedantic Joined: 18 Sep 2008 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 32741 |
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Then you use the average daily figure over a 14 day period.
Edited by Baldrick - 24 Oct 2020 at 11:38am |
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AKA pedantic kunt
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sid waddell
Roy Keane On a dark desert highway Joined: 20 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 12173 |
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Figures from France and the US are very relevant though There has been no flu season in the US anyway that has been remotely comparable to Covid in terms of deaths - and with flu seasons we don't shut down - so the spread and how it works through populations is not comparable either Unfortunately we do not have any real empirical evidence of what would happen if people behave as normal in a Covid situation - because every country has employed some form of restrictions - but there's every reason to think it would be pretty devastating for societies One thing I've consistently said all through this is that public health and economic health are not in opposition to each other - they are complementary, yet still the narrative has persisted that they are in opposition Yes of course Covid being new and the fact there is no reliable treatment for it is a key factor here - we're still dealing with a far from entirely known quantity There's more than enough evidence to suggest that long Covid is a serious problem Nobody wants Level 5 - but some of us - most of us I think - accept it is necessary |
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BabbsBalls
Moderator Group Joined: 12 Feb 2009 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 10223 |
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Baldrick. Come on. We all see the death figures each day... 2,0,2,3,1,0,5 etc .. Those going into ICU are similar also. As well as those going out. You are dismissing facts too easily here.
Edited by BabbsBalls - 24 Oct 2020 at 11:51am |
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l hear you are a racist now, father ?
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sid waddell
Roy Keane On a dark desert highway Joined: 20 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 12173 |
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Relying on daily figures is a bit like saying that you get snow on a particular day, so global warming is therefore not happening
The nature of daily figures is that they bob up and down, like the sea The trend is the important thing |
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BabbsBalls
Moderator Group Joined: 12 Feb 2009 Location: Ireland Status: Offline Points: 10223 |
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I get that. But here the figures are not fluctuation much. It’s silly to dismiss them
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l hear you are a racist now, father ?
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sid waddell
Roy Keane On a dark desert highway Joined: 20 Nov 2009 Status: Offline Points: 12173 |
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Well there were 13 deaths the other day and 7 another day The death figures are going up week on week and the case figures are going up week on week You can't let that continue indefinitely because the health service would end up being totally overwhelmed which has terrible implications for society, and would spread absolute panic Like, on an individual level, how would we feel if we knew that the health service had been completely overwhelmed and there was no guarantee we'd be seen to if we needed it And it wouldn't be a typical winter situation like we talk about each year, it would be way more serious than that The only option would be to not get ill, and in my view that's not an option we can choose as a society
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