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Coronavirus - Remain Calm. Do Not Panic
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Roy Keane
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Originally posted by t_rAndy t_rAndy wrote:

It's going to be interesting to see what happens next week. I just can't see the numbers coming below 100 when you have:
(a) Construction and other work places still open
(b) schools and college in full swing.

Even if they are doing well with measures, it is ultimately people mixing and the virus is spread easily between people. 

We also have to contend with a tired public. Certain members of the public and I would say large parts of certain communities, do not give a sh*t and will continue to not follow guidelines.

So for me the question is really what are we trying to achieve. We will never get it to zero, even if we do with a hard lock down, the numbers will just creep back up, as we see in Australia they are now starting to get cases again in a region and had to lockdown again. Is that the way we want to go? Maybe, but then we should make that plan clear. 

Level 3 with household bans is for me the best way to keep things ticking over while keeping numbers stable. 

It was said on here last night but that's the crucial problem. For all the levels that NPHET recommend, there is no target or end game behind any of them. 

There's a serious lack of leadership in government, so it's no wonder people are getting sick of being treated like bold children whenever scenes like the most recent video in town arise.
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Originally posted by MayoMark MayoMark wrote:

I wonder when can we expect the first batch of vaccines to be administered to health care workers, other frontline workers and vulnerable people? Looking at the numbers Ireland have access to, we will have more than enough, but it depends when they are produced.

You'd also think that more of these vaccines will be approved soon, given that the technology used is very similar.
 
Will any vaccines be produced here? Just asking given all the big Pharma in Ireland.
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There was thousands at the Blackrock market on Sunday. There wasn't enough room to be two meters apart from anyone.
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I wonder when can we expect the first batch of vaccines to be administered to health care workers, other frontline workers and vulnerable people? Looking at the numbers Ireland have access to, we will have more than enough, but it depends when they are produced.

You'd also think that more of these vaccines will be approved soon, given that the technology used is very similar.
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It's going to be interesting to see what happens next week. I just can't see the numbers coming below 100 when you have:
(a) Construction and other work places still open
(b) schools and college in full swing.

Even if they are doing well with measures, it is ultimately people mixing and the virus is spread easily between people. 

We also have to contend with a tired public. Certain members of the public and I would say large parts of certain communities, do not give a sh*t and will continue to not follow guidelines.

So for me the question is really what are we trying to achieve. We will never get it to zero, even if we do with a hard lock down, the numbers will just creep back up, as we see in Australia they are now starting to get cases again in a region and had to lockdown again. Is that the way we want to go? Maybe, but then we should make that plan clear. 

Level 3 with household bans is for me the best way to keep things ticking over while keeping numbers stable. 
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Roy Keane
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Originally posted by Croftman Croftman wrote:

Originally posted by 9fingers 9fingers wrote:

Prof Luke O Neill was on tv yesterday saying the upward curve was probably down to Halloween & a lot of people mixing, albeit outside. He was hopefull it was only a temporary spike 
If he's right and it was down to one night mainly, you'd wonder how big is the spike going to be after Christmas week?

If it's the interview I saw, they didn't really have any supporting evidence to back this up.
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Originally posted by Baldrick Baldrick wrote:

babbs just because there is correlation it does not mean there is causation.  It’s basic Science 101.  There has to be a proven link that x causes y to happen.   Not just that the two things appear to be linked and they happen at the same time.  It may provoke one to look into it, but in itself is not a fact that the opening of the schools is the cause in rising cases or at least the flattening of the decrease.  

I really hope the teachers who you are talking to are not science or maths teachers 
Yeah babbs your point seems to be that the cases go down when the schools are closed (eg midterm, summer).

But the we entered lockdown in the midterm, so gyms, pubs etc could have accounted for that drop, and cases dropped worldwide during the summer, theory being that this thrives in winter weather rather than summer weather.

I don't disagree that schools cause spreading, but it's not like shutting the schools would get us to 50 cases a week.
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Originally posted by 9fingers 9fingers wrote:

Prof Luke O Neill was on tv yesterday saying the upward curve was probably down to Halloween & a lot of people mixing, albeit outside. He was hopefull it was only a temporary spike 
If he's right and it was down to one night mainly, you'd wonder how big is the spike going to be after Christmas week?
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Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1028/1174484-irish-schools-covid/

Numbers seem quite low to me.

Not sure if there are more accurate figures.






Reports there for the last 4 weeks. Schools are the biggest cluster behind private home (which are disproportionately higher than any other potential cluster, which makes me question how they categorise private household).

Also, the last link gives a full breakdown for the last 2 weeks. Page 8 table 5 gives the breakdown of ages. Nearly 900 cases for the 5-18 age range over the last 2 weeks.
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The notion that Covid spreads in schools seems fairly uncontroversial to me

Covid spreads through human interaction

This is not a criticism of the schools

Kids being in school equals prolonged human interaction

It's axiomatic

Same reason pubs are a petri dish for virus spread
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Originally posted by Zinedine Kilbane 110 Zinedine Kilbane 110 wrote:

Originally posted by Dugs Dugs wrote:

how exactly does a takeaway pint work? if your outside a pub do you have to queue to go in and order it or is there someone at the door of the pub taking orders and going in and getting them? i haven't seen this in action.

My local you have to call and pay over the phone and collect.
Even if you are just walking pass, you can’t order at the door... you must call them over the phone (even at the door) and do it that way! 


aah right i see. i don't see too much wrong with the idea in theory. i suppose in the large cities its the people hanging around and drinking large amounts in groups is where it hits a snag.
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babbs just because there is correlation it does not mean there is causation.  It’s basic Science 101.  There has to be a proven link that x causes y to happen.   Not just that the two things appear to be linked and they happen at the same time.  It may provoke one to look into it, but in itself is not a fact that the opening of the schools is the cause in rising cases or at least the flattening of the decrease.  

I really hope the teachers who you are talking to are not science or maths teachers 


Edited by Baldrick - 18 Nov 2020 at 10:40am
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Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

Originally posted by BabbsBalls BabbsBalls wrote:

Originally posted by horsebox horsebox wrote:

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1028/1174484-irish-schools-covid/

Numbers seem quite low to me.

Not sure if there are more accurate figures.


You disagree based on that article ? 


I think there will be active cases in any environment with close contact.

In relation to schools they have tried to circumvent the spread of the virus with the introduction of pods etc and adhering to government guidelines.

The numbers in schools appear to be quite low.

Schools are doing all they can of course. Are they adhering to government guidelines? The 2m rule is impossible to adhere to, no matter how hard they try.
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Originally posted by BabbsBalls BabbsBalls wrote:

Originally posted by McG McG wrote:

You were steadfast in saying it is absolutely spreading in schools and now it's maybe a coincidence.

Yes. I think you would be silly to think it’s not spreading in schools. That’s my take on it. What’s yours ? We rarely know with you as your posts are usually sit on the fence stuff with nice words to make you seem smart.

I seem to have unintentionally hit a nerve and you attack my intelligence LOLLOL. f**king hell. I just stated the obvious. I asked your opinion because like i said, i hadnt dug deep into the numbers. Yet you appeared so resolute in your thinking but when asked to back it up you asked us to go get our own number and maybe it could be a coincidence.

Check yourself in the mirror there Babbs ffs. 
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Originally posted by McG McG wrote:

You were steadfast in saying it is absolutely spreading in schools and now it's maybe a coincidence.

Yes. I think you would be silly to think it’s not spreading in schools. That’s my take on it. What’s yours ? We rarely know with you as your posts are usually sit on the fence stuff with nice words to make you seem smart.
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Sounds like there's anecdotes and theories to back up every argument at the moment.
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Prof Luke O Neill was on tv yesterday saying the upward curve was probably down to Halloween & a lot of people mixing, albeit outside. He was hopefull it was only a temporary spike 
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I think the increase in case numbers that coincided with the reopening of schools is a consequence of the reopening and not direct transmissions in school settings themselves. There were a lot of communion and confirmations held in September which had been deferred from the spring and resulted in large family get togethers and parties. I think these social gatherings were one of the main catalysts of the second wave. 
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